climate change background study

Sunshine Coast Climate Change Background Study

Sunshine Coast Climate Change and Peak Oil Strategy 2010 – 2020

Climate Change Background Study

Climate Change and Peak Oil Strategy

2010-2020



Contents

1.0 Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 51.1 The Climate Change and Peak Oil Strategy ........................................................................ 51.2 The Policy Context .............................................................................................................. 51.3 Review of the Climate Change and Peak Oil Strategy and this background study............... 5

2.0 A scientific overview of climate change ................................................................................... 72.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 7

3.0 The need to manage climate change .................................................................................... 113.1 Predicting the future climate.............................................................................................. 11

3.1 (a) Emissions scenarios ...................................................................................................................113.1 (b) Global Circulation Models (GCMs) .............................................................................................12

3.2 Actual global greenhouse gas emissions .......................................................................... 133.3 Australian emissions ......................................................................................................... 143.4 Regional analysis for the Sunshine Coast ......................................................................... 15

4.0 Projected climate variability for the Sunshine Coast .............................................................. 164.1 Temperatures.................................................................................................................... 16

4.1 (a) Current annual mean temperatures............................................................................................174.1 (b) Future annual mean temperatures .............................................................................................184.1 (c) Current average minimum winter temperatures .........................................................................194.1 (d) Current average maximum summer temperatures.....................................................................194.1 (e) Projected shifts in winter and summer temperatures .................................................................194.1 (f) Extreme temperatures ................................................................................................................204.1 (g) Implications of shifts in minimum temperatures..........................................................................204.1 (h) Implications of shifts in maximum temperatures ........................................................................21

4.2 Rainfall.............................................................................................................................. 214.2 (a) Historic changes in annual mean rainfall for the Sunshine Coast..............................................214.2 (b) Changes in annual mean rainfall for the Sunshine Coast ..........................................................224.2 (c) Changes in mean seasonal rainfall ............................................................................................234.2 (d) Changes in mean monthly rainfall ..............................................................................................234.2 (e) Rainfall intensity and flooding.....................................................................................................25

4.3 Sea level rise .................................................................................................................... 264.3 (a) Measured global sea level rise ...................................................................................................264.3 (b) Projected mean sea level rise ....................................................................................................274.3 (c) Expectations for sea level rise....................................................................................................294.3 (d) Planning for future sea level rise for the Sunshine Coast ..........................................................294.3 (e) Sea level extremes .....................................................................................................................30

4.4 Wind.................................................................................................................................. 314.4 (a) Extreme winds ............................................................................................................................31

4.5 Extreme events ................................................................................................................. 314.5 (a) Tropical Cyclones .......................................................................................................................314.5 (b) Storm tides and wave set up ......................................................................................................324.5 (c) Hail storms..................................................................................................................................324.5 (d) Droughts and bushfires...............................................................................................................33

4.6 Acidification of the oceans................................................................................................. 334.7 Uncertainty........................................................................................................................ 34

4.7 (a) The Current Climate ...................................................................................................................344.7 (b) The Future Climate .....................................................................................................................344.7 (c) Earth’s sensitivity to the changes ...............................................................................................35

5.0 Approaches to managing climate change.............................................................................. 36



5.1 A Risk Management Approach.......................................................................................... 365.2 Climate change management............................................................................................ 375.3 Mitigation........................................................................................................................... 385.4 Adaptation......................................................................................................................... 395.5 Timeframes for decision making........................................................................................ 405.6 Addressing perceptions of climate change ........................................................................ 41

6.0 Climate change implications for Council and the community................................................. 426.1 Implications for natural systems ........................................................................................ 42

6.1 (a) Water resources .........................................................................................................................426.1 (b) Biodiversity .................................................................................................................................436.1 (c) Waterways and wetlands............................................................................................................476.1 (d) Air quality ....................................................................................................................................47

6.2 Implications for Infrastructure and Assets.......................................................................... 486.2 (a) Stormwater systems ...................................................................................................................486.2 (b) Water supply systems.................................................................................................................496.2 (c) Wastewater collection and treatment systems ...........................................................................496.2 (d) Transport systems ......................................................................................................................506.2 (e) Telecommunications, power and gas systems...........................................................................516.2 (f) Waste management facilities......................................................................................................516.2 (g) Development in the coastal margins ..........................................................................................52

6.3 Implications for People and Society................................................................................... 536.3 (a) A growing population ..................................................................................................................536.3 (b) Vulnerable age groups in the community ...................................................................................536.3 (c) Health implications......................................................................................................................556.3 (d) Factors affecting resilience and adaptive capacity.....................................................................56

6.4 Implications for the economy and its development ............................................................ 576.4 (a) Market and competitiveness risk ................................................................................................576.4 (b) Impacts on systems and industries ............................................................................................576.4 (c) Food production..........................................................................................................................586.4 (d) Tourism and service industries...................................................................................................586.4 (e) Greenhouse gas emissions ........................................................................................................586.4 (f) Disaster management and emergency service facilities ............................................................59

6.5 Organisational implications ............................................................................................... 606.5 (a) Planning and policy.....................................................................................................................606.5 (b) Insurance ....................................................................................................................................606.5 (c) Special considerations for sea level rise, storm surge and coastal erosion...............................616.5 (d) Risks from multiple impacts........................................................................................................62

7.0 Climate change initiatives ..................................................................................................... 637.1 Key international responses and programs ....................................................................... 65

7.1 (a) Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) ................................................................657.1 (b) United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) ...................................657.1 (c) The Kyoto Protocol .....................................................................................................................657.1 (d) ICLEI - Local Governments for Sustainability.............................................................................66

7.2 Federal approaches .......................................................................................................... 667.2 (a) Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)................................667.2 (b) National Climate Change Adaptation Framework ......................................................................667.2 (c) National Greenhouse and Energy Reporting System (NGERS) ................................................677.2 (d) Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS) ............................................................................677.2 (e) Renewable Energy Target Scheme............................................................................................677.2 (f) Climate Adaptation National Research Flagship........................................................................687.2 (g) National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility.............................................................687.2 (h) Local Adaptation Pathways (LAP) grants ...................................................................................68



7.3 State responses ................................................................................................................ 697.3 (a) ClimateQ: toward a greener Queensland ...................................................................................697.3 (b) Toward Q2: Tomorrow’s Queensland.........................................................................................697.3 (c) Draft Queensland Coastal Plan 2009 .........................................................................................69

7.4 Regional policy responses and initiatives .......................................................................... 707.4 (a) South East Queensland (SEQ) Regional Plan 2009–2031 ........................................................707.4 (b) Southeast Queensland Climate Adaptation Research Initiative (SEQCARI) .............................707.4 (c) Sustainability Research Centre - University of the Sunshine Coast ..........................................70

7.5 Sunshine Coast Council initiatives .................................................................................... 717.5 (a) Corporate Carbon Accounting and Management Project...........................................................72

8.0 Glossary................................................................................................................................ 749.0 Acronyms.............................................................................................................................. 7810.0 References ........................................................................................................................... 79



1.0 Introduction

The Climate Change Background Study is a supporting document for the Sunshine Coast Climate Change and Peak Oil Strategy 2010 – 2020 (the Climate Change and Peak Oil Strategy).

1.1 The Climate Change and Peak Oil Strategy

It is the goal of the Climate Change and Peak Oil Strategy ‘�� .

The Climate Change Background Study identifies the basis for the policy approaches in the Climate Change and Peak Oil Strategy relevant to climate change and its related themes: mitigation, adaptation and leadership.

1.2 The Policy Context

Council’s Corporate Plan 2009-2014 promotes policy actions which are intended to ensure the region’s environmental, social and economic prosperity.

The Corporate Plan objective is to be achieved through the implementation of environmental, social and economic strategies including the Climate Change and Peak Oil Strategy (Figure 1.1).

The Climate Change and Peak Oil Strategy is not a stand alone document. Consistent with the approach of mainstreaming which is identified in this document (pp 37), climate change considerations need to be integrated across other policies, plans and strategies developed by Council.

1.3 Review of the Climate Change and Peak Oil Strategy and this background study

A formal review of the Climate Change and Peak Oil Strategy is to be undertaken every five years to reflect developments in science, technology and government policy direction. As a precursor, the Climate Change Background Study will be reviewed in order to ensure that the Strategy is appropriately informed.

Interim changes to the Climate Change Background Study may also be necessary to accommodate new scientific understanding, further IPCC reports or recommendations and findings from the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) or Australian Government Department of Climate Change.

Where practical, these developments should be incorporated into the Climate Change Background Study as part of the triennial review process which is identified in Section 4.4.2 of the Climate Change and Peak Oil Strategy.



Figure 1.1: The hierarchy of policy approaches, including the Climate Change and Peak Oil Strategy, which support the Sunshine Coast Council’s Corporate Plan.

In addition to supporting the Climate Change and Peak Oil Strategy, the Climate Change Background Study can be used to:

� Inform Council planning and operational activities and the Planning Scheme;

� Guide Council and community decision-making

� Engage community and educate stakeholders

� Drive a range of actions to deliver upon the goal



2.0 A scientific overview of climate change

2.1 Introduction

Through much of human history the earth has had a relatively steady, warm temperature which is attributed to gases such as water vapour, carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane in the atmosphere. Without these, the earth would be much colder than it is and most of the water on the planet would be frozen. At certain levels, these ‘greenhouse gases’ make the planet liveable for humans and many other kinds of plants and animals by trapping some of the heat radiating outward from the earth (Figure 2.1), much like the walls of a greenhouse trapping heated air. This process of limiting heat loss through the atmosphere is called the ‘greenhouse effect’.

Figure 2.1: The Greenhouse Effect (Source: Snover et. al. 2007)



Humans have released large amounts of heat-trapping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere over a short period of time (Table 2.1) through activities such as:

� Burning fossil fuels (e.g. oil, coal, natural gas)

� Agricultural practices

� Clearing forests

� Land settlement.

Since about 1750 this rapid and large release of greenhouse gases has caused important changes in the composition of the earth’s atmosphere and, consequently, in the global climate.

The enhanced greenhouse effect is becoming more evident through an associated shift in the ‘radiative forcing’ factors which regulate global, regional and local weather patterns.

‘Radiative forcing’ factors influence the amount of solar energy which is retained in the atmosphere and impact on the cooling of the planet (e.g. ice sheets, clouds, water vapour) and heating of the planet (carbon dioxide and methane).

While these ‘radiative forcing’ factors have been responsible for a variable but relatively stable global climate, emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and other greenhouse gas are shifting this balance towards a more volatile and variable climate. Over time, there will be a continuing shift in the balance of the ‘radiative forcing’ factors with associated shifts in our weather patterns as the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gas emissions increase.

Table 2.1: Changes in greenhouse gas concentrations between 1750 (the start of the Industrial Age) and 2005. Concentrations of carbon dioxide are measured in parts per million (ppm), which refers to the total number of carbon dioxide molecules per one million molecules of dry air by volume. Methane and nitrous oxide are measured in parts per billion (ppb). (Source: Snover et. al. 2007)

While changes in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases in Figure 2.2 are important, the key concern for the climate change is the associated disturbance of the carbon cycle.



Figure 2.2 Changes in the atmospheric concentration of three important greenhouse gases (Source: Snover et. al. 2007)

Carbon dioxide concentration levels in the atmosphere now exceed any previous CO2 levels that have ever been measured or estimated and therefore there is an element of additional uncertainty with regard to the potential future shifts in the climate that continuing greenhouse gas emissions may have (Figure 2.3).

There is growing concern that significant adverse shifts in the global climate, well beyond those we that have been measured or experienced, could result from the growing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere.



Figure 2.3 Human disturbance of the carbon cycle: an earth system perspective (Source: Steffen 2009)

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3.0 The need to manage climate change

Mounting physical evidence indicates that climate change is in motion as a result of the greenhouse gases already accumulated in the atmosphere. Many of the changes projected until the middle of the 21st century will be driven by existing greenhouse gas concentrations (Hansen et. al. 2005, Meehl et. al. 2005, Wigley 2005, IPCC 2007).

Even if greenhouse gas emissions are stabilised, some degree of warming would still occur globally due to the increased concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the lag time of the earth’s oceans and atmosphere to warm (Hansen et. al. 2005, Meehl et. al. 2005, Wigley 2005, IPCC 2007). However, reducing greenhouse gas emissions will limit the severity of long-term future impacts (Hansen et. al. 2005, Meehl et. al. 2005, Wigley 2005, IPCC 2007).

3.1 Predicting the future climate

Climate change projections are an estimate of the response of the climate system to possible greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions over the next century. Such projections are typically based on climate model simulations.

The modelling methodology for generating climate change projections is shown in Figure 3.1.

Figure 3.1 The modelling methodology for generating climate change projections (Source: Climate Change Catchments and Coasts, University of the Sunshine Coast)

3.1 (a) Emissions scenarios

The impacts of climate change will be significantly influenced by the greenhouse gas emissions which occur now and in the future.

Emission Scenarios

Carbon Cycle Model

Atmospheric Concentrations

Radiative Forcing

Global Circulation Models

Radiative Models

Global Warming



Emissions scenarios have been devised to provide a standardised method for estimating the potential future concentrations of greenhouse gas emissions. These scenarios are based on assumptions about the future evolution of society, including assumptions about demographic, socio-economic, and technological developments.

Figure 3.2 provides an indication of commonly used assumptions which have been utilised in the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) Emissions Scenarios.

Figure 3.2: Assumptions utilised in the commonly used IPCC Emissions Scenarios (Source: Climate Change Catchments and Coasts, University of the Sunshine Coast)

To date the published IPCC projections for climate change represent a conservative range of outputs which have been generated from IPCC SRES Scenarios where the term SRES is a reference to the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) which discusses the scenarios and the outputs from their use (IPCC 2000).

