climate change impacts climate change impacts, vulnerabilityyp and adaptation … change... ·...

Climate Change Impacts Climate Change Impacts Climate Change Impacts, Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation in Vulnerability and Adaptation in y py pthe Southern African Regionthe Southern African Region

Pius Z YandaPius Z. YandaProfessor and Director

Institute of Resource AssessmentInstitute of Resource AssessmentUniversity of Dar Es Salaam,

TanzaniaTanzania

Presentation OutlinePresentation OutlineClimate Change ImpactWho is Vulnerable? Who is Vulnerable? AdaptationP j d Cli Ch IProjected Climate Change ImpactsSocial Dimensions of Climate ChangeChallenges and Way Forward

Evidence of Climate ChangeEvidence of Climate Change

Evidence of Climate ChangeEvidence of Climate ChangeEvidence of Climate ChangeEvidence of Climate Change

Between 1970 and 2004 global ggreenhouse gas emissions have increased by 70 %,yCO2 is the largest contributor.

Evidence of climate changeEvidence of climate changeEvidence of climate changeEvidence of climate change

As a result, the world has warmed by an yaverage of 0.76° Celsius since pre-industrial times,Global average temperature is projected to increase further by 1.8° to 4°C if no yaction is taken.


Concentration of CO2 together with Concentration of CO2 together with other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has gone beyond the atmosphere has gone beyond the allowable limit.

It is now causing global warming.


We are all aware of indicators of global gwarming.◦ Global temperature increasep◦ Changes in rainfall pattern and intensity◦ Enhanced extreme events (droughts and ( g

floods)


Snow melting Mts. Kilimanjaro and RwenzoriRwenzori

Sea level rise due to 1975 2007

glacial melting in the northern and southern hemisphere hemisphere

Climate Change ImpactsClimate Change Impacts

Climate Change ImpactsClimate Change ImpactsClimate Change ImpactsClimate Change Impacts

Climate change is already affecting natural Climate change is already affecting natural and social systems,Examples of various effects are;Examples of various effects are;◦ Crop failure due to severe drought◦ Livestock mortality due to severe drought◦ Livestock mortality due to severe drought◦ Flooding due to excessive Rains◦ ffects on ecosystems (E g 30% decrease in fish ◦ ffects on ecosystems (E.g. 30% decrease in fish

yields in Lake Tanganyika (IPCC 2007).

Climate Change ImpactsClimate Change ImpactsClimate Change ImpactsClimate Change Impacts

Examples of various effects are;p ;◦ Potential threat to other biodiversity

resources (e g Hippos) due to droughtsresources (e.g. Hippos) due to droughts◦Migration from resources poor to

resource rich areas (humans livestock resource rich areas (humans, livestock, wildlife)R lti t fli t◦ Resulting to conflicts,

Farmers – livestock keepers (e.g. wetlands)Human – wildlife

IPCC 4AR; Easterling et al., 2007

160

180

120

140

160

60

80

100

Rai

nfal

l in

(mm

)

20

40

60

0Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Month1922-29 1930-39 2000-2007 1980-89

A change is reflected in terms of decreasing rainfall

Figure 3: Trends in monthly rainfall over the last 60 yearsSource: Lema and Majule (2009)

A change is reflected in terms of decreasing rainfall amount; shift in on set of rains and reduced duration, disappearing of one rainfall peak=Increasing dry spells

Observed Changes in rainfall patterns-case studies

• Shift of rainfall season (starting late ending early)• Low crop productivity (soil moisture stress due to

disappearance of one rainfall peak)disappearance of one rainfall peak)• Increased pests and diseases due to increasing

temperatureChanging of late to early maturing crop varieties • Changing of late to early maturing crop varieties

• Disappearance of some indigenous or local crop types and varieties (for example sorghum and local maize)

• Changing in cropping systems and patterns of crops in the fieldcrops in the field

• Loss of crop quality

Rwanda Science Policy Dialogue on Climate Change , Laico Umbano Hotel, 14‐15 October , 2010

Crop failure due to droughtCrop failure due to droughtCrop failure due to droughtCrop failure due to drought

Livestock Mortality due to Severe DroughtLivestock Mortality due to Severe DroughtLivestock Mortality due to Severe DroughtLivestock Mortality due to Severe Drought

Livestock Mortality due to Severe Livestock Mortality due to Severe DroughtDrought

Fl di D t E i R iFl di D t E i R iFlooding Due to Excessive RainsFlooding Due to Excessive Rains

18

Effects on Ecosystems due to Droughts (Hippos)

Who is Vulnerable?Who is Vulnerable?

Who is vulnerable?Who is vulnerable?Climate change affects everyone,However, vulnerabilities differ due to ,different adaptive capacities,Africa is the most vulnerable continent;Africa is the most vulnerable continent;◦ Climate change impacts on natural systems

(water, rainfall, etc.),( , , ),◦ Dependence on natural resources for

livelihoods,◦ Low technology to address climate change

challenges,◦ Exposure to multiple stresses,◦ Thus, low adaptive capacity.

