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Climate Change in Los Angeles County: Grid Vulnerability to Extreme Heat 13 September 2018 University of California Los Angeles Arizona State University PI: Dr. Stephanie Pincetl (UCLA) Grant No. CEC EPC-15-007

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Page 1: Climate Change in Los Angeles County: Grid Vulnerability ...€¦ · Final report Figure 12. ... load factors deratedfor composite worst-case 2060 heat waves. California 4thClimate

ClimateChangeinLosAngelesCounty:GridVulnerabilitytoExtremeHeat

13September2018

UniversityofCaliforniaLosAngeles

ArizonaStateUniversity

PI:Dr.StephaniePincetl (UCLA)GrantNo.CECEPC-15-007

Page 2: Climate Change in Los Angeles County: Grid Vulnerability ...€¦ · Final report Figure 12. ... load factors deratedfor composite worst-case 2060 heat waves. California 4thClimate

2California4th ClimateAssessment ClimateChangeinLosAngelesCounty:13September2018 GridVulnerabilitytoExtremeHeat

ProjectTeamSTEPHANIEPINCETL[PI]ProfessorinResidenceInstituteoftheEnvironment&SustainabilityUniversityofCalifornia,LosAngeles

ALEXHALLProfessorAtmosphericandOceanicSciencesUniversityofCalifornia,LosAngeles

ERICFOURNIERResearchDirectorCaliforniaCenterforSustainableCommunities,IoESUniversityofCalifornia,LosAngeles

KATHARINEREICHAssociateDirectorUCLACenterforClimateScience,IoESUniversityofCalifornia,LosAngeles

MIKHAILCHESTERAssociateProfessorCivil,Environmental,&SustainableEngineeringArizonaStateUniversity

DANIELBURILLODoctoralStudentCivil,Environmental,&SustainableEngineeringArizonaStateUniversity

Page 3: Climate Change in Los Angeles County: Grid Vulnerability ...€¦ · Final report Figure 12. ... load factors deratedfor composite worst-case 2060 heat waves. California 4thClimate

3California4th ClimateAssessment ClimateChangeinLosAngelesCounty:13September2018 GridVulnerabilitytoExtremeHeat

Page 4: Climate Change in Los Angeles County: Grid Vulnerability ...€¦ · Final report Figure 12. ... load factors deratedfor composite worst-case 2060 heat waves. California 4thClimate

4California4th ClimateAssessment ClimateChangeinLosAngelesCounty:13September2018 GridVulnerabilitytoExtremeHeat

LocalTemperature

Change

ElectricityDemandChanges

ElectricitySupply

Infrastructure

HowandwheremightrisingtemperaturescreatebottlenecksintheLosAngelesgrid?

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5California4th ClimateAssessment ClimateChangeinLosAngelesCounty:13September2018 GridVulnerabilitytoExtremeHeat

TemperatureChange

Page 6: Climate Change in Los Angeles County: Grid Vulnerability ...€¦ · Final report Figure 12. ... load factors deratedfor composite worst-case 2060 heat waves. California 4thClimate

6California4th ClimateAssessment ClimateChangeinLosAngelesCounty:13September2018 GridVulnerabilitytoExtremeHeat

Historicaltemperatures(1981-2000)

Page 7: Climate Change in Los Angeles County: Grid Vulnerability ...€¦ · Final report Figure 12. ... load factors deratedfor composite worst-case 2060 heat waves. California 4thClimate

7California4th ClimateAssessment ClimateChangeinLosAngelesCounty:13September2018 GridVulnerabilitytoExtremeHeat

2040-2060(RCP 4.5)

2040-2060(RCP 8.5)

FutureScenarios

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8California4th ClimateAssessment ClimateChangeinLosAngelesCounty:13September2018 GridVulnerabilitytoExtremeHeat

DemandChange

Page 9: Climate Change in Los Angeles County: Grid Vulnerability ...€¦ · Final report Figure 12. ... load factors deratedfor composite worst-case 2060 heat waves. California 4thClimate

9California4th ClimateAssessment ClimateChangeinLosAngelesCounty:13September2018 GridVulnerabilitytoExtremeHeat