The estimated changes in greenhouse gas concentrations that are developed for each emissions scenario are used to evaluate the likely shifts in the build up of energy within the earth’s atmosphere, the changes this may cause to circulation patterns and the subsequent implications for climate change.

3.1 (b) Global Circulation Models (GCMs)

Global Circulation Models (GCMs) are complex, three-dimensional climate models that consider a range of factors with potential to influence our global climate system. They are also referred to as Global Climate Models.

2

Societies Values

Economic

Fossil Fuel TechnologiesConsumer EconomiesPersonal Wealth

Environmental

Efficient TechnologiesInformation EconomiesSustainability

Political Cohesion Regional

Heterogeneous EconomiesFragmented & Ethnocentric PoliciesIncreasing 3rd World PopulationDiverging per Capita Incomes

GlobalHomogenous EconomiesInternational AgreementsLow Population GrowthConverging per Capita Incomes

A

1

B

A1FI(Fossil Fuel Intensive)

A1T (Technology Development)

A1B(Balanced Development)

B1 B2

A2Notes•These scenarios do not consider mitigation programs such as Kyoto.

•A1FI assumes unlimited fossil fuels. Does not consider peak oil

•A1T considered by some as unlikely in next 50 years. (A2 may be the realistic worst case).

•B2 generally considered best case scenario.

A1



GCM outputs have been widely used to assess climate change impacts for various geographical regions of the world. The IPCC obtains outputs from a range of GCMs which have been developed by more than a dozen scientific institutions across the globe, including the Australian Commonwealth Scientific Industrial and Research Organisation (CSIRO), NASA and the Hadley Centre in the United Kingdom.

GCMs provide outputs at a global scale. Two methodologies exist for translating this information to regional and sub-regional scales. These processes are referred to as pattern downscaling and dynamic downscaling.

The projections which are developed by the CSIRO for Australia, and regions within Australia, generally reflect outputs from dynamic downscaling. The outputs from the SimCLIM model reflect the pattern downscaling methodology, where outputs are generated by adjusting local climate variables in accordance with the patterns associated with a selected GCM and climate change scenario. Projections specific to the Sunshine Coast have mostly been generated using the SimCLIM model.

While SimCLIM itself is not a GCM, it does utilise the outputs generated by various GCMs for the full range of IPCC SRES scenarios which are reported in the IPCC reports (IPCC 2007, IPCC 2001).

3.2 Actual global greenhouse gas emissions

Actual global greenhouse emissions are now equal to or exceed the highest trajectories for global greenhouse gas emissions that are associated with the commonly used IPCC Emissions Scenarios (Figure 3.3).

Figure 3.3 Comparison of actual global greenhouse emissions with the emissions projected using the commonly used IPCC Emissions Scenarios (Source: Steffen 2009)



Given that increasing greenhouse gas concentrations correlate to projections of more intense climate change impacts, Figure 2.6 suggests that:

� The A1FI scenario may be the most realistic scenario for global climate change

� Actual climate variability could be larger and occur over shorter time frames than the projected changes associated with the A1FI scenario.

Clearly, greenhouse gas emissions need to be addressed to minimise further climate changes. If emissions continue to increase, there will be fewer opportunities to effectively adapt to the continually accelerating pace of climate change.

Significant reduction of greenhouse gas emissions is possible, but it is unlikely that greenhouse gas emissions will be stabilised or reversed in the near term without clear and strong action.

3.3 Australian emissions

“Australia’s per capita emissions are the highest of any developed country”

Ross Garnaut The Garnaut Climate Change Review Final Report (Commonwealth of Australia 2008)

As indicated by Figure 3.4, Australian greenhouse gas emissions must be curbed to mitigate risks associated with accelerated climate change.

Figure 3.4 Australian greenhouse gas emissions: Comparison of actual greenhouse emissions with the paths projected for emissions reductions associated with limited (‘with measures’) and significant (‘deep emissions cuts’) mitigation action (Source: Associate Professor B.Miles)



Greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced or reversed with a global transition to a clean energy economy. However, to avoid the worst climate change impacts greenhouse gas emissions need to be cut to the point where atmospheric concentrations stabilise and then decline.

Irrespective of the recognition of climate change science, local government in South East Queensland (SEQ) is obliged to act to:

� Address shifts in Federal, State and regional policies

� Address growing community concerns regarding increasing climate variability

� Prepare for potential policy shifts associated with insurance

� Mitigate risks that impact on public health, safety, litigation and Council costs.

3.4 Regional analysis for the Sunshine Coast

The IPCC Fourth Assessment recommends the use of regionally specific estimates of climate change. Where possible, projections have been modelled for the Sunshine Coast to provide an indication of expected changes in climate and associated impacts for the region.

Outputs from the SimCLIM model, which provide a regionally specific assessment for the Sunshine Coast, have been used to inform Council’s Climate Change and Peak Oil Strategy. Outputs from dynamic downscaling for the SEQ region and sea level projections from a range of sources have been used to supplement regional data.

Where practical, the SimCLIM projections are based on the outputs from GCMs used by the IPCC, IPCC SRES Scenarios (A1T for 2020 and A1FI for 2050, 2075 and 2100) and high climate sensitivity. The modelling also assumes a ‘business as usual’ approach where there is no significant reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions.

The Sunshine Coast projections will be reviewed to accommodate improved modelling outputs, changes to IPCC scenarios and any shifts in greenhouse gas mitigation approaches.



4.0 Projected climate variability for the Sunshine Coast

Where possible, the following projections for the future climate of the Sunshine Coast have been derived from SimCLIM modelling software. Council acknowledges the assistance of the University of the Sunshine Coast in developing these projections. Significant input was provided by the University’s Climate Change, Coasts and Catchments unit within the Faculty of Science, Health and Education.

4.1 Temperatures

Based on analysis of observational data, the IPCC (IPCC 2007) has identified that there is evidence of increasing temperatures across the globe. A simplified analysis of data from a number of weather stations on the Sunshine Coast appears to support this IPCC statement as, in general terms, the local data indicates that annual mean temperatures have been increasing across the Sunshine Coast when compared to the IPCC baseline period from 1961 to 1990 (Figure 4.1).

Figure 4.1: Scatter plot of annual mean temperatures from three Sunshine Coast weather stations (Tewantin Post Office, Crohamhurst and Nambour DPI) for the periods 1961 to 1990 (blue dots) and 1991 to 2006 (green dots) and a line of best fit for each period (brown and orange respectively). While considerable variability between annual mean temperatures can be observed, trends are apparent. For the period from 1961 to 1990 there was a slight trend of decreases in annual mean temperatures while, for the period between 1991 to 2006 there has been a trend of increasing annual mean temperatures for the Sunshine Coast. It should be noted that data was not available for the Nambour and Crohamhust weather stations for the period from 1961 to 1964 and this may have affected the trend for that period. A lack of data also prevented the inclusion of trends for the period prior to 1961. The period 1961 to 1990 was selected as it is consistent with the baseline period utilised in IPCC reports (IPCC 2007). El Nino and other factors of climatic variability have not been considered in this analysis.

(Source: Bureau of Meteorology data for recorded daily temperatures as obtained from SimCLIM. Annual mean temperatures were excluded where the mean was based on less than 100 days of data. In order to avoid potential shifts in the mean, other missing data was replaced by the annual mean temperature for the corresponding year.)

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1961 to 1990 1991 to 1996



The IPCC (2007) has also indicated that temperatures will continue to shift in concert with increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gas emissions. Fewer cold days and more hot days are expected, with associated shifts in annual and seasonal means and extremes.

4.1 (a) Current annual mean temperatures

Higher annual mean temperatures are associated with the coastal areas while lower annual mean temperatures are associated with the hinterland areas. Figure 4.2 identifies the distribution of annual mean temperatures within the Sunshine Coast for the current climate (1961 - 1990).

Figure 4.2: Distribution of annual mean temperatures for the Sunshine Coast for the current climate (1961 - 1990) - (Source: Recorded data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology and included in the SimCLIM Model)



4.1 (b) Future annual mean temperatures

Projections have been modelled for mean annual temperatures for the Sunshine Coast for the 2020, 2050, 2075 and 2100 timeframes as indicated in Figure 4.3.

Figure 4.3: Projected mean annual temperatures for the SCRC area for (a) 2020, (b) 2050, (c) 2075 and (d) 2100 (SimCLIM Model settings: HadCM3 GCM with high sensitivity and IPCC SRES A1T scenario for 2020 and IPCC SRES A1FI for 2050, 2075 and 2100)

(a) Projected average annual temperatures for 2020

(b) Projected average annual temperatures for 2050

(c) Projected average annual temperatures for 2075

(d) Projected average annual temperatures for 2100



These figures indicate there will be warming across the region, with annual mean temperatures increasing by:

� Up to 1°C by 2020

� Up to 2.°C by 2050

� Up to 4°C by 2075

� Up to 6.5°C by 2100.

4.1 (c) Current average minimum winter temperatures

Average winter minimum temperatures vary across the region, reflecting local terrain and climate processes. Generally, warmer conditions occur towards the coastline while lower average winter minimum temperatures are recorded further inland. The average minimum winter temperature for the Sunshine Coast for the period 1961 to 1990 was 7.6°C.

4.1 (d) Current average maximum summer temperatures

The average maximum summer temperature for the Sunshine Coast for the period 1961 to 1990 was 28.2°C. Cooler temperatures occur in areas with hi gher elevations (e.g. Blackall Range).

4.1 (e) Projected shifts in winter and summer temperatures

Consistent with the projected shift in average temperatures for the Sunshine Coast, average minimum temperatures for winter and average maximum summer temperatures are also projected to increase over time. This is also consistent with IPCC and CSIRO projections (IPCC 2007, CSIRO 2007a) (Figure 4.4).

Figure 4.4: Current and projected (2020, 2050, 2075 and 2100) average minimum winter temperatures and average maximum summer temperatures for the Sunshine Coast (Model settings: HadCM GCM with high sensitivity and IPCC SRES A1T scenario for 2020 and IPCC SRES A1FI for 2050, 2075 and 2100).

8.710.7

13.3

29.431.5

34.2

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28.2

36.4

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1990 2020 2050 2075 2100Year

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(°C

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Average winter minimum temperatures Average summer maximum temperatures



4.1 (f) Extreme temperatures

The proportion of days per year with temperatures above 35°C is projected to increase (Figure 4.5).

Compared to 1990 temperatures, the Sunshine Coast is expected to experience:

� An additional 7 days (1 week) of extreme temperatures by 2050,

� At least an additional 14 days (2 weeks) of extreme temperatures by 2075; and

� An additional 30 days (1 month) of extreme temperatures by 2100.

Figure 4.5: The projected worst case change in the average number of days per annum where temperatures will be greater than 35°C. (Projections are for the period from 1990 to 2100. In accordance with climatology standards the average has been calculated using 30 years of projected data). (Model settings: HadCM GCM with high sensitivity and IPCC SRES A1T scenario for 2020 and IPCC SRES A1FI for 2050, 2075 and 2100)

These projected heat extremes indicate a higher potential for heat waves and droughts which will impact on the lifestyles and livelihoods of the Sunshine Coast population.

4.1 (g) Implications of shifts in minimum temperatures

While higher minimum winter temperatures are likely to have positive implications for sectors such as recreation and tourism, the implications are adverse for aspects of the natural environment and the agricultural sector. Natural plant cycles are expected to be impacted presenting challenges for industries such as wine which relies on frosts for crop development.

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Tewantin Post Office Nambour Dept Primary Industries Crohamhurst



Shifts in summer minimum temperatures will also impact on liveability for natural and human environments, particularly as the region will experience warmer minimum temperatures at night. In an urban context, there will be less relief from higher daytime temperatures, particularly during heat waves.

4.1 (h) Implications of shifts in maximum temperatures

Shifts in summer maximum temperatures will also impact both natural and human environments. Higher maximum summer temperatures have a potential to put stress on sectors such as recreation and tourism as people become more concerned about health risks associated with warmer weather. In an urban context, household disposable income may decline with increased demand for air conditioning or alternative places of refuge may be required during heat waves.

4.2 Rainfall

The Sunshine Coast is expected to experience a change in rainfall patterns as a result of climate change. These include:

� Reductions in annual rainfall

� Fewer days per annum when rainfall can be expected to occur

� Shifts in mean seasonal rainfall

� Shifts in mean monthly rainfall

� Changes in the intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events.

4.2 (a) Historic changes in annual mean rainfall for the Sunshine Coast

Based on analysis of observational data, the IPCC (IPCC 2007) has identified that there is evidence of decreasing rainfall across the globe. For SEQ, the average annual rainfall in the last decade fell nearly 16 per cent compared with the previous 30 years. This is generally consistent with natural variability experienced over the last 110 years, which makes it difficult to detect any influence of climate change at this stage.

A simplified analysis of data from a number of weather stations on the Sunshine Coast appears to support the IPCC statement as, in general terms, the local data indicates that total annual rainfall has changed over time (Figure 4.6). For the period between 1888 and 1960 there is a trend of increasing annual rainfall. For the IPCC baseline period between 1961 and 1990 the trend changes and shows a decline in annual rainfall. For the period between 1991 and 2006, the trend of decreasing annual rainfall appears to accelerate.



Figure 4.6: Scatter plot of annual total rainfall for the Sunshine Coast for the periods 1888 to 1960 (blue dots), 1961 to 1990 (light blue dots) and 1991 to 2006 (green dots) and a line of best fit for each period (green, blue and grey respectively. The scatter plot is based on aggregation of daily rainfall data to obtain annual total rainfall from 30 monitoring sites across the Sunshine Coast. Tthe trend of declining rainfall is apparent.

