climate change and the caribbean the case and the responses

Climate Change and the Caribbeanthe Case and the Responses

Ian C KingProject Officer

Adapting to Climate Change in the Caribbean (ACCC) Project

[email protected] tel. (246) 417-4579

mailto:[email protected]

IDSD Presentation - Oct '03 2

Overview

• Is GCC really happening • Why GCC is an issue for the Caribbean• What have we been doing• Challenges for the future – particularly for

National Meteorological and Hydrological Services


The Evidence

Prof. G. O. P. Obasi, WMO Secretary-General at 8th UNFCCC COP

• Recalled that the WSSD held in South Africa called for GHG stabilisation to prevent dangerous anthropogenic influence and allow ecosystems to adapt naturally and so ensure sustainable development


The Evidence - GHGs

• GHG Atmospheric concentrations– By 1st COP in 1995

• 359.5 ppmv• Increase of 28% since industrialization

– By end 2001• 370 ppmv

– Annual growth rates fluctuates from 0.5 ppmv/year to 3.5 ppmv/year


The Evidence – Temperatures & SLR• 1990s warmest decade on record

– 1998 the warmest year– 2001 the second

• Global average surface temperature– Increase by 0.6 oC since the 1860’s– Most of warming in the 20th Century especially

• 1920 – 1945• Post 1976

– IPCC suggest that most of the warming in last 30 – 50 years due to anthropogenic sources

– Reduction in snow and ice cover – especially in non-polar mountain glaciers

• Rise in average sea-level of 18 – 20 cm


Global Temperature Variation 1860 – 2000IPCC TAR


Global Temperature Variation over 1000 years (Northern hemisphere) - IPCC TAR


Variations of the Earth’s Surface Temperature1000 to 2100


Figure 3New Providence July Temperature Comparison:

Monthly-Extreme-Maximum, Mean-Daily-Maximum and Mean-Daily

y = 0.0585x + 89.953

y = 0.0481x + 87.684

y = 0.0406x + 81.001

78

80

82

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86

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96

1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000Year

Tem

pera

ture

(F)

Monthly Extreme MaximumMean Daily MaximumMean DailyLinear (Monthly Extreme Maximum)Linear (Mean Daily Maximum)Linear (Mean Daily)


Green = increasing, Brown = decreasing

Annual Precipitation(1901 – 1995)


Fig. 2. Annual mean sea level at Key West from 1846-1992:insert shows the bootstrap estimate of the linear trend and itsvariability. The dashed line is the least squares linear trendand the solid lines are the 99% CI for the trend.

Annual Mean Sea Level in Key West


Change in Annual Precipitationfor the 2050’s


Red = warming, Blue = cooling

Temperature Trends(1901 – 1996)


Figure SPM-10a: Atmospheric CO2concentration from year 1000 to year 2000 from ice core data and from direct atmospheric measurements over the past few decades. Projections of CO2concentrations for the period 2000 to 2100 are based on the six illustrative SRES scenarios and IS92a (for comparison with the SAR). Q9 Figure 9-1a

Past and Future CO2 Atmospheric Concentrations


The Evidence – Weather• Unprecedented weather extremes such as tropical

cyclones, severe floods & droughts– Recently major storm events & floods in Europe, Asia,

Africa and South America• Mozambique, 2000 storm events Elyne & Gloria est. direct

& in-direct economic cost of 11.6% of GNP– Record breaking droughts in middle Eastern countries,

Brazil, Horn of Africa & central Asia to N China• China 2001 drought 2nd most severe since 1949 (<1978)• 13 million people in Southern Africa affected by severe

drought in 2002


IPCC Assessments of Extreme Events with Climate Change (TAR Summary for Policy Makers (SPM) – Working Group II, 2001)

Very likely (90%) Likely (66-90%) Moderately likely (33-66%) (or lack of agreement between models)

•More hot days & heat waves•Reduced frost days & cold waves•More intense precipitation events over many areas

•Increased summer drying over most mid-latitude continental interiors•Increase in tropical cyclone peak wind intensities mean and peak precipitation intensities (over some areas)•Intensified floods and droughts associated El Nino events in many different regions•Increased Asian summer monsoon precipitation variability

•Increased intensity of mid-latitude storms (especially in winter)


The Evidence – ENSO• Warm ENSO episodes

– consistently leads to regional variabilities in precipitation & temperature over tropics, sub-tropics & some mid-latitudes

– More frequent, persistent and intense since the mid-1970’s compared to previous 100 years• Note 1997/1998 El Nino event was very strong affecting 110

million people and estimated to cost US $96 billion in damage• Current El Nino is predicted to be weak

– IPCC 2001 - The Scientific Basis, SPM "...global warming is likely to lead to greater extremes of drying and heavy rainfall.....that occur with El Nino events in many regions".


