climate change: uncertainty, disagreement, and moving
TRANSCRIPT
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Climate Change: Uncertainty, Disagreement, and Moving Forward Together
Thomas G. White, Ph.D. and John W. Delano, Ph.D.
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Outline/Plan
I. Introduction: Broad Contours of Uncertainty and Disagreement
II. Climate Science Perspective (John)
A. Data
B. Models
III. Social Science and Other Perspectives on Moving Forward (Tom)
A. Promising Work in Psychology and Economics
B. Big Ideas from Multiple Perspectives
IV. Questions, Comments, and Reactions (3:45-4:00)
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Virtually NO Disagreement on Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) among Climate Experts
Source: Cook, J., van der Linden, S., Maibach, E., & Lewandowsky, S. (2018). The Consensus Handbook. Available at:http://www.climatechangecommunication.org/all/consensus-handbook/
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Scientific Uncertainty: What is it, and what are the sources of uncertainty?
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Image from NASA / NOAA / GSFC / Suomi NPP satellite
The 'Blue Marble'
image of Earth
Climate Science Perspective
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Major Questions about Earth’s Climate System
What is the greenhouse effect?
How much has climate changed in the past?
What has driven Earth’s climate changes in the past?
How are ancient atmospheric compositions determined?
What is the main source of excess CO2 in today’s atmosphere?
How are climate models determined?
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Greenhouse Effect
http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/thermo/grnhse.html
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Greenhouse Effect
H2O (vapor)
CO2 (gas)
CH4 (gas)
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Major Questions about Earth’s Climate System
What is the greenhouse effect?
How much has climate changed in the past?
What has driven Earth’s climate changes in the past?
How are ancient atmospheric compositions determined?
What is the main source of excess CO2 in today’s atmosphere?
How are climate models determined?
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L. E. Lisiecki and M. E. Raymo (2005) A Pliocene-Pleistocene stack of 57 globally
distributed benthic 18O records. Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, 20 (1), 17 pages.
Global climate has been gradually cooling for 3.5 million years
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cold
warm
low
high
J. Jouzel, et al. (2007) Orbital and millennial Antarctic climate variability over the last
800,000 years. Science, 317, 793-796.
D. Lüthi, D., et al. (2008) High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650,000-
800,000 years before present. Nature, 453, 379-382.
Monnin, E., et al. (2001) Atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the last glacial
termination. Science, 291, 112-114.
Parrenin, F., et al. (2007) The EDC3 chronology for the EPICA Dome C ice core.
Climate of the Past, 3, 485-497, 2007
low
cold
800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0
Years (before present)
D
(p
er m
il)
C
O2
(pp
m)
Data from the Antarctic EPICA Dome C ice core
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S. Marcott, et al. (2013) A Reconstruction of Regional and Global
Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years. Science, 339, 1198-1201.
10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0
Years (before present)
10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0
Tem
per
atu
re a
nom
aly
(C
)
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Major Questions about Earth’s Climate System
What is the greenhouse effect?
How much has climate changed in the past?
What has driven Earth’s climate changes in the past?
How are ancient atmospheric compositions determined?
What is the main source of excess CO2 in today’s atmosphere?
How are climate models determined?
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https://www.climate.gov/taxonomy/term/3451
Milankovich Cycles and Climate
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Major Questions about Earth’s Climate System
What is the greenhouse effect?
How much has climate changed in the past?
What has driven Earth’s climate changes in the past?
How are ancient atmospheric compositions determined?
What is the main source of excess CO2 in today’s atmosphere?
How are climate models determined?
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11 annual layers in Greenland ice core
7.5 inches
https://www.researchgate.net/figure/cm-long-section-of-GISP-2-ice-core-from-1855-m-
showing-annual-layer-structure-illuminated_fig17_295918492
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Data from the Antarctic EPICA Dome C ice core
800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0
Years (before present)
D
(p
er m
il)
C
O2
(pp
m)
low
high
low
cold cold
warm
Ancient air bubbles
trapped in the
Antarctic ice core
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Data from the Antarctic EPICA Dome C ice core
800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0
Years (before present)
D
(p
er m
il)
C
O2
(pp
m)
low
high
low
cold cold
warm
Ancient air bubbles
trapped in the
Antarctic ice core
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https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/webdata/ccgg/trends/co2_data_mlo.png
CO
2(p
pm
)
Year
Pre-industrial atmosphere
contained 280 ppm CO2
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Comparison of pollution and energy
C (coal) + O2 (air) → CO2
394 kJ
Burning of natural gas
CH4 (methane) + 2O2 (air) → CO2 + 2H2O
890 kJ
Burning of coal
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Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, U. S. Department of Energy
Annual CO2 emissions
5 billion tons
10 billion tons
15 billion tons
20 billion tons
25 billion tons
30 billion tons
35 billion tons
Year
0
1751 1800 1850 1900 1950 2017
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“Isotopic fingerprints”
Volcanic CO2 emissions: -2 to -6‰
Weathering of crustal rock: -7‰
Burning of coal: -25‰
Burning of oil: -18 to -34‰
M. Rubino, et al. (2013) A revised 1000 year atmospheric δ13C‐CO2 record from Law Dome
and South Pole, Antarctica. J. Geophys. Res. (Atmospheres), 118 (15), 8482-8499.
