Picture from “Where the Rain Falls” project Case Study: Ghana pg. 62

Climate Change in Ghana: Agriculture and Food Security

Michalak CEP 302 Winter 2014

Davin Simmons, Danielle Gilmour and Nimotalai Azeez 2-9-2014

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND IMPACTS ON GHANA’S CLIMATE:

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has provided scientific evidence of climate change’s existence and impact on our world. These climatic changes have been positively linked to human activities as the result of an increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration. Human activities that contribute carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide include: burning of fossil fuels, changes in land use and changes in land cover. This increased level of GHG directly impacts mean global surface temperature. According to the IPCC, the last three decades have proven to each be successively warmer on the surface of the Earth than any decade before 1850. Globally, climate change is projected to cause increased global temperatures, changes in weather, rising sea levels, and more frequent extreme weather events (IPCC WG I, 2007).

Because Ghana is in a subtropical dry region on the coast of the Atlantic Ocean, these impacts of temperature, weather and sea level are not only applicable, but will most likely be highly disruptive to the Ghanaian climate and livelihoods of the Ghanaian people. Global mean sea levels will be continuously rising throughout the 21st century due to increased ocean temperatures and the melting of glaciers and ice sheets. This will impact coastal infrastructure in many areas. It is also very certain that heat waves will happen with higher temperature frequency and increased duration. The most pertinent change in climate for Ghana will have to do with precipitation and extreme weather events. In subtropical dry regions mean precipitation will likely decrease. This is coupled with decreases in soil moisture and increased agricultural drought in presently dry regions. These droughts will be interrupted by destructive extreme precipitation events in mid-latitude land masses. These extreme weather events will become more frequent and more intense by the end of the century (IPCC WG I, 2007).

It’s been predicted that there will be fluctuations in the yearly temperatures in Ghana for the coming years (Brown and Crawford 2008). However, there is a predicted period to 2050 that will be characterized by warming temperatures in Ghanaian regions and especially in the regions at the north-where there is an indication of temperatures of up to 2.2 to 2.4 degrees Celsius (Assan et al. 2009). It has also become clear that the nation’s wettest regions are those near the forests, including Ashanti and the western areas. Therefore, northern areas and southern regions will continue to be dry, and the nation will experience varying climatic conditions. Climate changes affect the Western Region, the Brong-Ahafo areas and Northern section of the country during periods of severe draughts as well as floods (Gyampoh et al. 2008). High temperatures are experienced in most parts of Northern Ghana. These regions also experiences floods during periods of high rains. This leads to loss of agricultural products along with farm crops that are likely to increase famine. For instance, the World Food Program (WFP)

indicated that 680,000 citizens representing 16% of three countries in northern areas of Ghana were severely or moderately suffering from food insecurity (De Pinto et. al, 2013).

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON FOOD SECURITY:

Climate change affects almost all the nations of the world. Floods and droughts have been destroying both crops and harvests of many farmers across different nations; leaving them in miserable economic and health conditions. Climate change has emerged as one aspect that has, and will continue, to affect farming in Africa. Effects of climate change have already proven prevalent in Ghanaian agriculture over the past few years. In the last several decades, there have been instances where a majority of crops were destroyed by periods of high rains and heat (Brown and Crawford 2008). Research has indicated that the vulnerability of agriculture in Ghana has been influenced by the nation’s over-dependence on rainfall. Change in climate is identified to be exacerbating the underlying problems in the nation- affecting the agricultural sector of the country’s economy (Kurukulasuriya et.al. 2006). Such difficulties include division of societies and disputes on allocation of water resources between regions. Another problem is the cross-boundary sues on water and tensions that arose from dependence on crops that are most susceptible to alterations in climatic situations (Assan et. al 2009).

Climate change is predicted to create water and heat stress, an outbreak of both diseases and pests, and loss of productivity in lands due to ecosystems deterioration. Additional burdens are increased losses on harvests during the periods of storage and distribution.

Climate change has affected agricultural sectors in many aspects since the domestic economy, along with most of the livelihoods, in Ghana revolve around the field of agriculture. For the people of Ghana, agriculture is more than the food they eat but also a means of livelihood. Half of the population works in the agriculture sector. One of the reasons behind climate change is greenhouse gas emissions-unfortunately, agriculture in Ghana also contributes to greenhouse gas emissions. Not only is adapting to climate change and finding ways to mitigate food insecurity difficult for the region, but even more challenging is that producing food is part of the problem (De Pinto et al., 2012). Different types of agriculture include irrigation, using artificial means to produce crops. Livestock, which is farming domestic animals. And lastly, rainfed crops, that depend explicitly on rainfall. Since a majority of Ghana’s agriculture is rainfed, for the purpose of this report and looking at climate change impacts, rainfed agriculture will be the focus. Because of the impacts of climate change to Ghana’s agriculture, like decreased rainfall, rainfed crops are most at risk (Nutsukpo et al.).