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1885 1905 1925 1945 1965 1985 2005

Year

Ann

ual R

ainf

all (

mm

)

Pre 1961 1961-1990 Post 1990

(The period 1961 to 1990 was selected as this is consistent with the baseline periods assessed by the IPCC (IPCC 2007). Annual means were excluded where missing data in that year exceeded 150 days. This removed a potential for distortion of the trend lines due to the inclusion of abnormally low annual means which were not related to the actual rainfall which occurred in that year. Missing data for other years was assumed to be zero. El Nino and other factors of climatic variability have not been considered in this analysis. Source: Bureau of Meteorology data for daily rainfall contained in SimCLIM. Rainfall data was available for the following weather stations: Tewantin Post Office, Pomona Post Office, Beerburrum Forest Station, Cooroy Composite, Beerwah Forest, Peachester Woodford, Crohamhurst, Bald Knob, Landsborough Post Office, Caloundra Post Office, Caloundra Signal Station, Caloundra Water Treatment Plant, Maleny Dening Road, Mooloolah Post Office, Buderim Post Office, Palmwoods Hobson St, Craglands, Kenilworth Township, Little Yabba SFR 274, Nambour DPI, Mapleton Post Office, Moreton Sugar Mill, Nambour Bowling Club, Yandina Post Office, Conondale Township, Coolum Bowls Club, Eumundi Crescent Rd, Imbil Post Office, Kin Kin Post Office and Maleny Tamarind St.)

4.2 (b) Changes in annual mean rainfall for the Sunshine Coast

Rainfall is projected to decline across the Sunshine Coast consistent with the CSIRO (2007a) projections for changes in rainfall for SEQ. The ‘best estimate’ of projected rainfall change shows a decrease under all emissions scenarios. However, there is considerable variability between the projected a range of rainfall changes for the different GCMs.

Projections also indicate annual potential evaporation could increase 6–16 per cent by 2070.

Through analysis of historic records for catchments east of the Great Dividing Range, Miles et. al.(2008) have identified that a 25 per cent reduction in long term rainfall is likely to result in reductions in stream discharges of up to 50 per cent. As a result, a likely reduction in rainfall on the Sunshine Coast would indicate a significant reduction in available water resources in the region by 2100. These reductions in available water resources may occur over much shorter time frames than those suggested, as the future climate could be drier and hotter than the climate evaluated by Miles et. al.(2008).



The decline in water resources is also likely to be exacerbated by high population growth in the region.

4.2 (c) Changes in mean seasonal rainfall

The Sunshine Coast is likely to experience seasonal shifts in rainfall patterns. While the shift for winter is unclear as different models suggest either an increase or decrease, the overall trend for projected rainfall patterns is a decline and, if so, this is likely to impact on water supply, agriculture and industry.

Table 4.1 indicates the projected seasonal changes in rainfall. Seasonal changes in rainfall are expected to have limited impact on the short term availability of water resources on the Sunshine Coast. In the medium to long term, however, there is potential for the Sunshine Coast to rely on summer rainfalls (particularly in January and February) and increased, but limited winter rainfalls.

Table 4.1: Comparison of the relative temporal variation in seasonal rainfall for the Sunshine Coast

Season Time Frame Projected Outcome

Summer 2020 Decrease in rainfall

2100 Further decrease in rainfall

Autumn 2020 Decrease in rainfall


Winter 2020 Shift in rainfall

2100 Further shift in rainfall

Spring 2020 Decrease in rainfall


4.2 (d) Changes in mean monthly rainfall

Mean monthly rainfall represents the average rainfall received for each particular month, based on analysis of a 30 year data set. Figure 4.7 shows the current and projected monthly means for the Nambour Department of Primary Industries (DPI) weather station. The current monthly means follow a cyclic process with high monthly rainfall associated with summer and early autumn, declines in monthly rainfall until late winter or early spring, followed by higher monthly rainfall in late spring and early summer. While there is local variability, other weather stations on the Sunshine Coast show similar results.

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As indicated in Figure 4.7, characteristics of monthly rainfalls are expected to be increasingly impacted by climate change over time. There is likely to be significant reliance on January and February rainfalls to replenish the region’s water resources.

While further investigation is required, it is expected that these projected shifts in the characteristics of monthly rainfalls will impact environmental flows, ecology and water resource extraction in the catchment.

4.2 (e) Rainfall intensity and flooding

It is projected that climate change will impact on the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events, with fewer but larger rainfall events expected, consistent with CSIRO projections (Abbs, McInnes and Rafter 2007).

This is supported by Queensland Transport’s ‘Sunshine Coast Multimodal Transport report’ (Main Roads 2009) which indicates that “an analysis of CSIRO studies on climate change indicates a potential for a 32 per cent increase in rainfall intensity in the Sunshine Coast due to climate change”.

To provide an indication of this change, the SimCLIM model has been used to undertake a statistical analysis of historical daily rainfall data from the weather stations at Crohamhurst, the Department of Primary Industries Research Centre in Nambour (Nambour DPI) and the Kin Kin Post Office (Table 4.2).

The change in the intensity of rainfall events is provided using estimated recurrence periods for historic and projected rainfall events. The recurrence period is an estimate of the probability that a given rainfall event would be equalled or exceeded in any given year. This example has focused on the rainfall event which could be expected to occur once every 100 years.

Table 4.2 The current 1-in-100 year, 24 hour rainfall event for selected weather stations on the Sunshine Coast, and the projected recurrence period for the same size event for four future time frames (Source: SimCLIM model using HADCM3 GCM with high sensitivity and IPCC SRES A1T Scenario for 2020 and IPCC SRES A1FI Scenario for 2050 2075 and 2100. The projected rainfall is based on a 30 year data set.)

Weather Station Historic 1-in-100 year rainfall event (24 hour)

Projected return period for the rainfall event equivalent to the historic 1-in-100 year event

Size (mm) 2020 2050 2075 2100

Crohamhurst 602.87 100 years 86 years 60 years 44 years

Nambour DPI* 514.96 88 years 69 years 50 years 37 years

Kin Kin 392.35 98 years 75 years 43 years 28 years

* Department of Primary Industries Research Centre # Based on daily rainfall records for: Crohamhust 01/01/1893 to 31/12/2003, Nambour DPI 1/01/1952 to 31/12/2007 and Kin Kin Post Office 1/01/1969 to 31/12/2000. These data sets do not include records for the recent flood events which occurred in 2009.

As a result of climate change, rainfall events which are the same size as the historic 1-in-100 year rainfall event are expected to occur more frequently in the future. In addition to the potential for more frequent flooding, this shift in the characteristics of rainfall events is also likely to:



� Increase runoff and associated pollutants

� Increase soil erosion

� Impact on vegetation cover which provides soil stability.

These shifts in environmental flows and water quality are expected to impact on waterways and biodiversity.

4.3 Sea level rise

Future sea level rise is usually discussed with regard to changes in mean global sea level (IPCC 2007, IPCC 2001, Hunter 2009). However, sea level varies regionally, so local variations should be a consideration when determining the implications of sea level rise (Maunsell Australia 2008, ACE CRC 2008, Church et. al. 2008b). In addition, planning considerations need to address changes in mean sea level and the implications this has for shifts in tidal extremes and storm surge (eg higher spring tides will create new risk areas and increase the incidence of coastal inundation and erosion) (ACE CRC 2008, Hunter 2008a).

The integration of local and regional considerations into sea level rise hazard analysis is not always practical due to data limitations. For example, assessments of existing coastal processes may not be available or localised projections of sea level rise may not have been undertaken. In many cases, this will require sea level rise hazard analysis to be undertaken using alternative indicators such as projected averages for global sea level rise or broad default values for extreme tides and storm surges.

4.3 (a) Measured global sea level rise

The rate of global sea-level rise from the 19th to the 20th century averaged about 1.7 mm/year (Church et. al. 2008a).

While it has not been directly attributed to climate change at this time, the average rate of global sea-level rise increased from 1.8 mm/year for the period 1961 to 2003 to 3.1 mm/year for the period 1993 to 2003 (IPCC 2007).

This is not unprecedented. At the peak of the last ice age, 21,000 years ago the “sea level rose by as much as 4 m per century as the climate warmed and land-based ice melted and drained into the ocean” (Church et. al. 2008a).

Paleological records indicate that, about 125,000 years ago, this resulted in sea levels 4–6 m above those of the present day (Church et. al. 2008a).



4.3 (b) Projected mean sea level rise

A range of scientific projections have been developed regarding sea level rise:

� The IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) indicates that, by 2100, the global mean sea level rise can be expected to be between 8cm and 88 cm (IPCC 2001)

� The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) indicates that, by 2100, the upper limits for sea level rise are equivalent to the upper limits of the range identified in the TAR, while the lower limits of the AR4 projections are higher than the TAR levels (Hunter 2008b, IPCC 2001, IPCC 2007)

� The Queensland Government has adopted a series of planning levels for sea level rise in the Draft Queensland Coastal Plan (DERM 2009). These appear to reflect the projections of Hunter (2008b) for the 95th percentile for the A1FI SRES Scenario.

� The Australian Government Department of Climate Change (AGDCC 2009) report ‘Climate change risks to Australia’s Coast – A First Pass National Assessment’ indicates that global mean sea level rise is projected to be 110 cm by 2100 (Table 2.1 pp 27). Projections of 20 cm and 70 cm are also provided for 2030 and 2070 respectively. This report was released on 14 November 2009.

� Estimates recently published in the journal Science consider the constraints on glacial melt and state, ‘we consider glaciological conditions required for large sea-level rise to occur by 2100 and conclude that increases in excess of 2 metres are physically untenable.’ However, there is a body of literature which suggests that sea level rise of greater than 2 metres by 2100 cannot be ruled out entirely. These largest of sea level rise scenarios are termed the H+ scenarios and are generally derived from models projecting the greatest changes based on observations of past sea level from periods analogous to the 21st century (Table 2). These scenarios have a very low probability of occurring by 2100.

There are some key elements to note with regard to the projections which were utilised for the assessment which is reported in the ‘First Pass National Assessment’ (AGDCC 2009):

� New research using statistical approaches informed by the observed relationship between temperature and sea level has resulted in updated sea level rise projections (Rahmstorf 2007). Sea-level rise projections presented to the March 2009 Climate Change Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions Congress in Copenhagen ranged from 0.75 to 1.9 metres by 2100 relative to 1990, with 1.1–1.2 metres the mid-range of the projection (AGDCC 2009, Rahmstorf 2009).

� The ‘high end’ scenario that was utilised in the Department of Climate Change assessment “considers the possible high-end risk identified in AR4” and “includes some new evidence on icesheet dynamics published since 2006 and after AR4”

� A sea-level rise value of 1.1 metres by 2100 was selected in the Department of Climate Change assessment as it represented a plausible range of sea level rise values from post IPCC research (AGDCC 2009). In particular the citation in the First Pass National risk assessment refers to Rahmstorf (2009) and the associated presentation at the Copenhagen Climate Change Congress in Copenhagen March 2009 (AGDCC 2009)

� The basis for utilising the ‘high end’ scenario was that “post AR4 analysis combining thermal expansion and potential rates of ice melt show that the probabilistic distribution is skewed towards the upper end and that using the high-end scenario to inform decision-making is justified”

� The Department of Climate Change report has recognised the value of the ‘high end’ scenario as a decision making tool (AGDCC 2009)



� The Australian Government Department of Climate Change (2009) report indicates that “this is a dynamic area of science – sea-level rise projections will change and risk assessments and policies will need to be reviewed and amended over time to reflect new research findings”.

Figure 4.8 identifies projections for sea level rise from:

� Hunter (2008b) for the range of global mean sea level rise between the 5th percentile minima and the 95th percentile maxima for the IPCC A1FI SRES scenario projections

� The projections in the Draft Queensland Coastal Plan (DERM 2009).

� The ‘high end’ scenario which was used for the sea level rise risk analysis in the First Pass National Assessment’ using the projections from Table 2.1 on pp 27 of the Australian Government Department of Climate Change report 2009 and additional data points based on linear interpolation between the provided projections

Figure 4.8: Projected global sea level rise sourced from Hunter (2008), Australia Government Department of Climate Change (2009), Queensland Government (DERM 2009). The range from Hunter (2008) is representative of the IPCC AR4 global sea level rise 5% minima and 95% maxima. The projections from the Queensland Government (DERM 2009) reflect the 95% maxima provided by Hunter after rounding of the projections to the nearest 10 centimetres. The Australia Government Department of Climate Change (2009) projections utilise the IPCC AR4 global sea level rise projections while also incorporating the latest science with regard to ice sheet melt.

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4.3 (c) Expectations for sea level rise

Evidence suggests that sea level rise could be higher than those projected.

Evidence that sea level rise could be higher includes:

� Recent observations show increasing net mass loss from the Greenland ice sheet and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (Steffen 2009)

� Although there is support for possible sea level rises of between two and twelve metres above present day sea levels (Church et. al. 2008a, Maunsell Australia Pty Ltd 2008), there is conjecture over the timing (e.g. Maunsell Australia Pty Ltd (2008) suggests that sea level rise of this nature could occur in the 21st century, while Church et. al. 2008a suggests that sea level rise of this nature will occur after the 21st century)

� Most estimates indicate higher rather than lower sea level rises than originally projected (Steffen 2009)

� Raupach et. al. (2007) and Canadell et. al. (2007) have demonstrated that global greenhouse gas emissions are now tracking close to the (high-impact) A1FI scenario with little mitigation pathway.

