climate change impacts to glacier national park and other mountainous areas
DESCRIPTION
Climate Change Impacts to Glacier National Park and other mountainous areas. Daniel B. Fagre Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center. Eh?. Photo by Karl Birkeland/ FS NAC. Emphases of Program. Trends in ecosystem responses Underlying processes of ecosystem change - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Climate Change Impacts to Glacier National Park and other mountainous areas
Daniel B. FagreNorthern Rocky Mountain Science Center
Eh?
Photo by Karl Birkeland/ FS NAC
Emphases of Program
• Trends in ecosystem responses
• Underlying processes of ecosystem change
• Modeling of dynamics to project future
Grinnell Lake and Grinnell Glacier, 1910
Photo by Kiser, courtesy GNP Archives
Grinnell Glacier from Mt. GouldGrinnell Glacier from Mt. Gould
19381938Hileman
photo/ GNP Archives
19811981Key/ USGS
photo
19981998Fagre/ USGS
photo
20052005Reardon/
USGS photo
SperryGlacier
1850
1901
1913
1927
1938
1945
1959
1960
1966
1969
1979
1993
5 Years of Melting
• Agassiz 1993 – 1.02• Agassiz 1998 – 0.93
• Blackfoot 1993 – 1.74• Blackfoot 1998 – 1.63
• Chaney 1993 – 0.54• Chaney 1998 – 0.48
• Old Sun 1993 – 0.42• Old Sun 1998 – 0.35
• Rainbow 1993 – 1.21• Rainbow 1998 – 1.15
• Red Eagle 1993 – 0.15• Red Eagle 1998 – 0.08
Glacier Factoids
• 150 in 1850 to 27 or less in 2006
• Less than 28% of the glacier area remains
• Less than 10% of the glacier volume remains
• Glaciers continue to disintegrate and melt
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How much snow How much snow accumulates each winter?accumulates each winter?
• Snow depth measurementsSnow depth measurements• 0 – 7+m deep0 – 7+m deep
Sperry Glacier. June 24, 2005. Photos by Blasé Reardon and Dan Fagre.
How much mass accumulates each winter?How much mass accumulates each winter?• 560kg/m560kg/m3 3 avg. densityavg. density• 65-95” SWE65-95” SWE
Sperry Glacier. June 25, 2005. Dan Fagre photo.
How much mass How much mass melts each summer?melts each summer?•Ablation stakesAblation stakes
Huecke Portable Ice Drill, courtesy Joel Harper UM Dept. of Geology
•5.1m avg. height loss5.1m avg. height loss•9cm/ day rate in snow9cm/ day rate in snow•4cm/ day rate in ice4cm/ day rate in ice•.5 - 1.7m ice loss.5 - 1.7m ice loss
Sperry Glacier, Aug. 8, 2005. John Newton photo
How fast does Sperry flow? How deep is it?How fast does Sperry flow? How deep is it?•Partnership w/UM Geology Dept. (Prof. Joel Harper & students)Partnership w/UM Geology Dept. (Prof. Joel Harper & students)•Velocity (GPS) 3-5cm/dayVelocity (GPS) 3-5cm/day•Ice depth (10mHz radar)Ice depth (10mHz radar)•Basic research into mass flux questionsBasic research into mass flux questions
Joe
l Bro
wn
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oto
Bed surfaceBed surfaceBed surfaceBed surface
Aquatic invertebrate species distribution
in response to stream temperature
Hydropsyche cockerelli
Arctopsyche grandis
Parapsyche elsis
Minimal glacial runoff
Present glacialrunoff
Three fish species from Glacier National Park, MT USA
Westslope cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarki lewisi)
Native species
Rainbow trout (Oncorhyncus mykiss)
Brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis)
Non-native species
Pacific Basin InfluencesPacific Basin InfluencesPDO Warm Phase PDO Cool Phase
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)•El-Nino-like pattern of climate variability•20-30 year cycles•North Pacific Phenomenon
Climate Fluctuations Modern instrumentation Climate sensitive tree
rings
Methods
Glacier NP Summer Drought
1930’s Dust Bowl
LIA Glac. Max.
1850 Summer Drought & Glacier Recession
191319451993
Fires Episodes
?
Climate and Douglas-fir growth
Sample plots cover the complete biophysical gradient space of Douglas-fir.
Water-limited vs. energy-limited systems.
PNW node
Net primary production (NPP, kgC m-2 y-1) vs. precipitation (PRCP, mm y-1), temperature (Temp, oC), and incident shortwave radiation (RAD, MJ m-2 d-1) for 1980-1997.
NPP vs. PRCP
NPP vs. Temp
NPP vs. RAD
Change Detection Map
Outflow (A2 minus Control simulation)
Mote 2003(b)
Decrease Increase
20th Century Trends In Snowpack
Courtesy of Mike Dettinger, Iris Stewart, Dan Cayan
+20d later–20d earlier
Trends in Timing of Spring Snowmelt
In summer 2002, pinyon (Pinus edulis) began dying en masse from drought stress and an associated bark beetle outbreak.
Jemez Mts. near Los Alamos, October 2002
Conversion from PJ to J woodlands… Jemez Mts., May 2004
Olympic andNorth Cascades
Sierra Nevada
Southern RockyMountains
Central RockyMountains
Northern RockyMountains
The U.S. Geological Survey’sWestern Mountain Initiative (WMI)
of global change research sites
The model
The domain
PNW node
Air-quality modeling in mountain protected areas – typically the worst days are caused by wildfire.
“pristine”
“severely degraded”
GLobal Observation Research Initiative in Alpine Environments
• developed by researchers at the University of Vienna, Austria
•initiative towards an international research network to assess climate change impacts on mountain environments
• in line with international research demands, e.g. •Mountain Research Initiative •Global Terrestrial Observation System•Global Mountain Biodiversity Assessment
Glacier National Park, MT
CLIMET TransectCLIMET Transect
Western Mountain Initiative
The American Cordillera Transect
GLOCHAMOREGLOCHAMORE
GLORIA Project