climate change - the most vulnerable places and people (martin parry)

8/14/2019 Climate Change - The Most Vulnerable Places and People (Martin Parry)

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CLIMATE CHANGE THE MOSTVULNERABLE PLACES AND

PEOPLEMartin Parry

Grantham Institute /Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London

and UK [email protected]

[Co-Chair Working Group (Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability)

2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment]


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1. Most key impacts stem from reduced water availability.

Hundreds of millions of people will be additionally exposed to increased water

stress. Changes in run-off, 21st century. White areas are where less than two-

thirds of models agree, hatched are where 90% of models agree (IPCC SYR)


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Undefined

> 50 %

20 to 50 %

5 to 20 %

-5 to 5 %

-20 to -5 %

-50 to -20 %

< -50 %Not assessed

Water

Country-level impacts on rain-fed cereals, % yield change , 2080s(HadCM3-A1FI)

2. Crop yields are projected to decrease , especially at lower latitudesTens of millions estimated to be additionally at risk from hunger.


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2020s 2050s 2080s

%

changeinpricesfrom1

990base

line

10

8

6

4

2

0

22020s 2080s 2020s 2080s

40004200

3800

3600

3400

3200

3000

2800

2600

2400

2050s 2050s

Cerealproduction(mmt)

Referencescenario

Climate changescenario

2020s 2050s 2080sAdditionalmillionsofpeopleat

riskofhunger

5045

40353025

20151050

Additional people at risk of hunger

(0 = reference case, i.e. about 300million in 2000, FAO ).

Projected global cereal production for reference

case and the climate change scenario.

Percentage change in global cereal prices under the

climate change scenario

(0 = reference case).


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Additional number of people at risk of hunger in

Africa under the climate change scenario (0 =

Projected reference case).

2020s 2050s 2080s

45

40

35

30

2520

15

10

5

0

Africa

Additionalmillionsofpeop

leat

riskofhunger

Projections for cereal production in Africa

under the reference case and the climate

change scenario

340360

320300280260240220200

180160140

2020s2050s

2080s 2020s2050s

2080s

Cerealproduction(mmt) Africa

scenario scenario

Reference Climate change


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3. Densely populated megadeltas especially in Asia and

Africa, are most at risk. Tens of millions will be additionally at risk


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4. Health effects will be generally negative, especially on the

poor, elderly, young and the marginalised


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5. Summary: People will be most at risk in:

Most vulnerable regions: Africa, Asian mega-deltas, small islands, the Arctic

Most vulnerable sectors:

water in the dry tropics agriculture in low latitudes human health in poor countries where activities depend on sensitive ecosystems, especially: tundra,

boreal, mountains; or ecosystems already stressed: e.g. mangroves,coral reefs.

In all countries, even those with high incomes, some are especially atrisk: the poor, young children, the elderly, the marginalised.


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6. How can we best respond?

a) Reduce emissions (mitigation)

b) Adaptation (reduce vulnerability)

c) Follow pathways of development and

governance which effectively combine

mitigation AND adaptation


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Committed0.6oC

2.0oC target(pre-ind.)


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6a. Summarised impacts from IPCC WG2

Technical Summary; and mitigation targetsCommitted0.6oC

2.0 target(pre-ind.)


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6b. Adaptation options are extensive and well tested. Butwhat are their limits and costs?


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Peak c. 2065with start2015

Peak c. 2080with start2025 Peak c. 2100with start

2035

unmitigatedpresent

Recovery by2300 withstart 2015

pre-industrial temp change C

Recovery by2200 with

start 2015

T uncertainty range:

90th percentile temp.



Adaptation levels:low (10% cover)

moderate (50% cover)

large (90% cover)

Peak c. 2065with start 2015

Peak c. 2080with start 2025

Peak c. 3000

with start 2035

Recovery by2200 with start

2015

Recovery by2300 with start

2015

Parry, et al., Nature, April 2009


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6c. Development Pathways (implicitly combining

adaptation and mitigation). IPCCs SRES scenarios

A1 = World of Global Markets: high growth, hightech, low pop,

A2 = World of Regional Enterprise: high pop (11bnin 2050), high growth (but inequitable) [currentpathway]

B1 = World of Global Sustainability: low pop,moderate growth, global environmentalagreements

B2 = World of Local Stewardship: low pop (9 bn in2050), moderate growth, local envt management


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0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080

Year

MillionMetricTonnes

SRES A1SRES A2

SRES B1

SRES B2

Projected cereal production under the four SRES scenarios

(no climate change). BLS run with FAO assumptions


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-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080

Year

Changeincerealprices(%)

SRES A1

SRES A2

SRES B1

SRES B2

Projected global cereal prices, relative to 1990 , for the four SRES

marker scenarios (no climate change). BLS with FAO assumptions


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0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080

Year

Additionalmillionsofpeople

SRES A1 SRES A2 SRES B1 SRES B2

Projected numbers of people at risk of hunger, for the four SRES

scenarios (no climate change). BLS with FAO assumptions


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0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2020 2050 2080

AdditionalMillionsofPeople

A2 - Regional Enterprise B2 - Local Stewardship

Projected climate change- induced

additional people at risk of hunger


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CONCLUSIONS: HUMANITARIAN

IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGEMOST AT RISK ARE: People in most vulnerable places:

Africa, small islands, Asian mega-deltas

Main effects felt through:increased water shortage, increased risk of hunger, risks to human health

People in most vulnerable livelihoods:un-irrigated farming in dry tropics, poor people in tropical megacities

Poor, elderly, young and marginalised people, including those in developedcountries

HOW CAN WE BEST RESPOND: Even the most stringent mitigation may not avoid a further 2.5 deg C warming

(i.e. 3 deg C above pre-industrial); and the implied impacts are very large.

Adaptation is urgent, and we should plan to adapt for at least 3.5 deg C.

Emissions reductions are needed now, or capacity to adapt may be exceeded.

Equitable and sustainable development, combining both adaptation and mitigation isprobably the most effective response

climate change - the most vulnerable places and people (martin parry)

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