climate change: its danger for our production and why it escapes our prediction
TRANSCRIPT
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Prof. Kees Stigter, Agromet Vision[Netherlands, Indonesia, Africa]
FISIP/RCCC (UI) Depok, 21 May 2015
Climate Change:Its danger
for our production and why it escapes
our prediction
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I am making use of experiencecollected together withProf. Yunita T. Winarto,
FISIP, UI, Depok,her students and our groups
of farmers in Indramayu.
From that perspective this is a joint presentation.
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I am a visiting professorin the Universitas Indonesia (UI)
Research Team on Response Farming to Climate Change,
Cluster for Environmental Anthropology
Center for Anthropological Studies
FISIP, UI 3
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I am also an affiliated professor
at the Agrometeorology Group,Department of Soil, Crop and
Climate Sciences,University of the Free State,Bloemfontein, South Africa.
Under this nominationI give Roving Seminars
in other African countries. 4
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For a start
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Our planet earth has a unique but complicated climate
that presently is changing due to the influence that our (mankind’s)
activities appear to have on the composition of its atmosphere.
It is called anthropogenic (man made) climate change. 6
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The world’s agricultural systems face an uphill struggle in feeding a projected
nine to ten billion people by 2050.
Climate change introduces a significant hurdle in this struggle
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There is general and widely held scientific consensus
that the observed trends in atmospheric & ocean temperature,
sea ice, glaciers as well as climate extremes,
during the last hundred years, cannot be explained solely
by natural climate processes and so reflect human influences. 8
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The argument that what we experience could be
natural climate changecan also be refuted by the fact
that present understanding of cyclic climatology of the past
points to a cooling planet
without the presence of mankind. 9
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On the simplest level, the weather is
what is happening in the atmosphere at any given time.
The climate, in a narrow sense, can be considered
as the “average weather”. 10
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In a more scientifically accurate way, it can be defined as:
“the statistical description
in terms of the mean and variability
of relevant quantities over a period of time”.
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One may argue that “global warming” is like “ageing”:
You can reduce the consequences but it will continue to happen.
Stopping it is impossible,so adaptation is necessary.
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The issues are:
(i) global warming,
(ii) increasing climate variability,
(iii) more (and possibly more severe)
meteorological and climatological extreme events. 13
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FACTS
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Is global warming real?
From worldwide observationsWMO (Geneva) concluded
a long time ago that our planet is warming up.
This has to be considered a fact. 15
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The warming up is not the same everywhere because
(i) incoming solar radiation is highest in the tropics
(ii) oceans (and to some extent other large water bodies)
do influence what happens in the lower atmosphere 16
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Warming means that the atmosphere
is gaining energy in the form of heat.
From where?
The main source of energy is the solar radiation.
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IPCC (the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)
has been stressing,with increasing confidence
over the years, that the cause of this heat gain
is an increase of greenhouse gases
in our atmosphere. 18
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Processes
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Our atmosphere gets its energy from two sources:
(i) It is warmed from below by solar energy absorbed
by the earth surface during the day.
This heat gets distributed throughout
the boundary layer.
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We should here already indicate the difference between
land and water surfaces.
On land, in daytime, a tiny surface layer becomes much warmer,
with the very surface becoming hottest, depending mainly
on water content. 21
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In water the absorption is over a certain depth, decreasing with depth.
The water surface therefore does not become very warm from
direct absorption, ocean currents play
a more important role here.
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We were talking of how the atmosphere gains heat.
(ii) Its gases absorbthe longwave radiation
sent from the earth surface throughout day and night.
This prevents the land surface from overheating. 23
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But indeed most additional heat created is
absorbed by the oceans.
The large heat capacity of water
prevents the oceans from overheating.
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We know this radiation lossfrom a cooling surface
(and the cooling air due to this)in nights without a cloud cover.
When there are clouds, they send roughly as much longwave radiation
back to the earth surface as they receive from that surface, and no or appreciably
less cooling occurs. 25
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So we must conclude that our planet is actually
heating up mainlybecause of this absorption
of radiative heatby the greenhouse gases
in the atmosphere.
Increasing greenhouse gases mean additional heating. 26
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INTERLUDE
ON SOME DATA
AND WHAT INFLUENCES THEM.
