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Climate Change: Past, Present, and Future

David KaroweDepartment of Biological Sciences

Western Michigan University

Temperature difference relative to 1950-1980

(http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/animations/)

Warming is now 10-20 times faster than in at least 800,000 years

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Temperature

Solar Irradiance

Can climate change be due to “natural variation”?

Since 1900, natural factors would have caused a slight cooling of Earth

While Earth has been warming fastest, solar irradiance has been decreasing

Is there any debate among scientists about whether humans are the primary cause of global warming?

“Most of the global warming in recent decades can be attributed to human activities."

Scientific organizations endorsing this statement:

United States:National Academy of SciencesAmerican Medical AssociationAmerican Association for the Advancement of ScienceAmerican Meteorological SocietyAmerican Institute of Biological SciencesAmerican Chemical SocietyAmerican Geophysical UnionAmerican Institute of Physics

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Geological Society of AmericaAmerican Academy of PaediatricsAmerican College of Preventive MedicineAmerican Public Health AssociationNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Aeronautics and Space Administration Environmental Protection Agency National Center for Atmospheric ResearchUniversity Corporation for Atmospheric ResearchEcological Society of AmericaAmerican Society of AgronomyAmerican Society of Plant BiologistsAssociation of Ecosystem Research CentersBotanical Society of AmericaCrop Science Society of AmericaNatural Science Collections Alliance

Europe:European Academy of Sciences and ArtsEuropean Science FoundationEuropean Geosciences UnionEuropean Physical SocietyEuropean Federation of GeologistsRoyal Society of the United KingdomAcademie des Sciences (France)Deutsche Akademie der Naturforscher (Germany)Accademia dei Lincei (Italy)Royal Irish AcademyRoyal Swedish Academy of SciencesRoyal Academy of Belgium for Sciences and the ArtsRoyal Meteorological SocietyBritish Antarctic SurveyUnited Kingdom Institute of Biology

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Other countries (≥ 35):Chinese Academy of SciencesScience Council of JapanRussian Academy of SciencesIndian National Science AcademyRoyal Society of New ZealandAustralian Academy of SciencesPolish Academy of SciencesAcademia Brasiliera de Ciencias (Brazil)Royal Society of CanadaAfrican Academy of SciencesCaribbean Academy of SciencesAcademy of Sciences of MalaysiaIndonesian Academy of SciencesAcademy of Science of South Africa

Scientific organizations holding a dissenting opinion:

American Institute of Petroleum Geologists

2007:

Since 2008:

none

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Has Earth stopped warming?

This is a deceptive argument that only works with the Super El Nino year 1998 as the starting point

1998

1996

1999

Has climate change started to affect the U.S.?

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2012 was the warmest year on record for the U.S.

December

49% drought

January

58% drought

February

58% drought

March

56% drought

April

59% drought

May

64% drought

June

72% drought

July

79% drought

August 2012

78% drought

Much of the U.S. has been experiencing severe drought

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April 16, 2013: 62% drought

Is the U.S. still in drought?

What does the future hold?

It depends on the choices we make

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2o

4o

Depending on choices we make, Earth is likely to warm by 2-5o C by 2100

“Business as usual”

Alternate energy sources

Actual

1950-1959

Much of the world is likely to experience much more frequent and stronger droughts by the 2060s

Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)

mild

dro

ught

extr

eme

seve

re

mod

erat

e

exce

ptio

nal

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1950-1959

2000-2009

Much of the world is likely to experience much more frequent and stronger droughts by the 2060s

Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)

1950-19592000-20092060-2069

Much of the world is likely to experience much more frequent and stronger droughts by the 2060s

Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)

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Most summers are likely to be hotter than any experienced thus far

To avoid worst scenarios, we need to rapidly and substantially reduce greenhouse gas emissions

Target: 80% reduction by 2050

Urgent need for alternate energy sources

Solar Wind

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1. We’re causing climate to change at an alarming rate

2. If we continue on our current path, the future is very likely to include unprecedented hardships for all of Earth’s species, includinghumans

3. Many of the worst scenarios can be avoided by smarter energy choices we have available today

The Politics of Climate Change

Paul ClementsProfessor of Political ScienceWestern Michigan University

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The Bottom Line

No way to limit global warming to 2°C without a strong international agreement.

Such an agreement is only possible with American leadership.

Why the 2°C target?

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drought

sea level rise

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floods

famine

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ExtinctionsGlobally, if we allow Earth to warm by 3o C, 

20‐50% of species may be committed to extinction

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Per capita CO2 emissions (tons), 2008

USA 18.6

China 5.3

Sweden 5.3

Brazil 2.0

India 1.5

Kenya 0.3 Source: World Bank

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Principles for no more than 2°C warming:

3 tons/capita C02 emissions for each country by 2050

Industrialized countries help low-income countries to develop with clean-energy technologies

Main beneficiaries of greenhouse gas emitting activities (mainly in industrialized countries) help main victims of climate change (mainly in poor countries) to adapt to climate change and to avoid/recover from worst harms

Why the urgency?