Page 10: Climate Change in Los Angeles County: Grid Vulnerability ...€¦ · Final report Figure 12. ... load factors deratedfor composite worst-case 2060 heat waves. California 4thClimate

10California4th ClimateAssessment ClimateChangeinLosAngelesCounty:13September2018 GridVulnerabilitytoExtremeHeat

BuildingEnergyModeling

BuildingTurnover

PopulationChange

ACSaturation&Turnover

ApplianceEfficiency

Page 11: Climate Change in Los Angeles County: Grid Vulnerability ...€¦ · Final report Figure 12. ... load factors deratedfor composite worst-case 2060 heat waves. California 4thClimate

11California4th ClimateAssessment ClimateChangeinLosAngelesCounty:13September2018 GridVulnerabilitytoExtremeHeat

FinalreportFigure12.Compositepeakdemandprojectionsforbaseandfutureperiodhighandlowscenarios.

Page 12: Climate Change in Los Angeles County: Grid Vulnerability ...€¦ · Final report Figure 12. ... load factors deratedfor composite worst-case 2060 heat waves. California 4thClimate

12California4th ClimateAssessment ClimateChangeinLosAngelesCounty:13September2018 GridVulnerabilitytoExtremeHeat

FinalreportFigure12.Compositepercentchangeprojectionsforbaseandfutureperiodhighandlowscenarios.

Page 13: Climate Change in Los Angeles County: Grid Vulnerability ...€¦ · Final report Figure 12. ... load factors deratedfor composite worst-case 2060 heat waves. California 4thClimate

13California4th ClimateAssessment ClimateChangeinLosAngelesCounty:13September2018 GridVulnerabilitytoExtremeHeat

Infrastructure&Supply

Page 14: Climate Change in Los Angeles County: Grid Vulnerability ...€¦ · Final report Figure 12. ... load factors deratedfor composite worst-case 2060 heat waves. California 4thClimate

14California4th ClimateAssessment ClimateChangeinLosAngelesCounty:13September2018 GridVulnerabilitytoExtremeHeat

Page 15: Climate Change in Los Angeles County: Grid Vulnerability ...€¦ · Final report Figure 12. ... load factors deratedfor composite worst-case 2060 heat waves. California 4thClimate

15California4th ClimateAssessment ClimateChangeinLosAngelesCounty:13September2018 GridVulnerabilitytoExtremeHeat

DeliveryInfrastructure

Substations

TransmissionLines

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16California4th ClimateAssessment ClimateChangeinLosAngelesCounty:13September2018 GridVulnerabilitytoExtremeHeat

Generation

FinalreportFigure23.Mapofworst-caselossesinplantcapacityforcompositetemperaturesin2060RCP8.5.

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17California4th ClimateAssessment ClimateChangeinLosAngelesCounty:13September2018 GridVulnerabilitytoExtremeHeat

Substations

FinalreportFigure25.Mapofworst-caselossesofsubstationcapacityforcompositetemperaturesin2060RCP8.5.

Page 18: Climate Change in Los Angeles County: Grid Vulnerability ...€¦ · Final report Figure 12. ... load factors deratedfor composite worst-case 2060 heat waves. California 4thClimate

18California4th ClimateAssessment ClimateChangeinLosAngelesCounty:13September2018 GridVulnerabilitytoExtremeHeat

SubstationRisk

FinalreportFigure32.Mapsofsubstationrisksin2060.Futuresubstationloadfactorsderated forcompositeworst-case2060heatwaves.

Page 19: Climate Change in Los Angeles County: Grid Vulnerability ...€¦ · Final report Figure 12. ... load factors deratedfor composite worst-case 2060 heat waves. California 4thClimate

19California4th ClimateAssessment ClimateChangeinLosAngelesCounty:13September2018 GridVulnerabilitytoExtremeHeat

Vulnerability

FinalreportFigure36.Mapofworst-casepercentderating inlinesandsubstationsfromhistoricalheatwavesoverlaidwithpresentsubstationloadfactors.

Page 20: Climate Change in Los Angeles County: Grid Vulnerability ...€¦ · Final report Figure 12. ... load factors deratedfor composite worst-case 2060 heat waves. California 4thClimate

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