climate change, biodiversity loss and ecosystem ... · degradation are environment, development and...

Climate change, biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation: implications for food, water and

human security

Robert T. WatsonRobert T. WatsonChief Scientific Advisor at Chief Scientific Advisor at DefraDefra

Strategic Director of the Tyndall Centre, UEAStrategic Director of the Tyndall Centre, UEA

Royal Society, ScotlandRoyal Society, ScotlandEdinburgEdinburg

December 10, 2009 December 10, 2009

Climate change, loss of biodiversityand ecosystem degradation

• Climate change, loss of biodiversity and ecosystem degradation are environment, development and security issues, i.e., they undermine:

• food, water and human security• the economy (loss of natural capital)• poverty alleviation and the livelihoods of the poor• human health• personal, national and regional security

• Climate change and ecosystem degradation are inter-and intra-generational equity issues:

• developing countries and poor people in developing countries are the most vulnerable

• the actions of today will affect future generations

Climate ChangeClimate Change

Climate ChangeClimate Change

•• The composition of the atmosphere, and the The composition of the atmosphere, and the EarthEarth’’s climate has changed, mostly due to s climate has changed, mostly due to human activities (highly certain), and is human activities (highly certain), and is projected to continue to change, globally and projected to continue to change, globally and regionally:regionally:

•• Increased greenhouse gases and aerosolsIncreased greenhouse gases and aerosols•• Warmer temperatures Warmer temperatures •• Changing precipitation patterns Changing precipitation patterns –– spatially and temporallyspatially and temporally•• Higher sea levels Higher sea levels –– higher storm surgeshigher storm surges•• Retreating mountain glaciersRetreating mountain glaciers•• Melting of the Greenland ice capMelting of the Greenland ice cap•• Reduced arctic sea iceReduced arctic sea ice•• More frequent extreme weather eventsMore frequent extreme weather events

•• heat waves, floods and droughtsheat waves, floods and droughts•• More intense cyclonic events, More intense cyclonic events, e,ge,g., hurricanes in the Atlantic., hurricanes in the Atlantic

Climate is Climate is WarmingWarming

Understanding and Attributing Climate ChangeUnderstanding and Attributing Climate Change

Surface TemperatureSurface Temperature

PrecipitationPrecipitation

Percent change in runoff by 2050

Many of the major Many of the major ““foodfood--bowlsbowls”” of the world are of the world are projected to become significantly drierprojected to become significantly drier

Regional variations (2080, medium emissions)Regional variations (2080, medium emissions)

Even central estimates of changes to average summer temperature Even central estimates of changes to average summer temperature are are significant:significant:Maps show a gradient between parts of southern of England, whereMaps show a gradient between parts of southern of England, where they can they can

be 5be 5ººC or more, and northern Scotland, where they can be somewhat lesC or more, and northern Scotland, where they can be somewhat less s than 3than 3ººC. C.

Change Change relative to relative to 19611961--1990 1990 averageaverage

Maps are Maps are of of probability probability not not ‘‘forecastsforecasts’’

Projected UK Summer TemperaturesProjected UK Summer Temperatures

observationsobservationsHadCM3 MediumHadCM3 Medium--High (SRES A2)High (SRES A2)

20032003

2040s2040s

2060s2060s

Tem

pera

ture

an

om

aly

(Tem

pera

ture

an

om

aly

(w

rtw

rt1

96

11

96

1-- 9

0)

9

0)

°°CC

The The central estimate central estimate of changes in of changes in annual mean precipitation are annual mean precipitation are within a few percent of zero within a few percent of zero everywhere. everywhere.

In winter, precipitation increases In winter, precipitation increases are in the range +10% to +30% are in the range +10% to +30% over the majority of the country. over the majority of the country. Increases are smaller than this in Increases are smaller than this in some parts of the country, some parts of the country, generally on higher ground. generally on higher ground.

