Climate Change, Hurricane Sandy, and Impacts on Coastal New Jersey

Michael J. KennishInstitute of Marine and Coastal SciencesRutgers University

Coastal NJ

Marsh edge transfer

Coastal DamageStorm Surge (Hybrid)FloodingBeach/Dune LossInfrastructure DamageBack-Bay FloodingBack-Bay Filling

Shoreline ErosionSea-Level Rise

Low Elevation

HighPopulation

Shoreline DefenseShoreline Defense

Atlantic CityAtlantic City

Beach and Dune Construction

Dune BufferDune Buffer

SeawallSeawall

Dune RestorationDune Restoration

MigrationMigration

Atlantic OceanAtlantic Ocean

•95/97 DOQQ courtesy of NJDEP•Illustration created by Jeffrey Pace, Rutgers Coastal Geomorphology Group

•95/97 DOQQ courtesy of NJDEP•Illustration created by Jeffrey Pace, Rutgers Coastal Geomorphology Group

Sea Level RiseBayside Vulnerability

Psuty, May, 2011

Marsh Edge Loss

MARSH DYNAMICS

Accretion = 0.18-0.30 cm/yr Sea-Level Rise = 0.10-0.24 cm/yr

• Modified Shoreline Habitat

• Degraded Wetland

• Accelerated Fringe Erosion

• Open Water Habitat Expansion

REGIONAL FACTORS SUBSIDENCE

ISOSTATIC ADJUSTMENTSEDIMENT COMPACTION

• Modified Shoreline Habitat

• Degraded Wetland

• Accelerated Fringe Erosion

• Open Water Habitat Expansion

• Ocean Temperature Increase Down to 3000 m

Geographic Variability in the Rate of

Sea Level Rise

• Global Sea Level Rise 1.8 mm/yr during 20th century3.2 mm/yr during 2000-20103.3 mm/yr current rate of sea level rise

Observed Change – Oceans – Beaches

Why Is Global Sea Level Rising?

• Thermal ExpansionWarmer water is less dense than colder water

• Melting of Glaciers Valley glaciersIce sheets

Global mean sea level changes

The Greenhouse EffectThe burning of fossil fuels

and forests increases CO2 in the atmosphere.

Increases in CO2 cause more heat to be trapped in the earth's atmosphere.

As a result, global temperatures are rising.

Warmer temperatures raise sea levels (by melting more ice) and decrease agriculture output (by affecting weather patterns).

Deforestation

Clearing Tropical Rain Forests

Increases Atmospheric CO2

Accelerating Greenhouse Effect

Hottest years on record have occurred

during the past decade

Green bars show 95% confidence intervals

Global surface temperature since 1880

°C

Where we have been

Past century ofNJ climate variability

Warmer↓

MoreEvaporation

Warmer↓

MorePrecipitation

HURRICANE MITCHHURRICANE MITCH 1998

More floods and droughts?

Spruce Run Reservoir:March 2002

Easton-PhillipsburgBridge: June 2006

Delaware River: Sept. 2004

Nor'easterApril 15-16, 2007

Bound Brook

Manville

Sometimestoo much……

River Vale

The Greenland Ice Sheet Dominates Land

Ice in the ArcticOver the past two decades,

the melt area on the Greenland ice sheet has increased on average by

about 0.7%/year (or about 20% from 1979 to 2005).

The Greenland Ice Sheet Dominates Land

Ice in the ArcticOver the past two decades,

the melt area on the Greenland ice sheet has increased on average by

about 0.7%/year (or about 20% from 1979 to 2005).

Source: Business Week Aug. 2004

Greenland Ice Sheet Significant Melting

1979 - 2012

Total Melting Would Raise Sea Level 6-7 m

Antarctic Melting60-70 m

Greenland (10.8% of Global Ice)3 km thick

1.7 million square kilometers 2.6 million cubic meters (volume)286 GT/yr (melting rate)

Antarctic (84.6% of Global Ice)5 km thick

~14 million square kilometers~30 million cubic meters (volume)246 GT/yr (melting rate)

Impact of Sea Level Rise on New Jersey

Cooper, Beevers, and Oppenheimer 2005

Sustainable Development?Sustainable Development?

The End