As a result, there should be a clear recognition that:

� Sea level rise will be observed well past the 2100 time frame that has been provided here

� Scientific evidence from local, national and international studies may increase projected sea levels and any such changes will need to be reflected in the Climate Change and Peak Oil Strategy and Climate Change Background Study

� Planning levels may need to be adjusted to address changes in understanding with regard to sea level rise.

4.3 (d) Planning for future sea level rise for the Sunshine Coast

The following factors have been considered when determining appropriate planning levels for future mean sea level rise for the Sunshine Coast:

� The IPCC recommends the utilisation of localised climate change projections for planning purposes

� With no local or regional projections for sea level generated by a recognised scientific body there is a need to default to global sea level rise considerations for the Sunshine Coast

� Global sea level rise of up to 2 m by 2100 is plausible but of low probability

� Sea level rise models resulting from General Circulation Models typically do not consider additional contributions from potential ice-sheet dynamic processes (i.e. melting of ice sheets in Antarctic and Greenland). As a result, the IPCC AR4 figure of 0.8 metres by 2100 should only be used if additional provisions for ice-sheet dynamics are also provided.

� Once enacted, Council will be obliged to apply the sea level rise projections in the Draft Coastal Management Plan as the minimum levels for sea level rise in any long-term planning approach (DERM 2009)



� By indicating that the sea level rise projections in the Draft Coastal Management Plan are minimum levels for sea level rise, the Draft Coastal Management Plan permits the application of more relevant information for the management of coastal areas

� The Australian Government National First Pass Risk Assessment indicates that the ‘high end’ scenario represents an increase on the IPCC global sea level rise projections “based on an improved understanding of existing natural processes and their relationship with increasing temperatures and the integration of this knowledge into the projection methodologies regarding the potential future changes in global sea level” (AGDCC 2009)

� The Australian Government also provides a caveat that the ‘high end’ 1.1m level by 2100 may be too low for risk management (AGDCC 2009)

� Scientists have already recognised that new projections are likely to identify higher sea level rise levels that will need to have appropriate planning levels

� A number of recognised scientists have indicated that they will be utilising the Australian Government ‘high end’ scenario in climate change adaptation research.

Based on these considerations the utilisation of the ‘high end’ scenario from the National First Pass Risk Assessment is advocated for planning for future sea level rise for the Sunshine Coast. The recommended sea level rise planning levels for the Sunshine Coast are shown in Table 4.3.

Table 4.3: Recommended planning levels for mean sea level rise for the Sunshine Coast (Source: Australian Government Department of Climate Change 2009 pp27 High End Scenario 3 projections and linear interpolation for the decades between the provided projections.)

Recommended planning levels

Year Planning level (m)

2030 0.20

2040 0.32

2050 0.45

2060 0.58

2070 0.70

2080 0.84

2090 0.97

2100 1.10

4.3 (e) Sea level extremes

In addition to sea level rise, climate change alters the frequency of high sea-level extremes such as storm surges and king tides (Hunter 2008a). Generally, in Australia, the frequency of extremes increases 10 fold for every 0.2m sea-level rise (Hunter 2008a).

Hunter (2008a) indicates that “even a reasonably modest rise of sea level of 0.5m would mean that events that presently happen only once a year would happen every day or that the present 100 year event would happen several times a year”.



For the Brisbane region the frequency of high sea-level events is likely to multiply by 10,000 with a sea-level rise of 0.5 m (ACE CRC 2008). The coastline will therefore be vulnerable to the implications of mean sea level rise. On the Sunshine Coast, higher storm surges and larger spring tides are predicted with increased risk of flooding in the region.

4.4 Wind

CSIRO (2007a) has evaluated climate change influences on average wind speeds for eastern Australia. It is anticipated that wind speeds will increase along the east coast of Australia and dominant synoptic systems will intensify, generating stronger winds (CSIRO 2007a).

While these changes have significant implications for infrastructure and the natural environment, the extent of the projected changes in wind speeds has not been quantified.

4.4 (a) Extreme winds

Changes in the frequency and intensity of severe winds have potential to create hazardous conditions over oceans and impact on coastlines which generate storm surges and large waves, causing coastal inundation and erosion (CSIRO 2007a). Even modest changes in wind speed can have a major impact on erosion by altering the wave climate (CSIRO 2007a).

4.5 Extreme events

While shifts in extreme temperatures, rainfall and wind speeds have already been discussed, changes to a range of other extreme events are likely to occur as a result of climate change.

4.5 (a) Tropical Cyclones

CSIRO has recently undertaken modelling to determine the potential shifts in cyclone characteristics and implications for the Queensland coastline for 2030 and 2070.

As indicated by the CSIRO (Abbs 2008), the changes in tropical cyclone characteristics are expected to include:

� A 9 per cent decrease in tropical cyclone numbers

� An increase in the number of long-lived tropical cyclones (potentially several days to a week)

� Storms tending to decay further south (average of 3 degrees latitude)

� Lower central pressures

� Stronger winds (mostly in the Pacific)

� A 60 per cent increase in the number of the most severe storms by 2030

� A 140 per cent increase in the number of the most severe storms by 2070.



4.5 (b) Storm tides and wave set up

A storm tide is a higher-than-normal sea level that occurs due to the presence of a storm or cyclone (Hardy et. al. 2004a, GHD 2007). The height of the storm tide is obtained by adding the effect the storm has on the sea level (the storm surge) to the normal tide level at the time (Hardy et. al. 2004a, GHD 2007).

Storm tides are often considered in terms of their return period or the average number of storm tides that occur during a very long period. However, it is possible to experience the ‘1 in 50 year’ event twice in one or two years (Hardy et. al. 2004a, GHD 2007).

Storm tides should be considered in terms of their risk or probability over the design life of a development or major project, rather than the return period in isolation (Hardy et. al. 2004a, GHD 2007).

As well as storm tides, wave action causes a local rise in water level at the coast, known as wave set up (Hardy et. al. 2004a, GHD 2007). The magnitude of wave set up is dependent on the height of the waves (Hardy et. al. 2004a).

Local understanding of storm tides and wave set up

The extent of storm tides and wave set up for the Sunshine Coast is outlined in two assessments by Connell Wagner (2005) and Hardy et. al. (2004b). While local in nature, and addressing cyclonic and non-cyclonic storm tide recurrence, the local storm tide assessment undertaken by Connell Wagner in 2005 identifies planning levels for storm tide characteristics between Peregian and Minyama (Connell Wagner 2005).

Hardy et. al. (2004a) developed regional modelling of induced storm surge and wave set up for the Sunshine Coast. However, this model does not address non-cyclonic storm tide recurrence which, from a local perspective, is the most significant issue for coastal erosion on the Sunshine Coast.

In the medium to long-term, a more detailed storm tide and wave set up assessment will be required for the Sunshine Coast, as part of a broader coastal vulnerability assessment that identifies potential changes in coastal impacts associated with climate change. Until then, the planning advice provided by Connell Wagner (2005) is supported for the relevant areas of the Sunshine Coast.

4.5 (c) Hail storms

CSIRO has projected a change in large hail risk for SEQ. Figure 4.9 indicates the projected change in large hail storm risk for Australia, with both the 2030 and 2070 projections indicating increased risks of large hail storms for the Sunshine Coast.



Figure 4.9: Projected change in large hail risk for 2030 and 2070 (CSIRO 2007a)

4.5 (d) Droughts and bushfires

As a result of increasing temperature and declining rainfall, it is expected that droughts will become more frequent and last longer than droughts currently experienced on the Sunshine Coast (CSIRO 2007a).

Bushfires are expected to become more frequent and more intense as a result of:

� Vegetation growth resulting from more intense rainfall events

� Hotter and longer dry periods associated with increasing temperature and declining rainfall

� Increased wind speeds which will intensify and spread bushfires.

(AGO 2006)

4.6 Acidification of the oceans

There is evidence that rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations have acidified the oceans by about 0.1pH (The Australian Climate Group 2008).

When carbon dioxide interacts with water it produces carbonic acid, decreasing the concentration of carbonate ions which are critical to marine calcifiers such as corals.

Further acidification is likely to put marine ecosystems under substantial pressure and potentially place entire ocean food webs at risk. If rapid acidification of the oceans continues, fishing productivity will be threatened with associated impacts on dependent organisms and food production (The Australian Climate Group 2008).

More large hail days

Less large hail & CST days



4.7 Uncertainty

Decisions about managing the environment are plagued with uncertainty. There is uncertainty about the past, current and future state of the environment (Dessai and Hulme 2007). These uncertainties are amplified when considering climate change.

4.7 (a) The Current Climate

Lack of knowledge about the current climate and its extremes, partly due to the limited length of weather records, is often cited as a cause of climate change uncertainty. This lack of certainty is often the basis of claims that current climate extremes are a reflection of natural cycles and/or processes rather than climate shifts resulting from greenhouse gas emissions.

Irrespective of the cause, in the absence of appropriate extreme weather projections, decision-making may need to shift from considering historic climate to considering approaches which address the potential for greater climate extremes.

4.7 (b) The Future Climate

The future climate is currently being predicted by the outputs of global climate models (GCMs) which have a level of uncertainty.

Emission scenarios incorporate a range of assumptions about the future evolution of society which may or may not actually occur, and do not consider varying current and planned mitigation approaches and actions.

Uncertainties associated with the climate model simulations include the following:

� Limited ability to simulate all natural processes

� Limited ability to simulate historic climates

� Inconsistency in outputs from different models

� Inconsistency in outputs at different spatial scales

� Data limitations.

While GCMs have developed to the point where they can simulate climate phenomena over large spatial areas (eg El Niño – Southern Oscillation) with outputs produced at a global scale, there are inherent limitations associated with the ability of GCMs to simulate more localised and/or shorter-term natural climate phenomena which impact on local and regional climates.



4.7 (c) Earth’s sensitivity to the changes

Climate predictions are usually based on the recognition that various components are known and are going to evolve in time in a certain manner. The concern with this approach is the reliance on an assumption that the climate system will continue to perform as is currently understood.

Within some sectors of the scientific community, there is growing concern about increasing potential for significant global ‘tipping points’ with associated changes that are unforeseen and potentially catastrophic (eg stoppages of ocean circulation patterns which regulate temperatures along the coastal areas of a number of continents) (The Australian Climate Group 2008).

Despite the low probability, it is accepted by some scientists that the following catastrophic climate change events are possible:

� Oceans turn from ‘sinks’ that absorb carbon dioxide into ‘sources’ that release the stored carbon dioxide and exacerbate the rate of climate change

� Thawing permafrost releases large quantities of stored greenhouse gases, leading to further temperature increases

� Disintegration of the Greenland and West Antarctica ice sheets, raising sea levels and decreasing the amount of solar energy being reflected back into the atmosphere (which would further accelerate climate change).

(The Australian Climate Group 2008)



5.0 Approaches to managing climate change

In the past, uncertainties regarding the magnitude and impacts of climate change have prevented action. While uncertainties still exist, there is now sufficient information to enable local government to factor climate risks into its planning decision-making process.

“The costs of action are less than the costs of inaction.” Ross Garnaut The Garnaut Climate Change Review Final Report (Commonwealth of Australia 2008)

5.1 A Risk Management Approach

A risk management approach is identified as the preferred methodology for determining priorities associated with climate change mitigation and adaptation (Branscomb 2004; Coaffee 2008, Coaffee and Rogers, 2008; Howe and White 2004; Raco 2003). The risk management approach utilises a three step process:

1. Identify the risk (or opportunity): In the case of climate change, multiple hazards may need to be considered i.e. flooding, sea level rise, storm surge and erosion. Changes to these hazards over time will also be a consideration.

2. Assess the likelihood and consequences of the risk (or opportunity): While the characteristics of the hazard being considered will vary, the level of risk will also be related to the vulnerability of any impacted environmental, economic or social system.

3. Prepare a strategy and action plan: This would include the broad Sunshine Coast Climate Change and Peak Oil Strategy 2010 – 2020 and more specific mitigation and adaptation strategies such as the Carbon Neutral Plan, Greenhouse Reduction Plan, Climate Change Adaptation Plans.

Risk management also involves developing early proactive measures and becoming increasingly reactive in later stages (Flood and Chiardubháin 2008). The Greater London Authority (2008) suggests the following four step process:

Prevent: Actions taken to reduce the probability of an impact. The key preventative action in tackling climate change is reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Prepare: Actions taken to better understand the risk/opportunity ahead of the change occurring and to proactively enable an effective response and recovery.

Respond: Actions taken in response to an event to limit the consequence of the event.

Recover: Actions taken after an event to enable a rapid and cost-effective return to normal or more sustainable state.



As indicated by the International Risk Governance Council (IRGC 2006), one of the key advantages of a risk management approach is capacity to achieve overall sustainability with a particular focus on sustaining vital ecological functions, economic prosperity and social cohesion. Ultimately, this approach needs to recognise the value of:

� Engagement across society

� Improving the understanding of the risk and disasters

� Organising prevention activity at all levels of society.

(IRGC 2006)

5.2 Climate change management

Management of climate change issues is generally discussed in terms of the need to:

� Mitigate greenhouse gas emissions to reduce the potential future impacts of climate change

� Adapt to the implications of climate change which can be reasonably expected to occur.

Managing climate change also needs to consider the following approaches:

� Sustainability: Human activity needs to change so that society, individuals and economies can meet present needs, while preserving biodiversity and natural ecosystems and planning and acting for the ability to maintain these for the future.

� Adoption of a precautionary approach: So that the lack of full scientific certainty is not used as a reason for postponing cost-effective measures where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage.