According to Rademacher-Schulz and Mahama’s findings there have been shifts in when Ghana’s seasons start. In sub-Saharan Africa there are two seasons, rainy or wet season and dry season. Typically, rainy season begins in April or May, research shows that rain has decreased during those months but increased at the end of the rainy season between June and August. There has been an overall decrease in rainfall linked to climate change. Based on the Participatory Research Approach (PRA) sessions, participants noted specific changes they have noticed in climate and crop production. The changes they noticed vary from extreme weather to more dry spells, but that 92 percent of participants agreed that climate has been less predictable (Rademacher-Schulz & Mahama, 2012).

As rainfed crops are most vulnerable in Ghana due to climate change, a study was conducted to see the potential effects on rainfed maize, rice, groundnuts by 2050. In each region, rainfed maize had a slight decrease, while rainfed rice estimates showed a moderate decrease in crop yields. And lastly, in all regions rainfed groundnuts had the highest decrease in crop yields based on the estimates. All three of these crops are major staples in Ghana, however these results show that climate change will create an overall decrease in these crops unless adaptations are made. Ghana’s rural areas in the Upper East, Upper West and Northern region show how there is variation in these crop estimates, this area is drier than the rest of the country and experiences lack of development, so this makes the area more vulnerable to climate change. Although the predictions for rainfed maize showed a potential increase in crops in the Upper East and Northern region. In summary, Ghana is looking at a future with threatening food security if no adaptations or developmental policies are put in place (De Pinto et al., 2012).

VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE:

Research shows that projected climate change will directly and indirectly affect food security in Ghana. The high degree of sensitivity to these changes can be explained by analyzing Ghana’s geographical location, current and projected climate conditions, and other stresses to agricultural production. Variability in rainfall and temperature has made agriculture very sensitive to climate change, this also makes it challenging for farmers to predict for their crops, in turn affecting their livelihood (Assan et al., 2009). Aside from rainfall and temperature, agricultural production is also sensitive to extreme weather that adds additional stress on the entire system. Events like floods and droughts lead to destroyed crops, property damage, and other stresses that do not contribute to crop productivity (Rademacher-Schulz & Mahama, 2012). Existing stress in Ghana ranges from economic disparities and population, to removal of areas that have mixed crops-once used to be forested1. In addition to stress and climate

1 http://data1.whicdn.com/images/64668292/original.jpg

conditions contributing to high sensitivity in Ghana, the demand for food as a resource is also of concern. The demand for food in urban parts of the country are increasing with a rise in population, while the rural areas are not able to transport that food into those areas due to poor roads (Nutsukpo et al., 2013). Due to this circumstance the demand for food in the urban areas is likely to pass the supply from the rural parts, thus adding to the sensitivity.

Exposure is an important consideration when analyzing degrees of sensitivity. It shows how much a system is susceptible to the impacts of climate change. Since Ghana is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, that exposes the means of food production. First, Ghana is a part of West Africa which is located near the equator and part of sub-Saharan Africa. The climate is tropical, and typically has two seasons, wet and dry season. Climate change has directly altered these seasons-for residents and farmers it has become more apparent that the amount of rain decreases at the beginning of each wet season, and increased at the end of each season. Because of Ghana’s location and seasonal variability it is more exposed to climate impacts that negatively impact crops like unpredictable rainfall, increased temperatures, and longer dry periods (Rademacher-Schulz & Mahama, 2012). Ghana is quite exposed to the impacts of climate change, as well as, the surrounding countries in sub-Saharan Africa. For instance, water is already a scarce resource in that region of Africa, so rainfall variability or dry spells make that region even more exposed (Kurukulasuriya et al., 2006).

Another method to analyzing vulnerability is looking at the adaptive capacity of a system. Adaptive capacity measures how a given area accommodates to the changes in climate. If an area has a high adaptive capacity, they have the means and resources to combat the negative impacts climate change could have on their system. On the other hand, a place with a low adaptive capacity, like Ghana, struggles to deal with the results of climate change. Not only would Ghana have to cope with changes in climate conditions, but those conditions will lead to more issues. Such as, a rising sea level by 2100 would affect over 100,000 people and cost the country over 1 billion US dollars because the coast is so close to important roads and buildings. Aside from weather changes, food insecurity will get worse because of poor soil conditions and ocean warming. Climate change will impact Ghana’s natural resources, this natural resources make up a large part of the economy as well, and without adequate natural resources it will be hard to pay for the damage done to the resources (Brown & Crawford, 2008).

