climate change, energy crisis, increasing violence and ...with the first four months reporting an...
TRANSCRIPT
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P.L.Dhar I.I.T. Delhi
Climate change, Energy crisis, Increasing Violence and Technological choices
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Climate Change
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Glacier melting in Argentina
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So far, 2010 is warmest year ever in recorded history: Report
Press Trust of India, Tuesday May 18, 2010, Washington
The year 2010 is turning out to be the warmest ever in
recorded history, with the first four months reporting an average
temperature of 13.3 degrees Celsius which is 0.69 degrees above the 20th
century average.
The combined global land and ocean surface temperatures for the period
between January and April were the warmest on record, and April was
the warmest individual month ever, …….., the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of America said.
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Global Warming Hits Singapore? Driest, Hottest Month In History! 4:01 AM Posted by AussiePeteAs many locations around the world are experiencing some very unseasonal and extreme climates,whether you blame it on Global Warming or blame it on El Nino- no matter the reason, February 2010 was the driest month in recorded history for Singapore.A total of only 6.3mm of rain fell for the entire month...this is the lowest data point for any month since 1869(when records first started being kept).According to the NEA (National Environment Agency), February 2010 also saw the hottest day - 35°C on Friday, 26th
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June AnomalyRank
(out of 131 years)
Warmest/Next
Warmest
Year on Record
Global
Land +1.07°C (+1.93°F) 1st warmest 2005 (+0.95°C/1.71°F)
Ocean +0.54°C (+0.97°F) 4th warmest 1998 (+0.58°C/1.04°F)
Land and Ocean +0.68°C (+1.22°F) 1st warmest 2005 (+0.66°C/1.19°F)
Northern Hemisphere
Land +1.22°C (+2.20°F) 1st warmest 2006 (+1.11°C/2.00°F)
Ocean +0.54°C (+0.97°F) 4th warmest 2009 (+0.62°C/1.12°F)
Land and Ocean +0.79°C (+1.42°F) 1st warmest 2006 (+0.73°C/1.31°F)
Southern Hemisphere
Land +0.66°C (+1.19°F) 5th warmest 2005 (+1.03°C/1.85°F)
Ocean +0.55°C (+0.99°F) 2nd warmest 1998 (+0.60°C/1.08°F)
Land and Ocean +0.56°C (+1.01°F) 4th warmest 1998 (+0.63°C/1.13°F)
State of the ClimateGlobal Analysis
June 2010National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
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April - June AnomalyRank
(out of 131 years)
Warmest/Next
Warmest
Year on Record
Global
Land +1.12°C (+2.02°F) 1st warmest 2005 (+1.02°C/1.84°F)
Ocean +0.54°C (+0.97°F) 2nd warmest 1998 (+0.56°C/1.01°F)
Land and Ocean +0.70°C (+1.26°F) 1st warmest 1998 (+0.66°C/1.19°F)
Northern Hemisphere
Land +1.25°C (+2.25°F) 1st warmest 2007 (+1.16°C/2.09°F)
Ocean +0.55°C (+0.99°F) 2nd warmest 2005 (+0.56°C/1.01°F)
Land and Ocean +0.81°C (+1.46°F) 1st warmest 2005 (+0.74°C/1.33°F)
Southern Hemisphere
Land +0.78°C (+1.40°F) 3rd warmest 2005 (+0.98°C/1.76°F)
Ocean +0.56°C (+1.01°F) 2nd warmest 1998 (+0.61°C/1.10°F)
Land and Ocean +0.58°C (+1.04°F) 2nd warmest 1998 (+0.64°C/1.15°F)
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Carbon dioxide (ppm) in Atmosphere
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Methane (ppb) in Atmosphere
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Energy Crisis
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Oil reserves-to-production (R/P) ratios at the end 2006
What will happen after 2050 ?
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Fossil fuel reserves-to-production (R/P) ratios at the end 2005
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Increasing Violence
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Violence and Inequity
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Violence and Inequity
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Technological Choices
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Role of Technology in . . . . .
Climate Change
Energy Crisis
Inequity
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Role of Technology in . . . . .