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Somewhere near 1800 the carbon dioxide
concentration was something as 280 ppm,
while we have recently reached 400 ppm.
It is presently increasing exponentially.
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From 1960 till 2010 the temperature increase
is estimated to have been less than a degree Celsius
(0.7 ºC, 0.85 ºC since 1880).
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But the projection for the next 50 years is in the order of one degree
Celsius, with the emissions and
atmospheric contents kept within the range of the IPCC scenarios.30
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Even if the concentrations of all greenhouse gases
and aerosols were kept constant
at year 2000 levels, a further warming of about 0.1°C per
decade [so 0.5º C in fifty years]
would be expected.
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It is generally accepted that,
if for this century the temperature increase
can be limited to 2 ºC,the damages will remain much more limited than when the scenarios give
a 4 ºC increase.32
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End of the interlude
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What do such figures mean in practice today?
Here is an example of Arabica coffee grown on the slopes
of the Kilimanjaro, Tanzania.
Coffee is the world's most valuable tropical export crop. 34
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Recent studies predict severe climate change impacts on Coffea arabica (C. arabica)
production.
However, quantitative production figures are necessary
to provide coffee stakeholders and policy makers
with evidence to justify immediate action. 35
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Using data from the northern Tanzanian highlands,
it was demonstrated that increasing night time (Tmin) temperature was
the most significant climatic variable responsible for diminishing
C. arabica yields between 1961-2012.
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The minimum temperature rose in that half century
by between 1 and 1.5 °C.The projection for the next 35 years
for that region is 1.5 °C.
With the minimum temperature at 14 °C,
the yields were about 500 kg beans per hectare. 37
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A non-linear (sigmoid) model constructed from data
from local areas with different minimum temperatures
gave the following results:
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With the night minimum rising to 15 °C, the yields would become
about 450 kg ha-1.
With a night minimum temperature at 16°C this decreases
to about 300 kgha-1.39
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While for 17°C this becomes about 100 kgha-1.
This means a prediction of average coffee production
diminishing to 145 kgha-1 by 2060 in those areas of Tanzania.
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In the case of Arabica coffee, a solution could be
to go to higher, still colder grounds,
although this disrupts living conditions
and biodiversity patterns.
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The same has been observedwith apples in India.
The classical varieties must go higher up,
while new more heat tolerant varieties are sought
to replace themat the lower heights.
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But if we think about the lowland tropics,
there is no way out apart from crop diversification
and also here finding more heat tolerant varieties.
But that is a lot more difficult.
The following data show how bad the situation is. 43
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Rice
Data obtained from a CGIAR umbrella study, the same as used for maize below.
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Temperatures beyond critical thresholds not only reduce
the growth duration of the rice crop,
they also increase spikelet sterility, reduce grain-filling duration,
and enhance respiratory losses, resulting in lower yield
and lower-quality rice grain. 45
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Rice is relatively more tolerant to high temperatures
during the vegetative phase,
but highly susceptible during the reproductive phase,
particularly at the flowering stage.
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Unlike other abiotic stresses, heat stresses occurring
either during the day or the night
have differential impacts on rice growth and production.
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High night-time temperatures have been shown to have
a greater negative effect on rice yields,
with a 1 °C increase above critical temperature (>24 °C)
leading to 10% reduction in both grain yield and biomass.
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High day-time temperatures in some tropical and subtropical
rice growing regions are already close to the optimum levels.
An increase in intensity and frequency of heat waves coinciding
with sensitive reproductive stages can result in serious damage
to rice production. 49
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Here is one more example
Maize
The results are from something as 20.000 trials at 123 stations all over
the worldof CIMMYT (Columbia).
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§ Increased temperature significantly effects
maize yield (P < 0.01).
§ Possible gains in yield with warming
at relatively cool sites.51
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§ Significant yield losses at sites where temperatures commonly
exceed 30°C(corresponding to areas
where the growing season average temperatures are >23°C or
average maximum temperatures are >28°C).
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§ Daytime warming is more harmful to yield than night-time warming.
§ Drought increases yield susceptibility to warming
even at cooler sites.
