1

Climate change and the Israeli Water Sector

TA - UniMiki Zaide

Israel Water & Sewage Authority

February 18 2010

2

Main water management challenges Water supply - the extent of water shortage

Israel: available fresh water Israel: available fresh water

1,200 mcm/year; current 1,200 mcm/year; current population ~7.5 million population ~7.5 million 160 160 mm33/y/capita /y/capita

This is about 30 % of “Shortage This is about 30 % of “Shortage Red Line” as defined by the UNRed Line” as defined by the UN

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Replenishment DataMin : 601 Max: 3687 Average:1384 STD: 461 MCM

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Year

MC

MReplenishment Data (Three Basin

System)

1932-2009

Cumulative shortages associated with sequences of dry years require reliable

additional supply

1993-2009

Average replenishment dropped by ~10%

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IV

I

II

III

Ramat-HaSharon

Petah Tikva

Bat Yam

12600 12800 13000 13200 13400 13600 1380015600

15800

16000

16200

16400

16600

16800

17000

17200

7.8 TCE 25.3 PCE 0.1 1,2-DCE0.2 1,2-DCE

0.11 CHCl3

1.8 1,2-DCA

30 1,1-DCE

0.54 CHCl3

1.8 CCl44 THM

2.4 1,2-DCA

1.4 1,2-DCA

197 TCE 2.4 1,2-DCA

27.6 1,1-DCE

1.3 1,2-DCA

0.3 1,2-DCA

1.5 1,2-DCA

0.2 1,1-DCE

0.06 TCE 21 CCl4

91.8 PCE 38.4 PCE

1.3 1,2-DCA

2.2 1,2-DCA

31.8 PCE

56.1 1,1-DCE

1.1 1,2-DCA

62 TCE

5.3 TCE

17 1,1-DCE22.6 TCE

1.5 1,2-DCA

1.9 1,2-DCA

0.2 1,2-DCA

7.8 TCE

8.2 TCE

2.1 1,2-DCA

0.4 1,2-DCA 84 TCE

5.2 TCE

22 TCE

23 TCE

0.4 1,2-DCA

0.8 1,2-DCA 0.6 CCl4

0.4 1,2-DCA0.5 1,2-DCA

3 1,1-DCE

0.24 TCE

15 TCE

5.1 TCE

1 1,2-DCA

1.3 TCE 0.15 PCE

5 THM

16.2 1.1-DCE

2.6 THM

1.7 PCE

11.1 1,1-DCE

0.8 TCE0.5 TCE

23 PCE

0.1 PCE

1 TCE

2.5 TCE

0.31 EDB

0.5 1,2-DCA

0.2 TCE

0.9 1,2-DCA

8.5 THM

650 TCE

0.5 1,2-DCA

0.1 TCE

9.2 TCE

1 10 11 1317

18

21

22

2324

25

26

3233

34

37

38

40

45

47 50

53 55

59

60

68

70

71

73

76

7778

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86 8788

89

90

91

92

93

94 95

96

9798

99100 101

102 103

104

105

106 107

108

109

110

111

112

113

114115

116

117

118119120

121

122123

124

125

126

127

128

129

130 131

132133

134

135136

2 km

Safari Park

Hayarkon Park

Magen

Hiria

Ayalon River

Hayarkon River

Shafirim River

Tel Aviv

N

AzrieliCenter

Aquifer Sensitive AreasVOCs ( g/L)

1999 - 2001

TRANSIENT DATA IN 90 WELLS

-VOCs detectedin 82% of wells

m

Increasing groundwater salinity

Local-Regional pollution

Rising salinity and

nitrates over time

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Table 2: Summary of the climate, Hydrological, evaporation and salinity concentration models

and the effect on water availability in Lake Kinnert

Period1979 – 2007

Observed

1979 – 2007

Modeled

2015 –2034

Modeled

Future Change

Future Change [%]

Average Precipitation

[mm]835 832 802 -30 -4%

Std Precipitation

[mm]271 263 228 -35 -13%

Average Incoming water

[mcm]663 664 620 -44 -7%

Std Incoming water

[mcm]273 256 246 -10 -4%

Average Evaporation

[mcm]230 238 249 11 5%

Average Available water

[mcm]408 401 345 -56 -14%

Std Available water

[mcm]273 272 250 -22 -8%

Average Cl Concentration

in the lake(mg/l]

233 234 277* 43 18%

* Outflow is equal to inflow, no unnatural salt removal from the lake is taking place.

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Main water management challenges for the Israeli water sector

1. Governance: Management of the water sector

2. Water supply of several types (quantity and quality)

3. Preservation & rehabilitation (?) of the natural water resources

4. Transboundary water issues

5. Preserving nature and ecological systems

6. External threats & uncertainty (e.g. climate change)

7. Water sector efficiency (e.g. regulation, water tariffs)

7

Scenario building

1. Building basic scenario (Business as usual)2. Mapping possible scenarios3. Choosing the specific weight of each scenario

High PopulationIncrease

+1.5% GRPY

Losing CoastalAquifer

-125 MCM

Climate change

up to – 30%

PotableAgriculture300 MCM

Nature - potable water

100MCM

Losing MountainAquifer

-300 MCM

Losing 100 MCM

In KinneretBasin

Water consumption

per capita-decrease to90 MCM/Y

Water consumption per capita - increase to110 MCM/Y

ModeratePopulation

growthDecrease

1.2% GRPY

Business as usual

Weighted AverageScenario

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Thank you !

Miki Zaide Water Authority, Planning Department

Michaelz10@water.gov.il