Climate Change Assessment

Climate Change Assessment: Methodology

Global Circulation Models

Hydrology Models of Basin

Simulation and Optimization Models

Impacts of Climate Change on all Watershed Objectives!

Projections of Meteorology Under Climate Change

Projections of Streamflow Under Climate Change

Model Source Model Name

Canadian Climate Model CCCMA_CGCM3

Goddard Institute for Space Studies Model GISS_Model_e

Meteorological Research Institute Model MRI_CGCM2_3_2a

National Center for Atmospheric Research CCSM3

National Center for Atmospheric Research PCM1

Climate Change Data• Global Circulation

Models (GCMs) provide predictions of climate (precipitation and temperature) for the future

• Different CO2 emission scenarios are generated by these models to account for possible future scenarios

0 1 2 3 4

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Projected Change in Annual Precipitation and Temperature Between GCM Historic and 2050s

Change in Annual Temperature (degrees C)

Cha

nge

in A

nnua

l Pre

cipt

iatio

n (m

m/d

ay)

CCCMA A2CCCMA B1GISS A2GISS B1MRI A2MRI B1CCSM A2CCSM B1PCM A2PCM B1

Making Climate Change Data Usable At Local Scale: Downscaling

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2

Non-Exceedance Probablility

Ja

nu

ary

Av

era

ge

Te

mp

era

ture

(C

)

HadCM3 Cell (47.5, -120.0)

Regional Cell (47.5625,-121.8125)

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2

Non-Exceedance Probablility

Ja

nu

ary

Av

era

ge

Te

mp

era

ture

(C

)Regional Cell (47.5625,-121.8125)Snoqualmie Falls

73°0'0"W

73°0'0"W

72°0'0"W

72°0'0"W

71°0'0"W

71°0'0"W

42°0'0"N 42°0'0"N

43°0'0"N 43°0'0"N

44°0'0"N 44°0'0"N

45°0'0"N 45°0'0"N

Amherst

• Build a hydrology model of the Connecticut River watershed

• Force this model with climate impacted meteorology

• Generate climate-change impacted streamflow

Generate Streamflow Using Hydrology Model

• Identify climate impacted streamflows at index gages for SYE

• Use SYE methodology to generate climate impacted streamflow timeseries at inflow points throughout Connecticut Basin

Use SYE Method to Develop Basin-Wide Streamflow