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§ Under ‘optimal’ conditions yield losses occur over ca. 65% of the harvested area of maize.
§ Under ‘drought stress’ yield losses occur at all sites,
with a 1°C warming resulting in at least a 20% loss of yield
over more than 75% of the harvested area. 54
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The climate predictions discussed are long term ones,
of which knowing the trends is an important issue for
adaptation to the consequences of climate change,
food policies, crop planning, variety breeding and screening,
as well as farming system adaptations and modifications. .55
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This knowledge is of course also important for extension policies and all other planning related to agriculture that has to be made
to face climate change.
For farmers these are important issues that can be discussed at “Science Field Shops” for
their long term decision making. 56
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For forestry, the climate change-induced
modifications of frequency and intensity of forest wildfires,
of outbreaks of insects and pathogens, and of extreme events
such as high winds and dry spells, may be more important than the
direct impact of higher temperaturesand elevated CO2. 57
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Global warming is likely to encourage northern expansion
of southern insects, while longer growing seasons
are likely to allow more insect generations in a given season.
Forests that are moisture stressed are often more susceptible to attacks by insects.58
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Of equal importance are the considerations of taking away or adding “trees outside forests”.
Integrating all existing and new landscape ecosystems into a complex climate adaptation-oriented resilience approach appears highly promising,
but also extremely demanding. 59
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The ocean affects the rate of climate change and is in turn
affected by it as well.
Global warming could alter inputs of salt water, fresh water, oxygen,
nutrients and pollutants with potentially large consequences for marine ecosystems and species.
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Changes in currents would also influence
the recruitment of organisms in coastal waters
and offshore waters.
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It has for example been reported that most of the decline
in the world’s marine fishery landings in 1998 could be attributed to changes
in the Southeast Pacific, which was severely affected
by El Niño.62
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What we further need to know
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The main source of this increase
of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide
appears to beour activities on this planet:e.g. electricity generation
from coal, cement production and driving cars are presently
the main culprits.64
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As to carbon dioxide, measurements show that it has increased
from the start of the industrial revolution,
but that changes in land use have also played an important role by large scale cutting of
vegetation, including trees. 65
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This is also why Indonesia has become a large
contributor, by felling trees (sinks of carbon dioxide)
in large scale (mostly illegal) logging,
often planting palm oil trees instead, with appreciably less
carbon dioxide absorption per hectare.
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It is interesting to note that since the very end of the previous century,
the rate of global warming has reduced
by at least half till something as one third
of the rate in the last 50 years
of that previous century.
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This has been baptized“the hiatus”, a lack of
continuity in the up going trend of global temperature.
So climate change rates reduce.
Is this going to change our thinking?
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Our lack of knowledge and understanding is best illustrated with the
discussion on this present global warming “hiatus”.
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Some deny its very existence
but accurate world wide measurements and
comparisons show that this “hiatus”,
is there, since the late 90s.
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There have already been four quantitative(!) reasonings of
full fledged explanations:
(i) more volcanic particles in the atmosphere;
(ii) extremely strong large scale western winds
in the Pacific;
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(iii) much warmer water being transported to deeper
layers of the ocean;
(iv) indeed being in a down going phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and/or
another of such oscillations as surface induced atmospheric
variations/imbalances. 72
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It is likely that any of these four explanations
may actually be involved,if not more processes.
But we have no clueabout the ratios of their
contributions.73
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It is presently most likely that the cause of this hiatus is indeed
more warmer water going to deeper layers, resulting in a (temporarily?) relatively cooler
ocean surface.
This also shows how important oceanic surface temperatures
are for determination of our climate.
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Here we also have one of the weakest rings in the chain of
climate predictions.
We know so much less about how the sea surface
temperatures are determined by currents and deep waves than we understand on the
atmospheric resultants.75
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Indeed, we have for decades sent radiosondes with balloons
into the atmosphere, but only very recently have buoys
been placed in the Pacific Ocean, particularly in those parts used for climate prediction purposes.
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But if we look at the predictions of the 2014/2015 weak El-Niño (I will explain),
it appears that the atmosphere sometimes does
not want to behave the way we know it.