In summer, there is a general In summer, there is a general south to north gradient, from south to north gradient, from decreases of almost 40% in SW decreases of almost 40% in SW England to almost no change in England to almost no change in Shetland. Shetland.

Changes to annual, winter and summer mean Changes to annual, winter and summer mean precipitation (medium emissions, 2080s)precipitation (medium emissions, 2080s)

Change relative to 1961Change relative to 1961--1990 1990 averageaverageMaps are of probability not Maps are of probability not ‘‘forecastsforecasts’’

Projected Impacts of HumanProjected Impacts of Human--induced Climate Changeinduced Climate Change

Decrease agricultural productivity for almost any warming in theDecrease agricultural productivity for almost any warming in thetropics and subtropics and sub--tropics and adverse impacts on fisheries tropics and adverse impacts on fisheries –– food food securitysecurity

Decrease water availability and water quality in many aridDecrease water availability and water quality in many arid-- and and semisemi--arid regions arid regions –– increased risk of floods and droughts in many increased risk of floods and droughts in many regions regions –– water securitywater security

Adversely effect ecological systems, especially coral reefs, andAdversely effect ecological systems, especially coral reefs, andexacerbate the loss of biodiversityexacerbate the loss of biodiversity

Increase the incidence of vectorIncrease the incidence of vector-- (e.g., malaria and dengue) and (e.g., malaria and dengue) and waterwater--borne (e.g., cholera) diseases, heat stress mortality, threats borne (e.g., cholera) diseases, heat stress mortality, threats nutrition in developing countries, increase in extreme weather enutrition in developing countries, increase in extreme weather event vent deathsdeaths

Adverse effects on human settlements due to flooding, coastal Adverse effects on human settlements due to flooding, coastal erosion and sea level riseerosion and sea level rise

Food Security

Food Production•• Uneven benefits:Uneven benefits:

One billion people One billion people still hungry still hungry Hunger has increased Hunger has increased in several parts of the in several parts of the world world –– SSASSAInstitutional and Institutional and policy environmentspolicy environments

•• Significant Significant environmental environmental degradation degradation

GHG emissionsGHG emissionsloss of biodiversityloss of biodiversityland and water land and water degradationdegradation

Food SecurityFood SecurityDrivers of the recent increase in food pricesDrivers of the recent increase in food prices• Poor harvests due to variable weather - possibly related to

human-induced climate change• Increased use of biofuels• Increased demand , especially for meat• High energy prices, hence higher fertilizer prices• Speculation on the commodity markets• Export bans from some large exporting countries

The future ChallengeThe future Challenge• The demand for food will double within the next 25-50 years,

primarily in developing countries, and the type and nutritional quality of food demanded will change

• We need sustained growth in the agricultural sector to feed the world, enhance rural livelihoods and stimulate economic growth, while meeting food safety standards

Global Context for Food SecurityGlobal Context for Food Security

Less labor Less labor –– disease, rural to urban migrationdisease, rural to urban migrationLess water Less water –– competition from other sectorscompetition from other sectorsLess arable land Less arable land –– competition from energy cropscompetition from energy cropsHigh energy pricesHigh energy pricesDistorted trade policies Distorted trade policies –– OECD subsidiesOECD subsidiesLand policy conflictsLand policy conflictsLoss of biodiversity: genetic, species and Loss of biodiversity: genetic, species and ecosystemecosystemIncreasing levels of air and water pollutionIncreasing levels of air and water pollutionA changing climateA changing climate

Climate induced percentage change in Climate induced percentage change in production in 2050: Irrigated Riceproduction in 2050: Irrigated Rice

Global production = Global production = --27%27% NCAR A2NCAR A2

Climate induced percentage change in Climate induced percentage change in production in 2050: production in 2050: RainfedRainfed Rice Rice


Impact on Rice Production

Page 20

Climate induced percentage change in Climate induced percentage change in production in 2050: Irrigated Wheatproduction in 2050: Irrigated Wheat


