Climate Change

The big questions:1.Is the global climate changing?2.Will Climate Change cause problems and what are those problems?3.Are human activities causing climate change?

Lima promoUNEP: A briefing on the eve of COP 20 in Lima 2014 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wTx_5QZVRoc

How does the climate change?What Influences Climate?

• What is climate? (climate vs. weather)• What influences climate?– Atmospheric (tropospheric) gases (Greenhouse Gases “GHG”)• Greenhouse effect (warming effect)• Aerosols (cooling effect) • Radiative Forcing

– Lattitude/Earth Axis Tilt/Angle of the sun– Ocean • Absorption• Currents (thermohaline currents)• ENSO (El Nino/La Nina)

– Milankovich Cycles and Solar Cycles– Albedo• Snow• Cloud

What is climate?• A lot of times, people use the words

“weather” and “climate” without really knowing the meaning behind the two.

• Weather is the instantaneous description of what the atmosphere’s doing at that moment in time.

• Climate, on the other hand, is a description of what the weather is usually like. Climate includes averages as well as extremes.

• Climate usually includes information such as snowfall, precipitation, highs and lows.

Influence on Climate:Atmospheric Gases (GHG)

• Greenhouse gases (heating)• Aerosols (cooling)

The Electromagnetic Spectrum

The Troposphere is where it’s AT

How Greenhouse Gases Warm the Atmosphere

How GHG Heat the Earth’s Atmosphere

1. Solar energy comes from the sun2. The earth absorbs the solar radiation,

transforming the solar energy into Infrared (IR) energy and re-emitting IR radiation

3. The infrared energy from the earth is absorbed by the GHG and re-emitted keeping the heat in the atmosphere and slowing its escape into space.

4. GHGs are like a big blanket-they don’t produce heat they just keep it close.

Quiz

1. Where does the Greenhouse effect occur?2. What is the direct source of the heat in our

atmosphere?3. What is the ultimate source of heat in our

atmosphere?4. What kind of radiation is heat? Are the

waves short or long?

Answers1. Where does the Greenhouse effect occur?

Troposphere

2. What is the direct source of the heat in our atmosphere?Earth

3. What is the ultimate source of heat in our atmosphere?Sun

4. What kind of radiation is heat? Are the waves short or long?

Infrared radiation is long wavelengths

What does this graph tell us/ why is it important?

• Most Energy comes to the earth as light

“Goldilocks” PlanetNot too hot, Not too cold, Just Right!

• Venus has a strong greenhouse effect• Mars doesn’t have a greenhouse effect

Greenhouse Effect Animation

• Greenhouse Gases Absorb and Re-emit Infrared Radiation

• “Trap heat”• Increase GHG, Increase Re emitters, Increase

Global temperatures.• Who are the best “Re-emitters?NPR Carbon Animations 1-5 (16 Min)http://www.npr.org/news/specials/climate/video/

Greenhouse Effect Animationhttp://www.planetseed.com/flash/science/features/earth/climate/en/greenhouse/index.htm

Atmospheric Gases

GHGs are a very small percentage of the

atmosphere

Anthropogenic GHG(Water Vapor is not listed)

Which GHGs should we prioritize for reduction?

Methane

• Produced by Anaerobic Bacteria– Anaerobic decomposition in landfills– Rice fields– wetlands– Feedlots (Cow and animal manure)– Frozen anaerobic decomposition in tundra

(potential)– Methane hydrates at sea floor bottom

Questions with Concentrations

Questions with concentrationhttp://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/greenhouse_data.html

Adding up all anthropogenic greenhouse sources, the total human contribution to the greenhouse effect is around 0.28% (factoring in water vapor).

Adding up all anthropogenic greenhouse sources, the total human contribution to the greenhouse effect is around 0.28% (factoring in water vapor).