� ’No Regrets’ policy responses: Actions can be justified on other grounds.

� Prudent stewardship: Decision-making is applied in a manner which promotes the efficient and effective use of a community’s resources in the interest of the region.

� Financial responsibility and cost benefit analysis: Decisions are made according to accepted levels of financial responsibility on behalf of the community. For infrastructure projects required to mitigate or adapt to climate change, risk and cost evaluation should be expressed through whole of life costing. In addition to short and long-term costs of mitigating or adapting to climate change, corresponding analyses of the costs of taking no action will also be required.

� Mainstreaming: Integration of policies and measures that consider climate change into planning and decision-making (Klein et. al. 2007, Klein 2002; Huq et. al. 2003; Agrawala 2005).

� Consultation and participation: Consultation with communities is fundamental to decision-making. For decisions likely to be influenced by climate change, those being consulted must be informed of the likely scenarios and associated risks to their communities. Consultation should also be used to raise awareness of risk and develop appropriate responses (Commonwealth of Australia 2008).

� Integrating different levels of government: Even though local governments contribute to climate change (eg through energy consumption, public transport) implementation of climate change policies must include actions that extend beyond local government jurisdiction and capability (such as consumer behaviour, equipment standardisation). Local government advocacy is essential in influencing factors beyond local government control (de Oliveira 2009), Bulkeley and Betsill, 2003).



Mitigation is a key policy approach for the Sunshine Coast Climate Change and Peak Oil Strategy 2010-2020.

5.3 Mitigation

Given that increasing global concentrations of greenhouse gases are causing shifts in many natural systems, reducing greenhouse gas emissions today will play a critical role in determining how much climate change is experienced in the future. This approach is referred to as climate change mitigation.

In simple terms it involves using the carbon hierarchy to identify and prioritise local actions through:

� Avoiding the generation of greenhouse gas emissions

� Minimising generation greenhouse gas emissions that cannot be avoided

� Using carbon sinks or carbon offsets to remove an equivalent amount of greenhouse gas emissions to those which have been released to the atmosphere.

The marginal costs of abatement are also an important consideration for prioritising mitigation actions. This is done using a marginal abatement cost curve (MACC) or similar methodology. Figure 5.1 explains the method for interpreting MACC information.

Figure 5.1: How to read an abatement cost curve (MACC). (Source: McKinsey 2008)



Adaptation is a key policy approach for the Sunshine Coast Climate Change and Peak Oil Strategy 2010-2020.

5.4 Adaptation

Given the dependence of global economic systems on fossil fuels, and the time required to integrate new technologies that reduce or replace fossil fuels into the global marketplace, any significant reduction in CO2 emissions is unlikely to occur early enough to avoid many projected climate change impacts.

Climate change is expected to continue long after greenhouse gases are stabilised. Greenhouse gases remain in the atmosphere for tens to thousands of years before breaking down. Until this happens, greenhouse gas molecules will continue to trap energy, causing continued warming (Snover et. al. 2007, IPCC 2001, IPCC 2007).

Even after atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases are stabilised, it may take hundreds of years for global temperature and ocean levels to reach a new equilibrium due to the physical size and characteristics of the earth’s oceans and atmosphere (Snover et. al. 2007, IPCC 2001, IPCC 2007).

Together, these facts indicate that atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and global temperatures are expected to increase beyond the 21st century.

If no action is taken, climate change will likely lead to irreversible losses in a wide range of areas including nature and habitat (Australian Government 2008). Avoiding these losses will require actively managing ecosystems, urban environments and human behaviour. Adaptation will be required if people, lifestyles and land are to be protected now and in the future.

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Key concepts underpinning climate change adaptation include:

� Vulnerability: The degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes (IPCC 2001).

� Resilience: The capacity to accommodate, or successfully adapt to, external threats, such as the impacts of enhanced climate change (Hamin and Gurran 2009). Resilient communities are the overarching goal, while adaptation and mitigation are the methods to achieve the intermediate objective of reducing vulnerability and reducing the overall environmental, social and economic risks associated with climate change.

� Adaptive Capacity: Adaptation does not occur in isolation, but takes place amongst a complex mix of economic, social and institutional circumstances. Knowledge of adaptive capacity provides an understanding to how people will respond to climate change and their capacity to adapt to new challenges associated with climate change.

� Localise the Approach: Recognition of differences in spatial scales is an important aspect of climate change. Adaptation is more appropriate at the local or regional level to address any local peculiarities of the area. Access to local information, including climate data, will assist in evaluating local and regional impacts and adapting over time.

5.5 Timeframes for decision making

While climate change needs to be considered in strategic decision-making, the time frames associated with decision-making are a significant issue for many planners, politicians and individuals.

Climate change adds a new dimension for decision makers:

� Climate change implications are medium to long-term considerations (10 to 100 years)

� Most planning associated with infrastructure focuses on a 10 to 20 year population projection, while the design life for most infrastructure is considerably longer

Short-term decision-making has potential to result in a significant underestimation of the potential implications of climate change on infrastructure and the community.

A long-term 100 year planning horizon is recommended to assist with these strategic decisions and is supported by the IPCC. In the absence of definitive climate change projections, a precautionary approach is recommended based on the information that is currently available and understood.



5.6 Addressing perceptions of climate change

The following comments identify the more common perceptions of climate change and responses proposed by the International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives (ICLEI) in its guideline document ‘Preparing for Climate Change: A Guidebook for Local, Regional, and State Governments’(Snover et. al. 2007).

“I’ll deal with climate change when I see that it is happening.” Acute climate change may not be evident in some sectors for several decades. This time lag may contribute to the perception that climate change is an issue to address when the results of it are obviously occurring. There is considerable evidence that climate change is already underway. Deferring planning could cause costly delays and increase vulnerability to climate impacts given the time required to implement some preparedness strategies. For example, expanding a water supply system to accommodate the combined impacts of population growth and climate change may take 10 to 30 years before the additional capacity is online. A delay in providing this infrastructure could leave a region vulnerable to drought, higher water rates, and broader economic costs. In some cases, waiting for obvious signs of climate change may rule out lower cost preparedness options, leaving only expensive solutions.

“Action should happen at higher levels of government.” While national and international policies have an important role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, it may be a half-century or more before policies lead to any substantive reduction in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and global average temperature. More importantly, the impacts of climate change will be felt most acutely at the local scale. Managing these impacts will require developing locally based strategies.

“I’ll deal with climate change when you can tell me exactly what I need to plan for.” Some fields (eg engineering and urban planning) traditionally demand precise information to warrant changes to physical structures, large-scale capital investments, or land use zoning. Climate change will require planning with evolving, imperfect information. Waiting for certainty can increase vulnerability to climate change and potentially lead to high financial and social costs. Climate change can be incorporated into plans and designs, if those documents are written to accommodate a reasonable range of projected extremes.

“I don’t have time or money to deal with climate change right now.” Governments must continually address multiple issues of immediate importance, often making it difficult to take on new issues such as climate change preparedness. In many cases, climate change will exacerbate existing high priority management concerns rather than creating completely new challenges. Therefore, efforts to address existing management concerns affected by climate change may simultaneously reduce vulnerability to projected climate impacts.



6.0 Climate change implications for Council and the community

Climate change is likely to create or increase a range of pressures for Council and the community across a wide spectrum. It is recommended that Council address these through its functional departments and endeavour to:

� Better understand and manage climate change risks and impacts on the natural and built environment through research, assessment, planning, infrastructure services, disaster management

� Manage impacts on the environment, social and economic systems and pursue opportunities through environmental, social planning, economic development and community engagement

� Adapt lifestyles and staff working conditions to a new climate through communication, services, planning, workplace health and safety

� Plan for and manage health issues and mortality across the region through agency partnerships, disaster management, social and strategic planning

� Plan for increased disruption of essential services through demand management, disaster management, and planning for decentralised systems and support systems

� Adapt administrative systems, process and policies to manage the implications of greater climate variability.

(CSIRO 2007b, Carthy and Chandra 2006, NOS 2002, AGO 2007a, AGO 2007b, Maunsell 2007, NZCCO 2004a, NZCCO 2004b and NZMfE 2001)

The basis for these pressures relates directly to increased climate variability and its implications for natural systems, communities and infrastructure.

6.1 Implications for natural systems

6.1 (a) Water resources

Given the projected decline in rainfall and increasing temperatures, the indication is that the available water resources will decline in both the mid to long term according to CSIRO (2007b), AGO (2007a), AGO (2007b) and NZCCO (2004b).

In general there is likely to be less available water as a result of:

� Decreased rainfall projected

� Decreased groundwater recharge

� Decreased runoff as a result of the drier soil conditions

� Decreased runoff reaching water storages due to increased evaporation.



6.1 (b) Biodiversity

Terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity are recognised as being vulnerable to climate change based on the irreversibility and magnitude of the expected change, low adaptive capacity, persistence of the impacts, the rate of change and the scientific confidence with regard to these implications (NRMC 2004). It is widely believed that many ecosystems are already affected by global temperature increases (NRMC 2004).

A detailed list of potential impacts, as identified in the National Biodiversity and Climate Change Action Plan (NRMC 2004) is provided in Table 6.1.

Human activities such as urban development, vegetation clearing and discharge of pollutants have significant influences on biodiversity and ecosystems. As such, the potential climate change impacts on the biodiversity of the Sunshine Coast will increase as a result of continuing development and population growth, factors addressed in the Sunshine Coast Biodiversity Strategy 2010-2020.

Based on this information, the risk of water shortages will increase, particularly during droughts. Pressures and conflicts may also emerge regarding maintenance of water flows that protect our natural systems and the escalating demand for water from a growing population.

Additional implications for water resources are identified by CSIRO (2007b), AGO (2007a), AGO (2007b) and NZCCO (2004b) to include:

� Deteriorated water quality within waterways and water storage dams and associated implications for water supplies for human use and natural systems

� Loss of ground water resources due to increased salinity resulting from sea level rise and over extraction of groundwater resources

� Increased risk of water pollution due to increased frequency and intensity of bushfires within the catchment.

These implications can be addressed through Council’s plans and strategies, particularly its land use planning approaches and strategies regarding biodiversity, waterways and coastal foreshores.

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The most critical impacts on biodiversity and their causes include:

� Reductions in the geographic range of species: Many Australian species currently have distributions that are extremely limited in terms of climate. For example, 25 per cent of Australian eucalypts have distributions that span less than 1°C of mean annual temperature (NRMC 2004). These restricted species are particularly vulnerable to modest changes in climate. A significant number of frog, mammal and plant species could become restricted to small areas or disappear altogether with a warming of only 0.5°C.

� Changes in the location of species’ habitats: Many species will tend to move south or upward in elevation (if suitable habitats exist) to keep pace with shifting climate zones (NRMC 2004). There is growing concern that it is not feasible for many species to migrate in a way which would maintain current biodiversity characteristics.

� Increases in the risk of extinction for species that are already vulnerable: Species with limited climatic ranges, limited dispersal ability, specialised habitat requirements, small populations and/or low genetic diversity are typically the most vulnerable to extinction. Species with extensive, non-patchy ranges, long-range dispersal mechanisms, large populations and high genetic diversity are likely to be at less risk of extinction.

� Increased opportunity for range expansion of invasive species: Many weedy and pest species already have characteristics that enable them to take advantage of climatic changes (highly mobile, opportunistic breeding, wide climatic tolerance). Native communities under stress from climatic changes may be more susceptible to invasion and other disturbances.

� Changes in the structure and composition of ecosystems and communities: Changes in climatic factors such as temperature and rainfall will directly affect the distribution, lifecycles, physiology, habitat use and extinction rates of individual species. In turn, these changes will alter interactions between species (e.g. competition and predation), leading to changes in the structure and composition of communities and ecosystems.

� Influences from changes to the landscape: Given the increased temperatures and declining rainfall, it is likely that vegetation cover will be impacted on many of our landscapes. There will also be an increased risk of impacts on biodiversity as winds, storms, bushfires, flooding and other extreme events cause further deterioration of the already declining natural landscapes.

Scientific evidence is rapidly mounting that many of the changes listed above are already occurring, consistent with the warming trends over the past century (NRMC 2004). These changes are expected to accelerate and become more obvious over the next few decades, though the precise nature and rate of change for individual species and ecosystems is uncertain (NRMC 2004).

Implementation of Council’s Biodiversity Strategy will play a key part in protecting and enhancing the resilience of the Sunshine Coasts biodiversity.



6.1 (c) Waterways and wetlands

6.1 (d) Air quality

Air quality on the Sunshine Coast is generally good thanks to a lack of heavy industry. However, it can be expected to decline as a result of climate change and its associated impacts which include:

� Increased dust due to extended dry periods and changes in wind patterns

� Increase pollen from plants as a result of extended growing periods.

Conversely, some of these impacts may be offset. Efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions have potential to reduce a range of other air pollutants associated with fuel combustion and industrial activities.

Potential climate change implications for waterways and wetlands include:

� Changes to waterway stability and impacts on natural values due to increased flooding resulting from more intense rainfall events followed by extended dry periods

� Increase bank erosion and loss of natural habitat due to increased runoff from more intense rainfall events

� Increased runoff of pollutants to waterways as declines in riparian vegetation impact natural filtering characteristics

� Exposure to increased impacts from sea level rise and storm surge

� Loss of recreation opportunities as water quality declines over time

� Loss of commercial and recreational fish stocks as fish habitats decline.

Councils Waterways and Coastal Foreshores Strategy and Biodiversity Strategy are likely to provide complimentary outcomes which would build the resilience of waterways and wetlands to the implications of climate change.



