climate change impacts on food and water in pakistan and options for adaptation by andrew bell
DESCRIPTION
Presentations made at the PSSP First Annual Conference - December 13, 14, 2012 - Planning Commission, Islamabad, PakistanTRANSCRIPT
IFPRI
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Climate change impacts on water and food in Pakistan
and options for adaptation
Tingju Zhu, Claudia Ringler, Tim Sulser, Andrew Bell, Mohsin Iqbal
The IMPACT Model Models global demand, yield, and trade of 38 agricultural economies at country-level resolution IMPACT-WATER model incorporates water availability across 126 basins as a driver Draws on supply, demand, and trade data from FAOSTAT, UN, World Bank, IFPRI Runs scenarios for growth in urban area, population, income, or changes in yield or yield elasticities, etc.
Climate affects water and food through changes in temperature and precipitation
Change in max temperature (degree C) Change in annual rainfall (mm)
2000 2050 2000 2050
Azad Kashmir 27.7 +1.4 to 3.2 765 -139 to +18
Baluchistan 38.6 +1.3 to 2.6 151 -3 to +55
F.A.T.A. 34.4 +1.7 to 4.1 482 -45 to +33
F.C.T. 38.6 +1.4 to 3.4 911 -105 to +12
N.W.F.P. 30.2 +1.5 to 3.5 609 -80 to +26
Northern Areas 17.0 +1.5 to 3.2 194 -14 to +51
Punjab 41.6 +1.4 to 2.6 299 -32 to +77
Sind 41.6 +1.2 to 2.7 171 +12 to +90
Scenarios: MIR-A1, ECH-A1, CSI-A1, CNR-A1
Source: IFPRI, 2012
Impact of CC on runoff
Source: IFPRI-IMPACT, 2012
Impact of CC irrigation
Source: IFPRI-IMPACT, 2012
Wheat yields (reference scenarios)
Source: IFPRI-IMPACT, 2012
Global wheat prices (reference scenarios)
Source: IFPRI-IMPACT, 2012
Rice yields (reference scenarios)
Source: IFPRI-IMPACT, 2012
CC increases PAK net cereal imports
Source: IFPRI-IMPACT, 2012
Parameters
INC AG RES:
SRF_PAK1
INC AG RES w/EFF:
SRF_PAK2
INC AG RES w/EFF & IRR
EXP: SRF_PAK3
PAK_ST PAK_BE PAK4 (PAK3 +
PAK_BE)
Livestock n growth
+ 30% + 30% + 30% n.c. n.c. + 30%
Livestock yield growth
n.c.
+ 30% from 2015
+ 30% from 2015
n.c. n.c. + 30% from
2015 + 50% from
2030 + 50% from
2030 n.c. n.c.
+ 50% from 2030
Food crop yield growth
+ 60%
+ 60% + 60% n.c. n.c. + 60% + 78% from
2015 + 78% from
2015 n.c. n.c.
+ 78% from 2015
+ 90% from 2030
+ 90% from 2030
n.c. n.c. + 90% from
2030
Irrig effic n.c. +20% +20%
Storage +50% gradually until 2050, total 5.3 MAF
Irrigated area growth
n.c. n.c. + 25% n.c. n.c. + 25%
Rainfed area growth
n.c. n.c. - 15% n.c. n.c. - 15%
Six Adaptation scenarios
n.c. = no change
Average Yield Impact, Alternative Adaptation Scenarios, 2050, compared to CC Scenarios
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
PAK1 PAK2 PAK3 PAK_ST PAK_BE PAK4
Rice Wheat Maize Cotton
Note: results are average of 4 CC and 1 noCC scenario runs. Source: IFPRI-IMPACT, 2012
PAK wheat trade, alternative scenarios (mmt)
Source: IFPRI-IMPACT, 2012
PAK rice trade, alternative scenarios (mmt)
Source: IFPRI-IMPACT, 2012
KCAL consumption in 2010 and 2050 (NoCC and CC scenarios)
Source: IFPRI-IMPACT, 2012
KCAL consumption in 2050 (NoCC, CC, and adaptation scenarios)
Source: IFPRI-IMPACT, 2012
Adaptation for irrigation
Notes: IWSR values were averaged across four climate change scenarios and the NoCC case, for No Adapt and the two water-based adaptation scenarios.
Conclusions
Climate change impacts in Pakistan affect crop yields and food production negatively
Cereal imports need to increase significantly as a result of climate change
Investments in agricultural research and water can reduce the adverse impacts of CC
Under the most far-reaching scenario, combining large investments in agricultural R&D and irrigation efficiency, PAK could become a net wheat exporter
Conclusions
Irrigation water supply is relatively insensitive to storage augmentation, in part as only 5.3 MAF is added gradually over 40 years
The most effective water-based adaptation is to invest in irrigation efficiency improvement, for which Pakistan has great potential
Strong agricultural and water investments in PAK alone can improve PAK calorie availability under CC and thus help reduce malnutrition levels, but adverse CC impacts drive up prices globally; thus caloric improvement remains limited as higher global prices affect food affordability in PAK as well