Flux of Carbon From Lithospheric Sources

Change in GHG

Radiative Forcing:Impact on the global temperature

Change

Radiative Forcing

Most Abundant in AtmosphereMolecule Data

H2O 30,000-40,000ppmCO2 390ppmCH4 1750ppbN2O 323ppbO3 34ppb

CFCHCFC

SF6

513ppt

Most Potent per molecule Compared to CO2

Molecule DataCFC

HCFCSF6

12,000x

O3 3000xN2O 289xCH4 72xCO2 1xH2O Not Given

Fastest IncreasingMolecule Data

CFCHFCSF6

NA

CH4 150%CO2 39.5%O3 36%

N2O 19.6%H2O 0%

Radiative ForcingMolecule Data

CO2 1.46CH4 .48O3 .35

CFCHCFC

SF6

.17

N2O .15H2O Not Given

% Contribution to Global WarmingMolecule Data

H2O 36-72%CO2 9-26%CH4 4-9%O3 3-7%

N2O 2%CFC

HCFCSF6

.5%

Atmospheric LifetimeMolecule Data

CFCHCFC

SF6

CFC-260 yrPFC-50,000yr

SF6-3200yrCO2 200 yrN2O 114 yrCH4 12 yrO3 22 days

H2O 10 days

Quiz1. List the 6 GHG molecules 2. Which is the most abundant?3. Which is the most potent?4. Which is the greatest contributor to global warming?5. Which has the greatest “Radiative Forcing”? Why?6. What is “Radiative Forcing”?7. List 10 ways humans emit GHG’s (Include at least one

source for each molecule)8. Give an example of an aerosol

Answers1. List the 5 GHG molecules

Water, carbon dioxide, methane, halocarbons, nitrous oxide, Ozone

2. Which is the most abundant?water vapor (H2O), Others in order: carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), ozone (O3) Halocarbons (CFC, HCFC, SF6)

3. Which is the most potent?Halocarbons, Ozone, Nitrous Oxide

More Answers

4. Which is the greatest contributor to global warming?

Water5. Which has the greatest “Radiative Forcing”?

Carbon dioxideWhy?

Because it is so much more abundant than any other anthropogenic GHG.

4. What is “Radiative Forcing”?The ability of a gas to CHANGE the temperature of earth

List 10 ways humans emit GHG’s1. Water- – heating the earth and causing more evaporation.

2. Methane– Anerobic Decomposition – Landfills, rice farms, feedlots, warming tundra, melting

methane hydrates3. Nitrous Oxide– Fertilizers

4. Ozone– Heat of combustion in engines

5. Halocarbons– Refrigerants, industrial chemicals

6. Carbon dioxide– Combusting Fossil Fuels in power plants, automobiles,

engines etc

What Influences Climate?

• What influences climate?– Atmospheric (tropospheric) gases (Greenhouse Gases “GHG”)• Greenhouse effect (warming effect)• Aerosols (cooling effect) • Radiative Forcing

– Lattitude/Earth Axis Tilt/Angle of the sun– Ocean • Absorption• Currents (thermohaline currents)• ENSO (El Nino/La Nina)

– Milankovich Cycles and Solar Cycles– Albedo• Snow• Cloud

Influence on Climate:Latitude/Earth Axis Tilt

Influence on Climate:Ocean Influences

• Absorption• Currents (Thermohaline currents)• ENSO (El Nino/La Nina)– El Nino-Southern Oscillation

Ocean Thermal Absorption

Gulf Stream and NADW

Gulf Stream and NADW

El NiñoFarley El Nino

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IvmeUStFvz8

El Nino

Wet, rainy conditions from southwestern U.S. to Northwestern South America•Floods •Infectious diseases from vectors (Malaria, Yellow Fever, Dengue Fever)•Infectious diseases from water (Cholera)

Influence on Climate:Milankovich CyclesSolar Cycles

Influence on Climate:Albedo

• Snow• Clouds

Albedo

Radiative Forcing

Evidence• Proxy Indicators– Ice core samples– Tree ring data– Ancient Sea floor Sediments

• Direct Sampling– Keeling Data from Mauna Loa

• Climate Modeling– Complex with sources of error

• Climate Models (9min)• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6Un69RMNSw&lr=1

Proxy Indicators

Earth History

Ice Ages and CO2

The Climate has Changed Over Time

Carboniferous Period

Carboniferous Period

Keeling Data

• Latest Carbon Numbers: 350 - 392ppm• http://www.carbonify.com/carbon-dioxide-

levels.htm

October historical levels

1958 - NA1959 - 313.261960 - 313.831961 - 315.381962 - 315.421963 - 315.991964 - 316.791965 - 317.31966 - 318.11967 - 319.311968 - 320.251969 - 321.781970 - 323.161971 - 323.571972 - 325.061973 - 327.181974 - 327.211975 - 328.361976 - 328.77