6.2 Implications for Infrastructure and Assets

The implications of climate change which are generic to infrastructure are recognised by CSIRO (2007b), AGO (2007a), AGO (2007b) and New Zealand Climate Change Office (NZCCO 2004b) to include:

� Impacts on piping and other infrastructure due to increased salinity of soils and groundwater associated with changed temperatures and rainfall

� Impacts on piping and other infrastructure due to increased soil slumping associated with intense wet periods (soil expansion) followed by extended dry periods (soil contraction)

� Increased damage to buildings and infrastructure due to changes in rainfall and associated increases in frequency and intensity of storms, floods, hail and/or wind speeds

� Higher rates of building deterioration and associated maintenance costs due to material fatigue associated with a greater range of temperatures and exposure to extremes

� Increased heat stress on equipment with risk of failure of electrical equipment (air conditioning units and pumps) due to increased demand during peak times (e.g. heat waves and extended periods of hot weather).

� Changed service levels with climate change affected non-priority assets and infrastructure.

The Sunshine Coast Council undertook a risk assessment to assess the implications of climate change on its own assets and infrastructure through a Climate Change Infrastructure Adaptation Project. Extreme and high risks that were identified have been considered in developing the Climate Change and Peak Oil Strategy.

6.2 (a) Stormwater systems

Specific implications are likely to increase demand for new or upgraded stormwater infrastructure. These include:

� Increased quantities of pollutants entering the stormwater system as runoff associated with extended length of dry periods

� Increased flooding and inundation of stormwater outlets associated with sea level rise and storm surges

� Increased localised flooding and associated increase in overflows from the stormwater system.

(CSIRO 2007b, AGO 2007b, NZCCO 2004b)

Council’s approaches to Integrated Water Management will be an integral component when responding to these implications.



6.2 (b) Water supply systems

6.2 (c) Wastewater collection and treatment systems

According to CSIRO (2007b) and Australian Greenhouse Office (AGO 2007a) climate change implications for water supply systems are expected to include:

� Decreased runoff reaching water storage facilities

� Increased treatment of deteriorated water supplies from storage dams

� Loss of ground water resources due to increased salinity resulting from sea level rise and over-extraction of groundwater resources

� Increased evaporation loss from open reservoirs

� Possible flooding of pump stations due to sea level changes and storm surge

� Increased risk of water pollution in dams due to increased frequency and intensity of bushfires within the catchment

� Impacts on piping and other infrastructure associated with saline groundwater.

It is recommended that Local and State Governments work with water entities to develop appropriate responses to these complex issues.

Wastewater collection and treatment systems are vulnerable due to the following climate change risks:

� Increased potential for corrosion and odours resulting from sewage concentrations associated with increasing ambient and seasonal temperatures and longer travel times

� Changes in intensity of rainfall events affecting the inflow and infiltration to the wastewater network

� Increased salinity in water infiltrating the sewer network and at wastewater treatment plants

� Increased incidence of sewer overflows due to increased rainfall intensity during storms

� Reduced reliability of power supply and failure of sewage pumping and treatment equipment.

(CSIRO 2007b, AGO 2007a)

It is recommended that public and private sector stakeholders collaborate to develop an appropriate wastewater risk management strategy to mitigate the impacts of climate change.



6.2 (d) Transport systems

The CSIRO (2007b), AGO (2007a), Cechet (2004), Austroads (2004) and Main Roads (2006) have identified numerous climate change risks that have potential to impact local and national transport systems:

� Embrittlement due to warmer temperatures and more rapid ageing of the surface chip seal

� Increase in potholes and loss of surface condition associated with embrittlement of bitumen

� Asphalt rutting associated with extended periods of summer heat on roads that carry heavy traffic and loads

� Washouts after long periods of surface softening followed by intense rainfall

� Permanent or intermittent flooding of causeways and low lying roads

� Increased frequency, depth and duration of flooding across roads and potentially, rail lines and airports

� Potential warping of steel railway lines due to extreme temperatures

� Loss or damage to roads from coastal erosion

� Changes to flooding characteristics of coastal roads due to storm surge

� Longer disruptions to transport movement as a result of increased storm intensity

� Deterioration of road surfaces and reinforcement in concrete structures associated with changes to groundwater impacting on soil salinity and salt movement

� Service disruption to public transport and heat stress to users associated with warmer temperatures.

These risks will increase road maintenance requirements. Costs are also expected to increase as the supply of bitumen and similar products are impacted by declining global oil supplies and associated cost increases.



6.2 (e) Telecommunications, power and gas systems

6.2 (f) Waste management facilities

Potential implications for waste management activities include the following:

� Changes to ground water resulting in increased potential for leaching of pollutants

� Increased intensity of rainfall resulting in increased pollutant runoff and discharge

� Increased risk of bushfire

� Loss of landfill life resulting from the impacts of cyclones and extreme storms which generate large amounts of waste.

(CSIRO 2007b)

Expected implications for telecommunications, power and gas systems and the associated impacts on communities have been identified by CSIRO (2007b) to include:

� Permanent or intermittent flooding of substations, exchanges, manholes, pits and other facilities due to increased intensity of rainfall events, sea level rise and storm surge

� Increased damage to above ground telecommunications and electricity infrastructure due to storm events and flooding

� Increase blackouts and brown outs due to excessive demand for electricity and system failures associated with heat waves and extremely hot days

� Increased frequency and extent of bushfire disruption to telecommunications, electricity, and gas networks

� Faults in transmission lines and degradation of structures and foundations due to decreases in rainfall, increased soil salinity and increased variation in wet/dry spells

� Increased disruption of underground systems due to soil subsidence.



6.2 (g) Development in the coastal margins

Coastal margins incorporate estuaries, river and stream catchments, beaches, headlands, sand dunes and foreshores, coastal dynamics such as tides and sand movement, onshore and offshore biodiversity, human communities and infrastructure.

Changes in coastal processes will put pressure on governments and communities to manage land, activities and infrastructure in the Sunshine Coast coastal margin.

CSIRO (2007b), AGO (2007a), AGO (2007b), NZCCO (2004b), New Zealand Ministry for the Environment (NZMfE 2001) and McInnes and Hubbard (1996) identify the following sources of increased risks to infrastructure in coastal margins:

� Increased frequency of inundation and possible permanent inundation of coastal infrastructure and utilities due to storm surge and sea level rise (e.g. water, sewerage, gas, telecommunications, electricity, transportation)

� Damage to buildings, infrastructure and beach front properties due to sea level rise, storm surge or coastal erosion

� Accelerated degradation and likely loss of foreshore infrastructure due to sea level rise, storm surge or coastal erosion

� Changes in the extent of flood plains due to sea level rise and coastal erosion

� Increased impacts from storm surge due to increased storm intensity and associated increase in wave run-up

� Increased coastal erosion which could shift the coastline inland

� Impacts for new areas of land on coastal margins

� Greater risks for areas already impacted by variability in the existing climate

� Increased mobility of sand dunes following erosion, with associated implications for development immediately behind the sand dunes

� Increased demand for dredging as increased sediment is washed into waterways and estuaries

� Increased erosion and/or wash over seawalls, jetties and other coastal defences

� Increased repair costs or loss of use of boat ramps due to sea level rise, storm surge and/or coastal erosion

� Increased tidal amplitude which impacts water front structures and limits access to the water

� Changing patterns of marina development and infrastructure as a result of sea level rise (e.g. higher maintenance costs and increased dredging).



6.3 Implications for People and Society

The population of the Sunshine Coast was 295,000 people in 2006 (DIP 2008d) and is expected to reach 497,000 people at 2031; an average annual growth rate of 2.1 per cent (DIP 2008b).

Climate change has a range of implications for the current and future populations of the Sunshine Coast.

6.3 (a) A growing population

6.3 (b) Vulnerable age groups in the community

Accommodating the Sunshine Coasts future population is estimated to require an additional 6,000 hectares of developed land and an additional 100,500 private residential dwellings (Cooper 2008).

An increasing population, further urbanisation and more affluent lifestyles have potential to accelerate climate change impacts as outlined below:

� The region’s greenhouse gas emissions are likely to increase, contributing to the global emissions which are driving climate change

� Existing and future populations that settle near the coast or waterways are likely to be exposed to potentially larger climate extremes

� Workplaces and recreation areas may be exposed to the risks of larger climate extremes.

There has been a shift in the age structure of the population of the Sunshine Coast (DIP 2008d).

As demonstrated in Figure 6.1, further shifts in the population structure can be expected with an increase in the number of children under five years and adults 65 years and over.

From a climate change perspective, children under five and adults 65 years and over are particularly at risk for the following reasons:

� Poor mobility

� Vulnerable to health and safety impacts of disease outbreaks, heatwaves and storm events

� Less capacity to evacuate in times of emergency.



Figure 6.1: Change in the age distribution of the Sunshine Coast 2006 and 2026 (Source: DIP 2008b and supporting population projections)



6.3 (c) Health implications

Climate hazards can impact on human health in many ways. As indicated by Gurran, Hamin and Norman (2008), Few (2007), Cutter and Finch (2008), Rosenkoetter et. al. (2007) these impacts could include:

� Increased injury associated with floods and storms

� Increased occurrence of dengue fever and other vector-borne diseases due to increased occurrence and duration of optimal breeding conditions associated with increased temperatures

� Increased incidence of food poisoning due to inappropriate storage during warmer days and nights

� Increased illness due to changes in temperature and rainfall resulting in declines in water quality in waterways

� Increased occurrence of heat stress and related health impacts for the elderly and very young during heat waves and days with extreme temperatures

� Increased spread of water borne diseases

� Respiratory disease and psychological health impacts associated with extreme events (e.g. heatwaves, bushfires, droughts, airborne dust, pollen and pollution)

� Cancers and related illnesses resulting from exposure to increased UV radiation

� Increased obesity and other diseases relating to reduced recreational activity

� Mental health impacts associated with the trauma of emergency, illness, displacement or loss.

� These health impacts will vary across communities, depending on the health status of individuals, their perceptions of risk, and their capacity to reduce exposure.

While many of these potential impacts are well recognised, climate change is also likely to have impacts which may lead to emergent health risks and impacts such as the spread of irukandji stingers to the Sunshine Coast as coastal waters become warmer. As a result, appropriate action is recommended to minimise and manage the adverse implications for residents and tourists.



6.3 (d) Factors affecting resilience and adaptive capacity

The physical effects of climate change and subsequent adaptation and mitigation strategies have potential to put significant strain on specific sectors of the communities including the elderly, infirm, socially isolated and indigenous Australians.

A range of social and economic factors are also expected to affect the resilience and adaptive capacity of the community. As indicated by Smith and Doherty (2006), and Gurran, Squires and Blakely (2006), some of these factors include:

� Increased financial strain (from rising fuel, energy, water, property and health insurance and food costs)

� Increased pressure on existing infrastructure and services

� Limited availability of health services, particularly for the elderly

� Decreased capacity to maintain buildings, infrastructure and recreation areas associated with shifts in temperatures and extreme weather events

� Increased risk for new residents and tourists who are not informed/prepared for, climate change implications.

Amenity and liveability are also expected to be impacted by climate change as indicated by CSIRO (2007b), AGO (2007a), AGO (2007b), NZCCO (2004b), NZMfE (2001) and McInnes and Hubbard (1996):

� Lack of available potable water during extreme events (e.g. storms and floods)

� Pressure on health care infrastructure to provide a refuge for ‘at risk’ members of the community during heat waves and days of extreme heat

� Failure of essential equipment due to overheating (e.g. hospitals during heat waves and days of extreme heat)

� Reduced thermal comfort levels in buildings, particularly houses, as a result of increased mean and extreme temperatures

� Unliveable dwellings as a result of more frequent extreme events

� Unusable parks and open spaces due to the impacts of changing weather and associated declines in the quality of amenities and facilities

� Depreciation in personal property, loss of foreshore recreation areas and loss of property value due to sea level rise, storm surge or coastal erosion

� Increased insurance costs and potential inability to insure property and infrastructure against extreme events (Flood and Chiardubháin 2008).



6.4 Implications for the economy and its development

Climate change is expected to have direct and indirect implications for key industries which could affect employment.

6.4 (a) Market and competitiveness risk

6.4 (b) Impacts on systems and industries

Market and competitive risks are likely to be created as a result of direct impacts of climate change, market adaptation to climate change or shifts in public perception regarding climate change (Climate Risk Pty Ltd 2008). These risks can be largely attributed to:

� Changing markets

� Loss of productivity

� Changes in the relative value of assets

� Financial and insurance risks associated with the exposure of new housing and infrastructure to the implications of increased climate variability.

These risks may result in the relocation of businesses and/or developers which could impact employment and the regional economy.

Increased climate extremes have direct financial implications. Increased damage from natural disasters to buildings, industries, utilities, roads, transport systems, schools, hospitals and communications systems is expected (Climate Risk Pty Ltd 2008). Climate change also poses a range of indirect threats which include:

� Threats to industries reliant on significant quantities of water

� Increased health risks and potential changes to work practices for outdoors workers exposed to increased temperatures

� Increased down-time due to longer or more frequent extreme heat events.



6.4 (c) Food production

6.4 (d) Tourism and service industries

6.4 (e) Greenhouse gas emissions

Agriculture faces new threats from increased temperatures, drought and storm events. Impacts to agriculture from climate change will affect different areas in very different ways. Agricultural industries and forestry production are likely to decline by 2030, due to increased drought and fire (Depledge 2007), although some new opportunities associated with changed weather patterns may arise in some regions.

Similarly, warming sea temperatures and sudden storm events and flooding represent severe risks to marine life, with significant consequences for local fishing industries (ACG 2008).