Fundamental Characteristics of Modern technology
~Centralization~Automation~Planned Obsolescence
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Centralization
• Need for Concentrated Energy Source : Fossil fuels => Energy crisis
• Pollution => Climate Change• Migration from Rural areas => slums =>
Inequity• Need for large capital => small business
can’t survive=> Inequity : For every Rs 100 generated by growth the poorest 20% receive only Rs 8.9 while the richest 20% receive Rs 43.3
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Centralized Effluents : pollution
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Slums- a by-product of Centralization
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Growth with inequity : India
35% population below poverty line ($1 a day)80% population below $2 per day
Global perspective2.5 billion people (40% of world population) live on < $2 per day and account for 5% of global incomeRichest 10% account for 54% of global income
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Automation
• Unemployment : Jobless growth during 1990s => Inequity & violence
Stark inequalities can be a recipe for socio-political and economic destabilization in a globalizing economy {PMs Economic Advisory Council}
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Planned Obsolescence
• Demand creation• Excessive production • Waste of Energy and
material => Climate Change, Energy Crisis
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Responding to the Crisis
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Conserve Energy
Shift to Renewable sources of energy………………………………….…………..Reduce emissionsCarbon CaptureCarbon Trading…………………………………………..…..
Liberalize --Increase growth rate
Usual Response
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Counter intuitive results of increasing energy efficiency Increased fuel economy of cars ….. in IndiaIncreased recycling of aluminum cans , …….in USImprovement in the efficiency of lighting systems has
……. in UK
These only defer the day of reckoning !
Anyone who believes that exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a mad man or an economist . ---- K. E. Boulding
Sustainable development demands “Steady state “ operation of planet earth
Economic growth is highly pro- rich and will only increase inequity
Limitations of This Response
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Responding to the Crisis … Need for Change in the world view
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ETH
ICS
& V
ALU
ES
Present world view => materialistic
MaterialismLife is fleeting and has just one aim,
Enjoy yourself, till the body is consigned to flames!Maximize the wealth, feel no shame,
Survival of the fittest is the name of the game!
Wants become needs
consumerism
Increasing demand for goods and services
Planned Obsolescence
Increasing industrial activity
Energy, ecology, economy, inequity syndrome
Its values : Aggressiveness, acquisitiveness, conceit, selfishness
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The Crisis of Energy, Climate Change, increasing Inequity and Violence has its roots in the distorted world view
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Cha
nges
in li
fe s
tyle
, val
ues
IPCC
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If we sincerely wish to cut down energy consumption ………..
Technology and Product Choice …. some examples
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• The total energy consumption in building a bamboo house is less than 10% of that used in modern RCC houses with fired brick walls
Bamboo Construction
Cha
nges
in li
fe s
tyle
, val
ues
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Bamboo Construction
Chan
ges
in li
fe s
tyle
, val
ues
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Chan
ges
in li
fe s
tyle
, val
ues
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Chan
ges
in li
fe s
tyle
, val
ues
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Thermodynamics and the Green Revolution Grain production increase by 2.5 times means
similar increase in energy outputWhere did this additional energy come from ?The energy flow increased by an average of 50
times the energy input in traditional agricultureAbout 400 gallons of oil equivalent are expended
annually to feed each American=> we are eating fossil fuels !! Besides this we have the energy costs of loss of
topsoil, ill effects of pesticides, draining water supplies
Energy efficiency of AgricultureCh
ange
s in
Tec
hnol
ogy
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Rice and maize production by modern, transitional and traditional methods
Rice production Maize production
Modern (US)
Transitional(Philippines)
Traditional(Philippines)
Modern(United States)
Traditional(Mexico)
Energy input (MJ/ha)
64,885 6,386 170 30.034 170
Productive yield (kg/ha)
5,800 2,700 1,250 5,083 950
Energy input/ yield (MJ/kg)
11.19 2.37 0.14 5.91 0.18
Energy Efficiency of AgricultureCh
ange
s in
Tec
hnol
ogy
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The future of agriculture ?
If we keep copying the western model of high energy intensity agriculture =>Reduction in number of farmers and need to
find new employment opportunities for them
Further increase in energy consumption in the agricultural sector
Decreasing productivity increasing soil degradation, food ‘pollution’, ground water mining
Increase in GHG emission
Cha
nges
in T
echn
olog
y
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ZERO Fossil Energy Farming
Natural Farming ,Organic farmingIdeally suited for low farm holdingSmall farms have higher productivity levelsEnergy through
BiogasDraught animal powerBiomassSolar
•Why are Agricultural scientists not able to see this Truth ?C
hang
es in
Tec
hnol
ogy
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Food habits – energy perspective
www.arcytech.org
Why are we not looking into this possibility seriously ?
Cha
nges
in li
fe s
tyle
, hab
its •1350 kilograms of corn
and soybeans converted
to beef sufficient to
support one person.
• However, 1350
kilograms of soybeans
and corn utilized directly
without converting to
beef will support 22
people!
