Climate ChangeClimate ChangeElements for a discussionElements for a discussion

IFADIFADRome, May 18-19, 2007Rome, May 18-19, 2007

Alejandro DeebAlejandro Deeb

% change in runoff by 2050% change in runoff by 2050

Many of the major “food-bowls” of the world are projected to become Many of the major “food-bowls” of the world are projected to become significantly driersignificantly drier

Globally there will be more precipitationGlobally there will be more precipitation Higher temperatures will tend to reduce run offHigher temperatures will tend to reduce run off A few important areas drier (Mediterranean, southern South America, A few important areas drier (Mediterranean, southern South America,

northern Brazil, west and south Africa)northern Brazil, west and south Africa)

Some climate change issuesSome climate change issues Patterns of precipitation and runoff will change substantiallyPatterns of precipitation and runoff will change substantially Rain in fewer, heavier events leading to more floods and Rain in fewer, heavier events leading to more floods and

dry spells; less ground water rechargedry spells; less ground water rechargeProjections for increased number of rainy days Projections for increased number of rainy days (left)(left) and amount of rain and amount of rain

per wet day per wet day (Right)(Right) for 2041-2060 period based on modeling for 2041-2060 period based on modeling (HadRM2)(HadRM2)

Fewer rainy days

But heavier rain

Europe:Europe:Changing flood frequencyChanging flood frequency

Lenher et al 2006 Climatic ChangeLenher et al 2006 Climatic Change

Over much Over much of Europe of Europe “one in a “one in a hundred hundred year floods” year floods” will occur will occur every every couple of couple of decadesdecades

Mountain water systemsMountain water systems

1982

1987

1997

2005

South America:South America:Yanamarey Glacier, PeruYanamarey Glacier, Peru

Retreat in volume and area of the Chacaltaya Retreat in volume and area of the Chacaltaya

glacier (Bolivia) since 1940glacier (Bolivia) since 1940

Source: Francou, 2004

Sea-surface temperature anomaly in the Caribbean for Sea-surface temperature anomaly in the Caribbean for August 2005 August 2005 (0.5 Celsius isothermals above 1961-1990 average)(0.5 Celsius isothermals above 1961-1990 average)

Source: IRI, 2005

The Greenhouse EffectThe Greenhouse Effect

Met Office Hadley Centre

Strong Global WarmingStrong Global Warming ObservedObserved

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and ResearchBased on Folland et al (2000) and Jones and Moberg (2003)

Rapid rise in the stock of Carbon Dioxide in Rapid rise in the stock of Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere post 1850: the atmosphere post 1850:

Source: IPCC TAR (slide taken from Hadley Centre)

Flows of emissions of COFlows of emissions of CO22 from burning from burning

fossil-fuels have risen rapidly since 1950fossil-fuels have risen rapidly since 1950

Source: World Resources Institute, CAIT

0

5

10

15

20

25

1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000

Gt C

O2

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios

(SRES), published in 2000

The A1 storyline and scenario describes a future world of very rapid economic growth, global population that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter and, in several variations of it, the rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies. Major underlying themes are convergence between regions, capacity-building, and increased cultural and social interactions, with a substantial reduction in regional differences in per capita income. A1 is subdivided into A1FI (fossil-fuel intensive), A1T (high-technology), and A1B (balanced), with A1FI generating the most CO2 emissions and A1T the least (of the A1 storyline, and the second lowest emissions of all six marker scenarios). But even in the A1T world, atmospheric concentrations of CO2 still near a doubling of preindustrial levels by 2100. For a contrasting vision of the world’s social and technological future, SRES offers the B1 storyline, which is (marginally) the lowest-emissions case of all the IPCC’s scenarios. The storyline and scenario family is one of a converging world with the same global population as A1, peaking in mid-century and declining thereafter, but with more rapid change in economic structures towards service and information economies, which is assumed to cause a significant decrease in energy intensity. The B1 world finds efficient ways of increasing economic output with less material, cleaner resources, and more efficient technologies. Many scientists and policymakers have doubted whether a transition to a B1 world is realistic and whether it can be considered equally likely when compared to the scenarios in the A1 family. The IPCC did not discuss probabilities of each scenario, making a risk-management framework for climate policy problematic since risk is probability times consequences.

Dangerous climateDangerous climate

0.6 C0.6 C Coral bleachingCoral bleaching 0.6 C0.6 C West Antarctic losing iceWest Antarctic losing ice 0.7 C0.7 C Kilimanjaro glacier goneKilimanjaro glacier gone 1.0 C Tropical Glacier in the Andes gone1.0 C Tropical Glacier in the Andes gone 1.6 C1.6 C Onset of melting of GreenlandOnset of melting of Greenland 2-3 C2-3 C Collapse of Amazon rainforestCollapse of Amazon rainforest 44 C C Collapse of THC currentCollapse of THC current

• Source: Exeter Conference, 2005Source: Exeter Conference, 2005

Where is it coming from?Where is it coming from?

CountryCountry TotalTotal Ton/GDPTon/GDP Ton/capTon/cap(BTA)(BTA) ton/$Mppton/$Mpp

USAUSA 6.96.9 720720 24.624.6 EU-25EU-25 4.74.7 450450 10.510.5 GermanyGermany 1.01.0 470470 12.312.3 JapanJapan 1.31.3 400400 10.410.4 ChinaChina 4.94.9 1020 1020 3.9 3.9 IndiaIndia 1.91.9 770770 1.9 1.9 MexicoMexico 0.50.5 590590 5.2 5.2 BrazilBrazil 0.80.8 680680 5.0 5.0 TotalTotal 33.6 33.6

Source: WRI, 2006Source: WRI, 2006

To stabilise at below 550 ppm, emissions must start to fall soon & developing countries

must be part of the solution

Business as usual

(A2)

Source IPPC

• Building Awareness.• Building monitoring and analysis

capability • Building planning capacity in

institutions

• Developing national policy framework for adaptation.• Mainstreaming climate change issues into key sector activities. • Preparation of pilot adaptation projects.• Further strengthening of awareness andparticipation.• Further strengthening of knowledge base

Building awarenessand strengthening

knowledge base

Creating an enablingenvironment for

adaptationCPACCCPACC

MACCMACC

• Policy framework for adaptation in place• Projects being implemented.• Awareness and participation high.• Monitoring, analysis and planning integrated throughout all national and sectoral planning.

Implementation

PublicAwareness

and Participation

PolicyInstitutions

KnowledgeBase

Implementation

PublicAwareness

and Participation

PolicyInstitutions

KnowledgeBase

Implementation

PublicAwareness

and Participation

PolicyInstitutions

KnowledgeBase

AdaptationAdaptation

ACCC

SPACC