IPCC Third Assessment Report

• IPCC TAR in 2001 concluded– “there is new and stronger evidence that most

of the warming observed over the past 50 years is attributable to human activities.”


Climate Change: A Priority for the Caribbean

• World’s industrial powers (OECD) account for 20% world’s population, but are responsible for >50 % of global emissions – the cause of global warming and resultant climate change.

• Developing countries emit < 25 % of total GHG emissions.

• Small Island States emit < 1% of global emissions.• SIDS have contributed little to the problem but are

among the most vulnerable groups to GCC, and have low adaptive capacity.– Hence adaptation rather than mitigation is most appropriate

course



• Expected climate change impacts for region include:– Sea level rise

• Saline intrusion into freshwater aquifers• Coastal flooding and erosion

– Increased temperatures• Heat stress• Coral bleaching• Biodiversity loss• Increased emergence of vector borne

diseases



– Changes in rainfall patterns• Droughts or floods• Decreased fresh water availability

– Increased intensity of storm activity• Direct damage of infrastructure• Loss of lives


Possible Climate Change Impacts on Tourism

• Direct damage to tourism plant and natural resources– Coral reefs– Beaches

• Loss of attractiveness of the region as a destination– Impacts on health – emergence of dengue, malaria,

etc. – Reduced dive tourism if coral reefs are damaged– Milder Winters in the North

• Loss of employment in the industry• Increased insurance costs for properties in vulnerable

areas


Significance of Estimated Changes

• Economists Erik Haites (IPCC leader)and Dennis Pantin (UWI St. Augustine) asked by World Bank to estimate damages that may arise to CARICOM countries based on IPCC TAR projections

• Temperature, rainfall, SLR, tropical storms and hurricanes


Economic impacts

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LOW CASE HURRICANE DAMAGE

$30.5

$19.8

$7.1

$7.7

$0.8

$0.2

$2.6

$37.6

$9.4

$41.7

$1.0

-

$158.3

TOURISM Reduced tourism $10.0 $54.6 $23.4 $3.9 $1.7 $2.1 $1.8 $44.2 $2.4 $10.7 $2.7 $6.9 $164.5 Loss of beaches $5.2 $28.5 $12.2 $0.8 $0.3 $1.1 $0.4 $23.0 $1.3 $5.6 $1.4 $3.6 $83.4 Facility replacement $0.9 $2.8 $1.2 $0.1 $0.1 $0.5 - $1.5 $0.7 $0.6 $0.3 $0.4 $9.1 Lost dive-, eco-tourism

$0.5 $2.7 $1.2 $2.1 $0.9 $0.1 $1.0 $2.2 $0.1 $0.5 $0.1 $0.4 $11.9

Total $16.6 $88.6 $38.0 $6.9 $3.0 $3.8 $3.2 $70.9 $4.5 $17.4 $4.5 $11.3 $268.9 INFRASTRUCTURE Loss of land $0.6 $13.8 $0.4 $1.5 $0.6 $0.5 $1.8 $3.5 $0.5 $0.6 $0.3 $2.8 $26.8 Housing replacement $3.1 $11.1 $14.4 $10.6 $3.7 $4.1 $29.0 $113.8 $2.3 $9.6 $6.0 $66.5 $274.5 Other buildings $6.1 $21.6 $28.1 $20.8 $7.2 $7.9 $56.6 $222.0 $4.6 $18.8 $11.8 $129.7 $535.2 Roads, etc. $1.7 $6.0 $7.9 $5.8 $2.0 $2.2 $15.8 $62.0 $1.3 $5.2 $3.3 $36.2 $149.6 Reduced water supply $0.5 $2.0 $1.8 $0.6 $4.9 Flood damage $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.6 Total $12.1 $54.6 $52.7 $38.8 $13.6 $15.4 $103.3 $401.4 $8.8 $34.3 $21.5 $235.3 $991.6 AGRICULTURE Loss of production Flood damage $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.6 Total $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.6

Economic Impact of Climate Change in the Caribbean (1999 US$ million)(components may not sum to the total due to rounding)


Economic impacts

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FISHERIES Loss of production PUBLIC HEALTH Illness - $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 - - $0.3 $0.9 - $0.1 - $0.5 $2.2 Hurricane deaths (no.)