Tourism and related hospitality and retail industries are increasingly important for coastal communities. Coastal tourism destinations can be affected if potential consumers and tourists perceive considerable risks associated with climate change such as storms, extreme heat disease outbreaks or large algal blooms.

Destinations which rely primarily upon their natural resource base, including suitable weather, to attract visitors are at greater risk from climate change than those destinations which depend on cultural or historical attractions (Gurran, Hamin and Norman 2008).

To ensure the Sunshine Coast’s future market share, Council and the wider community will need to protect and maintain the region’s natural features while taking a more sustainable approach to the delivery of tourism attractions, facilities and services.

Development of infrastructure, services and systems directly increase greenhouse gas emissions (DIP 2008c). According to the Department of Infrastructure and Planning (DIP 2008c) indirect emissions associated with development are generated through:

� Electricity and water consumption

� Waste collection and disposal

� Road and air transport for goods and materials

� Food production

� Other services.



6.4 (f) Disaster management and emergency service facilities

Climate change is expected to result in increased demand for disaster management (Carthy and Chandra 2006) due to:

� Increased incidence of flooding

� Increased incidence of heat waves and extreme heat events

� Increased impacts from storms

� Vulnerability of extensive coastal areas subjected to sea level rise and increased storm surge

� Extreme winds and other extreme weather events.

It is recommended that planning for disaster management address:

� More extensive areas and increased numbers of people exposed to the impacts of bushfire, flooding, storms and storm surge

� More injuries and damage associated with increase frequency and intensity of extreme winds, storm events, cyclones and bushfires

� Increased demand for emergency facilities and staff to assist vulnerable sectors of the community during heat waves

� Potential damage to infrastructure and emergency facilities previously considered safe

� Limited access for volunteers and emergency services during floods, storms and bushfires

� Lack of available potable water during extreme events

� Pressure to provide a refuge for ‘at risk’ members of the community during heat waves and days of extreme heat

� Potential for failure of essential equipment and electricity supplies, particularly during periods of extreme temperatures.

(Carthy and Chandra 2006, Carthy 2007)



6.5 Organisational implications

Scientists anticipate a range of indirect implications associated with climate change that impact private and public sector organisations.

6.5 (a) Planning and policy

6.5 (b) Insurance

Direct and indirect impacts of climate change are likely to increase the risk of adverse impacts on urban development and infrastructure. Risks associated with planning and policy include:

� Climate change inaction

� Inappropriate planning and policy initiatives to address climate change

� Evolving compliance issues that impact regional planning directions, planning codes, regulated industry standards and risk disclosure.

It is recommended that Council develop and implement appropriate strategies and plans to minimise exposure to adverse impacts of climate change, with strategies integrated across all Council departments, plans and policies.

The insurance industry will be increasingly exposed to climate change risks that impact land, dwellings and structures. As a result, insuring against extreme weather events could become cost-prohibitive, significantly impacting assets and investments.

The insurance industry has indicated that it will manage exposure to climate change in a number of ways (Climate Risk Pty Ltd 2008, ACG 2008). These include:

� Insurance coverage may not be offered for new and existing structures where insurance risk is extreme

� The criteria for issuing insurance policies may change, making it more difficult to obtain insurance for impacts of events such as floods and storm surges

� Landholders may be charged higher insurance premiums where the risk of climate change impact is increased but not extreme

� Insurance may not be appropriate for very slow onset climate impacts

� There may be risk of sudden depreciation of assets if insurance cover is withdrawn.



6.5 (c) Special considerations for sea level rise, storm surge and coastal erosion

Appropriate management responses to the issues of sea level rise, storm surge and coastal erosion are recommended given that:

� Changes to sea level and storm surge characteristics will increase the extent of vulnerable areas

� Extending coastal defences to new areas of impact may not be economically viable in the long-term.

There are three basic management strategies to address sea level rise, storm surge and coastal erosion: protect, accommodate or retreat (Lemmen and Warren 2004, United Nations 1999, Phillips and Jones 2005, NZMfE 2001)

� Protect: This strategy involves defensive measures and seeks to maintain shorelines in their present position, either by hard options like building or strengthening protective structures, or more natural soft options such as beach nourishment. Due to the extent of the coastline, there is unlikely to be a general pragmatic or cost-effective method of holding back the sea.

� Adapt (Accommodate): Accommodation involves continued occupation of coastal land while adjustments are made to human activities and/or infrastructure to accommodate sea level changes, and thereby reduce the overall severity of the impact. Adaptive responses can be utilised such as the elevation of buildings, and roads, modification of drainage systems and land-use change. For natural coastal and estuarine systems, it includes enhancing the existing natural protection of dunes by vegetation and fencing, or creating and planting upper inter-tidal areas and salt marshes.

� Retreat: This refers to progressively giving up threatened or vulnerable land by moving away from the coastal frontline, or by preventing future developments along the coast that may be affected by sea-level rise. With this strategy, no attempts are made to protect the land from the sea. Instead, land that is threatened by sea level rise is either abandoned when conditions become intolerable or not developed at the outset.



6.5 (d) Risks from multiple impacts

Interactions between many of the climate change risks may result in increased human vulnerability over and above what would result from any of the individual risks. If occurring simultaneously, these risks have the potential to impact household assets, employment and well-being.

While the previously identified implications of climate change are not exhaustive, they highlight some key issues which are consistent with the following advice provided by CSIRO (2007b) and Carthy (2007) such as:

� Addressing all of the implications of greater climate variability (not a select few such as sea level rise and storm surge)

� Recognising that some climate change implications will be restricted to zones while others will be generic across the region

� Using a systematic methodology to assess the true risks of each of the impacts and to determine priority areas for action

Climate change adaptation may simply add new priorities to planning that has been undertaken (such as master planning for recreation activities and optimising facility usage) while totally different approaches may be needed to address impacts such as coastal erosion.



7.0 Climate change initiatives

Climate change adaptation and mitigation involves a variety of stakeholders ranging from all levels of government and non-government organisations (NGOs) to industry and business institutions (Clark et. al. 2002, Klein 2001).

The key agencies, policy responses, programs and projects which are relevant to climate change research, mitigation and adaptation are demonstrated in Figure 7.1.

While highlighting the range of actions that are being undertaken at various spatial scales across the globe, Figure 7.1 only provides a snapshot in time of the key actions directly relevant to the Sunshine Coast.

The following sections provide brief descriptions of the responses and programs which are considered most relevant to the development of a climate change response for the Sunshine Coast.

Figure 7.1: Key players, key responses and key programs and projects which are relevant to climate change research and policy

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7.1 Key international responses and programs

7.1 (a) Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC)

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is a scientific intergovernmental body tasked to evaluate the risk of climate change caused by human activity.

The IPCC does not carry out research, nor does it monitor climate or related phenomena. A main activity of the IPCC is publishing special reports on topics relevant to the implementation of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), an international treaty that acknowledges the possibility of harmful climate change. The IPCC bases its assessment mainly on peer reviewed and published scientific literature.

7.1 (b) United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change sets an overall framework for intergovernmental efforts to tackle the challenge posed by climate change. It recognizes that the climate system is a shared resource whose stability can be affected by industrial and other emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. The Convention enjoys near universal membership, with 192 countries having ratified.

Under the Convention, governments:

� gather and share information on greenhouse gas emissions, national policies and best practices

� launch national strategies for addressing greenhouse gas emissions and adapting to expected impacts, including the provision of financial and technological support to developing countries

� cooperate in preparing for adaptation to the impacts of climate change

International negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC) are significant in that they are likely to: � impose obligations on governments and the community in order to achieve targets set by

international agreements

� provide opportunities for local government associations to advocate for targeted local responses to climate change

� produce better recognition of the role of local government in addressing climate change.

Council, the community and business need to be aware of and responsive to the international negotiations and subsequent international agreements.

7.1 (c) The Kyoto Protocol

The Kyoto Protocol is an international agreement linked to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The major feature of the Kyoto Protocol is that it sets binding emission reduction



targets for 37 industrialised countries (including Australia) and the European community for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

Emission reduction targets are expected to be achieved through cost-effective national measures or the use of market-based mechanisms identified within the protocol itself. National emissions inventories are utilised to monitor and report on greenhouse gas mission trends.

7.1 (d) ICLEI - Local Governments for Sustainability

ICLEI (International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives) - Local Governments for Sustainability is an international association of local governments as well as national and regional local government organisations that have made a commitment to sustainable development. ICLEI provides technical consulting, training, and information services to build capacity, share knowledge, and support local government in the implementation of sustainable development at the local level.

7.2 Federal approaches

The Federal Government is utilising a number of approaches to address climate change mitigation and adaptation. The Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency is the primary Federal Government agency responsible for responding to climate change.

7.2 (a) Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)

The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) is Australia's national science agency and one of the largest and most diverse research agencies in the world. The CSIRO is delivering research that will provide comprehensive, rigorous science to help Australia understand, respond to and plan for a changing climate.

7.2 (b) National Climate Change Adaptation Framework

The National Adaptation Framework has been developed for the Council of Australian Governments (COAG) as part of its plan of Collaborative Action on Climate Change. The long-term goal of the framework is to position Australia to reduce the risks of climate change impacts and realise any opportunities. In the medium term (five to seven years), targeted strategies are intended to build our capacity to deal with climate change impacts and reduce vulnerability in key sectors and regions.

The framework recognises that risks should be managed by those best equipped to understand the context and likely consequences of action, and that there is a clear need to build capacity at local and regional scales. The role for business and the community is also recognised and the pursuit of partnership approaches is recommended to manage risks and identify opportunities.



7.2 (c) National Greenhouse and Energy Reporting System (NGERS)

Through the implementation of the National Greenhouse and Energy Reporting Act 2007, the Federal Government has introduced a national reporting scheme for greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumption. Across Australia, individual facilities and total corporate greenhouse gas emissions have been targeted with reporting obligations applied by legislated thresholds to high energy users and large emitters of greenhouse gases.

The NGERS requires high energy users to:

� Incorporate NGERS reporting obligations into standard end of financial year corporate reporting with relevant auditing of statements regarding greenhouse gas emissions

� Develop or adjust governance systems to address the statutory obligations though relevant monitoring, reporting and auditing mechanisms.

While the Sunshine Coast Council is not subject to NGERS reporting at the time of publishing this Study, the current thresholds are expected to be amended on commencement of a Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme, at which time it will most likely be applicable for Council.

7.2 (d) Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS)

The Federal Government’s Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme is intended to introduce a cost for carbon pollution into the economic market which, in turn, is intended to send a price signal which prompts companies to reduce their energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions.

Within the CPRS white paper, the Federal Government has committed Australia to a long-term target of a 60 per cent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from 2000 levels by 2050.

Sunshine Coast Council is expected to have mandatory obligations under the scheme when it is established because it operates facilities for waste to landfill that produce more than the threshold for inclusion under such a scheme.

7.2 (e) Renewable Energy Target Scheme

The Australian Government set a target to achieve a 20 per cent share of renewables in Australia’s electricity mix by 2020. To achieve this, the Government is supporting the deployment of renewable energy in Australia's electricity supply through the national Renewable Energy Target (RET) scheme.



7.2 (f) Climate Adaptation National Research Flagship

CSIRO’s Climate Adaptation National Research Flagship is developing adaptation responses to counter the expected damaging effects of climate change. It will analyse future climate changes in Australia, deliver strategies to manage their impacts, and develop new ways to combat and even benefit from these challenges.

7.2 (g) National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility

The National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility is hosted by Griffith University. The Facility will lead the Australian research community in a major, national inter-disciplinary effort to generate information that decision-makers need to manage the risks of climate change impacts.

The Facility is supported by research networks which are being established to investigate seven core focus areas:

� Terrestrial biodiversity

� Water resources and freshwater biodiversity

� Marine biodiversity and resources

� Settlements and infrastructure

� Disaster management and emergency services

� Social, economic and institutional dimensions

� Health.

7.2 (h) Local Adaptation Pathways (LAP) grants

Through the Local Adaptation Pathways (LAP) program, the Australian Government is providing funding to help Councils undertake climate change risk assessments and develop action plans to prepare for local impacts of climate change. Sunshine Coast Council has already received funding from this program to identify risks to its infrastructure and assets and develop adaptation options.



7.3 State responses

7.3 (a) ClimateQ: toward a greener Queensland

ClimateQ: toward a greener Queensland consolidates and updates the policy approach outlined in the ClimateSmart 2050 and ClimateSmart Adaptation Plan 2007-2012. It takes into account the latest national and international science and policy.

The report presents the Queensland Government's response to the challenge of climate change and presents investments and policies to enable the government, community and industry to move to a low carbon future. A range of strategies have been identified. Council should support the implementation of those strategies which are relevant to the Sunshine Coast.

7.3 (b) Toward Q2: Tomorrow’s Queensland

The Queensland Government has framed its 2020 vision for Queensland in its policy document ‘Toward Q2: Tomorrow’s Queensland’. One of its five ambitions to mitigate climate change is to establish a ‘green environment’. To achieve this goal, the Queensland Government has set a target to ‘cut by one-third Queenslanders’ carbon footprint with reduced car and electricity use.’

7.3 (c) Draft Queensland Coastal Plan 2009

The Queensland Government has released the Draft Queensland Coastal Plan 2009 for public consultation.

The Draft Queensland Coastal plan contains:

� A Draft State Policy Coastal Management

� A Draft State Planning Policy Coastal Protection that is a statutory instrument under the Integrated planning Act (IPA)

The Draft Queensland Coastal Plan 2009 and its supporting policies address the risks posed to communities as a result of costal hazards, including the implications of climate change. Specific planning provisions are provided related to sea level rise and its implications for coastal erosion, storm tide inundation and permanent inundation.



