climate change: ocean impacts on public health donald f. boesch climate change health summit...
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Climate Change: Ocean Impacts Climate Change: Ocean Impacts on Public Healthon Public Health
Donald F. Boesch
Climate Change Health SummitWashington, DCSeptember 20, 2015
MVN RSM ProgramMVN RSM Program
A Global Warming Pause? A Global Warming Pause?
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20152015Virtually Certain Temperature RecordVirtually Certain Temperature Record
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Ocean Heating Has Been SteadyOcean Heating Has Been Steady
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Most of the Heat Stored in OceanMost of the Heat Stored in Ocean
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How Much Will it Warm?How Much Will it Warm?
www.ipcc.ch
Global average surface temperature
It mainly depends on how much greenhouse gases we emit.
Unrestrained growth in emissionsRCP8.5
Rapid emissions reductionsRCP2.6
7.2°F
3.6°F
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Changes Will Vary GreatlyChanges Will Vary Greatly
RCP8.5 Scenario for 2081-2100
Annual mean surface temperature[Chesapeake region warms more than
global average, up to 8°F!]
Average percent change in annual mean precipitation
[~10% increase in Chesapeake region, mainly winter-spring]
www.ipcc.ch
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A Warmer Chesapeake BayA Warmer Chesapeake Bay
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Extensive Effects of Ocean WarmingExtensive Effects of Ocean Warming
Anomalously warm surface water in NE Pacific in 2015•Drought in California
•Heat waves in NW US
•Effects on salmon stocks
•Harmful algal blooms
•Pacific Decadal Oscillation
•El Niño
MVN RSM ProgramMVN RSM Program
Sea Level Had Been Stable 2000 YearsSea Level Had Been Stable 2000 Years
Kemp et al. 2011. Proc. National Acad. Sci
0.0
0.2
-0.2
0.4
-0.4
meters
Tide gauges
Paleo-reconstruction
Less than 1 foot in 2,000 years
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Recent Sea-Level RiseRecent Sea-Level Rise
sealevel.colorado.edu
Since 1992 sea level rising more than twice as fast as for the 20th century as a whole.
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Factors That Influence Sea-Level ChangeFactors That Influence Sea-Level Change
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How Much Will the Seas Rise?How Much Will the Seas Rise?
Horton et al. 2013 Quaternary Science Reviews 84:1
Unrestrainedemissions
Rapid reductions
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Effects of Polar Ice Sheet MeltingEffects of Polar Ice Sheet Melting
West Antarctica
Greenland
Expected change in sea level for a given loss of ice mass from
Greenland and Antarctica.
Paradoxically, sea-level rise is greatest farthest from the source.
MVN RSM ProgramMVN RSM Program
Slowing of Gulf Stream Raises Sea LevelSlowing of Gulf Stream Raises Sea Level
Based on work of Tal Ezer and colleagues, Old Dominion UniversityJ. Geophysical Research 118:685
Gulf Stream strength
Tide gauge level trends
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Vertical Land Motion--GlaciationVertical Land Motion--Glaciation
Late Interglacial
Land surfaces that were depressed by thick ice masses are now rising.
Land surfaces that bulged upward because of these ice masses are now sinking.
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How Much Will Sea Level Rise How Much Will Sea Level Rise in the Chesapeake Bay? in the Chesapeake Bay?
climatechange.maryland.gov
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Consequences of Sea-Level Rise Consequences of Sea-Level Rise
Light blueLight blue: salt marshes
GreensGreens: < 2 m, suscept-ible to innundation
OrangeOrange--yellowyellow: 2-4 m, susceptible to storm surge
Greater Bay volume, ocean influence
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Sea-level Rise & Human CatastropheSea-level Rise & Human Catastrophe
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Climate Change & Tropical CyclonesClimate Change & Tropical Cyclones
Hurricane Katrina intensified as a result of warm surface waters
MTropical cyclones might actually become
less frequent, but more powerful.
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Sea-level Rise Will Not Stop in 2100Sea-level Rise Will Not Stop in 2100
Historic (proxies & tide gauges)
100
200
300
400
0
1000 1500 2000 2300
Year
Sea
-leve
l cha
nge
(cm
abo
ve 2
000)
21st c
entu
ry
Adapted from Schaeffer et al. 2012 Nature Climate Change 2: 867.
RCP4.5Stabilizationwithout overshoot
RCP3-PDPeak and decline
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Harmful Algal BloomsHarmful Algal Blooms
• Neurotoxic• Paralytic• Amnesic• Diarrhetic
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Coastal Ocean & Infectious DiseaseCoastal Ocean & Infectious Disease
• Warmer temperatures
• Enriched waters• Altered ecosystems
• Open to invasions
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Increase in Atmospheric COIncrease in Atmospheric CO22
Starting point 280 ppm
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Ocean AcidificationOcean Acidification
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Climate Change EducationClimate Change Education
K-12 Education (integrated with Next-Generation Science Standards, and Environmental Literacy Requirements)
Higher Education (sustainability literacy, teacher preparation, pipeline)
Informal Education (museums, aquaria, outdoor centers, media)
www.madeclear.org/
Maryland and Delaware Climate Change Education, Assessment and Research