0.16 0.14 0 1.35 0.11 0 0.18 2.72 0.12 0.86 0.07 0.12 5.82

Hurricane injuries (no.)

7.28 0 0 23.28 0.02 0 0 0 1.23 0 0.74 0 32.54

Total - $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 - - $0.3 $0.9 - $0.1 - $0.5 $2.2 ECOSYSTEMS Beaches $0.8 $6.7 $0.2 $0.7 $0.2 $0.2 $0.8 $1.7 $0.2 $0.2 $0.2 $1.3 $13.3 Coral Reefs $0.5 $6.8 $0.2 $2.9 $0.2 $0.3 $0.8 $2.7 $0.4 $0.4 $0.3 $0.2 $15.8 Total $1.3 $13.5 $0.4 $3.6 $0.4 $0.5 $1.6 $4.4 $0.6 $0.6 $0.5 $1.5 $32.1 OTHER IMPACTS TOTAL IMPACT (US$1999)

$60.6 $176.7 $98.1 $57.0 $18.0 $20.2 $111.0 $515.2 $23.4 $94.2 $27.7 $248.7 $1,450.6

TOTAL IMPACT (US$2000)

$62.0 $180.8 $100.4 $58.3 $18.4 $20.5 $113.6 $526.9 $23.9 $96.3 $28.3 $254.4 $1,483.7

GDP (US$2000) $688 $4,800 $2,600 $826 $270 $$10 $712 $7,400 $314 $707 $333 $7,300 $26,360 Impact as % of GDP 9.0% 3.8% 3.9% 7.1% 6.8% 5.0% 16.0% 7.1% 7.6% 13.6% 8.5% 3.5% 5.6%

Note: - indicates a value less than US$0.05 million



Economic impacts

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HIGH CASE HURRICANE DAMAGE

$117.8

$76.2

$27.3

$29.6

$3.2

$0.7

$9.9

$145.0

$36.4

$160.7

$3.7

-

$610.5

TOURISM Reduced tourism $30.6 $166.2 $71.1 $11.8 $5.2 $6.5 $5.5 $134.4 $7.4 $32.7 $8.3 $21.1 $500.5 Loss of beaches $45.4 $247.0 $105.6 $4.0 $1.8 $9.7 $1.9 $199.7 $10.9 $48.5 $12.3 $31.4 $718.1 Facility replacement $7.6 $24.6 $10.1 $0.4 $1.2 $4.6 - $12.9 $6.0 $5.4 $2.6 $4.0 $79.3 Lost dive-,eco-tourism

$1.5 $8.3 $3.6 $6.5 $2.8 $0.3 $3.0 $6.7 $0.4 $1.6 $0.4 $1.1 $36.2

Total $85.1 $446.1 $190.4 $22.7 $11.0 $21.1 $10.4 $353.7 $24.7 $88.2 $23.6 $57.6 $1,334.1 INFRASTRUCTURE Loss of land $10.4 $241.9 $6.6 $26.4 $10.4 $8.3 $31.4 $60.5 $9.2 $10.8 $5.7 $48.1 $469.8 Housing replacement $21.8 $77.0 $100.3 $73.9 $25.8 $28.2 $201.7 $790.8 $16.3 $67.0 $42.0 $462.1 $1,906.9 Other buildings $42.6 $150.1 $195.5 $144.2 $50.2 $54.9 $393.4 $1,542.1 $31.8 $130.6 $82.0 $901.2 $3,718.5 Roads, etc. $6.0 $21.0 $27.3 $20.1 $7.0 $7.7 $55.0 $215.4 $4.4 $18.2 $11.5 $125.9 $519.5 Reduced water supply

$0.8 $3.4 $3.0 $1.1 $8.4

Flood damage $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $1.6 Total $81.7 $493.5 $332.8 $264.7 $93.5 $100.3 $681.6 $2,608.9 $61.8 $226.7 $141.3 $1,537.4 $6,624.7 AGRICULTURE Loss of production Flood damage $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $1.6 Total $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $1.6



Economic impacts

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FISHERIES Loss of production PUBLIC HEALTH Illness - $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 - - $0.2 $0.9 - $0.1 - $0.5 $2.2 Hurricane deaths (no.) 0.63 0.54 - 5.20 0.41 - 0.68 10.48 0.47 3.31 0.28 0.45 22.44 Hurricane injuries (no.) 28.08 - - 89.78 0.08 - - - 4.73 - 2.84 - 125.50 Total - $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 - - $0.2 $0.9 - $0.1 - $0.5 $2.2 ECOSYSTEMS Beaches $8.6 $76.5 $2.1 $8.3 $2.4 $2.4 $9.9 $19.1 $2.6 $2.2 $2.4 $15.2 $151.7 Coral reefs $2.1 $27.4 $0.9 $11.6 $0.9 $1.3 $3.2 $10.8 $1.6 $1.4 $1.2 $0.9 $63.2 Total $10.7 $103.9 $3.0 $19.9 $3.3 $3.7 $13.1 $29.9 $4.2 $3.6 $3.6 $16.1 $214.9 OTHER IMPACTS TOTAL IMPACT (US$1999)

