climate change, migration and global economies

8/14/2019 Climate Change, Migration and Global Economies

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Clima te C han ge, Mig ration a nd Glo bal Ec onomies

Since the 1990s there has been a steady increase in the number of people that have

migrated and until now, these have been predominantly economic and conflict migrants,

escaping areas where economic depression has been unable (in their view) to support

sustainable employment opportunities to be able to support a family; or where people have

been forced to flee areas of great conflict, that in turn, are also areas of economic depression.

Map 1 (above) shows the general global picture of migration gains and losses as of 2008/09

and highlights the trend of migrants towards the developed economies.

The global economic recession of the first decade of the 21 st century has added to the number

of economic migrants and, as has been seen, there is a greater number of violent conflictsadding refugees to the number of displaced peoples and yet, these numbers are small in

comparison to the number of people that will migrate, as the global climate changes take

effect.

There can be few people who have not experienced climate change in some form or another,

although only a small percentage of the people have any real knowledge about these changes

or realise that it is happening. Many seem to be aware that temperatures will rise and for

some, these mean better and longer summers, in which to enjoy the seaside and other

outdoor activities. This view is short sighted and shows that governments should do more to

educate a general populace as to the extremes of climate change. Many also see only a very

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Map 1


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The Population:

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Many institutions are predicting that by the year 2040 the total population of the world will be

9.3 billion from a population in 2009 of 6.8 billion. It is not known how these institutes arrived

at the figure of only 9.3 billion, as using a combination of United Nations and CIA statistics,

the population in 2040 will be 9.984 billion and this uses the individual countrys population

expansion rates. Overall, the worlds population expansion rate is around 1.22% per annum

(range 3.69% to -0.85%) and using this rate alone gives a population of 9.7 billion.

Exp % 2009 2040

China 0.61% 1,338,612,968 1,606,532,434India 1.52% 1,166,079,217 1,833,480,636

Africa 2.15% 1,010,798,816 2,003,018,088

Clearly, the worlds finite food resources cannot support this number of people without vastly

expanding the land area put to agricultural production and part of this increase needs to

include large areas of grazing to allow for the increased demand in meat products, a part of

the demand comes from the oriental states, as their per capita wealth improves and they

demand a greater percentage of meat in their diet. Although the changes in global climate will

allow an increase in production of food throughout Canada and Russia and possible the

rainforest areas of Brazil and central Africa, this would involve environmental issues that may

not be found to be acceptable to western countries.Consensus on population totals at any given time in the future are not easily achieved, as

most that are producing these figures are using different prediction models, although it may

be possible to get nearer a general consensus by looking at the various prediction models.

With the general annual population rate in Europe at 0.11% (2009) it is assumed that the

European population will be stable, but this leaves aside the probable increase in migration to

Europe from Africa and Asia. As food, water and basic service supplies become more fragile,

more people will migrate and it to the developed countries where they will head to, whether

or not they would be welcomed. Central and southern Europe will see the majority of migrants

arriving in the area and European governments will have to respond.

Given that at one time, there will be mass migration in countries that will be most affected byfood and water shortages, there needs to be means by which these migrations can be better

predicted and thus common indicators are required. At first, there will be internal migration,

with communities moving to areas where food and water are more likely to be available and

the employment opportunity that would provide the necessary means to purchase food. This,

on its own will cause many problems to civil authorities to control and possibly with the

assistance of the military.

This inevitably will be followed by external migration and on the larger continents; this will be

extremely difficult to control and will be the cause of many conflicts, probably leading to local

wars. Africa, Central and South America, Europe and Central Asia will be most affected by

food related civil conflicts and influxes of migrants.It therefore comes down to land resources x population x agricultural production potential and

many parts of the world will be shown to have relatively high populations and low land

resources and agricultural production potential and thus, migration from these areas will be

high, as will probable high rates of death, due to food and water shortages and the world

unions will not be able to respond to these needs.

