climate change and sustainable agricultural intensification - mark new
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Presentation by Mark New, CCAFS Science Workshop, Bonn, 10th June 2011TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Climate Change and Sustainable Agricultural Intensification - Mark New](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070319/557c9e3cd8b42a41498b52ca/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Climate Change and Sustainable Agricultural Intensification
Mark New
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Approaches to Intensification
• Grow crops in new areas• Improve productivity in existing areas– Multiple cropping– Improved or different crop varieties– Enhanced inputs – irrigation, fertiliser, etc.– Better farm management– Economic and institutional incentives
• Climate change may limit or enable intensification
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Climate Change Uncertainty
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Uncertainty Increases as Function of…
• Spatial scale– Global -> regional -> local
• Temporal scale– Decadal -> annual -> monthly -> daily– Means -> variance -> extreme events
• Process complexity– Temperature -> humidity -> precipitation– Tropics -> mid-latitudes -> sub-tropics
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IGP Monsoon Rainfall – GCM Skill
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IGP Monsoon Rainfall – GCM Projections
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300km Global Model
25km Regional Model
50km Regional Model
Observed 10km
Does Downscaling “Add Value”?
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Does Downscaling “Add Value”?10 RCMs, driven by the same GCM
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Climate Uncertainty is Here to Stay
• In the near term– Internal variability– Model uncertainty
• Longer term– Scenario / forcing uncertainty– Model uncertainty
• Downscaling– Improved understanding of uncertainty?
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So What are the Options?Climate Compatible Intensification
• Strategies that are robust across climate uncertainties– Portfolios of crop varieties or generalist crops– Flexibility in options to avoid maladaptation– Enhance resilience / productivity to current climate
stresses– Risk management – learning from seasonal
forecasting• Informed by appropriate analysis of climate
model data
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Better Analysis of Climate Model Data
• Model evaluation and filtering with agriculturally relevant indices
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Model Evaluation & Filtering
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Analysis of New Climate Model Data
• New Centennial GCM Projections• Multi GCM-RCM ensembles – CORDEX• New decadal forecasts