climate change and vector-borne disease durland fish, ph.d. yale school of public health yale school...
TRANSCRIPT
Climate Changeand
Vector-Borne Disease
Durland Fish, Ph.D.Yale School of Public Health
Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies
WHO-TDR PRIORITY DISEASES
DISEASE DEATHS DALYS*
AFRICAN TRYPANOSOMIASIS 50,000 1,585DENGUE 12,000 433LEISHMANIASIS 41,000 1,810MALARIA 1,080,000 40,213SCHISTOSOMIASIS 11,000 1,713TUBERCULOSIS 1,660,000 35,792CHAGAS DISEASE 21,000 680LEPROSY 2,000 141LYMPHATIC FILARIASIS 0 5,549ONCHOCERCIASIS 0 951
Remme, et al. 2002 TRENDS in Parasitology *Disability-adjusted life years x 1,000
WHO-TDR PRIORITY DISEASES
DISEASE DEATHS DALYS*
AFRICAN TRYPANOSOMIASIS 50,000 1,585DENGUE 12,000 433LEISHMANIASIS 41,000 1,810MALARIA 1,080,000 40,213SCHISTOSOMIASIS 11,000 1,713TUBERCULOSIS 1,660,000 35,792CHAGAS DISEASE 21,000 680LEPROSY 2,000 141LYMPHATIC FILARIASIS 0 5,549ONCHOCERCIASIS 0 951
Remme, et al. 2002 TRENDS in Parasitology *Disability-adjusted life years x 1,000
GLOBAL EMERGING DISEASES*
EMERGINGRE-EMERGING
VECTOR-BORNE
* Modified from Morens et al. 2004 Nature 430:242
WEST NILE VIRUS TRANSMISSION CYCLE
APOCALYPSE NOTGary Taubes, Science 1997 278:1004-6.
McMichael, Patz & Epstein: "climate change is likely to have wide-ranging and mostly adverse impacts on human health, with significant loss of life.“
Duane Gubler: "gloom and doom" speculations based on "soft
data.“… "probably the most blatant disregard for other factors that influence disease transmission."
D.A. Henderson: “a lot of simplistic thinking, which seems to ignore the fact that as climate changes, man changes as well.”
The Independent (UK) 17 April 2007
“in all the studies we have discussed supporting linkages between climate change and malaria, there is neither a unique climatic
pattern nor a unique climate variable associated with the disease”.
MALARIA
18561870
YELLOW FEVER
Walther et al. NATURE |VOL 416 | 28 MARCH 2002 |www.nature.com
Ecological responses to recent climate change
Genetic shift in photoperiodic response correlated with global warming
William E. Bradshaw and Christina M. Holzapfel
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2001 December 4; 98(25): 14509–14511.
Under the Weather: Climate, Ecosystems, and Infectious Disease
National Research Council 2001
• Research to understand the relationship between climate and infectious disease is in its infancy and needs to be strengthened.
• Interdisciplinary research centers should be established to
foster collaboration between scientists in fields such as epidemiology, climatology, and ecology.
• Federal health agencies such as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease should become actively involved.
Vectorborne and Zoonotic Diseases—Disease risk may increase as a result of climate change due to related expansions in vector ranges, shortening of pathogen incubation periods, and disruption and relocation of large human populations. Research should enhance the existing pathogen/vector control infrastructure including vector and host identification; integrate human with terrestrial and aquatic animal health surveillance systems; incorporate ecological studies to provide better predictive models; and improve risk communication and prevention strategies.
The federal government should provide technical and scientific resources that are currently lacking at the local or regional scale, incentives for local and state authorities to begin adaptation planning, guidance across jurisdictions, shared lessons learned, and support of scientific research to expand knowledge of impacts and adaptation.
Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change
May 18, 2010