That makes the little that is predictable suddenly
also unpredictable.77
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Old players enter the scene
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The El-Niño is a disturbance of “normal” climatological
conditions for many thousands of years.
It has nothing to do (or had nothing to do) with climate change.
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Now scientists have learned that certain Sea Surface Temperature (SST)
distributions in the Pacific Ocean correspond with El-Niño phenomena,
which gives higher SSTs in these areas.
But El-Niño (meaning the “Christmas child”) was known to the fishermen of Peru for the cold water upwelling
occurring before their cost and giving above normal catches of fish
around Christmas in some years.80
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So it are unpredictable ocean currents and deep waves,
that are not understood in sufficient detail, that create the
surface signals for El-Niño’s to occur.
They are very important in short term climate predictions
(one to three months).81
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The combined forces of ENSO and global warming are likely to have dramatic,
and currently largely unforeseen,
effects on agricultural production
and food security. 82
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Agricultural production in for example quite some
Sub-Saharan countries is strongly influenced by
the annual cycle of precipitation and year-to-year variations
in that annual cycle caused by the
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dynamics.
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The ENSO actually can swing beyond the “normal” state to
a state opposite that of El Niño, with the trade winds amplified
and the eastern Pacific colder than normal.
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This phenomenon is often referred to as La Niña.
In a La Niña year, or when a La Niña period occurs,
many Asian regions, such as Indonesia,
that are inclined toward drought during an El Niño,
are instead prone to more rain. 85
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Both El Niños and La Niñas vary in intensity from weak to strong. The intervals at which El Niños return are not exactly regular,
but have historically varied from two to seven/eight years.
Now, an El Niño can subside
into a “normal” pattern. 86
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At other times it gives way to a La Niña.
In many ways, the ENSO cold phase
is simply the opposite of the warm phase,
but without any symmetryin durations or
severity/impacts. 87
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This often holds true also
for the climate impacts of the two.
El Niño, or warm phase, tends to bring drought to countries like Indonesia and Australia, at the west end of the Pacific.
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The latter influences in Africa
are so called tele-connections,meaning that we don’t know
how or why!
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But the strong influence of La Niña
at the west end of the Pacific, with abundant rainfall and frequent floods,
among others in Indonesia, does not have its parallel
in West Africa.
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Now, it appears that the frequency of these phenomena, and how they follow each other, has changed in recent times!
However, we are not able to simulate these actual changes with the models that summarize
our understanding, which at this moment
is still very insufficient. 91
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As a consequence of the above,simple growing season
rainfall scenarios are very difficult
to derive from existing raw or simplified (outlook fora!)
climate predictions.
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93
Vulnerable communities, across the world,
are already feeling the effects of a changing climate.
These communities are urgently in need of assistance
aimed at building resilience to their new situations.
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94
They are also in need of undertaking climate change
adaptation efforts as a matter of survival and
in order to maintain livelihoods.
In short: they are in need of what we want to call an urgent
“agrarian/rural response to climate change”.
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One of the major problems in guiding rural change,
in a rural response to climate change,
is the low formal level of education that
most farmers have and for which governments
have done very little to upgrade it. 95
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But we need improved climate literacy
among farmers and a better trained extension
that can guide farmers in further rainfall monitoring
and rainfall interpretation.
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But we also need further agro-ecosystem
observations, that, with the rainfall distribution,
seasonal scenarios and results from on-farm experiments
explain yields and yield differences.
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Since 2010, local farmers in Indramayu, West Java, Indonesia,
were stimulated to measure rainfall in their own plots, on a daily routine basis,
using homemade cylindrical rain gauges,
following routines that were proposed earlier.
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This has never been a goal in itself.
It should now serve other purposes
in a rural response to climate change.
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Climate change makes it even more necessary to do
such measurements properly and with high spatial measuring densities.
Doing this with an organized group of well instructed farmers in a region
as part of an extension approach, has the advantages that:
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• each participating farmer can create a record over the years
in a “climate logbook”;
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• derivatives as monthly, seasonal and annual totals,
maxima and minima, can be easily obtained, graphically compared
and understood as consequences of climate realities.
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• higher than usual measurement densities can be obtained;
and
measurements can be compared and discussed in (preferably)
monthly meetings;103
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• measurements can be part of a larger extension routine in which other data
are collected as well;
and
measurements can serve as an input to understanding yield differences
between areas, farmers, seasons and years;
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• measurements can form a basis for attempts of adaptation to climate change,
particularly in relation to increasing climate (including rainfall) variability
and the occurrence of more (and sometimes more severe)
meteorological and climatological extreme events
(including droughts, heavy rains and floods).
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This is the way a group of farmers, organized in the
Indramayu Rainfall Observers Club (IROC),
developed a new attitude towards climate realities
in Indramayu region, for the past five years.
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This was already preceded by more than two years
of comparable trials in Gunung Kidul, Yogyakarta,
by a team of Prof. Yunita, myself and groups of her students,
on which we published a book in 2011.
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This is all part of a new extension approach
made necessary because the Indonesian extension systems
have not or inadequately been prepared
for the consequences of a changing climate.
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For the same reasons we are now
extending this to the island of Lombok,
West Nusa Tenggara.
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In addition to their daily rainfall measurements, these rice farmers
do make and write down agro-ecosystem observations regarding sowing methods,
sowing/planting dates, crop varieties, crop stages and development,
soil properties and soil moisture, including irrigation situations
where applicable. 110
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They also include pests and diseases and their developments
(including measures they can take in initial stages),
the results of fertilizer use and pesticide use.
The observations made are noted down on fact sheets that,
with the “climate logbook”, form the historical farm plot records.111
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After some time we started to use these observations to predict yields
and after harvesting we discussed whether yield and yield differences
could be understoodfrom these observations and the
monthly seasonal rainfall scenarios that I deliver, as local climate
predictions, from raw NOAA and IRA global/regional ENSO ones. 112
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Such “scenarios” have this way been made
part of climate change adaptation attempts
on the islands of Java and Lombok.
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Two problems haunt seasonal rainfall scenarios for
farmers to increase their resilience:
(i) skill of predictions and
(ii) terminology chosen
for these monthly updated seasonal rainfall predictions. 114
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In February 2015, a questionnaire was used to interview 42 farmers that
received the monthly seasonal scenario regularly for six months or more,
and 42 farmers in the same villages that did not receive these scenarios
as a control group. Of those receiving these scenarios,
more than half received them for more than two years and 85%
for more than a year. 115
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Of the target group of farmers, more than 93% received
the seasonal scenarios via SMS on their mobile telephone,
while for more than 81% this was the only way they received that information. Of the number of farmers receiving
the seasonal scenarios, 55% understood them regularly or better
but 42% understood them only sometimes. 116
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This points to the necessity to improve the scenario messages as to the understanding required.
It could be observed that those receiving the scenarios
for at least two years had a much higher regular or better
understanding than the others. 117
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Difficulties were mainly of two kinds:
(i) scientific terminology and (ii) the use of “below normal, normal and above normal” qualifications.
Our farmer facilitators had the role of continuing to explain this, but that has apparently been
insufficiently successful. 118
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Of those farmers receiving the scenarios, 55% used them regularly or better but 45% only sometimes or never
in their decision making. The main reasons for not using
the scenarios are that others make the farming decisions
(40% of those providing a reason) or that rain is not their main
source of water (26% of those providing a reason). 119
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For only 6% the scenarios were not useful when followed.
Of those that used the scenarios, 84% was satisfied: regularly (16%),
often (28%) or always (41%). Only 16% was satisfied only sometimes.
Of the many positive reasons given for this satisfaction,
69% mentioned the high accuracy of the scenarios and the positive role they plaid in improving farmers’ anticipation.120
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It appeared thatfrom the control group
not receiving our scenarios, as well as from the main target group,
only less than 10% used (also) other scenarios,
such as from MoA and BMKG,in their decision making.
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The above stories revealhow we have started
to assist Indonesian farmers to initiate a rural response
to recognized climate change.
Scaling this up into an as wide as possible “farmer carried movement”
is the next stage we should aim at. 122
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The role of the government through proper in-service refreshing of extension and/or farmer trainers,
we have dealt with since 2008 in Roving Seminars at UGM & UI.
However, Indonesian Government Departments/Institutes,
Farmers and Scientists live in different worlds of their own.123