• Energy benefits of eliminating meat from our diet altogether
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Why are we not looking into these issues seriously ?
Cha
nges
in li
fe s
tyle
, hab
its
Bottled water
Frozen foods
International Trade in fruits and vegetables
Paper towels
Energy wasting habits
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Transport Demand ManagementCh
ange
s in
Life
sty
leReducing demand for travel
use of IT , proper urban planning
Improving Public Transport Systemreducing the need to use personal car
Policies to prevent unnecessary use of big carsHeavy entry / parking charges
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Reducing Inequity : Providing Employment
Achieving Liberalization Globalization with a Human face
Rural Industrialization
Chan
ges
in T
echn
olog
y
REGP / PMEGP
Employment : Organized sector (26.4m in 2005) : 8% of total employed workforcePSU: 68% of it
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Employment creation through R E G P
http://www.pmegp.in/index.html
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Performance of KVI Sector
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)2006-07 491.52 13527.19 663.19 18888.21 8.84 80.08
2007-08 543.39 16134.32 724.39 20819.09 9.16 90.11
2008-09 585.25 16753.62 799.60 21948.59 9.50 94.41
2009-10* 484.45 11730.60 762.55 14970.48 9.77 95.19
Year PRODUCTION SALES EMPLOYMENTIn crores in crores in lakh persons
Khadi VI Khadi VI Khadi VI
* Till Dec 2009
Total employment in KVI Sector is more than that in the whole organized Private sector http://msme.gov.in/MSME_AR_ENG_2009_10.pdf
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Why Rural Industrialization ?
Gandhian economics :Produce wealth in a distributed manner
rather than producing it centrally and then hoping to distribute it through taxation, subsidies, legislative mean
The Concept of Gram swaraj Khadi ; cottage and village industries
Rural industrialization Chan
ges
in T
echn
olog
y
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The challenges of Rural Industrialization
Labour Intensive vsCapital Intensive
technology :Mass production vs
production by masses
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The challenges of Rural Industrialization
Quality assurance for decentralized production
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The challenges of Rural Industrialization
Combining Tradition with modernity • Artisans and craftsmen were
the engineers and the architects of the past !
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The challenges of Rural Industrialization
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Concluding Remarks
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Concluding Remarks
The Crisis of Energy, Ecology, Inequity, Violence is more of an ethical problem than a technological One
--------------------------------------------------------------Short term measure : reduce Carbon emissions &
fossil fuel consumption Need for higher energy efficiency norms at par
with pollution normsJudicious switching to bio fuelsArresting deforestation needs highest priorityInnovative methods of removing CO2 from the
atmosphere
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Long term Measures:Need for changing attitudes and values –
from acquisitiveness to sharing , Simplifying Life style
Promoting Eco-friendly Rural industrialization
Imperatives of Globalization Need for a level playing fieldIncrease in inequity will lead to crime
and violence
Concluding Remarks
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Change in value system would release enormous money and energy locked in military equipment and lost in wars ( US armed forces consumed annually 25mTOE in 1990s = energy consumption of 2/3 of worlds countries)
Historically energy transitions have been accompanied with improving QOL –energy crisis is an opportunity for change in values !!
Concluding Remarks
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Livi
ng M
ORE
wit
h LE
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QOL is a multi dimensional concept :
physical well being +emotional development +intellectual development +spiritual development
Living More with Less
You can not fill spiritual vacuum with goods !
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There are many activities that bring pleasure with little need for materials or commercial energy: looking at a beautiful sunset, listening to music , interacting with friends and family, expressing and receiving love and friendship, reading, sitting quietly, taking a walk , practicing whatever spiritual program we may find individually rewarding…….
A transition to a new set of values will benefit both those who suffer from isolation and those who are overstressed from the hectic and
over programmed life.
Livi
ng M
ORE
wit
h LE
SSLiving More with Less
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Le Chattelier’s Principle
If any in-homogeneity develops in a thermodynamic system in equilibrium, the system would respond in a manner that tends to eradicate the original in-homogeneity
Concluding Remarks
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Concluding RemarksAs humans we respond well
when disaster strikes – let us learn to respond well beforethe disaster strikes !!
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THANK YOU
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How much is good enough ?
Smil : 50-70 GJ / capita ( 1.2-1.7 TOE) <US 350GJ, Germany 180GJ, Australia 250GJ>
Global Mean per capita energy consumption in 2001 : 58 GJ
As efficiencies of equipment improve , much more can be done with lesser energy consumption !
Need for equitable sharing of energy resources
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Why can’t they reduce their energy consumption?
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How
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