Climate induced percentage change in Climate induced percentage change in production in 2050: production in 2050: RainfedRainfed WheatWheat


Impact on Wheat Production

Page 23

Climate induced percentage change in Climate induced percentage change in production in 2050: Irrigated Maizeproduction in 2050: Irrigated Maize


Climate induced percentage change in Climate induced percentage change in production in 2050: production in 2050: RainfedRainfed MaizeMaize


Impact on Maize ProductionImpact on Maize Production

Page 26

Climate change impact: Child malnutrition

Part of the silent

Part of the silent

climate change

climate change

health crisis

health crisis

Source: Nelson et al. (IFPRI) 2009Source: Nelson et al. (IFPRI) 2009..

Impact on Calorie Availability Impact on Calorie Availability

Page 28

Impact on International Food Prices

Page 29

Agricultural S&T ChallengesAgricultural S&T Challenges

to produce, by region, the diversified array of crops, livestockto produce, by region, the diversified array of crops, livestock, fish, , fish, forests, biomass (for energy) and commodities needed over the forests, biomass (for energy) and commodities needed over the next 50 years in an environmentally and socially sustainable next 50 years in an environmentally and socially sustainable manner:manner:

address water deficit problems, e.g., through improved address water deficit problems, e.g., through improved drought tolerant crops, irrigation technologies, etcdrought tolerant crops, irrigation technologies, etcimprove the temperature tolerance of cropsimprove the temperature tolerance of cropscombat new or emerging agricultural pests or diseasescombat new or emerging agricultural pests or diseasesaddress soil fertility, address soil fertility, salinzationsalinzation of soils and improve nutrient of soils and improve nutrient cyclingcyclingreduce external and energyreduce external and energy--intensive inputsintensive inputsreduce GHG emissions while maintaining productivityreduce GHG emissions while maintaining productivityimprove the nutritional quality of foodimprove the nutritional quality of foodreduce post harvest lossesreduce post harvest lossesimprove food safetyimprove food safety

Explicit pro-poor climate change policies needed at all levels

Climate Climate changechange

Extreme Extreme weather weather eventsevents

Demographic Demographic changechange

Conflict Conflict and crisesand crises

•• Crop and livestock selectionCrop and livestock selection•• Cropping and grazing patternCropping and grazing pattern•• Irrigation/watering technologyIrrigation/watering technology

•• Water allocation policyWater allocation policy•• Infrastructure investmentInfrastructure investment•• Land use changeLand use change

•• Agriculture and water price policiesAgriculture and water price policies•• Investment, subsidy, tax policiesInvestment, subsidy, tax policies•• Trade policiesTrade policies••

••Regional trade policiesRegional trade policies•• Global climate policiesGlobal climate policies•• Global trading patternsGlobal trading patterns

GLOBAL CHANGE ADAPTATION STRATEGIES SPATIAL SCAGLOBAL CHANGE ADAPTATION STRATEGIES SPATIAL SCALESLES

Global levelGlobal level

Regional levelRegional level

National levelNational level

Farm levelFarm level

Basin levelBasin level

Source: IFPRI, Source: IFPRI, RinglerRingler 20072007.

Food Security: Options for ActionFood Security: Options for ActionMost of todayMost of today’’s hunger problems can be addressed with appropriate s hunger problems can be addressed with appropriate use of current technologies, emphasizing agrouse of current technologies, emphasizing agro--ecological practices (e.g., ecological practices (e.g., no/low till, IPM and INRM), coupled with decreased postno/low till, IPM and INRM), coupled with decreased post--harvest harvest losses losses

Advanced biotechnologies may be needed to address future demandAdvanced biotechnologies may be needed to address future demands s for increased productivity and emerging issues such as climate cfor increased productivity and emerging issues such as climate change hange and new plant and animal pests and new plant and animal pests –– but the risks and benefits must be but the risks and benefits must be fully understood fully understood