An additional barrier that stands in the way for Ghana to increase their adaptive capacity is population. Currently about 25 million people, the population was only 4 million people 60 years ago. This dramatic increase in population and the limited amount of resources contributes to poverty and slowed development. Plus, like other

countries in sub-Saharan Africa access to sufficient health care, clean water, and food is a national struggle. These are issues in addition to climate change that the country has to tackle. However, Ghana is off to a good start and is sometimes called “one of the leading democratic countries of the African continent”. According to a United Nations Development Report, food security has improved in Ghana but improvements still need to be done to policy, technology, and infrastructure to ensure healthy agricultural production (Rademacher-Schulz & Mahama, 2012)

ADDITIONAL FACTORS IMPACTING FOOD SECURITY IN GHANA:

URBAN POPULATION AND LITERACY

Urban population has been increasing in the country since the year 1957, and at this point accounts for about half of the country’s total population. This potentially reduces the number of people in the rural areas handling agricultural practices (Brown and Crawford 2008). However, there may be an increase in agricultural practices in the periurban areas in order to meet the demands of food for the urban populations-especially vegetables. The share of revenue earned from agricultural practices in the country is further proof of the nation’s dependence on agricultural products. The nation is also vulnerable to economic shocks that are beyond its income levels. Some social factors that are important in surviving economic shocks include: level of education, concentration of workforces in less dynamic sectors of the economy, and literacy levels.

Literacy has the potential force of being able to decrease the vulnerability of the population from economic shocks by improving accessibility to other income sources other than from agricultural practices. Ghana has emerged as one of the nations hit by changes in climate, and has become prominent due to the climatic variability by virtue that it is located in the regional tropics (De Pinto et. al 2013). Ghanaian economy is vulnerable to change in climate since it is highly dependent on climatic-sensitive elements including forestry, agriculture, and hydropower. Agriculture plays a role whenever climate change is notable in Ghana as a major emitter of GHG, as well as offers mitigation opportunities through carbon sequestration. Adverse impacts on agricultural activities in Ghana have continuously become pronounced. This has been important to the middle 21st century in which agriculture revenue in the national GDP was announced to have declined (Dasgupta and Baschieri 2010). Cocoa projections have also had huge socio-economic implications since the crop is a major contributor to the country’s national income and farmers’ livelihoods. Damages notable in the nation’s coastal regions are in form of floods, land losses, and aspects of forced migrations that has been estimated at $4.8 million every year by the year 2020 and is likely to increase to $5.7 million every year by 2030 (Brown and Crawford 2008). Migration of people to urban areas has led to the country’s vulnerability to many factors that contribute to its

loss of agricultural productivity. This is an added injury on agriculture despite the fact that the nation is still vulnerable to climate changes. Urban areas suffer from poor water supplies and sanitation, difficulties in public health facilities, energy, housing, and transportation. Climate changes in Ghana reduce productivity in agricultural sector. Incomes from agriculture, along with the nation’s stability, suffer from increased levels of food insecurity (Brown and Crawford 2008)

CHANGES IN GHANA TRANSPORT

Road transport is an important facility in Ghana, especially in the agricultural sector due to its use in transportation of agricultural produce. Transportation is one of the key elements affected by climate change in Ghana and has contributed greatly towards loss of agricultural production in the country. The extent of effects of climate change on transportation in the country is influenced by changes in the environment that holds the infrastructure (Dasgupta and Baschieri 2010). For instance, increased levels of precipitation affect the levels of moisture in the nation’s soils and the hydrostatic buildup by the retaining walls as well as abutments altogether with the sub grading of pavement stability. Moreover, runoff from the increasing levels of precipitation influence stream flows altogether with sediment delivery in most locations in the nation (Assan, Caminade and Obeng 2009). This has potentially devastating effects on foundations of the bridges in Ghana. In addition, projected increase in temperatures in the nation affects road transport. Times of extreme heat increase and wildfires threatens the surrounding communities and infrastructure. Long periods of increased heat compromise integrity of the pavement, also leading to thermal expansion at bridge junctions (De Pinto et. al 2013). This affects bridge operations, increasing maintenance costs. Therefore, affecting road transport adversely affects agricultural production and distribution in Ghana.

WATER RESOURCE IMPLICATION OF GHANA

Climate changes have also adversely affected water resources that negatively impact agricultural farming in Ghana. Water availability in Lake Volta is threatened as climate change leads to varied levels of unpredictable precipitation, and is partnered with frequent droughts. Moreover, Akosombo dam offers 70% of the nation’s energy requirements and only provides 30% during periods of low levels of water (Gyampoh et. al 2008). This poses huge implications for both industrialized and private sectors of the economy. Most importantly, water used for both domestic and plant irrigations becomes scarce from the combined impacts of declined rainfall, reduced levels of groundwater and drying stream flows from poor water retention capacities by the country’s soils. Ghana’s energy is also necessary in the agricultural sector since it is used in food processing and land practices (Dasgupta and Baschieri 2010). This has been caused

by the influences of variable rainfall in the country used for hydropower production. For instance, drought experienced between 1980 and 1983 affected export earnings. This was because most crops were lost and led to sufferings by large-scale farmers; this event called forward the country’s continuous dependence on hydropower (Kurukulasuriya et.al. 2006). In other words, agriculture in Ghana is highly dependent on energy that is affected by climate changes. These changes in climate most likely suggest agricultural production will be impacted negatively through reduced energy resources.

