climate change science panel - friedland & fogarty

8/15/2019 Climate Change Science Panel - Friedland & Fogarty

1/22

Climate and Fisheries

Kevin D. Friedland and Michael J. FogartyNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Northeast Fisheries Science Center


2/22

Expected Changes in Ocean Dynamics Under Global Climate Change

-Increased water temperature-Increased melting of sea ice-Changes in salinity due to runoff and evaporation-Changes in major current systems

-Increased stratification-Changes in position and intensity of frontal zones-Changes in upwelling intensity-Changes in turbulence and mixing-Changes in distribution of marine organisms-Shifts in productivity of exploited species


3/22

AtmosphericForcing

OceanDynamics

BiologicalResponse

Ice CoverWater Temperature

Wind Speed& Direction

Precipitation& Runoff Wind-driven

Currents

Salinity

Buoyancy-driven Flow

Stratification& Fronts Upwelling

Downwelling

PrimaryProduction

SecondaryProduction

FishRecruitment& Production

Fishery Yield Turbulent

Mixing

Atmospheric Temperature


4/22

The North AtlanticOscillation affects:

Temperature PatternsWind FieldsPrecipitation


5/22

NAO Affects Cod Recruitmentin the North Atlantic

Brander and Mohn 2004


6/22

Beaugrand et al 2003

Plankton and Cod Recruitment


7/22

Maine Lobster Landings and theNorth Atlantic Oscillation

1945 1965 1985

Year

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

a n

n g s

o

u s a n

NA

OWi n t er I n d ex


8/22

7 6 W 7 4 W 7 2 W 7 0 W 6 8 W

3 6 N

3 8 N

4 0 N

4 2 N

4 4 N

A r e a 5

A r e a 7

A r e a 1

A r e a 3

A r e a 6

Friedland and Hare, in review

Long-term Sea Surface Temperature


9/22

8

9

10

11

12

14

8

10

8

10

12

14

10

12

14

14

16

12

14

16

10

12

14

14

16

12

14

16

18

20

21

22

7

8

9

10

11

1 86 0 1 88 0 1 90 0 1 92 0 1 94 0 1 96 0 1 98 0 2 00 020

21

22

1 86 0 1 88 0 1 90 0 1 92 0 1 94 0 1 96 0 1 98 0 2 00 0

7

8

9

M e a n a n n u a

l t e m p e r a

t u r e ,

C

A H

I

J

K

L

M

N

B

C

D

S umm

er -wi n

t er

t em p er a

t ur e

d i f f er en

c e , C

E

F

G

Year

Trends in Long-term SSTand Seasonal SSTDifference


10/22

Gulf of Maine (Area 1) detail

8

9

10

11

12

14

A H


11/22

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000-2

-1

0

1

2

N o r m a

l i z e

d m

i n i m a

( - ) a n

d m a x

i m a

( - )

Year

Scaled minima and maxima for all areas


12/22

Gulf of Maine Cod Landingsand Temperature

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Year

0

5

10

15

20

L a n d i n g s ( ' 0 0 0 m t )

6

8

10

12

T em

p er a t ur e

( C )

Cod Temp


13/22

Effect of Temperature onMean Latitude of Occurrence

Murawski 1993

BluefishSpiny Dogfish

Winter Flounder Red Hake

Longfin SquidSilver Hake

Long Horn SculpinWhite Hake

PollockAmerican PlaiceHaddock

Temperature Change Coefficent

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7-0.1-0.2


14/22

Offshore hake southern deepwater species

Cold conditionsWarm conditions

Response: move

to cooler conditions

Courtesy Ken Frank, BIO


15/22

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

-4

-2

0

2

4

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

b

N o r t

h A t l a n t i c

O s c

i l l a

t i o n

Year

D

e n

O e v e r r e c r u i t m

e n

t ( l o g

) a

Recruitment and NAO Time Series

Friedland et al 2007


16/22

20

25

30

35

40

60s

20

25

30

35

40 70s

L a

t i t u d e

( N )

1.0 m 2 sec -1

80s

-70 -65 -60 -55 -5020

25

30

35

40 90s

-65 -60 -55 -50

00s

50s

Longitude (W)

Ekman Transport


17/22

Early SpringPhytoplankton BloomFavors HaddockRecruitment On TheScotian Shelf

Platt et al. 2003


18/22

Georges Bank Haddock Recruitment andSpring Bloom Start Date

40 50 60 70 80

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

L o g

R e c r u

i t s S S B - 1

T-test MethodCumVar Method

Day of year

Friedland et al. in prep


19/22

Need Mechanistic Understanding of ClimateEffects on Living Marine Resources

GLOBEC and other Climate

Programs Addressing thisNeed


20/22

Climate can Affect Basic Productivity Patterns


21/22

Effects of an Environmental Shift

If Intrinsic rate of increase is affected

FavorableEnvironment

UnfavorableEnvironment


22/22

Conclusions

-Decadal-scale variation in ocean climate evident.-North Atlantic Oscillation dominant feature in thisregion.-Changes in NAO have been linked to changes incod recruitment.-Changes in fish distribution have been linked totemperature & NAO.-Migratory species may be impacted by factorsoccurring in distant locations.-Complex interactions between exploitation andharvesting can be expected.

climate change science panel - friedland & fogarty

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