It therefore becomes important to be able to predict, using indicators,

As the map (below) shows, there are certain areas of the world (2009 shown) where there are

already millions of people that are undernourished and the change in global climate will

dramatically increase these problems.

twofer says

This table shows that by 2040, Indias

population will have exceeded that of China

due to a greater rate of population expansion

and that Africa will have exceeded both, withan annual expansion rate of 2.15%


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If food is thought to be a major restraint in being able to maintain a growing world population,

the potable water situation is worse than this and potable water may become more valuable

than fossil fuel oils and it may be that food and water shortages will cause major conflicts

between nations. Some countries are looking ahead to the potential of desalinating seawater

and using this in the potable water systems to replace rain or underground water sources. As

an example, Jordan is implementing a system by which it will pump seawater

The history of the Earth as a planet has gone through many cycles with species evolving and

dying, whether due to natural phenomenon or not and yet, other species have evolved to takethe place of those that have become extinct. Species may have evolved that have bred

themselves out of existence by being dependent on one or more sources of food or

environment and the primate species could be an example of this; by over breeding and

dependent on declining food resources. As an example Lake Victoria in the mid 1990s was

overrun by water hyacinth, clogging access to ports and denying the fishermen the ability to

provide food. A small South American weevil (of the Neochetina family) was introduced that

lived only on the water hyacinth plant and once established the weevil killed out most of the

water hyacinth plant population and thus, the weevil main food source. The consequence of

this being that the weevil was so successful in destroying its main food source, it destroyed

the weevils ability to survive in great numbers. The weevil still exists on Lake Victoria on a

small patch of water hyacinth where its numbers are maintained and the area of weed is also

stable. From this, it may be assumed that despite mans vast ability to survive, its food

resources are in decline and neither man nor plant species can survive until there is a natural

balancing of users against provisions.

However, it is often assumed that the planet needs man and nothing could be further from the

truth and it is man that, if it wishes to survive must allow the natural course of events to

unfold and this means survival of the fittest and back to the laws of the jungle, if there is any

jungle left. And of those that survive, it will be the rich western nations that will dominate the

remaining resources, leaving the poorest nations to survive as best they can.

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One of the greatest hurdles to overcome is the apathy of communities towards the effects of

global warming and the general opinion that those that have been giving the warnings are

tree huggers and are exaggerating the situation and the general public have become inured

to the greater urgency shown by the professionals. There is also the situation whereby too

many are intend on funding their daily needs and the immediate needs within their own

community, that global problems play no part in their daily thinking and that, they feel that

they have no useful role to play in addressing the needs of global warming. There is also a

general belief that it is up to governments to fix things, as surely, thats what they pay theirtaxes for.

Temperature changes:

Most scientific authorities that are predicting the general rise in temperature use 2000 as the

point from which they have estimated the amounts and these vary between 2.25 oC to 4.75oC

and any of these will have a serious effect on the ability to produce food.

That so many scientific authorities agree that climate change is about to affect every part of

the globe shows that serious consideration should be given to their predictions.

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However, not every scientific authority agrees

that the climate of the globe will change and

many state that the sun is cooling and thus,

the world will also cool.

Very few have been able to state how much of

any changes that may occur are natural

changes and would have occurred, regardless

of mans interference.Its true enough to say that during the first half

of the 20th century, few had the concept that

mans influence was having a detrimental

effect on the global climate and that during the

second half of the 20th century the warnings

were generally ignored.

There are those that believe that the testing of

nuclear bombs changed the equations and

very little is spoken about this and it can

probably be stated that the general populationhas been kept in the dark about some of the effects of mans interference and yet, the

general population has, to some extent, has happily ignored those that gave the initial

warnings.

For those in the international natural resources development profession that have practical

experience of working in the developing nations; change in climates have been seen to occur,

causing changes in food production with its effect on local communities and within the most

at risk communities, migration has been noted towards the urban areas and it is this that

must cause the greatest concern. However, it is not only the change in climate that has

affected local migration, as there are many other factors that have added to the drift of rural

populations to urban areas.Improved education has enhanced expectations in young people, who no longer want

to work on the land.

Improved social service provision in the urban areas has also drawn rural people town-

ward.

The development of mineral resource extraction has attracted many rural people

towards industrial centres in the hope of getting work.

The lack of rural development together with an increase in rural population birth rate

has driven many to seek opportunities in the larger towns and cities, putting at risk the

improvement in social service provision.

By Western standards the improvements in both education and social service provision havenot been seen to have had much affect and yet these very important improvements in

developing countries may also be the very reason why they will fail as more migrate to the

urban areas. Governments are unable to respond to the growing needs as are the churches

and development agencies and there may come a time when the number of migrants will

force the governments and agencies to abandon much of the social service provision, simply

because the number of migrants will overwhelm the abilities of provision.

South Africa has seen a vast number of migrants, including those escaping conflict in

Zimbabwe and over the last two years, we have seen the number of violent exchanges

between indigenous communities and migrants increase as unemployment grows, basic food

provision decreases, as does social services in water, health and education.

twofer says
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