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Climate Change Mitigation in China Challenges and Policies in the Process of
Industrialization and Urbanization
Jiahua Pan Institute for Urban & Environmental Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences [email protected]
UNU-WIDER Conference on Climate Change & Development Policy
28-29 Sept., 2012, Helsinki, Finland
Emissions trend
Challenges Urbanization
Industrialization
Opportunities
Mitigation policies
conclusions
content
CO2 emissions peaked, or to be peaked? US, EU, China and India compared
Source: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/.
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Mt CO2
China UK Brazil India Japan US
Emissions trends: GDP per capita and CO2 Emission per capita, BASIC and Major EU Countries
0123456789
101112131415
CO2 Em
ission per capita ( ton CO
2/person)
20.000 15.000 10.000 30.000 35.000
GDP per capita, $US
25.000 45.000 40.000 5.000 0
China UK Italy
Germany France India
Brazil South Africa
Data Source: 1.CO2 Emission data is from Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center(CDIAC) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory 2011,include emission from fossil fuel combustion and Cement process 。 2.GDP Data is from World Bank Database 2012,Price is 2010 dollar constant price。 3.Data of CO2 Emission from fossil fuel combustion from CDIAC and IEA are basically Consistent, Error is in 1%.
Post-industr. Late stage
Medium stage Early stage Pre-industr.
Challenges: industrialization in different parts of China at various stages
Industrial production (physical output for selected manufactured goods, 2009 and 2011) : -- world workshop for global market -- no more room for physical expansion
unit 2009 % world 2011
raw steel mt 568 46.6 684
steel mt 696 ~50 883
cement bt 1.63 >50 2.09
aluminum mt 12.85 35 17.68
copper mt 4.13 25 5.18
coal bt 3.05 45 3.52
Chemical f. mt 66.0 35 62.17
unit 2009 % world 2011
automobile m 13.79 25 18.41
computer m 182 60 320
Color TV m 98.99 48 122.31
refrigerator m 59.30 60 86.99
Air conditioner m 80.78 70 139.12
Mobile phone m 619.0 50 1,133.0
Chemical fiber m 27.3 57 33.9
Cotton fiber m 23.9 46 29.0
• End of 2011: urbanization rate: 51.3%, totaling 691m • Incomplete urbanization: 250 m rural migrants in
cities • 2030: urban. Rate: 70%; 300 million people • Rural: increase in income and living standard
Challenges: Urbanization
Consumer behaviour:
End of 2011: automobile fleet totals 105.8 million, 16.4% increase over the previous year. Private vehicles 78.7 million; households cars: 43.2 million, 25.5% more than 2010.
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Urban Population城镇(%)
Rural Population乡村(%)
Urban Population(10000)城镇(万人)
Rural Population(10000)乡村(万人)
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中China
India
单位:美元 current USD
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?page=1
Opportunities: increase in capabilities(1970-2010)
Demographic trend: peak and aging
census date conducted
Growth rate per yr
(%)
Family size (no.)
Urban. Rate (%)
% 0-14 yrs % 60 yrs & above
total population
(M)
6th 1st Nov 2010
0.57% 3.10 49.68% 16.60% 8.87% 1,371
5th 1st Nov 2000
1.07% 3.44 36.09% 22.89% 6.96% 1,295
4th Jul 1990 1.48% 3.96 26.23% 27.69% 5.57% 1,160
3rd 1st July 1982
2.10% 20.6% 1,032
2nd 30th June 1964
18.4% 40.4% 5.5% (60 yrs)
723
1st 30th June 1953
13.26% 574
Source: population census bulletin, various years
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Opportunities: Energy security, env quality Primary energy consumption (100 mtoe) for selected economies
2011 in China: total primary energy consumption 3.48 btce, 7.0% increase over 2010
2012-07-21: Jingshi Junction, Beijing
2012-06-23: Hezhou, Guangxi
Opportunities: Climate Security – urban resilience
Drought in
Shandong Province,
2011
Mitigation policies: target setting & implementation 2020 CO2 reduction targets
Per unit GDP reduction of CO2 by 40%—45%, as compared to 2005 level Share of non-fossil fuel energy over primary energy consumption: 15%; Increase in forested area by 40 m ha as compared to 2005 level; timber
volume increase by 1.3 billion cubic meters, as compared to 2005 level 12th five year (2011-2015) plan mandatory targets
Cut of Conventional environmental pollutants Chemical oxygen demand and SO2 by 8% NH3 and NOx by 10%
Forest cover increase to 21.66%, timber volume increase by 600 m cubic meters
Energy and CO2 emission Energy consumption cap Energy saving: 16% energy intensity reduction Carbon reduction: 17% carbon intensity reduction
Non-fossil fuel energy: increase in share from 8.3% in 2010 to 11.4% 2015
Regional desegregation of national targets for performance evaluation on local gov officials
regions provinces Energy intensity
targets
Group I Tianjin, Shanghai, Jiangshu, Zhejiang and
Guangdong 18%
Group II Beijing, Hebei, Lianning and Shandong 17%
Group III Shanxi, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Anhui, Fujian, Jiangxi, Henan, Hubei, Hunan, Chongqin,
Sichuan and Shaanxi 16%
Group IV Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, Guizhou, Yunnan,
Ganshu and Ningxia 15%
Group V Hainan, Tibet, Qinghai and Xinjiang 10%
Mitigation policies: measures & actions Energy efficiency
super- super- critical thermal power, mandatory shutdown of small scale generation units
automobile: from Euro I to Euro IV and V in 10 years Buildings codes
renewable energy China became the largest investor in renewable energy market, with 48.9 billion
USD in 2010, consisting 28% of the world investment. Wind: China has 42.3 GW of wind power; surpassed the US in terms of total
installed capacity. China has become the world’s largest producer of wind energy equipment.”
Solar: by 2011, China has 13018.4MW Solar PV, consists 47.8% of the world market. Solar water heaters: completely commercialised
Hydropower: China’s Hydro power installation increased 5.3% in 2010, the newly added installation consists 50% of the world total installation in 2010.
Bio-gas: forestation Sources:UNDP2010 Report on Renewable Energy; Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency; Chinese Renewable Energy Industry Association (CREIA);
Low carbon cities
Source: IEA, 2011, China National Statistic Yearbook 2011
per capita CO2
10.47
14.8913.36
7.9
4.896.23
4.84
8.27
3.38
19.8
0
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beijing
tianjin
shanghai
chongqing
hainan
China
world EU
developing US
Low carbon city pilot programmes: low
carbon city planning • Target setting: short and
long term
• measures Energy efficiency measures
Renewable energy utilization
Forest sinks
• Policies: cap & trade, incentives, regulation
• Consumer behavior
Conclusions: the way forward Climate compatible development for climate
security: urban planning and management Transforming the energy system for securer
energy supply: affordable, sustainable, and reliable
Consumption ethics: sustainable and low carbon, respect for nature, away from wasteful and luxurious consumption
Integration: pollution control, low carbon, ecological restoration
Working together: global efforts