climate change & the uncertainty monster · ! no basis for developing a pdf (no mean, weakly...
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Climate Change & the Uncertainty Monster
Judith Curry Climate Forecast Applications Network
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Uncertaintyandthescience–policyinterface
observations
research assessment
policyRiskRuinBlackswansDragonkings
KnowledgetransmissionPoliticization
ExpertjudgmentConsensusbuilding
KnowledgefrontierModelinadequacyUnknowns
Socialinvestment
Meas.ErrorsHistoricallimitationsSpatialrepresentativeness
bias
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Uncertainty Monster The “monster” is a metaphor used in analysis of the response of the scientific community to uncertainties at the science-policy interface. Confusion and ambiguity associated with: § knowledge versus ignorance § objectivity versus subjectivity § facts versus values § prediction versus speculation § science versus policy
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Genealogy of the Uncertainty Monster Monster theory: monster as symbolic expressions of cultural unease that pervade a society and shape its collective behavior Monster metaphor of Dutch philosopher Martintje Smits: co-existence of public fascination and discomfort with new technologies Uncertainty monster of Dutch social scientist Jeroen van der Sluijs: ways in which the scientific community responds to the monstrous uncertainties associated with environmental problems
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Uncertainty monster coping strategies Monsterhiding.Neveradmiterrorstrategymotivatedbyapoliticalagendaorfearofbeingjudgedaspoorscience.
Monsterexorcism.Reducing uncertainty through more research.
Monstersimplification.Subjectivelyquantifyingandsimplifyingtheassessmentofuncertainty.
Monsterdetection.Scientists,auditors,merchantsofdoubt.
Monsterassimilation.Givinguncertaintyanexplicitplaceinthecontemplationandmanagementofenvironmentalrisks.
VanderSluijs(2005)
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UnderstandingtheuncertaintymonsterReasoning about climate uncertainty. Climatic Change (2011)
Climate science and the uncertainty monster. Bull Amer Meteorol. Soc. (2011)
Nullifying the climate null hypothesis. WIRES Climate Change (2011)
Climate change: No consensus on consensus. CAB Reviews (2013)
Climate uncertainty and risk. risk. CLIVAR Variations. (2018)
Sea level rise: what’s the worst case? (in prep)
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Levelofu
ncertainty Deep
Scenario
Statistical
Controllability
Controllable Uncontrollable
optimalcontrol
cost/benefitanalysishedginginsurance
adaptivemanagement
precautionscenarioplanning
robustnessresilienceanti-fragility
Decision–analyticframeworks
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Shouldwehaveconfidenceinfutureprojectionsfromclimatemodels?
TheIPCCAR4providedthefollowingconclusion:
“Thereisconsiderableconfidencethatclimatemodelsprovidecrediblequantitativeestimatesoffutureclimatechange,particularlyatcontinentalscalesandabove.”
Isthislevelofconfidenceinclimatemodelprojectionsjustified?
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Epistemicstatusofclimatemodels
ClimatemodelsimulationsrepresentpossibleclimatefuturesClimatemodelscannotfalsifyorverifypossibleclimatefuturesAreclimatemodelsconsistentwithbackgroundknowledge?• Climatemodelsmakeassumptionsthatweknowtobefalse• Climatemodelshavebeenknowntoproducerealistic
simulationsofsomevariablesVerifiedpossibilitiesrequiresthatclimatemodelsareimperfectcredibleworldswithregardtosomeoftheirprojections
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Howmuchconfidenceshouldwehaveinclimatemodels?
Mauritsenetal.(2013)
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Scenariosofclimatefutures
Existingclimatemodelsdonotallowexplorationofallpossibilitiesthatarecompatiblewithourknowledgeofthebasicwaytheclimatesystemactuallybehaves.Someoftheseunexploredpossibilitiesmayturnouttoberealones.Scientificspeculationonplausible,high-impactscenarios.Theworst-casescenarioisthemostextremescenariothatcannotbefalsifiedasimpossiblebaseduponourbackgroundknowledge.
