Implications of Global Climate Change for Tourism Flows and Seasonality

Elnara Mehdiyeva Anaa SaleemAndrea Cecchi

Environmental and Natural Resources Policy- Case study

AGENDA

• The objectives of the case• Introduction• The main motivations for travelling• The ways how weather is characterised by different type

of leisure• Tourism Seasonality• The Tourism Climatic Index• Conceptual framework of tourism climate distributions• Methods & Results• Conclusion• Questions

THE OBJECTIVES OF THE CASE

1

• To assess the potential implications of projected climate change on international & regional tourism flows throughout the 21 c.

2

• To assess the implications of projected climate change on tourism seasonality in the summer European market

INTRODUCTION

• Climate change as a significant social& environmental issue

• The rise of temperature since 1861 as the proves of Global Climate change

• The rise of global sea level • Possible changes in the future

THE MAIN MOTIVATIONS FOR TRAVELLING

• The impact of psychological needs • The ‘’push’’ & ‘’pull’’ factors• A strong relationship between the weather

and tendency to travel

THE WAYS HOW WEATHER IS CHARACTERISED BY DIFFERENT TYPE OF LEISURE

• The IISD’s point of view distinction between tourism and recreation

• Smith’s discrimination of climate- dependent & weather-sensitive tourism

Climate change Time

Changes in climatic

seasonality

TOURISM AND SEASONALITY• The seasonality caused by:

Natural factorsExamples:

TemperaturePerception

Depth of Snow

Institutional factors Examples:

Timing of religious (i.e. Christmas)

Timing of school Annual festival

THE CORE OF SEASONALITY Negative

to the profits, the attraction of investment capital, and the

employment situation.

Positiveto the opportunities for ecological

and community recovery which provided during the offseason.

THE TOURISM CLIMATIC INDEX (TCI)

• TCI allows quantitative evaluation of the world’s climate for the purpose of general tourism activity.

• TCI designed to indicate the level of climatic comfort for tourism activity but NOT the tourism infrastructures (e.g. transportation).

THE TOURISM CLIMATIC INDEX (TCI)• THE TCI IS BASED ON: 5 COMPONENTS OF TOURISM

CLIMATIC INDEX

TCI= 4CID +CIA+2R+2S+W• Maximum daily temperature (ºC) • Minimum daily relative humidity (%)

1- Daytime comfort index

• Mean daily temperature (ºC)• Mean daily relative humidity (%)2- Daily comfort index

• Precipitation (mm)3- Precipitation

• Daily duration of sunshine (hours)4- Sunshine

• Average Wind speed (m/s or km/h)5- Wind speed

THE TOURISM CLIMATIC INDEX (TCI)• TCI index has rating numbers of the comfort

level of tourism activities, and thus, a region with a high TCI may experience low levels of tourism arrivals, and on the other hand, a region with a low TCI may experience high levels of tourism arrivals, because a multitude of other factors besides climatic conditions influence tourism activity.

Value of index 90-100 Ideal

comfort of Tourism Activity

Value of index 50-59

Acceptable comfort of

Tourism Activity

Value of index 10-19

extremely unfavorable comfort of

Tourism Activity

Value of index below 9

Impossible comfort of

Tourism Activity

CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK OF TOURISM CLIMATE DISTRIBUTIONS

• TCI indicates the most favorable climate conditions or general tourism activity occur in the dry season; applies, e.g., to the monsoon regions of Asia

• TCI indicates the most favorable climate conditions for general tourism activity occur in the spring and autumn (shoulder) months

• TCI indicates the most favorable climate conditions for peak general tourism activity occur in the (northern) winter months

• TCI includes the most favorable climate conditions for general occur in the (northern) summer months

Summer Peak

Winter peak

Dry season peak

Bimodal

shoulder peaks

METHODS

TCI calculated for a series of current and future time spans

We consider two different scenarios:• A1: rapid and successful economic

development; high rates of innovation and investments

• B1: environmentally and socially conscious future, globally approach to sustainable development

RESULTS

We focus the results on:

Northern hemispheric summer

Number of locations included in “good months”

Changes will be based on the two climate change scenarios

NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC SUMMER

• Strong correlation between TCI index and currently popular summer destinations

• FUTURE A1: pronounced poleward movement in tourism comfort

ideal conditions: northern Europe and Canada• FUTURE B1: less dramatic poleward shift• ideal conditions: northern France, southern

parts of UK and southern Scandinavia

TCI VALUES FOR SUMMER 2080S, A1

NUMBER OF GOOD MONTHS (TCI > 70)

VALUES, A1

GOOD MONTHS ( TCI > 70)NORTHERN HEMISPHERE

CURRENTLY>10 months (Egypt, Morocco, Mexico, and Perù)6/7 months (Spain, Italy, Greece, Turkey …)2/3 months (Denmark, Sweden, Finland …)

FUTURE (by 2080s)A1 No more high comfort placesB1 Just a handful of comfortable condition areas

GOOD MONTHS ( TCI > 70) SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE:

Regions of high confort shifting southwards

• i.e. From the coast of Peru to that of Chile

• i.e From the north of Australia to the south side

Trends repeated across both A1 and B1 scenarios

IMPLICATIONS: European tourism is moving northwardsSouth of Europe from 7 to 4 “good months”North of Europe will increase its level of comfort

CONCLUSION

• Climate is a principal resource for tourism & a principal driver of global seasonality in tourism demand

• Climate affects a wide range of the environmental resources that are critical attractions for tourism, such as snow conditions, wildlife productivity and biodiversity

• The countries that experience better summer conditions would face large increases in visitation without being able to shift some additional demand to the shoulder seasons

• Climate change bring some relief to extreme cases of seasonality, but institutions & tourists should be sensitive

• Is TCI a proper index to assess to most comfort places? Is the empirical view agreed with the results of index?

• Do you think that the climate changes will negatively influence on willingness to travel to habitual destinations?

Resources: • Implication of Global Climate Change for Tourism Flows and Seasonality

(Bas Amelung, Sarah Nicholls and david Viner)

Journal of Travel Research 2007 45:285

• Amelung, Sarah Nicholls and david Viner. (2007, January 1). Implications of Global Climate Change for Tourism Flows and Seasonality . Journal of Travel Research . Retrieved December 5, 2012, from http://jtr.sagepub.com/content/45/3/285

• B., Nicholls, S., & Viner, D.. (2007, January 1). TCI Values. Implications of Global Climate Change for Tourism Flows and Seasonality. Retrieved December 5, 2012, from Amelung, Sarah Nicholls and david Viner. (2007, January 1). Implications of Global Climate Change for Tourism Flows and Seasonality . Journal of Travel Research . Retrieved December 5, 2012, from http://jtr.sagepub.com/content/45/3/285 http://www.carrs.msu.edu/Main/People/faculty%20bios/extra/nicho210-journal.pdf