Other Stress FactorsOther Stress FactorsOther Stress FactorsOther Stress Factors

Countries Facing Food Emergency

Other Stress FactorsOther Stress FactorsOther Stress FactorsOther Stress Factors

Who is vulnerable?Who is vulnerable?Who is vulnerable?Who is vulnerable?

Lik i h l l l l diff Likewise, at the local level different social groups are affected differently,The most vulnerable are;◦ Heavily dependent on natural resources Heavily dependent on natural resources, ◦ Exposed to multiple risks of climate

change (poor women and children)change (poor, women and children),◦ Exposed to other stress factors.

Who is vulnerable?Who is vulnerable?Who is vulnerable?Who is vulnerable?For example, women and men are paffected differently,◦ Unequal power relations,q p◦ Differential access to resources and economic

opportunities.

Climate change places additional burdens on women◦ By altering roles and tasks they perform◦ E.g. travelling long distances searching for .g. t ave g o g sta ces sea c g o

water and firewood

Who is vulnerable?Who is vulnerable?Who is vulnerable?Who is vulnerable?

Projected Climate Change Projected Climate Change ImpactsImpactsImpactsImpacts

Projected Impacts of Climate Projected Impacts of Climate ChangeChangeChangeChange

Climate change will affect various Climate change will affect various sectors in the region.F d P d tiFood Production◦ Falling crop yields in many areas◦ 50% crop yield reduction by 2020 (IPCC

2007)◦ 90% fall in crop revenues by 2100 (IPCC

2007)P ibl i i i ld i hi h l i d ◦ Possible rising yields in some high altitude regions

Projected Impacts of Climate Projected Impacts of Climate ChChChangeChange

Water Resources◦ Small mountain glaciers disappear.◦ Thus water supplies will be threatened ◦ Thus, water supplies will be threatened

in several areas. O ll i ifi t d f t ◦Overall significant decreases of water availability in many areas.

◦ Arid and semi-arid areas will be the most affected


Sea Level Rise;Sea Level Rise;◦ Projected to rise between the

t d th d f th t present and the end of the century by 0.2 - 0.6m.◦At the rate of 3.8 mm per year.◦Thermal expansion contributes to Thermal expansion contributes to 70 – 75%

Projected Impacts of Climate Projected Impacts of Climate ChangeChange

Sea Level Rise◦ Threatens major cities and settlements

in coastal areasin coastal areas◦ Salt water intrusions affecting water

availabilityavailability◦ Salt water intrusion in agricultural land

( dd fi ld )(e.g. paddy fields)◦ Beach erosion of formerly agricultural

l d ( f ld )land (coconut fields)

Major and Capital Cities of AfricaMajor and Capital Cities of Africaat risk due to sea level rise


EcosystemsEcosystems◦ Extensive damage to coral reefsR b f f ◦Rising number of species face extinction

Further reduction in lake productivity (e.g. Lake Tanganyika)Projected losses of over 50% for some bird species by 2050

Projected Impacts of Climate Projected Impacts of Climate ChangeChange

Ri i i t it fRising intensity of;◦ Storms◦ Forest Fires◦Droughts◦Droughts◦ Flooding◦Heat waves

Projected Impacts of Climate ChangeProjected Impacts of Climate Change

Human Security and Conflicts;Cli h h t bilit d ◦ Climate change threatens stability and human securityRi i th i fli t b li k d t ◦ Rising ethnic conflicts can be linked to competition over increasingly scarce natural resourcesnatural resources◦ Numbers of environmental refugees could

increase as extreme events, floods and ,famines become more frequent◦ Climate change could force millions of g

people from their native land by the end of the century

Projected Impacts of Climate ChangeProjected Impacts of Climate Changej p gj p gSource: Stern Review

Social Dimensions of Social Dimensions of Climate ChangeClimate ChangeClimate ChangeClimate Change

Climate Change Climate Change –– Opportunities and Opportunities and ChallengesChallengesChallengesChallenges

Extreme events provide opportunities p ppand challenges for certain social groups;groups;◦Opportunity for the well-off social

groups enhances wealthgroups – enhances wealthAcquire cattle, land and other h h ld f l households asserts from poor social group at cheaper prices

Climate Change Climate Change ––Opportunity and ChallengesOpportunity and Challenges◦ Climate change poses challenges to the ◦ Climate change poses challenges to the

poor people;L i th i t d b Losing their asserts and become poorer Poverty vicious cycle

H l ◦ However, community social asserts provide an important role in addressing h dhazards,◦ This poses a fundamental question on

how to target the needy social groups for adaptation.

Planning Scale for Climate Planning Scale for Climate Change InterventionsChange Interventions

A i f h d d Attention span for a person that depend on subsistence economy is very short term,Key issue is how to get the next meal.In such a situation, how do we design an intervention strategy that is appealing to all key players?We should frame climate change in the gcontext of local priorities.

Who are the cause of this Who are the cause of this l b l i i ?l b l i i ?global crisis?global crisis?