Delaying action makes it more expensive.

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History of Climate Change Policy in the United States

1978, National Research Council:

“if carbon dioxide continues to increase …[we find] no reason to doubt that climate change will result and no reason to believe that these changes will be negligible. … A wait-and-see policy may mean waiting until it is too late.”

1987 Congress directed Environmental Protection Agency to develop national policy on climate change, directed Secretary of State to coordinate diplomatic efforts to combat global warming.

1988 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) established by World Meteorological Organization & United Nations Environment Programme

1990 IPCC published first report confirming human-induced climate change

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1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change signed by George H. W. Bush, ratified unanimously by U.S. Senate

1997 Kyoto Protocol; Senate unanimously passed resolution stating the U.S. should not enter into a treaty that did not include binding commitments from developing countries or that would cause harm to the U.S. economy.

2000 President George W. Bush repudiated Kyoto Protocol, chose not to regulate CO2

2005 California Governor Schwarzenegger ordered state’s total greenhouse gas emissions to be reduced to 2000 levels by 2010, 1990 levels by 2020, and 80% below 1990 levels by 2050. Corresponds to 12.5 tons of CO2

equivalent per capita in 2010, 10 tons in 2020, and 1.5 tons in 2050.

2007 Supreme Court decided Massachusetts vs. EPA by 5-4 majority giving EPA authority to regulate greenhouse gasses.

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2009 Democratic majority in U.S. House of Representatives passed climate change bill proposing cap and trade system, yielding estimated price of $13 in 2012 to emit a ton of CO2. Aimed to reduce U.S. emissions to 18 tons per capita by 2020 and 4 tons per capita by 2050. Bill supported by President Obama, but died when Senate refused to take it up.

Climate change conference in Copenhagen agreed to 2°C target but fails to set binding commitments (lacking U.S. support).

Hillary Clinton promised that U.S. would help to raise $100 billion annually by 2020 to help poor countries cope with climate change if China and India accepted binding commitments open to international inspection and verification.

2010 Fred Upton’s website: “I strongly believe that everything must be on the table as we seek to reduce carbon emissions.”

2011 Upton became chair of House Energy and Commerce Committee.

Upton in Wall Street Journal op-ed: EPA regulation to curb greenhouse gas emissions “presumes that carbon is a problem in need of regulation. We are not convinced.”Carbon rules are “an unconstitutional power grab that will kill millions of jobs.”

Upton authored Energy Tax Prevention Act prohibiting the EPA Administrator from regulating greenhouse gasses and repealing mandatory reporting of greenhouse gasses. (It passed the House but died in the Senate.)

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2013 President Obama asserted commitment to address climate change in inaugural address and State of the Union speech.

But effective action to limit warming to 2°C requires a strong international agreement.

Not possible without American leadership; requires not only presidential leadership but also Congressionalsupport.

The Politics of Climate Change:

Denial and Government Failure to Act

Ron Kramer

Department of Sociology

Western Michigan University

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• Climate change is the most important moral, social and political issue of our time

• The symbolic use of the concept of crime and criminality concerning climate change

• Crime: a grievous, blameworthy harm

• Refers to the failure of governments to act to mitigate or adapt to climate change

• Climate Change from a

Criminological Perspective

Rob White (ed.)

• My chapter focuses on

climate change as

“state-corporate crime”

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• Despite the climate emergency, there has been

a monumental failure of the political system to act

• The abject failure of the U.S. government to act to mitigate GHG emissions and the socially organized denial of climate change that shapes that failure can be conceptualized as state corporate crimes.

• A “blameworthy harm”; a “crime of omission”; “negligent state criminality,” where the government fails to act affirmatively to prevent unnecessary and premature loss of life

The Politics of Climate Change•Interactions between the fossil fuel industry and the federal government result in a lack of action on climate change:

1. Subsidies

2. Lobbying

3. Campaign Contributions

4. Revolving Door

5. Drafting of Legislation

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Climate Change Denial Countermovement

• The global warming denial movement, organized by corporate and ideological interest groups, creates doubts about climate science and blocks actions to reduce emissions and create energy alternatives.

• Denial efforts are largely carried out by conservative think tanks funded for the most part by the fossil fuel industry.

• They attempt to obfuscate, misrepresent, manipulate or suppress the results of scientific research.

There are five types of climate change denial argument:

1. Conspiracy theories-Plot to abolish capitalism or “Climategate” emails prove conspiracy

2. Fake Experts-Petitions show there is no consensus or spokespersons with no background in climate science

3. Impossible expectations-Climate models not completely certain

4. Misrepresentations and logical fallacies-The climate has changed in the past, current change is natural variation

5. Cherry-picking-Isolated papers and data are selected while the larger body of evidence is ignored

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The Moral/Political Challenge of Climate Change

• A matter of Social Justice:

• Ecological debt to global South

• Suffering of the poor

• Moral obligation to future generation

• Obligation to other species