climate change our present state of understanding
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Climate Change Our Present State of Understanding. Humboldt State University 06 April MMX. Jelte Harnmeijer NASA Astrobiology Institute & Department of Earth and Space Sciences University of Washington. }. (former affiliation). What’s in a name?. ‘Greenhouse effect’. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Climate Change
Our Present State of Understanding
Jelte Harnmeijer
NASA Astrobiology Institute
&
Department of Earth and Space Sciences
University of Washington
(former affiliation)}
Humboldt State University06 April MMX
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What’s in a name?
‘Greenhouse effect’
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What’s in a name?
‘Greenhouse effect’
‘Global warming’
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What’s in a name?
‘Greenhouse effect’
‘Global warming’
‘Climate change’
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What’s in a name?
‘Greenhouse effect’
‘Global warming’
‘Climate change’
‘Global climate destabilization’
climate, n. The characteristic weather conditions of a country or region; the prevalent pattern of weather in a region throughout the year, in respect of variation of temperature, humidity, precipitation, wind, etc., esp. as these affect human, animal, or plant life.
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What’s in a name?
The People
Science
Policy
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What’s in a name?
The People
Science
Policy
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What’s in a name?
The People
Science
PolicyMedia
Corporations
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Climate change is real ...
IPCC (2007)
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Climate change is real ...
IPCC (2007)
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Gruber & Galloway (2009)
... and humans are to blame
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IPCC (2007)
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... and humans are to blame
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• Temperatures are increasing
• Heat waves are increasing
• Heavy precipitation events are increasing
• Snow cover is diminishing
• Weather is becoming less ‘climate-like’:
o Less predictability
o Greater amplitude variations with higher frequency
The Atmosphere Subsystem
Secular changes do not pose the primary threat
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How will greenhouse gas emissions trend?
(1) Hydrocarbon demand, supply & availability
ITPOES (2010)
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How will greenhouse gas emissions trend?
(1) Hydrocarbon demand, supply & availability
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How will greenhouse gas emissions trend?
(2) Population
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How will greenhouse gas emissions trend?
(2) Population
• ~9 billion people predicted by 2050
• China’s population has stabilized
• ~ +750 million in India
• Most newcomers in sub-Saharan Africa
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How will greenhouse gas emissions trend?
(3) Industrialization / ‘Development’
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How will greenhouse gas emissions trend?
(3) Industrialization / ‘Development’
• Developing countries currently provide almost half of the world’s primary commodity exports, whilst importing less than a third.
• Industrializing today’s ~5 billion un-industrialized people and the net 3 billion newcomers would entail ~sextupling primary commodity output
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Geological context
Zachos (2009)
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Geological context
• Anthropocene CO2 concentrations *not* unprecedented
• Anthropocene temperatures *not* unprecedented
• But pace of change is paramount
• Great future unknowns:
o N2O
o CH4
o ocean structure & circulation
o cloud behaviour
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Geological context
Positive feedback mechanisms accelerate change
Examples:
• Ice-albedo feedback
• Carbonate dissolution-ocean acidification
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Geological context
Negative feedback mechanisms limit change
Examples:
• Calc-silicate feedback cycle
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The Ocean Subsystem
• In contrast to our atmosphere, our oceans equilibrate slowly
• Timescale of 103 - 104 years typical
• Over the coming centuries, physicochemical response of our oceans will strongly control climate
• Marine biogeochemical cycling regulates key greenhouse gases
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The Ocean Subsystem
Our oceans have absorbed ~1/3 of anthropogenic CO2 ...
CO2 flux [moles m-2 year-1]
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The Ocean Subsystem
Our oceans have absorbed ~1/3 of anthropogenic CO2 ...
... but there is a price to pay:
pH ≈ - log10 [H+]
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The Ocean Subsystem
Our oceans have absorbed ~1/3 of anthropogenic CO2 ...
... but there is a price to pay:
Some CO2 dissolves: CO2 (g) = H2CO3 (aq)
Which produces acidity: H2CO3 (aq) = H+ (aq) + HCO3
-
(aq)
Which dissolves carbonate:CaCO3 + 2H+ (aq) = Ca2+
(aq) + H2O + CO2
Which produces more CO2 ...
pH ≈ - log10 [H+]
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The Ocean SubsystemImplicated carbonate biosynthesizers:
• Coccolithophores
• Cnideria
(coral reefs, ...)
• Foraminifera
• Echinoderms
(starfish, sea urchins, ...)
• Crustaceans
(crab, lobster, shrimp, crayfish, krill, barnacles, ...)
• Molluscs
(bivalves, ...)
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The Ocean Subsystem
Stramma et al. (2008)
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The Ocean Subsystem
Stramma et al. (2008)
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The Ocean Subsystem
• Temperatures are increasing
• pH is decreasing
• Oxygen Minimum Zones are expanding
• Intense tropical cyclone activity is increasing
• Sea level is rising
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Thinking ahead
Prevent?
or
Adapt?
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Thinking ahead
hope, n. – Gr.: ελπίς (elpis)
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Thinking ahead
“anticipation of misfortune”
hope, n. – Gr.: ελπίς (elpis)
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Thinking ahead
IPCC (2007)
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IPCC (2007)
Thinking ahead
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Thinking ahead
Hawking (2007)
“... the worst case scenario is that Earth
would become like its sister planet, Venus.”
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Thinking ahead
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Planet Venus Earth
Density [g/cm3] 5.24 5.52
Radius [km] 6052 6378
Mass [·1024 kg] 4.86 5.97
Sidereal Orbit Period [Earth years] 0.62 1.00
Sidereal Rotation Period [Earth days] 243 1.00
Surface temperature [K] 730 288-293
Major atmospheric constituentsCO2, N2
N2, O2
Distance from Sun [A.U.] 0.72 1.00
Thinking ahead
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Thinking ahead
Lovelock (2005)
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Thinking ahead
Prevent?
or
Adapt?
(Coping not an option)
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Thinking ahead
Solomon (2009)
Post-hydrocarbon
decay will be
slow
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