Climate Change: New Operations and Modeling Technologies

Ants Leetmaa

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Princeton, NJ

OVERVIEW

The Grand Challenges for 21st Century

• issues associated with population growth

• a changing climate

Climate – a global forecast

Possible impacts of global warming

Necessary new products to meet emerging societal needs

Institutional challenges for the NMHSs

Population Growth and Associated Issues

•9 billion (B) people by 2050 (50% increase)

•Increasing urbanization into mega-cities – 4B new city dwellers – aging populations

•Food security – sustainable increases in food output/hectare of 200-300% required

•Energy security

•Resulting environmental issues•Water availability•Air pollution•Droughts/floods•Stress on planetary resources

Background: A Variety of Forecasts

Weather• mostly regional, short-lived events• Deterministic forecasts• protection of life Seasonal climate• Global, seasons in advance• Probabilistic forecasts – deviations from normal seasons• Mitigation – energy,food,water,health, etc sectorsClimate change scenarios• Global, visions of the future• Includes chemistry and biology modeling• Projections of possible future changes to climatologies• Understanding unintended consequences & adaptation• Solving the “carbon” problem

Mid-1970s

Atmosphere

Mid-1980s

Atmosphere

Land Surface

Early 1990s

Atmosphere

Land Surface

Ocean & Sea Ice

Late 1990s

Atmosphere

Land Surface

Ocean & Sea Ice

SulphateAerosol

Present Day

Atmosphere

Land Surface

Ocean & Sea Ice

SulphateAerosol

Non-sulphateAerosol

Carbon Cycle

Early 2000s?

Atmosphere

Land Surface

Ocean & Sea Ice

SulphateAerosol

Non-sulphateAerosol

Carbon Cycle

DynamicVegetation

AtmosphericChemistry

Weather

Climate Change

ClimateVariability

Overview of Weather and Climate Models and the Required Observations

Need an Integrated Global Observing

System Going Beyond the WWW

Climate: a global forecast-most socioeconomic sectors can be impacted

-many risks and opportunities are globally correlated

-likelihood of weather extremes changes with climate state

Drier

WetterAnnual change in runoff (cm/yr) Summer Soil Moisture (cm)

Possible Global Warming Impacts

Annual Surface Air Temperature (deg C)

Conditions at double pre-industrial values of CO2

GFDL R30 model

Some New Forecast Products –Weather and S/I

Food Security and Health

•Drought including interactive vegetation

•Heat threats

•Pollution

•Coastal ecosystems

Adaptation

•Sea Level

These will be needed even without significant global warming impacts

° Climate models forced with the observed sea surface temperatures simulate the severe dryness over the US and Asia during 1998 – 2002

observed

Precipitation Departures June 1998 - May 2002

The Potential Exists for Drought Forecasts:

simulated

Critical for food and water security

Drought Forecasts First Steps: Nowcasting and Initialization – next steps – extending this to a North

American product & ….

Dynamical Drought Forecasting: includes land cover, water and carbon dynamics models

• interactive mechanistic physiology

for water and carbon fluxes (plants)• biogeochemical cycling • static or dynamic phenology,

biomass, LAI, vegetation height, disturbance and biogeography on a slow time scales

• multi-layer soil hydrology with frozen soil

• snow cover• runoff through a river network• current and historical global land

use (crop, pasture, tree harvesting)

Tg1, q(Tl, θ L1)

Tg6

qsat(Ts)

snow

Exchange grid

Ocean

θL1, θI 1,

θLn, θI n

Tca, qca

Tl, qsat(Tl)

Terrestrial Ecosystem Forecasting – First Steps: Modeling the Carbon Cycle

Net primary productivity

Diurnal cycle

Annual cycle

Equilibrium storage of carbon (kg/m2) in soils and plants

Pollution is a Global Issues

1990

2030

Projected Surface Ozone Trends - Southern CA

Total Ozone“Asian” Ozone

US EPA

NAAQS

Ozone impacts health and agriculture

2030

Implementing Chemistry-Climate-Air Quality Models

RadiativeForcing

AirQuality

Emissions

Chemistry

Transport

Sinks

Distributions

CirculationHydrological Cycle

Climate Change

HealthAgriculture

Feedbacks

Gobi Desert Dust – April 2001

Increasing pressures to farm marginal regions result in increased aerosol transports during times of climate stress

Global Air Quality & Pollution

Black Blizzard, Dust Bowl U.S

Kansas, 1935

?

Global Aerosol Transports

•A simulation capability with observed winds exists

•being incorporated into coupled climate change models

Barbados-obs; simulated-black

African dust transport across the Atlantic

Excessive Heat Outlook Product - NWS

Likely Increases in Health Threats: Mega-cities, older populations, pollution, increasing temperatures

Hydrologic & Biological Model Integration

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Predicted

Ob

se

rve

dO

bs

erv

ed

Mortality=-37-(1.98*Saldev)+(1.75*Salmax)-(0.23*Salavg)

PredictedMortality

HEC-5

DYN-HYD

SalinityTemperatureCurrents

Apalachicola Bay Hyrodynamic Model

Physical Modeling Biological Modeling

SalinityTemperatureCurrents

Ecological Forecasting: coastal systems are under increasing stress from population growth, chemical runoff, land use

Hypoxia (biological dead zones) in the Gulf of Mexico:- linked to nitrogen (fertilizer) runoff from mid-West farming- depend on changes to runoff patterns- impact coastal fisheries- enhance likelihood of harmful algal blooms

Frequency of Occurrence 1985 - 1999

An Increasingly Stressed Environment

Global Warming Impacts: Sea Level Rise – an existing and emerging threat to coasts and islands

4x CO2

2X

Time of doubling of CO2

Staff of Tuvalu, Funafuti, Meteorological Service

(Southwestern Pacific)

Flooding at Tuvalu Meteorological Observatory, Funafuti

Normal high elevation at

Observatory is 3 meters

Sea Level Trends at Tuvalu(Increasing extremes result not just from slow trends)

Trend=1.8 +-2.8 mm/yr Trend=6.8+-2.8 mm/yr

1980 1990 20001980 1990 2000

Monthly data Hourly data

Larger trend in hourly data results from high spring tides, higher seasonal maximum, variations associated with weather events and long term trend.

Increase roughly at that for global sea level rise

Will your future forecasts be relevant?

Now- 80 degrees, partly cloudy, winds calm

Needed- water levels peaking at 4 meters in 36 hours; subsiding over 3 weeks

Or will you just move your country?

What will be or are your pressing new problem needs?

Your Ability to Develop New Products is Limited

• Technology progresses faster than the demand for new products

• Since these are not your main products, developmental resources will be inadequate

• new demand must be generated -oceanographers and climate guys will play this role

• You are failure adverse – new products entail risks

• The niche will be filled. Since your core business is elsewhere, the opportunity exists for innovators to move in

• Who will the new players be?

Likely Future Product Cycle and Players

‘Prototype’ ‘Reliability’ ‘Convenience’ ‘Public’

Research entities

Specialized centers by region or sector

Private Sector

NMHSs

Some Future Think

•Think interdisciplinary

•Think specialized centers

•Think new partnerships