Place the farmer in the middle Place the farmer in the middle –– understand their needs and integrate understand their needs and integrate as appropriate their local and traditional knowledge with formalas appropriate their local and traditional knowledge with formalAKSTD AKSTD –– innovation involving all relevant stakeholders along the innovation involving all relevant stakeholders along the complete food chaincomplete food chain

Food Security: Options for ActionFood Security: Options for ActionRecognize the critical role of women and empower them (e.g., Recognize the critical role of women and empower them (e.g., education, property rights, access to financing) education, property rights, access to financing)

Reform international trade, e.g., eliminate OECD production subsReform international trade, e.g., eliminate OECD production subsidies, idies, eliminate tariff escalation on processed products, recognize theeliminate tariff escalation on processed products, recognize the special special needs of the least developed countries through nonneeds of the least developed countries through non--reciprocal market reciprocal market access access

Provide payments to the farmer for maintaining and enhancing Provide payments to the farmer for maintaining and enhancing ecosystem servicesecosystem services

Increase public and private sector investment in research and Increase public and private sector investment in research and development, extension services, and weather and market informatdevelopment, extension services, and weather and market informationion

We can feed the world with affordable food, while providing a viWe can feed the world with affordable food, while providing a viable able income for the farmer, but businessincome for the farmer, but business--asas--usual will not workusual will not work

Water Security

The Global Water CrisisWater scarcity is growing - by 2025 more than half of the world’s population is projected to live under conditions of severe water stress

Water quality is declining in many parts of the world

70% of all freshwater is used for irrigation - 15 - 35% of irrigation withdrawals exceed supply rates and are therefore unsustainable

50-60% of wetlands have been lost

Water has the lowest rate of cost recovery among all infrastructure sectors (about 20%)

Human-induced climate change is projected to decrease water quality and availability in many arid- and semi-arid regions, and increase the threats posed by floods and droughts in most parts of the world

Options for ActionImplementation of the Dublin PrinciplesImplementation of the Dublin Principles

•• Ecological Principle:Ecological Principle: River basin management River basin management (often transnational); multi(often transnational); multi--sectoralsectoralmanagement, (agriculture, industry, management, (agriculture, industry, households); land and water must be managed households); land and water must be managed togethertogether

•• Institutional Principle:Institutional Principle: All stakeholders, state, All stakeholders, state, private sector and civil society, especially private sector and civil society, especially women, must be involved in the management women, must be involved in the management ––principle of principle of subsidiaritysubsidiarity –– action at the lowest action at the lowest levellevel

•• Instrument Principle:Instrument Principle: Incentives and economic Incentives and economic principles to improve allocation and enhance principles to improve allocation and enhance quality quality -- pricing policiespricing policies

Biodiversity and ecosystem Biodiversity and ecosystem servicesservices

Drivers of biodiversity loss growingDrivers of biodiversity loss growing

Unprecedented change: Ecosystems

Consequences of Ecosystem Consequences of Ecosystem Change for Human WellChange for Human Well--beingbeing

4141

Ecosystems and the production of services Ecosystems and the production of services Physical and chemical inputsPhysical and chemical inputs PeoplePeople

Clean Clean waterwaterprovisionprovision

Food Food productionproduction

Water Water regulationregulation

TreesTrees

Final ecosystem Final ecosystem servicesservices

Other capitalOther capitalinputsinputs

Drinking Drinking waterwater

Cereals, Cereals, meat, etc.meat, etc.

Flood Flood protectionprotection

TimberTimber

Goods/BenefitGoods/Benefitss

££

££

££

££

Value of Value of goods...goods...

