Climate Change and Ozone Observation Analysis

Dr. Konstantin Vinnikov, Acting State Climatologist for Maryland

Prof. Russell Dickerson, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science

University of Maryland at College Park, MD

Progress Report to MDE

June 17, 2008

New finding:Significant Long-Term Changes in Summer Season Precipitation and

Potomac River Runoff

• Climatic records for 1985-2007 reveal noticeable decreasing of summer (June-July-August) and February precipitation at Maryland.

• Analogous, but relatively much larger decreasing of Potomac river runoff is found in hydrological record.

• Should these observed changes in water resources of Maryland be attributed to global warming? This should be studied.

• Can these changes in water resources of Maryland be extrapolated in future? This should be studied.

BELTSVILLE, MD

Analysis of Ozone and Air Temperature Hourly Observation

1989-2007

Beltsville, MDDays number with Ozone concentration ≥ 85 ppb

J F M A M J J A S O N D

1989 0 0 0 1 6 9 13 10 5 2 0 0

1990 0 0 0 - 1 14 13 12 4 0 0 0

1991 0 0 0 1 8 15 - 16 7 - 0 0

1992 - 0 0 0 3 7 8 8 1 0 0 0

1993 0 0 0 0 8 9 12 16 6 0 0 0

1994 0 0 0 2 6 16 13 6 3 0 0 0

1995 0 0 2 0 2 6 12 12 4 - - -

1996 - - - - - - 9 9 1 0 - 0

1997 0 0 0 0 1 8 16 - - 4 - 0

1998 0 0 0 0 8 - 13 8 11 0 0 0

1999 0 0 0 0 5 6 18 17 1 1 0 0

2000 0 0 0 0 5 8 4 0 2 0 0 0

2001 0 0 0 - 7 12 5 7 0 0 0 0

2002 0 0 0 0 1 10 11 14 1 0 0 0

2003 0 0 0 2 0 4 5 3 - 0 - -

2004 - - 0 1 5 1 4 3 0 0 0 0

2005 0 0 0 2 - 2 - 8 - - 0 0

2006 0 0 0 - 3 5 7 9 0 0 0 0

2007 0 0 0 0 4 6 5 10 0 0 0 -

Beltsville, MDDays number with Ozone concentration ≥ 75 ppb

J F M A M J J A S O N D

1989 0 0 0 4 9 13 20 16 6 5 0 0

1990 0 0 0 - 4 20 17 16 6 1 0 0

1991 0 0 0 5 15 18 - 17 9 - 0 0

1992 - 0 0 0 5 15 14 12 4 0 0 0

1993 0 0 1 2 12 17 21 24 7 0 0 0

1994 0 0 0 4 8 19 17 15 4 0 0 0

1995 0 0 3 3 7 10 21 13 7 - - -

1996 - - - - - - 12 18 3 0 - 0

1997 0 0 0 1 3 12 18 - - 6 - 0

1998 0 0 1 0 11 - 18 11 16 0 0 0

1999 0 0 0 1 6 11 20 20 4 1 0 0

2000 0 0 0 1 11 9 10 5 2 0 0 0

2001 0 0 0 - 8 16 9 17 2 2 0 0

2002 0 0 0 1 1 16 16 17 7 0 0 0

2003 0 0 0 4 0 8 7 9 - 0 - -

2004 - - 1 5 8 8 8 6 2 0 0 0

2005 0 0 0 4 - 8 - 11 - - 0 0

2006 0 0 1 - 6 14 15 13 1 0 0 0

2007 0 0 0 1 9 12 11 12 7 1 0 -

Year Dayswithobserv.

Dayswithevent

Number of the events with the length ≥ N DaysN

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

1989 153 64 24 14 9 8 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1990 146 63 23 17 10 7 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1991 145 78 21 17 15 10 7 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0

1992 149 50 22 11 8 4 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1993 153 81 27 17 12 6 4 4 4 2 2 1 1 1 0 0

1994 153 63 26 14 9 5 4 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

1995 151 58 21 11 9 6 4 2 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0

1996 92 33 12 10 5 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1997 118 45 15 11 9 4 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

1998 143 61 19 13 8 6 5 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0

1999 153 61 23 13 10 8 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2000 153 37 19 10 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2001 152 52 20 10 7 6 5 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

2002 153 57 23 11 7 6 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2003 143 24 14 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2004 151 32 22 8 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2005 123 33 16 11 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2006 151 49 19 11 7 5 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

2007 150 51 20 14 8 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

BELTSVILLE, MD. Ozone season: May to September Number of events with daily one hour max OZONE is equal or above 75 ppb

Year Dayswithobserv.

Dayswithevent

Number of the events with the length ≥ N DaysN

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

1989 153 43 16 12 9 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1990 146 44 23 10 6 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1991 145 63 24 17 10 5 3 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0

1992 149 27 19 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1993 153 51 22 14 6 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1994 153 44 24 11 4 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1995 151 36 17 10 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1996 92 19 11 6 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1997 118 33 16 8 6 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1998 143 42 18 13 7 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1999 153 47 17 10 9 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2000 153 19 10 6 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2001 152 31 12 7 5 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2002 153 37 13 8 6 5 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2003 143 12 9 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2004 151 13 10 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2005 123 17 9 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2006 151 24 13 9 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2007 150 25 14 7 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

BELTSVILLE, MD. Ozone season: May to September Number of events with daily one hour max OZONE is equal or above 85 ppb

• Significant change in Ozone concentration statistics is observed after NOx SIP Call.

• Change in climatic regime of air temperature accompanies observed change in Ozone concentration.

• The observed change in air temperature exceeds global warming signal and could be caused by decreasing of PM2.5