7.4 Regional policy responses and initiatives

7.4 (a) South East Queensland (SEQ) Regional Plan 2009–2031

The SEQ Regional Plan 2009-2031 provides a framework for managing growth, land use and development in SEQ. Climate change is included in the plan through two key climate change approaches:

� Reducing greenhouse gas emissions

� Climate change adaptation.

Development and implementation of an SEQ Regional Plan Climate Change Program is a key initiative identified in the Regional Plan to address mitigation and adaptation. The Program identifies a range of existing actions (e.g. the Queensland Solar Hot Water Program and reviews of the State Coastal Management Plan) as well as a number of new initiatives (e.g. development of guidelines for new development) which the State Government will use to increase resilience to climate change across SEQ.

7.4 (b) Southeast Queensland Climate Adaptation Research Initiative (SEQCARI)

This three year research program will assess SEQ's vulnerability to climate change, and develop practical, cost-effective strategies to help the SEQ region to adapt. State and local governments, industries and community groups will be key participants in the research program.

7.4 (c) Sustainability Research Centre - University of the Sunshine Coast

The University of the Sunshine Coast has a number of units which are actively involved in research focused on climate change, sustainable communities and sustainable environments.



7.5 Sunshine Coast Council initiatives

Council has been a member of the ICLEI Cities for Climate Protection (CCP) program since the late 1990s. Figure 7.2 provides a summary of the key climate change adaptation and mitigation activities which have been undertaken by local government on the Sunshine Coast during this time.

Figure 7.2: Key climate change adaptation and mitigation activities which have been undertaken on the Sunshine Coast

As well as implementing a range of corporate initiatives, Council has initiated a number of climate change community projects which include:

� Living Smart

� ecoBiz

� Travelsmart.



7.5 (a) Corporate Carbon Accounting and Management Project

A corporate Carbon Accounting and Management Project was developed by Council to:

� Identify Council’s carbon footprint

� Evaluate emission reduction opportunities

� Position the Council to respond to the CPRS and mandatory greenhouse and energy reporting

� Address climate change

� Lead by example.

Of the six phases of carbon management, the project covered the first four.

Council’s estimated emissions inventory for 2006/07 was 270,000 tonnes of CO2e which comprised approximately 66 per cent of direct emissions from waste to landfill, and 23 per cent of indirect emissions from electricity consumption.

A Marginal Abatement Cost Curve undertaken to identify carbon reduction opportunities for Council illustrates that energy efficiency is the most cost-effective approach to reduce emissions, associated with positive returns. The curve also highlights that the waste to landfill emission reduction technologies will have the most impact on emission reductions.



These opportunities need to be prioritised, costed and implemented as part of the overall plan for Council to achieve carbon neutrality.



8.0 Glossary

Adaptation Adjustments in human or natural systems, including changes in behaviour, institutional structure or policy, which are responsible to actual or expected climate changes and have long-term implications

Adaptive Capacity

Describes the ability of built, natural, and human systems to accommodate changes in climate (including climate variability and climate extremes) with minimal potential damage or cost.

Alternative Energy

Energy derived from non-traditional sources (eg., solar, hydro-electric, wind, compressed natural gas).

Biodiversity Biodiversity commonly refers to a variety of species and ecosystems on earth and the ecological processes of which they are a part.

Carbon Dioxide This is a naturally occurring gas and is expressed as CO2. It is also a by-product of burning fossil fuels and biomass, as well as land use changes and other industrial processes and is the principal human-induced greenhouse gas that affects the earth’s atmosphere.

Carbon Dioxide Equivalent

Greenhouse gases have differing radiative properties. Emissions are expressed in terms of their global warming potential or specifically as CO2 equivalents (CO2e). For example, methane is 21 times more potent than CO2 as a greenhouse gas, and so one tonne of methane is expressed as 21 tonnes of CO2e emitted.

Carbon Footprint

A carbon footprint is an inventory of all greenhouse gases.

Carbon Neutral

A voluntary mechanism where an activity, event, household, business or organisation is responsible for achieving zero carbon emissions by balancing a measured amount of carbon equivalent (CO2e) released with an equivalent amount sequestered or offset. Best practice for organisations and individuals seeking carbon neutral status entails reducing and/or avoiding carbon emissions first so that only unavoidable emissions are offset.

Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme

The main way the Federal Government proposes to achieve Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions reduction target under the Kyoto Protocol is via a Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme. This scheme has two distinct elements: the cap on carbon emissions and the ability to trade carbon permits. In general the Federal Government will set a cap on the total amount of carbon pollution allowed in the economy with permits issued up to that annual cap. Industries that emit more than 25,000 tonnes of greenhouse gases on specified thresholds annually will be required to obtain a pollution permit for every tonne of greenhouse gas that they emit – providing a strong incentive for emitters to reduce pollution.

Climate

The average and variations of weather in a region over long periods of time. The classical period is 30 years, as defined by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). These quantities are most often surface variables such as temperature, rainfall, and wind. Climate in a wider sense is the state, including a statistical description, of the climate system.

Climate Change This is a descriptive term which encompasses both natural and human induced changes to the climate.

Climate hazards These are significant natural hazards influenced by weather and climate such as cyclones, storms and floods. Many natural hazards are climate hazards, with key exceptions being earthquakes and tsunamis

Conventional Oil

A term which refers to crude (or unrefined) oil that is extracted from underground or under the sea floor. Conventional oil currently makes up approximately 85 per cent of all liquid fuel production, the other 15 per cent being unconventional oil.

‘Duty of care’ ‘Duty of care is a standard of reasonable care provided while performing any acts that could foreseeably harm others.



Ecosystems Natural units consisting of all plants, animals, humans and micro-organisms (biotic) in an area functioning together with all of the non-living physical factors (abiotic) of the environment.

Energy Transition

Energy transition is the period of time when the mix of energy sources used to power a country’s economy changes. The next energy transition for the Sunshine Coast is preferably towards renewable energy that powers a localised and low carbon economy.

Global Warming

This is the hypothesis that the earth's temperature is being increased, in part, because of emissions of greenhouse gases associated with human activities, such as burning fossil fuels, biomass burning, cement manufacture, cow and sheep rearing, deforestation, and other land-use changes. Global warming and climate change are not interchangeable. Global warming refers to the increase of the Earth's average surface temperature, due to a build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, while climate change is a broader term that refers to long-term changes in climate, including average temperature and precipitation.

Global Circulation Model

Global circulation models (GCMs) are complex computer programs that consider a range of factors to mathematically simulate global climate. They are based on mathematical equations derived from our knowledge of the physics that govern the earth –atmosphere system. Global circulation models may also be referred to as Global Climate models.

Greenhouse Gases

The term greenhouse gases refer to a number of gases that contribute to the greenhouse effect. While carbon dioxide is the most commonly known greenhouse gas, other greenhouse gases include methane (CH4), Nitrous Oxide (N20), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) and hydrofluourocarbons (HFCs). Changes in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have been attributed to the key influence driving climate change via a process called the enhanced greenhouse effect.

Gross Regional Product/ Gross State Product/ Gross Domestic Product

Terms which refer to the market value of all final goods and services produced within a Region, State or Nation in a given period of time.

Impacts (of climate change)

The effects of climate change on natural, productive and human systems.

International Transition Towns Movement

International grassroots initiative that encourages the formation of local transition towns that, through community engagement, can build community resilience in response to the challenges of peak oil, climate change.

IPCC

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is a United Nations scientific body that provides authoritative scientific information from approximately 4,000 of the world’s leading climate scientists principally in the atmospheric sciences, but also comprising social, economic and other environmental components potentially impacted by climate change. It provides scientific information from global climate modelling systems.

Kyoto Protocol The Kyoto Protocol is a set of rules under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The Convention was a major step forward in tackling the problem of global warming. Australia became a full member of the Kyoto Protocol in March 2008.

Liquids Refers to ‘liquid fuels’, a commonly used term which refers to both ‘conventional’ oil as well as ‘unconventional’ oil.

Locational Vulnerability

An assessment that determines which residential locations will be the most vulnerable to rising fuel prices and increasing transportation costs.

Low Carbon A low carbon economy or low fossil fuel economy is a concept that refers to an economy which has a minimal output of greenhouse gas.

Low Oil A low oil economy refers to an economy which has a minimal use of oil.



Methane (CH4)

This one of the six GHGs to be mitigated under the Kyoto Protocol, it has a relatively short atmospheric lifetime of 10 ± 2 years. Primary sources of CH4 are landfills, coal mines, paddy fields, natural gas systems, and livestock (e.g. cows and sheep). It has a global warming potential of 21 (100 year time horizon).

Mitigation Activities that are undertaken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

National Greenhouse and Energy Reporting System

A nationally consistent framework for greenhouse gases and energy reporting within the National Greenhouse and Energy Reporting Act 2007. This provides the foundation for the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme.

Nitrous Oxide (N20)

One of the six greenhouse gas emissions to be curbed under the Kyoto Protocol, N20 is generated by burning fossil fuels and the manufacture of fertilizer. It has a global warming potential 310 times that of CO2 (100 year time horizon).

No Regrets A term used to describe actions that result in greenhouse gas limitations and abatement, and that also make good environmental and economic sense in their own right.

OECD

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is part of the system of Western international institutions developed after World War II and is the main forum for monitoring and evaluating economic trends and developments in its 30 member countries. Australia joined the OECD in 1971.

Oil Supply ‘Crunch’

Refers to the increasing upward pressure on global oil prices as a result of increasing demand for oil globally not being matched by increasing oil supplies globally.

Oil Vulnerability (assessment or analysis)

Is the examination of the susceptibility of an economy, industry sector or household to harm from peak oil. Vulnerability is a function of an economy, industry sector or household’s sensitivity to rising oil prices and its capacity to adapt.

Offsets Reductions or removals of greenhouse gas emissions that are used to counterbalance emissions elsewhere in the economy.

Peak Oil The term Peak Oil is when the rate of global oil production reaches a peak i.e. it is the point at which the extraction of conventional crude oil from all oil fields in the world is at its maximum rate and signals when the rate of oil being produced will begin to decline.

Precautionary Principle

A term used to describe an approach where the lack of full scientific certainty is not used as a reason for postponing cost-effective measures where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage.

Regional Energy Production Opportunities

An assessment of the potential for energy production options that would be economically viable on the Sunshine Coast. This would include the production of both alternative liquid fuels and electricity.

Renewable Energy

Renewable energy is energy generated from natural resources such as sunlight, wind, rain, tides, geothermal heat, which are renewable (naturally replenished)

Resilience This is the ability to absorb disturbances, to be changed and then to reorganise and still have the same identify (retain the same basic structure and ways of functioning). It includes the ability to learn from the disturbance.

Risk The probability that a situation will produce harm under specific conditions. Risk is generally defined as a combination of the likelihood of an occurrence and the consequence of that occurrence.

Scenario A term used to describe a plausible description of how the future may develop, based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about key relationships and driving forces (e.g. rate of technology change).



Sector A general term used to describe any resource, ecological system, species, management area, activity, or other area of interest that may be affected by climate change.

Sensitivity The degree to which a built, natural, or human system is directly or indirectly affected by changes in climate conditions (e.g. temperature and rainfall) or specific climate change impacts (e.g. sea level rise, increased water temperature).

SimCLIM

A climate change model where outputs and projections are generated by adjusting local climate variables in accordance with the patterns associated with a selected global circulation model and climate change scenario. Hadley GCM was used as the basis for the local projections in the Strategy.

SRES scenarios

These are emission scenarios developed by Naki�enovi� and Swart (2000) and used, among others, as a basis for some of the climate projections shown in Chapter 10 of the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) produced by the IPCC (IPCC 2000).

Systems

This refers to the built, natural, and human networks that provide important services or activities within a community or region. Built systems can refer to networks of facilities, buildings, and transportation infrastructure such as roads and bridges. Natural systems can refer to ecological networks of fish, wildlife, and natural resources like water. Human systems can refer to networks of public health clinics, courts, and government.

Weather

The weather is a set of all extant phenomena in a given atmosphere at a given time. It also includes interactions with the hydrosphere. The term usually refers to the activity of these phenomena over short periods (hours or days), as opposed to the term climate, which refers to the average atmospheric conditions over longer periods of time.

Unconventional Oil

Refers to oil shales; oil sands-based synthetic crude and derivative products; coal-based liquid supplies; biomass-based liquid supplies; and liquids arising from chemical processing of natural gas.

Vulnerability This is the susceptibility of a system to harm. Vulnerability is a function of a system’s sensitivity and the capacity of that system to adapt.



9.0 Acronyms

AR4 Fourth Assessment Report CO2 carbon dioxide CSIRO Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization CH4 Methane ENSO El Niño-Southern Oscillation GCM General Circulation Model GHG greenhouse gas IPCC Intergovernmental Panel for climate Change N2O Nitrous Oxide O3 Ozone ppb parts per billion ppm parts per million UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change



10.0 References Abbs D (2008) SEQ, Climate Change and Severe Weather Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Presentation to the SEQ Regional Plan Climate Change Steering Committee and working groups 28 may 2008

Abbs D, McInnes K and Rafter T (2007) The impact of climate change on extreme rainfall and coastal sea levels over south-east Queensland. Part 2: A High-Resolution Modelling Study of the Effect of Climate Change on the Intensity of Extreme Rainfall Events

Adger W.N. (2003) Social Capital, Collective Action, and Adaptation to Climate Change Economic Geography 79(4): 387–404, 2003.

Adger WN and Vincent K (2005) Uncertainty in adaptive capacity. Comptes Rendus Geosciences Volume 337, Issue 4, March 2005, Pages 399-410

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