££

££

££

££

...of which ...of which ES valueES value

Primary and intermediate Primary and intermediate processesprocesses

PollinationPollination

NutrientNutrientcyclingcycling

SoilSoilFormation Formation

PrimaryPrimaryproductionproduction

BiomassBiomass

BiodiversityBiodiversity

Adapted from Fisher Adapted from Fisher et alet al 20082008

4242

Valuation of goods and ecosystem services Valuation of goods and ecosystem services

Primary productionPrimary production

DecompositionDecomposition

Soil formationSoil formation

Nutrient cyclingNutrient cycling

Water cyclingWater cycling

WeatheringWeathering

Climate regulation Climate regulation

Pollination Pollination

Evolutionary processes Evolutionary processes

Ecological interactions Ecological interactions

Crops, livestock, fishCrops, livestock, fish

Water availabilityWater availability

TreesTrees

PeatPeat

Wild species diversityWild species diversity

Drinking waterDrinking waterFoodFood

FibreFibreEnergyEnergyNatural medicineNatural medicine

££££££££££££££££££££££££££

££££££££££££££££££££££££££

Final ecosystem Final ecosystem servicesservices GoodsGoods

Value of Value of goods...goods...

……ES ES valuevalue

Primary & intermediate Primary & intermediate processesprocesses

PeoplePeopleOther capital Other capital inputsinputs

Natural enemiesNatural enemies

DetoxificationDetoxification

Local climate Local climate

Waste breakdownWaste breakdown

Purified waterPurified water

Stabilising vegetation Stabilising vegetation

Meaningful places Meaningful places

Wild species diversity Wild species diversity

Flood controlFlood control

Equable climate Equable climate

Disease controlDisease control

Pollution controlPollution control

Erosion controlErosion control

Good healthGood health

Health and Health and WellWell--beingbeing

Change the economic background to decisionChange the economic background to decision--making to implement ecosystemmaking to implement ecosystem--based based

activitiesactivities

•• Make sure the value of all ecosystem services, not just those Make sure the value of all ecosystem services, not just those bought and sold in the market, are taken into account when bought and sold in the market, are taken into account when making decisionsmaking decisions

•• Remove subsidies to agriculture, fisheries, and energyRemove subsidies to agriculture, fisheries, and energy

•• Payments to landowners in return for managing their lands in Payments to landowners in return for managing their lands in ways that protect and enhance ecosystem servicesways that protect and enhance ecosystem services

•• Appropriate pricing policies for natural resources, e.g., waterAppropriate pricing policies for natural resources, e.g., water

•• Apply fees, taxes, levees and tariffs to discourage activities tApply fees, taxes, levees and tariffs to discourage activities that hat degrade biodiversity and ecosystem servicesdegrade biodiversity and ecosystem services

•• Establish market mechanisms to reduce nutrient releases and Establish market mechanisms to reduce nutrient releases and carbon emissions in the most costcarbon emissions in the most cost--effective wayeffective way

Non-financial incentives to implement ecosystem-based activities

Laws and regulationsLaws and regulations

Promote individual and community property or land rightsPromote individual and community property or land rights

Improve access rights and restrictionsImprove access rights and restrictions

New governance structures to improve policy, planning, and New governance structures to improve policy, planning, and managementmanagement•• Integrate decisionIntegrate decision--making between different departments and making between different departments and

sectors, as well as international institutionssectors, as well as international institutions•• Include sound management of ecosystem services in all Include sound management of ecosystem services in all

planning decisions planning decisions

Develop and use environmentDevelop and use environment--friendly technologiesfriendly technologies

Influence individual behaviorInfluence individual behavior

Human securityHuman security

Highest vulnerability towards climate change vs. largest CO2 emissions (from fossil fuel combustion and cement production, and including land use change, kg C per person and year from 1950 - 2003)

Largest per capita CO2 emittersHighest social and / or agro-economic vulnerabilityLargest per capita CO2 emitters, and highest social and / or agro-economic vulnerabilityAreas with highest ecological vulnerability

Emissions and Vulnerability to Climate Change

Climate Change Climate Change and Conflictand Conflict

•• Tens of millions of people Tens of millions of people displaceddisplaced

Low lying deltaic areasLow lying deltaic areasSmall Island StatesSmall Island States

•• Food shortages where with Food shortages where with hunger and famine todayhunger and famine today

