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Conférence Internationale Eau et Climat "Dams and Climate" workshop July 11, 2016 - Rabat, Morocco
Climate Change, Dams, Reservoirs
and Water Resources
Dr. Denis Aelbrecht (EDF-CIH, France) Chairman of ICOLD Technical Committee
on Climate Change, Dams and Reservoirs
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Climate and Water:
a hot topic
Intl Water Power & Dam Construction
May 2016
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" Whiskey is for drinking,
Water is for fighting over "
Mark Twain
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Evidence of man-induced impact on global warming
From IPCC, Assessment Report 4 (2007) - similar in AR5 (2013)
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Climate and Dams / Reservoirs / Water Resources systems are interacting closely
- impacts on average flow regimes
- impacts on extreme floods
- impacts on extreme droughts and air T°
- impacts on water uses and related risks
- Hydropower : reduction of GHG emissions
- GHG emissions associated to reservoirs
- dams and reservoirs as mitigation tools
or responses to climate effects
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Majority of the world is vulnerable to effects of : - global Air temperature increase - and regionally variable Precipitation changes (+/-)
resulting in : - change in seasonal and annual inflows patterns - change in droughts / flood frequency and intensity with local / regional variations (latitude, snowmelt-driven basins, …)
ICOLD Response: Formation of Climate Change Technical Committee Not interested in The Debate on the Cause of Climate Change Interested in Providing Recommendations for Local Solutions
to a Global Concern
GLOBAL CLIMATE TRENDS
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1. Executive Summary 2. Objectives of ICOLD Bulletin 3. What Is at Risk 4. Climate Evolution: Facts, Uncertainties 5. Climate-Induced Impact and Risk Assessment 6. Climate Is One of the Drivers 7. Opportunities for New Storage and Management 8. GHG emissions linked to reservoirs and water resources 9. Case Studies 10. ICOLD Recommendations 11. References 12. Acknowledgements 13. Glossary 14. Appendix of Case Studies
ICOLD Technical Bulletin Chapters
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ICOLD bulletin : Technical chapters and authors
Chapter 3 : What is at risk ? D. Aelbrecht (France)
Chapter 4 : Climate evolution: facts, uncertainties S. Bergström (Sweden), Ingjerd Haddeland (Norway), Claes-Olof Brandesten (Sweden)
Chapter 5 : Climate-induced impact and risk assessment R. Roy, M. Braun, D. Chaumont (Canada), D. Aelbrecht (France)
Chapter 6 : Climate is one of the drivers, among others R. Lemons (USA)
Chapter 7 : Opportunities for new storage and management G. Annandale (USA)
Chapter 8 : Green House Gas emissions associated to dams & reservoirs M. Demarty (Canada), F. Sanchez (Spain)
Chapter 9 : Case studies of adaptation, to climate effect M. Airey (UK), Trevor Jacobs, D. Stewart (Australia), T. Sugiura (Japan)
Chapter 10 : ICOLD recommendations M. Airey (UK), Trevor Jacobs (Australia)
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Insights of
Technical Chapters
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De
ns
ity
of
pro
ba
bilit
y
Climatic parameter
(b) change in variabilityBaseline
scenario 2
De
ns
ity
of
pro
ba
bilit
y
Climatic parameter
(c) changes in both average
and variability
Baseline
scenario 3
De
ns
ity
of
pro
ba
bilit
y
Climatic parameter
(a) change in averageBaseline
scenario 1
Baseline
reference
Change in
variability Change in
Average
or both
changes !
Chapter 3: What does “Change” mean?
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Risk = Hazard Exposure Consequences
Water Resources systems
Irrigation
Water Supply
Power Generation
Other Industrial Needs
Flood Control
Environmental Needs
Inland Navigation
Chapter 3: What is at Risk?