1977 - 331.211978 - 332.411979 - 334.121980 - 336.051981 - 337.121982 - 338.391983 - 340.31984 - 341.681985 - 343.081986 - 344.471987 - 346.651988 - 349.081989 - 350.291990 - 351.591991 - 352.321992 - 353.311993 - 354.121994 - 356.09

1995 - 357.971996 - 359.541997 - 360.711998 - 364.351999 - 365.352000 - 366.992001 - 368.422002 - 370.512003 - 373.12004 - 374.442005 - 376.972006 - 379.162007 - 381.142008 - 382.992009 - 384.392010 - 387.182011 - 388.922012 - 391.01

Table data source: Dr. Pieter Tans, NOAA/ESRL

Problems Predicted to be caused by Global Warming

Dueling senators on Durban Climate Talkshttp://www.scpr.org/news/2011/12/07/30233/dueling-videos-senate-durban-climate-change-talks/

Climate Cover uphttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TbeVIkNvrfU

Global Warming Hoax-Glenn Beckhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Io-Tb7vTamY&feature=related

Explaining Modelshttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Io-Tb7vTamY&feature=related

Problems Related to Climate Change• Glaciers melt

– Habitats shrink– Water storage capacity/aquifer recharge decrease– Flooding– Changes in World Climates

• Famine/Mass human migrations• Fires• Coastal Areas Flood• Storms increase in number and intensity• Oceans become more acidic/Less productive– Habitats destroyed (coral bleaching/fisheries degrade)

Ocean Thermal Absorption

Glacier Melt• Floods from glacier melt

Copyright © 2008 Pearson Education, Inc., publishing as Pearson Benjamin Cummings

Temperature changes are greatest in the Arctic

• Ice caps are melting• Polar bears are starving• Storms are increasing• Sea ice is thinning

Change in Ocean Currents from Ice Cap Melting

• Melting of ice caps changes the salinity of ocean water disrupting the Gulf Stream currents that warm Europe.

Melting Glaciers 2:46http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pp5Ry8khNCg&list=UUTrQ7HXWRRxr7OsOtodr2_w&index=3&feature=plcp

Agricultural Problems

• Droughts and floods affect crop production• Growing season shortened.• Pollinators will not match earlier growing

season.

Drought, Flooding and Food Shortages

Forestry Problems

• Longer, warmer fire seasons• Invasive Species increase• Insect infestations• Disease outbreaks

Fires

Temperature Increases• Heat waves/deaths• Habitat change and destruction (worst at

poles and mountain tops)

Rising Sea Levels from Melting Ice Caps

• Rising sea levels increasing storm impacts• Rising sea levels cause salt water intrusion

into coastal aquifers.• Rising sea levels destroy coastal habitat.• Rising sea levels cause people to move.– 52% of people live at sea level

Consequences

Coastal Flooding

More Severe Storms

Storm Surge

Barrier Islands and Coastal Wetlands

Habitat Destruction

Human Health Problems

• Respirator Diseases from pollution• Expansion of tropical diseases carried by

insect vectors• Sanitation problems and floods affect waste

treatment and leach toxins from landfills• Injuries from storms and drowning• Hunger related ailments

Economic and Social Problems

• Widen gap between rich and poor creating social tensions

• Lower GDP (5-20% by 2100)• Mass migrations tensions• Starvation and Hunger tensions

Human Migrations

Ocean Warming Problems

• Ocean warming causes stratification of oceans which separates plankton from nutrients and decreases plankton populations and affects the food web reliant on the plankton producers.

• Acidification destroys coral reefs and mangroves which provide breeding and feeding grounds for fish and therefore, food for humans and provides storm protection.

• Ocean warming causes ocean water to expand and increases coastal flooding problems.