•• Water shortages in areas Water shortages in areas already with water shortagesalready with water shortages

•• Natural resources depleted withNatural resources depleted withloss of ecological goods and servicesloss of ecological goods and services

•• Increased incidence of diseaseIncreased incidence of disease•• Increased incidence of severe weather events Increased incidence of severe weather events

Climate Change, coupled with other stresses can lead to local Climate Change, coupled with other stresses can lead to local and regional conflict and migration depending on the social, and regional conflict and migration depending on the social,

economic and political circumstanceseconomic and political circumstances

WBGU 2007

Mitigation of, and adaptation to, Mitigation of, and adaptation to, climate changeclimate change

Dealing with impacts is about managing risk Dealing with impacts is about managing risk --economic, environmental and social economyeconomic, environmental and social economy

11°°CC 22°°CC 55°°CC44°°CC33°°CC

Sea level rise threatens Sea level rise threatens major citiesmajor cities

Falling crop yields in many areas, particularly Falling crop yields in many areas, particularly developing regions developing regions

FoodFood

WaterWater

EcosystemsEcosystems

Risk of Abrupt and Risk of Abrupt and Major Irreversible Major Irreversible ChangesChanges

Global temperature change (relative to preGlobal temperature change (relative to pre--industrial)industrial)00°°CC

Falling yields in many Falling yields in many developed regionsdeveloped regions

Rising number of species face extinctionRising number of species face extinction

Increasing risk of dangerous feedbacks and abrupt, Increasing risk of dangerous feedbacks and abrupt, largelarge--scale shifts in the climate systemscale shifts in the climate system

Significant decreases in water Significant decreases in water availability in many areas, including availability in many areas, including Mediterranean and Southern AfricaMediterranean and Southern Africa

Small glaciers disappear Small glaciers disappear –– water supplies water supplies threatened in several threatened in several areasareas

Extensive Damage to Extensive Damage to Coral ReefsCoral Reefs

Extreme Extreme WeatherWeather Rising intensity of storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding andRising intensity of storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding and heat wavesheat waves

Possible rising yields in some Possible rising yields in some high latitude regionshigh latitude regions

Stern Stern ReviewReview (2006)(2006)

What level of risk are we willing to bear?What level of risk are we willing to bear?

Emissions Paths to StabilizationEmissions Paths to StabilizationSource: Stern Review

Putting a price on carbon throughPutting a price on carbon through•• emissions tradingemissions trading•• taxationtaxation•• regulation regulation -- national, regional and globalnational, regional and global

Technology transformationTechnology transformation•• Carbon capture and storageCarbon capture and storage•• Future generation Future generation biofuelsbiofuels

Mobilising behaviour changeMobilising behaviour change•• CitizensCitizens•• BusinessBusiness•• Public sectorPublic sector

Mitigation StrategyMitigation Strategy

Potential technological optionsPotential technological options• Efficient production and use of energy: coal plants (e.g., re-

powering old inefficient plants and developing IGCC); vehicles (e.g., fuel cell cars) and reduced use of vehicles (e.g., mass transit and urban planning), buildings, and industries

• Fuel shift: coal to gas

• Renewable Energy and Fuels: Wind power; solar PV and solar thermal; small and large-scale hydropower; bio-energy

• CO2 Capture and Storage: Capture CO2 in the production of electricity followed by geological storage (e.g., IGCC – CCS)

• Nuclear fission: Nuclear power

• Forests and Agricultural Soils: Reduced deforestation; reforestation; afforestation; and conservation tillage

• Other GHGs: Methane, nitrous oxide, halocarbons and tropospheric ozone precursors

Source: McKinsey, Source: McKinsey,

Developing country abatement cost curve, 2020 (up to costs of €60/t)

Energy efficiency in Energy efficiency in buildings, transportation buildings, transportation

and industryand industry

Demos / investmentDemos / investmentin emerging in emerging technologies technologies