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Possibilityverification
Stronglyverifiedpossibility–basictheoreticalconsiderations,empiricalevidence
Corroboratedpossibility-ithashappenedbeforeVerifiedpossibility–consistentwithrelevantbackground
knowledge(Un)verifiedpossibility-climatemodelsimulationBorderlineimpossible–consistencywithbackground
knowledgeisdisputed(‘worstcase’territory)Impossible–inconsistentwithrelevantbackgroundknowledge
GregorBetz
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unverifiedpossibilities
borderlineimpossible
verifiedpossibilities
strong
Classifyingpossibilities
Allpossibilities(withappropriateclassification)areusefulforpolicymaking
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EquilibriumClimateSensitivitytoDoubledCO2
011.52.02.53.03.54.04.561020T(oC)
IPCCAR5likelyrange
CMIP5modelrange
Lewis/Curry2015likelyrange
corroboratedpossibilities
(un)verifiedpossibilities
borderlineimpossible
IPCCAR5SPM:“Nobestestimateforequilibriumclimatesensitivitycannowbegivenbecauseofalackofagreementonvaluesacrossassessedlinesofevidenceandstudies.“
IPCCAR5perspective
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EquilibriumClimateSensitivitytoDoubledCO2
011.52.02.53.03.54.04.561020T(oC)
theo
retical
no-fe
edback
sensitivity
Lewis/Curry2018v.likelyrange1.15-2.7C
stronglyverified
corroboratedpossibilities
What’stheworstcase?
JC’sperspective
upperlimitv.likelyrange IMPOSSIBLE
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EquilibriumClimateSensitivitytoDoubledCO2
011.52.02.53.03.54.04.57.161120T(oC)
CMIP5modelrange
Weitzmann(2008)
0.01%
0.05%
Perspectivefromeconomistsandthesocialcostofcarbon
valueusedinIPCCAR5WGIII
Socialcostofcarbonisdrivenbyextremevaluesofclimatesensitivity
5%
USIWGSCC
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Worstcasescenarioversus‘fattail’
Uncertaintystatusofequilibriumclimatesensitivity:scenario/deepuncertainty;Level4uncertainty!nobasisfordevelopingaPDF(nomean,weakly
defendedupperbound)
Statistically-manufactured‘fattails,’witharguablyimpossiblevaluesofclimatesensitivity,aredrivingcalculationsofthesocialcostofcarbonà MonstercreationThebestthatwecandoisboundtherange:bestcase,worstcasescenarios
loppingoffthe‘fattail’
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On trial in MN: Social Cost of Carbon
A 1990s law requires the MN Public Utilities Commission (PUC) to establish externality values for CO2 and other power plant pollutants to help guide utility planning decisions. The PUC adopted the federal Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) PUC/SCC was challenged by energy companies and industry groups in a recent trial
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Pindyck:Use&MisuseofModelsforClimatePolicy
“Buildingandusingelaboratemodelsmightallowustothinkthatweareapproachingtheclimatepolicyproblemmorescientifically,butintheend,liketheWizardofOz,wewouldonlybedrawingacurtainaroundourlackofknowledge.”Instead:• Focusoncatastrophicoutcomes• Avoidthepretensethatweknowthedamagefunction,climatesensitivity,etc.
• Useexpertopiniontodeterminetheinputstoasimplemodel
“Paynoattentiontothemanbehindthecurtain!”–WizardofOz
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IsCO2the‘controlknob’forsealevelrise?
“Inlookingforcauses,Ihaveappliedthe‘SherlockHolmesprocedure’ofeliminatingonesuspectafteranother.Theprocedurehasleftuswithoutanygoodsuspect.ThermalexpansionwasthecandidateofchoiceatthetimeofthefirstIPCCreview.Thecomputedstericrise[fromwarming]istoolittle,toolate,andtoolinear.”– WalterMunk
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Predictingsealevelrise:2100“Weareintheuncomfortablepositionofextrapolatingintothenextcenturywithoutunderstandingthelast.”–WalterMunkProjectionsoffuturesealevelrise:àSemi-empiricalapproachesbasedonpastrelationshipsofsealevelrisewithtemperatureàProcess-basedmethodsusingmodels
• Thermalexpansionfromoceanwarming:deriveddirectlyfromtheglobalclimatemodelsimulations
• Changesinglacierandsurfacemassbalance:regionalmodels;empiricalrelations
• Contributionsfromicesheetdynamics:icesheetmodels,expertjudgment,and/orstatisticalprojections.
