climate change in africa post-copenhagen: what is at stake? simon carter program manager, climate...
Post on 19-Dec-2015
217 views
TRANSCRIPT
- Slide 1
- CLIMATE CHANGE IN AFRICA POST-COPENHAGEN: WHAT IS AT STAKE? Simon Carter Program Manager, Climate Change Adaptation International Development Research Centre Nov. 26, th 2009
- Slide 2
- Outline of talk How is Africa affected by climate change? Can Africa adapt to climate change? How? What is needed to support adaptation?
- Slide 3
- Why are African nations asking for developed countries to commit to deeper emissions cuts? Reduction of GHG by developed countries of 40% compared to 1990, by 2020 How is Africa affected by climate change?
- Slide 4
- Climate change is happening now Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, 2007
- Slide 5
- What people are experiencing and less predictable Extreme and unpredictable weather Rising sea levels Shrinking water resources Soil degradation Livelihood stress Physical insecurity Food insecurity Getting hotter and drier
- Slide 6
- Increasing impacts: drought in Kenya Source: Oxfam (2006): Making the case. A national drought contingency fund for Kenya. 2009 Famine Early Warning System. Numbers of people directly affected by drought
- Slide 7
- Emissions are increasing faster than anticipated Source: Raupach et al, 2007
- Slide 8
- Future scenarios and possible impacts of continued emissions growth Can only be estimated, using models Multiple models can be compared to identify robust patterns Very conservative (eg IPCC scenarios)
- Slide 9
- Five degrees warmer? Percentage change in length of growing period, 2090s compared with present, for the average of the three AR4 SRES scenarios scaled to a global temperature increase of 5C, means of 14 GCMs. CropYield (kg per ha) % Yield Change 2000s 2090s +5C Maize954706-26 Beans656305-54 B. decumbens 13861368 Source: Thornton and Jones, 2009
- Slide 10
- (Source IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Working Group II Chapter 9) Increased exposure to water stress by 2055
- Slide 11
- Can Africa adapt? Not to five degrees of warming Uncertainty is very great pace, extent, costs Underlying, non-climatic factors limit peoples adaptive capacity limited success in addressing these factors No solutions paradigm shift needed
- Slide 12
- People are adapting - and we know a lot about how to support their efforts
- Slide 13
- Vulnerability: Who? Where? To what?
- Slide 14
- Existing livelihoods are changing
- Slide 15
- Adaptation can be enhanced, in familiar ways
- Slide 16
- Launched 2006 by DFID & IDRC CAD $65 million 46 projects across continent Action research and capacity building Climate Change Adaptation in Africa program (CCAA)
- Slide 17
- Capacity development through Participatory Action Research Desired conditions Present conditions Planning: Define desired conditions and actions to achieve them Monitoring: describe present conditions and follow implementation of actions Reflection/evaluation: compare present conditions to the desired ones, assess the value and effectiveness of actions Learning: Adjust actions to reach desired conditions more effectively; gaining knowledge through iteration Action, monitoring Reflection, evaluation Planning Learning
- Slide 18
- Adapting to drought in northern Kenya
- Slide 19
- Strengthening adaptive capacity in Rural Benin
- Slide 20
- Felix Levoavy, farmer, member of the local reflection group in Tampolo, region of Analanrifo, Madagascar Adapting to change in Madagascar
- Slide 21
- Paulette Marisoa, farmer, member of the local reflection group in Tampolo, region of Analanrifo, Madagascar
- Slide 22