Climate Change & Energy

Climate is always changing

Is the earth warming?

• Yes, it has been gradually warming for the last 400 years as we exit the Little Ice Age.

• So the real question is:

Has there been significant or unnatural warming in the last few decades?

A Critical Question

• Did the recent warming result from an increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases, primarily carbon dioxide (CO2)?

–OR

• From natural cycles controlled by the

Sun • Let’s look at these 2 competing

hypotheses

The Greenhouse Gases• Make life possible on earth

– Without them earth would be too cold– Not a new phenomenon

• Minor components of the atmosphere – Water vapor is the most important by far– Others include: Carbon dioxide, methane,

and a few others

• Further increases in carbon dioxide will have little effect

The CO2 effect quickly saturates as concentration increasesLet’s check real data.

Implications

• Lack of correlation between rising CO2 and temperature indicates that other factors are controlling climate change

• This lack of correlation agrees with the record in ice cores and geologic history

What about the solar hypothesis?

• Solar activity is cyclical and drives earth’s climate– Total irradiance – about 20% of the effect

• Only part considered by the UN

– Solar wind & Solar magnetic field• These account for 80% of the effect

• Length of the Sunspot cycle is a good indicator of solar activity– Short cycles are more active & warm earth

Variable solar activity

• Length of the Sunspot cycle is a good indicator of solar activity– Short cycles are more active & warm earth

• What is happening with solar activity?

Cycle 23 Cycle 24

Cycle 23 predicted to be 10 years

Cycle 23 Cycle 24

Cycle 23 is now 13 years long

Sunspot contrast is decreasing.If this trend continues, they will disappear completely in 6 years.

Data from Jan. ’09 show this trend is continuing.

X

The magnetic field of sunspots is losing strength.If this trend continues, sunspots will disappear in 6 years.

Data from Jan. ’09 show this trend is also continuing.

X

So Where Are We At?

• Anthropogenic global warming is not proven– CO2 does not appear to be the main climate driver

– Rather CO2 changes appear to follow temperature changes

• If the solar model is correct we are entering a major cooling phase – that scares me!

• Which will prove correct?• Which will benefit humanity?

What does history tell us?

• Civilization has flourished during warm times– Medieval castles, cathedrals, developing

science• Civilization has suffered during cold times

– Crop failures, starvation, plague

• Which do you prefer?

• Are we going down the wrong road?

Carbon Dioxide – CO2

• Should we try to control CO2 in the atmosphere?– When we are not sure it is a problem.

• CAN we control the CO2 content of the atmosphere?– What are the economic consequences of

spending large amounts to “cure” a problem that may not exist?

CO2 – a Greenhouse Gas

• One source of CO2 is burning of fossil fuels

• Are there alternatives to fossil fuels ?????

Alternative energy Sources

• Solar, Wind, Geothermal, Biofuels, & Nuclear

• Some pertinent questions– Which sources are economically

competitive?– Which sources are environmentally

friendly?– Which sources can meet our needs?

Some Answers

• Of the alternate energy sources –

• Only geothermal and nuclear are currently economically competitive with fossil fuels

• Wind & solar may never be competitive

• Fossil fuels are still abundant– Much of the resource base is off limits

Environmental Problems

• Geothermal and nuclear are the most environmentally friendly

• Wind, solar, and biofuels require huge areas to collect diffuse energy

• Results in a large environmental footprint

• Realistically wind, solar, and biofuels will never provide much of our energy needs

Technical Problems

• Wind and solar are intermittent

• Requires spinning backup to prevent blackouts– Denmark – grid unstable after about 15%– Texas blackout

• Substantial increase in the cost of electricity

The Denmark Experience

• In 2005, it was calculated that wind energy saved Danish consumers $200,000,000

• However, the Danish paid $280,000,000 in subsidies for a loss of $80,000,000

• Since then, Denmark stopped subsidizing wind power and construction of new wind turbines has stopped

• Why is that?

Importance of energy

• Modern civilization requires vast amounts of energy

• The cost of energy affects nearly every aspect of our lives

• Our supply of abundant & inexpensive energy depends on decisions we make– The fossil fuel resource base is available– What will we choose?????????

Final Thought

Without the energy industry, we are back in the stone age!