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Globalsealevelrise:2100(m)
00.20.30.60.81.01.52.02.5359
IPCCAR4likelyIPCCAR5likely
expectedSLRexperttestimony
worstcaseestimates
expectedSLRHansenetal
CCSR2017likely
NOAA2017H++
Horton2014xperteliclikely
ΔT=4.5C
Expertassessments
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Globalsealevelrise:2100(m)
00.20.30.60.81.01.52.02.5359
IPCCAR4likely
corroboratedpossibilities IMPOSSIBLEverified
possibilitiescond.onΔT
borderlineimpossible
NOAA2017H++
Horton2014xperteliclikely
ΔT=4.5C
JCperspective
worstcaseunverifiedpossibility
unverifiedpossibilitiescond.onΔT
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Sealevelrise2100:What’stheworstcase?
Estimatesofworstcaserangefrom1.6mto3.0mNOAAH++scenario2.5m:probabilityof0.05%Probabilityforworstcaseismisleading:unknownprobability‘Worstcase’scenarioisdrivinginfrastructureplanningandlawsuits
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WestAntarcticIceSheet(WAIS)
• Completecollapsewouldraisesealevelby10feet• IPCCAR5:mediumconfidencewouldnotexceedseveraltenthsof
ameterofsealevelriseduringthe21stcentury(~8inches)
Confoundingfactors:• 138volcanoes• WAisrising41cm/yr
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Chengetal.2017
Whatiscausingrecentsealevelrise?
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GreenlandmeltingandtheAMO
Fettweisetal.2008
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Framingerror:‘unknownknowns’
Unknownknowns:known‘neglecteds’.Knownprocessesoreffectsthatareneglectedforsomereason.Climatechangeproblemframedtoonarrowly:drivenbyCO2Predictionsof21stCsealevelchange-knownneglecteds:
• Solarvariabilityandsolarindirecteffects• Volcaniceruptions• Naturalinternalvariability(large-scaleoceancirculations):
impactonglacier/icesheetmassbalanceGreenland• Geothermalheatsources:Greenland,Antarctica• Geologicuplift:Greenland,Antarctica
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Blackversuswhiteswans
Human-causedclimatechange
• Highlycomplexdynamicalsystem• Nosimplecauseandeffect• Climateshiftsnaturallyinunexpectedways.
• CO2istheprimaryclimate‘controlknob’
Naturalclimatevariability
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50 YEARS, 100 YEARS
Emissions
Scenarios of future climate
Solar effects
Volcanic eruptions
Regional change Extreme events Black swans
Climatemodels
Historical and paleo observations
Statistical models
Climate dynamics
Unknowns
Natural internal variability Long range
processes
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Are GCMs the best tool for developing scenarios of future climate change?
Challenges:
• GCMs do not simulate the full likely range of climate sensitivity, nor full range of climate-relevant processes
• current GCMs inadequate for simulating natural internal variability on multidecadal time scales
• computational expense precludes adequate ensemble size
• GCMs currently have no skill in simulating regional climate variations
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Alternativescenariogenerationmethods
• Hybridmodels:integrateGCMs,processmodels,empiricalmodels,expertjudgment(un)verifiedpossibilities
• Climatology(historical,paleoclimate)(verifiedpossibilities)
• Extrapolationofrecenttrend(corroboratedpossibilities)• Dynamicclimatologyempiricalmodel(Suckling/Smith)(verifiedpossibilities)
• Network-baseddynamicclimatology(Wyatt&Curry)(verifiedpossibilities)
• Secularglobalwarmingasamultipliereffect(conditionallyverified)
• “Whatif”scenariosrelativetovulnerabilitythreshold
• Sensitivityanalyses(unverifiedpossibilities)
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Levelofu
ncertainty Deep
Scenario
Statistical
Controllability
Controllable Uncontrollable
optimalcontrol
cost/benefitanalysishedginginsurance
adaptivemanagement
precautionscenarioplanning
robustnessresilienceanti-fragility
Decision–analyticframeworks
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Oversimplification!alarmism
PROBLEM
SOLUTION
positivefeedback
oversimplifyinguncertainty
monstercreation
framingerror
policycartb4scientifichorse
enragedmonsters
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A tamed uncertainty monster
“Beingopenaboutuncertaintyshouldbecelebrated:inilluminatingwhereourexplanationsandpredictionscanbetrustedandinproceeding,then,inthecycleofthings,toamendingtheirflawsandblemishes.”-BruceBeck
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