Hydro-meteo forcings
Average air temperature
Extreme Air temperature
Average rainfall
Extreme rainfall
Floods and droughts
Evapotranspiration
…
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Historical data, Trends, Modeling
Global Modeling
Chapter 4: Climate Evolution Facts and Uncertainties
Regional Modeling
Site-Specific Studies
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Air Temperatures
Past (statistical) Trends
• Warming for last 150 years :
linear trend 0.85 deg.C
on period [1880;2012]
• Significant increase since
years 80’ and 90’
• Not increased as much in
last 15 years (natural
variability)
IPCC Projections
• End of 21st Century : + 1.5 to 2.0
deg.C warmer than 1850 to 1900
• Greater Extremes
Changes are
more certain …
Chapter 4: Climate Evolution Facts and Uncertainties
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Past (statistical) Trends
• Confidence on trends depends
on latitude : • Mid-lat. : since 1950, medium
confidence for average
increase
• Elsewhere : low confidence of
+/- trends
• Huge spatial variability
• Changes in Extremes : medium
confidence to some regional
increase (intensity, frequency)
IPCC Projections
• High latitudes : increase
• Low latitudes : decrease
• Mid latitudes : ?
• Potential greater extremes in
some regions
Chapter 4: Climate Evolution Facts and Uncertainties
Precipitation Changes are more
uncertain …
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IPCC Recommends:
1. Define Problem and
Baseline scenario
2. Select Method
3. Test method / sensitivity
4. Select climate scenarios
5. Assess biophysical /
socio-economic impacts
6. Assess autonomous
adjustments
7. Evaluate adaptation
strategies
Figure 5.1 Illustration of the analysis design quantifying the benefits for
adaptation (modified from Roy et al., 2008)
Chapter 5: Climate Induced Impact and Risk Assessment
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Chapter 5: Climate Induced Impact and Risk Assessment
Defining Projections of Climate Scenarios
" What if " postulated scenarios
• based on past observations or IPCC global
projections
• what if + 1º C or + 2º C for air temperature
• what if +/- 5%, 10% or 20% in annual
precipitation
Climate model-based scenarios
• Consider families of GHG emissions scenarios
• Consider ensemble of "serious" GCM models
• Take care to downscaling issue
• Coupling GCM models outputs to hydrological
and water resources management models
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Chapter 5: Climate Induced Impact and Risk Assessment
20 j 80 j
Déstockage Remplissage Déstockage
Δ amplitude
- 30 Mm3
(- 30%)
Déstockage Remplissage
Déstockage
Example - Imagine_2030 project Impacts of climate change on water resources of the Garonne river:
- irrigation needs
- hydropower generation
Change of storage capacity management for irrigation Change of annual inflows
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Chapter 5: Climate Induced Impact and Risk Assessment
20 j 80 j
Déstockage Remplissage Déstockage
Δ amplitude
- 30 Mm3
(- 30%)
Déstockage Remplissage
Déstockage
Example - Imagine_2030 project Impacts of climate change on water resources of the Garonne river:
- irrigation needs
- hydropower generation
Change of storage capacity management for irrigation Change of annual inflows
Assuming priority on irrigation needs,
the impact on Hydropower is :
- less annual power
- less flexibility
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From R. Jones (CSIRO, 2000)
Probabilistic approaches
• Typical outputs : by 2070,
Prob (V<Vannual_50%) = 20%
• Advantages : suitable to
handle uncertainty and
quantify risk
• Drawbacks : method is
more complex, and you
need to know your risk
limits in probabilistic
terms !!
V_crit
V_crit
Chapter 5: Climate Induced Impact and Risk Assessment
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Chapter 6: Climate Is Just One of the Drivers
Demographic Evolution
Technology Evolution
Social and Regulatory Evolution
Economic Factors
Sedimentation
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Figure 7.1. Global Groundwater
Depletion (data from Konikow 2011)
3.5 times more
groundwater is used
worldwide than what is
naturally replenished
Figure 7.9. Net total and per capita global
reservoir storage space (Annandale, 2013
Negative trend in per
capita reservoir storage space
Chapter 7: Opportunities for New Storage
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More Storage is needed to offset
• Decreasing groundwater reserves
• Decreasing reservoir storage per capita
• Climate change variability increase
Water supply: new storage capacity to
be considered as complementary to
• Desalination
• Conservation
Chapter 7: Opportunities for New Storage
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Figure 8.3. Main processes leading to GHG emissions
from reservoirs (from Demarty and Bastien, 2011)
Chapter 8: GHG emissions associated to reservoirs
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Test
Figure 8.4 (A) summer CO2 emission rates for Quebec reservoirs
(B) annual CH4 emission rates for tropical reservoirs
Chapter 8: GHG emissions associated to reservoirs
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• Impacts and adaptation opportunities vary
• Differ by region
• Differentiating factors include:
• Hydrological and system characteristics
• Region drying, wetting, extremely variable
• Infrastructure exist or is being developed?