GENDER AND SUBSISTENCE FARMING

Glazebrook uses the approach of interviews and conducting focus groups with Ghanaian women farmers in the Northwest region to document evidence of climate change’s effect on food security and thus poverty. These farmers have no access to irrigation technology and thus rely explicitly on rainfall to water their crop; this results in only one growing season in Northeast Ghana. The extreme flooding that occurred in 2007 hindered and/or destroyed the yearly crop of every individual participating in this study. The participants also reported diminishing yields, drier conditions, and poorer soil quality within even the last five years. Because of limited resources and output, these farmers do not contribute a measurable percentage of the 38% agricultural contribution to the GDP of Ghana. But these women head of household (HH) farmers provide to the GDP in other ways. These subsistence farmers provide food for a range of 6-17 dependents. Along with this, there is a cultural tendency for the farmers’ children to return home from working in cities every week to be taken care of and fed. This is an indirect way that these farmers are supporting the economic productivity of Ghana. Food insecurity for female HH subsistence farmers and their families in Ghana will only worsen with increased occurrence of extreme weather events and a changing unpredictable climate (Glazebrook, T. 2011).

CONCEPTUAL MODEL:

RESEARCH CREDIBILITY:

Each of our sources were credible through scholarly peer review or reference to peer reviewed articles. Most used climate models and weather records, while several also used participatory research methods. There is uncertainty associated with all climate change science because of the variability of future emission scenarios, and how the environment will ultimately respond. The uncertainties of the IPCC report are based on the results and variations of climate models paired with expert judgment. There is sometimes lack of data, and the inability to properly model future events can result. There is also uncertainty involving situations we have not yet experienced (not strong past observations), and can only predict. Climate modeling in the IPCC is done at a global scale, and therefore generalizes regions where climate may vary from village to village. With this generalization it is hard to base Ghanaian climate studies strictly on the IPCC. Often analysis of past weather and climate reports were used in the studies, and many references to Ghanaian governmental environment agencies were made. Another organization that was referenced by a majority of the articles was the United

Nations Food and Agriculture Organization. The scholarly articles used in this paper are based on some the most sound climate science available, and draw heavily on accredited national and international organizations’ research.

The use of participatory research was an area of study new to our analysis of climate change. “Where the Rain Falls” project Case Study: Ghana was a source that used this method and related exactly to the topic of food security in Ghana. It was written by two authors, the first one, Christina Rademacher-Schulz has her PhD in Social and Cultural Anthropology and works at United Nations University where one of her regions of expertise is West Africa and Ghana. United Nations University is also where the report was published. The second author, Edward Salifu Mahama, is affiliated with University of Development Studies in Ghana, and has written books and published articles on development in Ghana. This report was published fairly recently in November 2012, most of the information is still applicable. This source also used sources that were included in this overall report, including the article by Brown and Crawford, as well as the IPCC report. Since this report was also a case study, it focused on the Nadowli District in the Upper West Region of Ghana. By using household surveys, Participatory Research Approaches, and expert interviews, the people who live in this area provided primary evidence for climate changes impact on food security. Some of the uncertainties related to this type of research is the limitations that were presented at the time the research was being done. For instance, the surveys were taken in the beginning of the harvest period, so both men and women were distracted and couldn’t focus their full attention on the questions. Overall, the responses from the surveys matched the scientific data for the region (Rademacher-Schulz & Mahama, 2012). The sources used in this paper covered a variety of topics relating to climate change impacts on food security in Ghana, and each was credible despite their varying research approaches.

CONCLUSION:

In conclusion, Ghana is dependent on agriculture for its economic growth. On the other hand, the nation is prone to climate changes that adversely affect its agricultural production. Climate changes create water as well as heat stress, an outbreak of both diseases and pests, leading to a loss of productivity in lands since the ecosystems deteriorate. Ghanaian economy is vulnerable to change in climate as well since it is highly dependent on climatic-sensitive elements, including forestry, agriculture, and hydropower. Climate changes have also adversely affected water resources in the country that has in return negatively impacted agricultural farming. Damages notable in the nation’s coastal regions are in the form of floods, land losses, and aspects of forced migrations. This calls for the nation’s mitigation and control measures that will enable it to face any shocks brought by climate changes.

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