Sh ld b l k d i f hi i l Should be looked at it from historical perspectives,

hIn the beginning of 20th Century most of the developed countries went through industrial revolutionInvolved massive burning of fossil fuelThus massive emission of GHGs

The Prevailing EquationThe Prevailing EquationThe Prevailing EquationThe Prevailing Equation

Development in the developed countries p pbrought about global warming and the associated impacts.p

=Cli t h i d i i Climate change is undermining development efforts in developing

ticounties.Thus compromising efforts to attain P R d d MDG Poverty Reduction and MDGs targets.

Fairness in Dealing with Climate Fairness in Dealing with Climate Change ImpactsChange Impacts

No compliance on commitments by No compliance on commitments by Annex 1 countries to the Kyoto Protocol◦ GHG emissions reduction targets are not ◦ GHG emissions reduction targets are not

met.◦ Inadequate support for mitigation effortsInadequate support for mitigation efforts◦ Inadequate support for adaptations◦ Difficult access to funds◦ Difficult access to funds

BureaucracyLength processg pDemand for technical packaging of proposals

Fairness in Dealing with Climate Fairness in Dealing with Climate Change ImpactsChange Impacts

No recognition of contribution of developing No recognition of contribution of developing countries in climate change mitigation,Tropical counties have intact forests with huge p gcarbon stocks,The forests also sequester CO2 from the qatmosphereThe forests have been well managed at the expense of other development activitiesMajor deforestations have partly been by developed countries for timber logging, establishment of ranches and now biofuels.

Logging from Tropical ForestsLogging from Tropical ForestsLogging from Tropical ForestsLogging from Tropical Forests

Global balance of COGlobal balance of CO22 (decade 90)(decade 90)

CO2 Emissions

1,6 2 3 Terrestrial uptake

CO2 EmissionsOrigin Destination

Tropicaldeforestation

2,3

2,3 p

Ocean uptake

deforestation

6,3

3,3Accumulation inthe atmosphere

Fossil fuelcombustion

p

Billions of tonnes of carbon per year, average over the decade 1989-98

Source : Report from the Intergovernmental Panel ofExperts on Climate Change (IPCC)

Where is REDD Negotiation Taking Where is REDD Negotiation Taking Us? Us?

Payment for additionalityPayment for additionality,Not based on stewardship,R i f h i ll d di Requirement of technically demanding process of MARVAdvocacy on market based funding mechanismThe question is how will a poor community member with hardly 0.5 ha of tilled land going to benefit?

Where is REDD Negotiation Taking Where is REDD Negotiation Taking Us? Us?

Even for those who may have some forests, how will they access the market?What do we learn from other mitigation mechanisms,CDM – only 3% of the all the funded projects

i Af iare in Africa.What should we do with REDD – carefully designed to ensure the initiative enhances designed to ensure the initiative enhances sustainable development,What else could be motivation for REDD?What else could be motivation for REDD?◦ Enhancement of ecosystem integrity – provision of

goods and services

Adaptation OptionsAdaptation OptionsAdaptation OptionsAdaptation Options

Community response to climate change y p gimpactsCommunity Based AdaptationsCo u ty ase aptat o s

LimitationsLimitations◦ Lack of credit facilities

Li it d t h l◦ Limited technology◦ Inadequate information on projected level of

impactsimpacts

Implement appropriate agronomic practices at community level

Challenges and Way ForwardChallenges and Way Forward

ChallengesChallengesChallengesChallenges

Inadequate human and financial resources,qLimited national level information on;◦ Climate change impacts to natural and social Climate change impacts to natural and social

systems◦ Vulnerability of natural and social systemsy y

Inadequate packaging of existing informationinformationInadequate understanding of community response to climate change related response to climate change related hazards – e.g. role of social networks.

The Way ForwardThe Way Forwardyy

Need for integration of climate change in Need for integration of climate change in the development agendaClimate change is no longer an Climate change is no longer an environmental issue – it is a cross-cutting issueissueNeed to realize some community based d t ti t t i f liadaptation strategies for scaling-up,

The Way ForwardThe Way ForwardyyNeed for information generation (impacts and vulnerability assessments)and vulnerability assessments),◦ Will provide basis for informed planning for

interventionsinterventions.

Need for capacity building at different levels;levels;◦ Integration of climate change in the education

curriculacurricula.◦ Training for different cadres◦ Science policy dialogues◦ Science - policy dialogues◦ Awareness raising

The Way ForwardThe Way ForwardThe Way ForwardThe Way Forward

How doe we consolidate our regional gefforts?

Regional Centres of Excellences to coordinate gproposed interventions

All these require;qPolitical willMobilization of human and financial resourcesI am sure we can.

Role of the Universities Role of the Universities Role of the Universities Role of the Universities Knowledge generation◦ Research◦ Research

Capacity buildingM i i li h i h ◦ Mainstreaming climate change into the university curriculaSh t t t i k◦ Short courses to extension workers

Communicating scientific knowledge to li kpolicy makers

University collaborations to share the available human and physical resources

THANK YOU FOR LISTENING

Thank you for listeningThank you for listeningThank you for listeningThank you for listening

Thank you for Thank you for listeninglistening

climate change impacts climate change impacts, vulnerabilityyp and adaptation … change... ·...

Documents