climate change impacts & vulnerability of water-dependent ......issued as part of jordan’s...
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Climate Change Impacts & Vulnerability of
Water-dependent Sectors in the Arab Region
Key Findings of the RICCAR
Arab Climate Change Assessment Report
Carol Chouchani Cherfane
Chief, Water Resources Section; RICCAR Coordinator
ESCWA
IsDB-ESCWA EGM on Mainstreaming Climate Action into National Development
Planning in the Arab Region (Amman, 25-27 November 2019)
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Intergovernmental mandates calling for & supportingClimate Change Assessment in the Arab Region
EnvironmentForeign Affairs &
PlanningMetWater Agriculture
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RICCAR
NegotiationsAssessment Adaptation Mitigation
Objective: To assess the impact of climate change on freshwater
resources in the Arab Region through a consultative regional
initiative that scientifically identifies the socio-economic and
environmental vulnerability caused by climate change impacts on
water resources based on regional specificities.
Purpose: To provide a common platform for assessing, addressing
and informing response to climate change impacts on freshwater
resources in the Arab region by serving as the basis for dialogue,
priority setting and policy formulation on climate change at the
regional level.
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RICCAR Partnerships
RICCAR Publication Series
GCM: Global Climate Modelling VA: Vulnerability Assessment
RCM: Regional Climate Modelling IM: Integrated Mapping
RHM: Regional Hydrological Modeling netcdf to ArcGIS
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Integrated Assessment
The Arab Domain
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From R.K Kolli, WMO
RICCAR EGM #2 (Beirut, 2010)
IPCC regional domains
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IPCC Assessment Report 5 – WGI: Annex I
Draft: 30 September 2013
SREX: Special Report on Managing the Risks of
Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance
Climate Change Adaptation
IPCC regional domains
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Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)As first represented in IPCC AR5 Projections
High Emissions Scenario
Graph adapted from: Meinshausen et al.,2010
CORDEX
CORDEX
Extre
me
clim
ate
even
ts
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Regional Climate Modeling & Hydrological Modeling
Different
GCMs
Same RCP
300 km x 300 km
Ensembles
used to
reduce
uncertainty
at level of
RCMs &
RHMs
Ensembles
aggregate
findings of
different
RCMs &
RHMs
applied for
same RCP
& Domain
Temperature in the Arab region is increasing and is expected
to continue to increase until the end of the century.
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Precipitation trends are largely decreasing across the Arab region until the end of the century, though limited areas expected to exhibit an increase in the intensity and volume of precipitation.
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Extreme events indices
Extreme temperature indices Extreme precipitation indices
Index Full name Index Full name
SU Number of summer days CDD Maximum length of dry spell
SU35 Number of hot days CWD Maximum length of wet spell
SU40 Number of very hot days R10Annual count of 10 mm
precipitation days
TR Number of tropical nights R20Annual count of 20 mm
precipitation days
SDIISimple precipitation intensity
index
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Climate Impacts on Shared Water Resources
Variable RCP4.5 RCP8.5
Temp. 2.3◦C 4.8◦C
Precip. 3% 0%
Runoff -2% -12%
Euphrates River(1986-2005) : (2081-2100)
Integrated Vulnerability Assessment:
Sectors and Subsectors
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10
Sensitivity
indicators
20 Adaptive
Capacity
indicators
Vulnerability Assessment Impact Chain
Water Availability
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Exposure
indicators
Reference Period (1986-2005)
Mid-Century RCP 4.5
End-Century RCP 4.5
End-Century RCP 8.5
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10
Sensitivity
indicators
20
Adaptive
Capacity
indicators
6
Exposure
indicators
Vulnerability Assessment Impact Chain
Agriculture: Crops
Reference
Mid-Century RCP 4.5
End-Century RCP 4.5
End-Century RCP 8.5
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Vulnerability Assessment Impact Chain
Inland Flooding
Implic
atio
n fo
r Tra
nsport &
Infra
stru
ctu
re
Inland Flooding – Reference Period – Exposure
Inland Flooding – Reference Period – Adaptive Capacity
Inland Flooding – Reference Period – Vulnerability
Inland Flooding – Mid-Century – RCP 4.5 – Vulnerability
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Vulnerability Assessment Impact Chain
Heat StressIm
plic
atio
n fo
r Energ
y U
se
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Vulnerability Assessment
Heat Stress – Reference Period – Exposure
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Vulnerability Assessment
Heat Stress – Reference Period – Adaptive Capacity
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Vulnerability Assessment Impact Chain
Heat Stress – Reference Period – Vulnerability
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Vulnerability Assessment Impact Chain
Heat Stress – End-Century – RCP 8.5 – Vulnerability
• Jordan – Ministry of Water and
Irrigation: Climate Change Policy
for a Resilient Water Sector Policy
issued as part of Jordan’s National
Water Strategy issued in 2016.
• Lebanon – Ministry of
Environment: Lebanon’s Third
National Communication to the
UNFCCC submitted in 2016.
• Lebanon / Tunisia / Sudan –
Ministries of Agriculture: Using
RICCAR data and integrated
vulnerability assessment tools for
assessing climate change impacts
on water resources and agricultural
sector.37
• State of Palestine – Environment
Quality Authority: State of
Palestine Initial National
Communication Report to the
UNFCCC submitted in 2016.
• Basin-level analyses: The
Collaborative Programme on the
Euphrates and Tigris builds on
RICCAR’s regional climate
modelling and hydrological
modelling outputs to support more
detailed analyses at the basin level.
• Egypt (MWRI), Kuwait (KISR),
Morocco (groundwater): Using
RICCAR modelling outputs to inform
national/sub-national studies.
RICCAR findings used to inform:
Regional Knowledge Hub
www.riccar.org
Regional Knowledge Hub: Data Portal