Agriculture Agriculture and forestryand forestry

Support to overcome Support to overcome barriers (best practice barriers (best practice

info, capacity info, capacity building,loansbuilding,loans))

Support to compensate incremental Support to compensate incremental costs, e.g. through offset market or costs, e.g. through offset market or

grantsgrants

Support to compensate Support to compensate incremental costs incremental costs

(grants) and (grants) and international international cooperationcooperation

Power supply Power supply

88 1010 1212 141422 44 66**

Cost of abatement Cost of abatement €€ / ton/ ton

ForestryForestry AgricultureAgriculture IndustryIndustry PowerPower TransportTransport BuildingsBuildings

00

2020

4040

6060

--2020

--8080

--6060

--4040

Technology follows Technology follows investmentinvestment

Abatement potentialAbatement potentialGtGt COCO22ee

Mitigation Potential Exists For Mitigation Potential Exists For All Sectors & RegionsAll Sectors & Regions

IPCC 4AR WGIII

At leastAt least a 50% reduction global greenhouse gas emissions a 50% reduction global greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 is needed for a chance of meeting the EU 2by 2050 is needed for a chance of meeting the EU 2ooC targetC target

Policy InstrumentsPolicy InstrumentsPolicies, which may need regional or international Policies, which may need regional or international agreement, include:agreement, include:•• Energy pricing strategies and taxesEnergy pricing strategies and taxes•• Removing subsidies that increase GHG emissionsRemoving subsidies that increase GHG emissions•• Internalizing the social costs of environmental Internalizing the social costs of environmental

degradationdegradation•• Tradable emissions permitsTradable emissions permits----domestic and globaldomestic and global•• Voluntary programsVoluntary programs•• Regulatory programs including energyRegulatory programs including energy--efficiency efficiency

standardsstandards•• Incentives for use of new technologies during market Incentives for use of new technologies during market

buildbuild--upup•• Education and training such as product advisories and Education and training such as product advisories and

labelslabels

Accelerated development of technologies requires intensified Accelerated development of technologies requires intensified R&D by governments and the private sectorR&D by governments and the private sector

High ability and High ability and willingwilling

Low ability and Low ability and unwillingunwilling

Segment Segment willingness willingness and abilityand ability

Ability to Ability to actact

HighHigh

Low Low

HighHigh

Willing Willing to Actto Act

LowLow

5:5: Cautious participantsCautious participantsI do a couple of things to I do a couple of things to help the environment. Ihelp the environment. I’’d d

really like to do more, well as really like to do more, well as long as I saw others were.long as I saw others were.

14%14%

2: 2: Waste watchersWaste watchers‘‘Waste not, want notWaste not, want not’’ thatthat’’s s

important, you should live life important, you should live life thinking about what you are thinking about what you are

doing and using.doing and using.12%12%

1: 1: Positive greensPositive greensI think itI think it’’s important that I do s important that I do as much as I can to limit my as much as I can to limit my impact on the environment.impact on the environment.

18%18%

3: 3: Concerned Concerned consumersconsumers

I think I do more than a lot of I think I do more than a lot of people. Still, going away is people. Still, going away is

important, Iimportant, I’’d find that hard to d find that hard to give give up..wellup..well I wouldnI wouldn’’t, so t, so

carbon offcarbon off--setting would make setting would make me feel better.me feel better.

14%14%

4: 4: Sideline supportersSideline supportersI think climate change is a big I think climate change is a big problem for us. I know I donproblem for us. I know I don’’t t think much about how much think much about how much

water or electricity I use, and I water or electricity I use, and I forget to turn things forget to turn things off..Ioff..I’’dd like like

to do a bit more.to do a bit more.14%14%

7:7: Honestly Honestly disengageddisengaged

Maybe thereMaybe there’’ll be an ll be an environmental disaster, environmental disaster, maybe not. Makes no maybe not. Makes no

difference to me, Idifference to me, I’’m just m just living life the way I want to.living life the way I want to.