• Living standards
• Cultural / indigenous values and practices
• Environmental water
Solution: a combination of
structural and functional changes
Chapter 9: Adaptation Strategy
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Figure 9.1 – No Regrets Approach to Adaptive Management
Chapter 9: Adaptation Strategy
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• The bulletin provides 6 case studies:
• Australia, Guyana, France, Japan, USA, Korea
• Africa not (enough) covered
• Some insights of 2 of them in next slides
Chapter 14: Appendix A Case Studies
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Chamonix
« Les Bois »
power station
Adaptation of a hydropower station glacier water
intake structure to Glacier retreat in France
Chapter 14 – Case Studies ADAPTING TO WARMER CONDITIONS
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French glacier front retreat
1990 2002 2008
Chapter 14 – Case Studies ADAPTING TO WARMER CONDITIONS
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« Pessimistic » what if scenario
« Optimistic » what if scenario
Chapter 14 – Case Studies ADAPTING TO WARMER CONDITIONS
French glacier retreat
Prediction of glacier front
evolution from 2008 to 2028
Study by LGGE Laboratory (France)
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Generally higher latitudes
Japan and Sweden experiences
Upgrades to facilities, infrastructure and operations
Chapter 14 – Case Studies ADAPTING TO WETTER CONDITIONS
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Increasing dam height
Spillway upgrades
Improve flow forecasting
and storage management
Coordinated flood management
Updating flood criteria then developing operations models that provide flexibility
Water use
Sediment
Storage
Chapter 14 – Case Studies ADAPTING TO WETTER CONDITIONS
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Water Conservation and Securing Water Supplies
• Increase in piping projects
• Increase in desalination projects
• Temporary and permanent water use restrictions
• Finding more efficient ways of managing water systems
• Better coordination and management on national, regional and local levels
Chapter 14 – Case Studies ADAPTING TO DRIER CONDITIONS
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• Not ‘Future Scenario’ – ALREADY LIVING IT
• 10-Year Drought last three years SEVERE
• Severe stress on floodplain ecology
• Responded quickly with a range of adaptive measures
Chapter 14 – Case Studies ADAPTING TO DRIER CONDITIONS
River Murray System in Southeast Australia
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Adaptive Measures:
• Changed interstate water sharing arrangement
• Changed river system operations
• Prioritized both permanent and temporary drought contingency measures
• Reduced water allocations
• Institute State and Federal water planning – Includes setting and implementing “Sustainable Diversion Limits”
– Provisions for critical human water needs
Chapter 14 – Case Studies ADAPTING TO DRIER CONDITIONS
River Murray System in Southeast Australia
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Future ICOLD work on climate change issues:
“ Role of dams and reservoirs in climate change
mitigation and adaptation ”
Theme 1. Identify and manage water issues especially on water shortage or drought management:
– Contribution of dams and water storage to adaptation to changes in water resources
– Impact of climate change to existing water regulated systems, and natural water resources
– Opportunity for new dams and reservoirs to mitigate the impacts of CC
– Case studies, especially in semi-arid or arid regions linked to climate change (Africa, Middle-East, Asia, America, South-Europe, Australia)
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“ Role of dams and reservoirs in climate change
mitigation and adaptation ”
Theme 2: Assess the role of hydropower in climate change mitigation. Identify climate-induced opportunities for hydropower (including pumped-storage) in new power generation mix, and as a balance of intermittent renewable power resources (wind, solar).
Important note : each of topics above should include lessons from
actual climate adaptation case studies: in particular, how uncertainties have been handled as well as multi-decades time horizons in the adaptation decision-making process
Future ICOLD work on climate change issues: