climate change - meteorologists in action c y lam hong kong observatory
TRANSCRIPT
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Climate Change- Meteorologists in Action
C Y Lam
Hong Kong Observatory
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Paris, 2 February 2007
• IPCC – The evidence for human-caused global warming is now “unequivocal”.
• Now accepted by most, taken for granted
• But, it has taken three decades to reach this position.
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(background figure after IPCC, 2007)
The 30-year Journey
330 ppm
380 ppm
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WMO & Meteorologists
• Rational approach: data & research
• Engagement: partners & stakeholders, impacts & responses
• Community level: attitude change, teach & preach
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1st WMO statement, 1976
• Carbon dioxide – 330 ppm
• Accumulation of carbon dioxide – potential impact on climate vs natural variability
• Food as key issue, other disruptions too
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1st World Climate Conference, 1979(WMO, UNEP, FAO UNESCO, WHO)
• “a gradual warming of the lower atmosphere appears plausible”
• “some effects …. detectable before the end of this century”
• Declaration: urgent actions to improve knowledge and to foresee & prevent potential man-made changes
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WMO World Climate Programme, 1979
• Data
• Applications
• Research
• Impacts on human activities
Multiple international partners
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Data• WMO Global Observing System – based on national
meteorological services
• WMO Global Atmospheric Watch – specialized network to measure atmospheric composition
• Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), 1992 – WMO, IOC-UNESCO,UNEP, ICSU
• 380 ppm, 0.74°C/100 years (IPCC, 2007)
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Research
• World Climate Research Programme, 1985
• WMO, ICSU, IOC-UNESCO
• Large scale projects, all climate components
• Underpins UNFCCC & IPCC assessments
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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change WMO & UNEP,1988
• Assessment reports based on published literature, covering:– state of climate– potential impact– policy options in response
• 1st report, 1990; 4th report 2007
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2nd World Climate Conference, 1990(WMO, UNEP, UNESCO, IOC, FAO, ICSU)
• Carbon dioxide 350 ppm
• After 1st IPCC Assessment Report
• Ministerial Declaration:– noted unprecedented rate of climate change
predicted by IPCC – association with greenhouse gases– call for negotiations →UNFCCC 1992– well-informed public
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(background figure after IPCC, 2007)
The Long Journey
+20ppm
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30 years after 1st WMO Statement
• IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007
– “warming of the climate system is unequivocal”
– “very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations”
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(background figure after IPCC, 2007)
The Long Journey
“unequivocal”after
+50 ppm
↑30-year
wait↓
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Current general acceptance of human-induced climate change
• It came about not by accident
• But by meteorologists
– sounding the alarm 30 years ago
– organizing observations & research
– engaging partners & stakeholders
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Reaching Out- Teach and Preach
• A well-informed public – the responsibility of meteorological services working at the “local” level
• Must be based on– Observations– Understanding of the phenomenon– Projections into the future
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Hong Kong Observatory
• Records since 1884
• Announced observed trends
• Also urbanization effects
• Projections for 21st century
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Relating to people
People don’t appreciate :
“3.5°C rise in temperature in 21st century”
“Temperature varies more than this in a day.
What is the problem?”
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“No winter by the end of the century”
“Less than one cold day per winter.”
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“cold winter no more”
Hong Kong, August 2004
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Reaching out to people
press conference radio &TV
openday
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The public & green groups
partnering withgreen groups
lectures for students
public lectures
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Road blocks
• Low public interest relative to economic and social issues
• Lack of sense of being “immediate” and “close”
• “Small city” psychology, but actually 0.1% of world population
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More teaching and preaching
• Information on trend, potential impacts, basic causes and what people can do
• A matter of attitude and life style
• Education package & school activities
• More partners
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Meteorologists – not purely scientists
• We sounded the alarm; now we should enable people to respond.
• Reach out, with clear message for people.
• Climate change is multi-disciplinary by nature; engage full spectrum of partners.
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(background figure after IPCC, 2007)
Another 30 years for action?
“unequivocal”after
+50 ppm
↑30-year
wait↓
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WMO & meteorologistswill act together with all
to stop the worlddrifting irreversibly into a state
unsuitable for human habitation.We cannot wait for
another 30 years.