18%18%

6: 6: Stalled startersStalled startersI donI don’’t know much about t know much about climate change. I canclimate change. I can’’t t

afford a car so I use public afford a car so I use public transport.. Itransport.. I’’d like a car d like a car

though.though.10%10%

International policyInternational policyA longA long--term (2030 term (2030 –– 2050) global regulatory 2050) global regulatory framework, involving all major emitters, with an framework, involving all major emitters, with an equitable allocation of responsibilities equitable allocation of responsibilities –– with with intermediate targetsintermediate targets

Kyoto plus 5 years will not provide the right signals Kyoto plus 5 years will not provide the right signals to the private sector or national governmentsto the private sector or national governments

Expand range of eligible CDM activities, including Expand range of eligible CDM activities, including avoided deforestation, green investment schemes, avoided deforestation, green investment schemes, energy efficiency standards, and exploring energy efficiency standards, and exploring sectoralsectoraland programmatic approachand programmatic approach

Key challenges include engaging USA, China and Key challenges include engaging USA, China and IndiaIndia

Summary of the Major Mitigation ChallengesSummary of the Major Mitigation Challenges

Elements of an adaptation strategyElements of an adaptation strategy

The eight elements of an

adaptation strategy

Information and good science

Education and communication

Responsibility for development

Risk management

plans Linking with other planning

processes

Legislation and enforcement

Support networks

Financing adaptation

•• Delivery of adaptive responses depends on Delivery of adaptive responses depends on governancegovernance mechanismsmechanisms•• Adaptive capacity and societyAdaptive capacity and society’’s selfs self--organisation is determined by organisation is determined by governancegovernance•• Distribution of costs and benefits in society is determined by Distribution of costs and benefits in society is determined by governancegovernance

Source: Emma Tompkins

• Physical limits: there are physical limits to potential adaptation on small low lying islands e.g. Cayman Islands

• Behavioural limits: there are behavioural constraints that influence where we live and why, e.g. New Orleans

• Technological limits: there are technological limits to the flood defences that can be constructed, e.g. Thames Barrier, London

Are there limits to how much we can adapt?Are there limits to how much we can adapt?……physical, behavioural and technological limitsphysical, behavioural and technological limits

Elements of a PostElements of a Post--2012 framework2012 framework

(2C) 50% cut by 2050 on 1990 level30% cut by 2020 and 60-80 by 2050 for developed countriesGraduated approach to commitments Broader, deeper, longer carbon market

Adaptation integrated into development and finance strategiesLULUCF integrated in post-2012 framework. Incentives to tackle deforestationGlobal sectoral approach

Technology Protocols, IFI financing, R&D, energy fficiency

1. Long-term goal

3. Developing countries

2. Developed country targets

5. Technology

4. Carbon market

8. Aviation & maritime

7. LULUCF inc Deforestation

6. Adaptation

In ConclusionIn ConclusionThere is no dichotomy between environmental protection and There is no dichotomy between environmental protection and economic growtheconomic growth

Get the economics right Get the economics right –– eliminate perverse subsidies eliminate perverse subsidies –– value value ecosystem services ecosystem services –– internalize externalities internalize externalities –– recognize the recognize the wealth of a nation is dependent on built, human, natural and wealth of a nation is dependent on built, human, natural and social capital social capital

There are costThere are cost--effective and equitable solutions to address issues effective and equitable solutions to address issues such as climate change and biodiversity loss, but political willsuch as climate change and biodiversity loss, but political will and and moral leadership is needed, and the changes in policies, practicmoral leadership is needed, and the changes in policies, practices es and technologies required are substantial and not currently and technologies required are substantial and not currently underwayunderway

Public and private sector decisionPublic and private sector decision--makers need to take a longermakers need to take a longer--term perspectiveterm perspective

Advances in science and technology are required Advances in science and technology are required –– investments investments are needed now to address these issues costare needed now to address these issues cost--effectively effectively

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