$295.3 $1,119.9 $553.8 $337.2 $111.2 $126.0 $715.4 $3,138.6 $127.2 $479.4 $172.4 $1,611.6 $8788.0

TOTAL IMPACT (US$2000)

$302.1 $1,145.5 $566.4 $344.9 $113.7 $128.9 $731.7 $3,210.3 $130.1 $490.4 $176.3 $1,648.4 $8,988.7

GDP (US$2000) $688 $4,800 $2,600 $826 $270 $$10 $712 $7,400 $314 $707 $333 $7,300 $26,360 Impact as % of GDP 43.9% 23.9% 21.8% 41.8% 42.1% 31.4% 102.8% 43.4% 41.4% 69.4% 53.0% 22.6% 34.1%

Note: - indicates a value less than US$0.05 million



Summary of Economists Estimates

• Low scenario to 2050– $1.5 billion in total damages– Ranging from 3.5% to 16% GDP

• High Scenario• US $9 billion per year• 24% to 103% of GDP


Disease

Increased Cases

Cost of Increased

Cases

(US$, 000)

Increased Hospital

Admissions

Cost of Increased Hospital

Admissions (US$, 000)

Total Cost Increase

(000 pesos) Acute respiratory infections (ARIs)

332,615 $1,468 99,784 $1,135 $2,603

Acute diarrhoeal diseases (ADDs)

137,378 $895 41,213 $302 $1,196

Viral hepatitis (VH) 11,027 $48 3,308 $66 $113 Varicella (V) 19,353 $85 - - $85 Meningococcal meningitis

3,001 - 3,001 $80 $80

Total cost $2,496 $1,582 $4,078 Source: Ortiz Bultó, et al., 2002 and personal communications.

Increased Cases Due to Climate Change and Associated Costsfor Selected Diseases, Cuba



• SIDS meeting, 1994– BPOA

• Climate change identified as priority area of concern, requiring “urgent action”

• CPACC Project formulated after a series of national and regional consultations


The Caribbean Planning for Adaptation to Global Climate Change (CPACC) Project

• The GEF-funded Project (1997-2001) was executed by the Organization of American States in partnership with the University of the West Indies for Environment and Development, (UWICED) for the World Bank as the GEF Implementing Agency.

• The Project’s overall objective was to support Caribbean countries in preparing to cope with the adverse effects of GCC, particularly sea-level rise in coastal areas, through vulnerability assessment, adaptation planning and related capacity building.


CPACC Project Components1. Design and Establishment of Sea Level/Climate

Monitoring Network2. Establishment of Databases and Information Systems3. Inventory of Coastal Resources and Use4. Formulation of a Policy Framework for Integrated

Adaptation Planning and Management5. Coral Reef Monitoring for Climate Change6. Coastal Vulnerability and Risk Assessment7. Economic Valuation of Coastal and Marine Resources8. Formulation of Economic/Regulatory Proposals9. Green House Gas inventory


Accomplishments

• Nationally, all countries have NFP’s and NICU’s. – In some countries, National committees have been

established to address climate change.• Establishment of a sea level and climate monitoring

system that contributes to regional and global assessment of the issues

• Improved access and availability of data• Increased appreciation of climate change issues at the

policy-making level and technical support to better define the regional position at the conventions


Accomplishments

• Meeting country needs for expanded vulnerability assessment, economic evaluation techniques, developing economic instruments and methodology for coral reef monitoring

• Created a network for regional harmonization• Development of National Climate Change

Adaptation policies and action plans


After CPACC

• Adapting to Climate Change in the Caribbean (ACCC) – Oct. 2001 – Sept. 2004

• Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change (MACC) – Jan. 2003-Dec. 2006

• Caribbean Community Climate change Centre (CCCCC) – Feb 2002 -


Adapting to Climate Change in the Caribbean (ACCC) Project

• $ Cdn. 3.4 million CCCDF grant from the Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA) to further capacity building efforts initiated under CPACC. Includes:– Development of business plan for Climate Change Centre– Support for RPIU until CCCCC established and operational– Development of a M.Sc. Programme in Climate Change at