Ocean Acidificationhttp://www.wunderground.com/climate/videos.asp?video=nutshell8 (2:40)

Ocean Warming Effects on Plankton Productivity

Climate Feedback LoopsPositive Feedback Loops•Ocean Temperature/Absorption•Permafrost Carbon Dioxide/Methane Loop– Methane Hydrates in arctic and on ocean floor

•Forest Fires•Water Vapor/Temperature•DesertificationNegative Feedback Loops•Increase in NPP with more Carbon dioxide•Black Box radiation (Hotter objects radiate more heat)

Positive Feedback Loop: Albedo

Albedo

Positive Feedback Loop: Temperature and pH

Ocean Warming Effects on Plankton Productivity

Positive Feedback Loop: Permafrost and Methane

Permafrost Carbon Feedback Video 4 minhttp://www.theage.com.au/environment/climate-change/where-even-the-earth-is-melting-20121127-2a5tp.html

Coral Bleaching

Gulf Stream and NADW

Gulf Stream and NADW

Precautionary Principle

• It is good to take action to prevent a catastrophe even if there is not 100% certainty that the catastrophe will occur.

Sources and Solutions#1 Electrical Generation

Carbon Sources and Solutions# 2 Transportation

Conventional cars are inefficient

Sources and Solutions

Conservation?

• What can you do?• http://www.wunderground.com/climate/

videos.asp?video=nutshell11

Shall we pursue mitigation or adaptation?• Mitigation = pursue actions that reduce

greenhouse gas emissions, in order to lessen severity of future climate change– Renewable energy sources, farm practices to protect

soil integrity, preventing deforestation• Adaptation = accept climate change is happening

and pursue strategies to minimize its impacts on us– Criticized as sidestepping

• Both are necessary

Solutions

• Conservation– Insulation– Efficient Appliances– Using fewer appliances

• Carpooling• Public Transportation• Cap and Trade• Offsets

International Agreements• UNEP (United Nations Environmental Programme• 1987- IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) – formed to EVALUATE research on Climate Change (Does not

conduct research)• 1992- Rio Earth Summit – Countries agreed to The UN

FCCC (Framework Convention on Climate Change) – which is a voluntary framework for countries to reduce

greenhouse gas levels• 1997 Kyoto Protocol – binding treaty to reduce GHG to 5%

below 1990 levels

Kyoto Protocol• 1997 Kyoto Protocol – binding treaty to reduce GHG

to 5% below 1990 levels– US will not sign until developing economies agree

to targets.– Took effect in 2005 (Russia Signed it)– Requires nations to • reach goals between 2008 -2012• Monitor and report emissions.• Set up an adaptation fund to assist poor

countries in dealing with climate change.

IPCC Reports

COP17. The 17th Conference of the Parties (COP17) to the United Nations

Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

• Climate Change Conference: Durban Update Dec. 3• http://www.rtcc.org/?

gclid=CNfD6fjj6awCFckZQgod1iZIKA

• Update on First Week of the conference• http://www.npr.org/player/v2/mediaPlayer.html?

action=1&t=1&islist=false&id=143107400&m=143107812

COP18. The 17th Conference of the Parties (COP18) to the United Nations

Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

• COP 18 Report• http://www.youtube.com/watch?

v=0ij0G5Khd8A

Per capita responsibility for current anthropogenic CO2

Top 5 Emitters in 2005

Country or region % of global totalannual emissions

Tonnes of GHGper capita

Chinab 17 % 5.8United Statesa 16 % 24.1

European Union-27a 11 % 10.6

Indonesiac 6 % 12.9India 5 % 2.1

Why Kyoto Protocol will not have any impact on Climate Change

• The Kyoto Protocol calls for mandatory carbon dioxide reductions of 30% from developed countries like the U.S. Reducing man-made CO2 emissions this much would have an undetectable effect on climate while having a devastating effect on the U.S. economy. Can you drive your car 30% less, reduce your winter heating 30%? Pay 20-50% more for everything from automobiles to zippers? And that is just a down payment, with more sacrifices to come later.

• Such drastic measures, even if imposed equally on all countries around the world, would reduce total human greenhouse contributions from CO2 by about 0.035%.

• This is much less than the natural variability of Earth's climate system!• While the greenhouse reductions would exact a high human price, in terms of

sacrifices to our standard of living, they would yield statistically negligible results in terms of measurable impacts to climate change. There is no expectation that any statistically significant global warming reductions would come from the Kyoto Protocol.

Climate Change Deniers vs. Believers• Wall Street Journal video “CO2 is not a problem” Jan 2012

(6:46)• http://online.wsj.com/article/

SB10001424052970204301404577171531838421366.html#articleTabs%3Dvideo

• Ted Talk Feb 2012 (17 min) Dr. Hanson• http://www.ted.com/talks/

james_hansen_why_i_must_speak_out_about_climate_change.html