U.W.I.– Developing sectoral studies on climate change impacts and

adaptive responses


• Project 1: Detailed Project Design and Business Plan for Regional Climate Change Centre

• Project 2: Public Education and Outreach (PEO)• Project 3: Integrating Climate Change into a Physical

Planning Process using a Risk Management Approach• Project 4: Strengthening Technical Capacity – through

CIMH and National institutes, supporting Masters level course at UWI, development of region-specific climate change scenarios and liaison with other SIDS (in Caribbean and Pacific)

ACCC Projects


ACCC Projects• Project 5: Integrating Adaptation Planning in

Environmental Assessments for National and Regional Development Projects

• Project 6: Implementation Strategies for Adaptation in the Water Sector

• Project 7: Formulation of Adaptation Strategies to Protect Human Health

• Project 8: Adaptation Strategies for Agriculture and Food

• Project 9: Fostering Collaboration/Cooperation with non-CARICOM Countries


ACCC Progress to Date• Developing risk management approach to address

climate change impacts in the public and private sectors – Following several workshops and training seminars to

discuss approach– Adapted the Canadian RM standard and terminology

but adjusted to suit the region as well as utilising some aspects of the South pacific CHARM (Comprehensive Hazard and Risk management) methodology


ACCC Progress to Date• Regional Public Education and Outreach (PEO)

Strategy drafted after extensive consultation• Regional Capacity Development

– Commencement of the CC Masters– Supporting and enhancing climate modeling capability

at UWI– CIMH support

• Commenced interaction with Pacific• Collaboration with the CDB DMFC on the

incorporation of natural hazards consideration into the EIA process


Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change (MACC)

• PDF B grant to assist in defining MACC project components– Support national and regional consultations

• Sectoral and cross sectoral – Prepare full project proposal/document MACC – in

final phase• MACC finally approved by World Bank in April

’03 and should commence in late 2003 after some delay – some elements commenced already under the ACCC


MACC

• (a) Mainstreaming adaptation to climate change in national development planning and public and private investment decisions. – A key activity of the project will be the work

with key sectors (such as water supply, agriculture, forestry, land use planning) to incorporate climate change impact and risk assessment in their ongoing programs and long-term planning.


MACC• (b) Assisting Institutional and Technical Support

mechanisms:– (i) Assisting participating countries with Stage II

adaptation under the UNFCCC: – (ii) Support and coordination for the preparation of

the 2nd National Communications– (iii) Mainstreaming through a Permanent

Institutional Mechanism to Address GCC in the Caribbean


MACC• (c) Expand GCC monitoring and impact

assessment as a basis for national and regional level decision making on adaptation. The following activities will be supported:– strengthening monitoring network

• wider geographical coverage;• integration of global and Caribbean networks• increased scope of measurements and data

collection– downscaling global models– modeling under climate change scenarios


MACC• (d)Cross-regional Dissemination and

Replication– Under this component, the project will

undertake activities to facilitate replication by disseminating results and lessons learned to other regions. Specifically, the project will support efforts aimed at disseminating mainstreaming activities in the Caribbean, to Pacific Island Nations and other low lying areas.


Climate Change Centre• First Ministerial Meeting to consider the progress in the

implementation of the BPOA mandated that a mechanism be in place to continue climate change work in the region after the conclusion of the CPACC Project

• On the recommendation of the Eighth Meeting of the Council for Trade and Economic Development (COTED)

• The initiative to establish a Regional Climate Change Centre was endorsed by the CARICOM Heads of Government at their “Twenty-First Meeting of the Conference of Heads of Government of the Caribbean Community”, 2-5 July, 2000

• Established as a legal entity at the CARICOM Heads of Government Intersessional Meeting, February, 2002.

• Set to commence following the start of the MACC project but building on that activity and the CPACC Project


The Objectives of the Centre• Promoting protection of the earth’s climate system• Enhancing regional institutional capabilities for the

co-ordination of national responses to the adverse effects of climate change

• Providing comprehensive policy and technical support in the area of climate change and related issues and spearheading regional initiatives in those areas

• Performing the role of executing agency for regional environmental projects relating to climate change

• Promoting education and public awareness on climate change issues

• Facilitating regional consensus for negotiations related to the UNFCCC

climate change and the caribbean the case and the responses

Documents

s idsd presentation

cmidsd presentation

ppmvyearidsd presentation

key west idsd presentation

cause of global warming

global temperature variation

impacts climate change

south africa