1000 1600 1800 20001200 1400Year
13C [%o]
CO2 [ppm]
CO
2(p
pm
)Year [AD]
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(2017) Climate Science Special Report,
4th National Climate Assessment, vol. 1, Figure 3.3
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Major Questions about Earth’s Climate System
What is the greenhouse effect?
How much has climate changed in the past?
What has driven Earth’s climate changes in the past?
How are ancient atmospheric compositions determined?
What is the main source of excess CO2 in today’s atmosphere?
How are climate models determined?
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Ensemble Model
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COVID-19 projections
Climate projections
Rate of greenhouse gas input
Planetary albedo
Human population growth
Rise in affluence
Infectious period
Time: illness onset to hospitalization
Time: onset of illness to death
Hospital stay time
Time to recoveryMortality rate
Rate of positive cases per day
Mitigation effects
Lockdown fatigue factor
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IHME projection on September 10, 2020Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=total-deaths&tab=trend
United StatesAll deaths specific to COVID-19
100
Tota
l d
eath
s (t
hou
san
ds)
200
300
400
500
600
0Mar 1 Apr 1 May 1 Jun 1 Jul 1 Aug 1 Sep 1 Oct 1 Nov 1 Dec 1 Jan 1
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Z. Hausfather and G. P. Peters (2020) Emissions – the ‘business as usual’ story
is misleading. Nature, 577, 618-620.
Year
150
100
50
0
An
nu
al
glo
ba
l fo
ssil
-fu
el C
O2
emis
sio
ns
(bil
lio
ns
of
met
ric
ton
s)
1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100-20
Emission Models with Climate Effects
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Major Questions about Earth’s Climate System
What is the greenhouse effect?
Infrared energy trapped by greenhouse gases
How much has climate changed in the past?
Gradual cooling during the last 3 million years
What has driven Earth’s climate changes in the past?
Milankovich cycles, plate tectonics, ocean circulation
How are ancient atmospheric compositions determined?
Analysis of old air trapped in ice cores
What is the main source of excess CO2 in today’s atmosphere?
Burning of fossil fuels and deforestation
How are climate models determined?
Weighting of processes and projections of human behavior
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John Delano mentioned during the class that the atmospheric residence time of CO2 is about 50
years. During the question-and-answer portion of the class, a comment was made by a student
that the atmospheric residence time of a radioactive isotope of carbon (14C) is about 10 years.
Therefore, the residence time of CO2 must also be about 10 years, not 50 years. John Delano
thanked the individual for his comment, and said that this matter would be pursued.
John Delano’s response
(a) It is correct that the atmospheric residence time of 14C is 5 to 10 years. However, residence
time is dependent on molecular species. For example, Earth’s atmosphere has several kinds of
carbon-bearing molecules, such as CO2, CH4, CO, and CH3Cl. The latter three molecules have
atmospheric residence times of less than 10 years. Therefore, the set of molecular species to
which the 14C atoms are bonded determines the residence time of 14C in the atmosphere.
(b) The atmospheric residence time of CO2 is generally thought to be at least 30 years, and
possibly as long as 100 years. John Delano used a value of 50 years during the class. The
exact value lies somewhere between 30 and 100 years, and remains an area of scientific
investigation.
Here is a peer-reviewed scientific article bearing on this matter:
G. C. Cowley (2011) On the atmospheric residence time of anthropogenically sourced
carbon dioxide. Energy and Fuels, 25 (11), 5503-5513.
Follow-on to a question raised during the class
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Social Science and Other Perspectives on Moving Forward
• Promising Work in Psychology and Economics
• Big Ideas from Multiple Perspective
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Pascal’s Wager
Earthly punishment
Earthly rewards
Eternal misery Eternal rewards
Behave as if God Exists (Good Deeds)
God Exists
No
Yes
No Yes
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Pascal’s Wager and Climate Change
No Disruption and No Costs 😀
Costs without benefit or costs with potential co-benefits🤔
Disruption and Suffering😟😩
Money well spent😀
Take Action
Climate is Changing andHumans Are Responsible(AGW—Anthropogenic Global Warming)
No
Yes
No Yes
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What if we create a better world for nothing?
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Pascal’s Wager Revisited
Money well spent😀
Take Action
Climate is Changing andHumans Are Responsible(Anthropogenic Global Warming—AGW)
No
Yes
No Yes
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Perception of Scientific Agreement
Source: van der Linden, S., Leiserowitz, A., & Maibach, E. (2019). The gateway belief model: A large-scale replication. Journal of Environmental Psychology, 62, 49–58.
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Large Consensus Messaging Effects for Republicans (!)
Source: van der Linden et al. (2019). The gateway belief model: A large-scale replication. Journal of Environmental Psychology, 62, 49–58.
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Framing: Conservative and Liberal Climate Change Solutions
• Participants heard two different accounts of a speech on climate change, either ✓free market friendly (U.S. could profit from leading the
world in green technology), OR
✓heavily regulatory, emphasizing government restrictions on emissions
• Participants answered survey questions measuring their belief in human causation and agreement with climate change science.
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Framing Study Results
Source: Campbell & Kay (2014). Solution aversion: On the relation between Ideologyand motivated disbelief. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 107, 809-824.
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Modeling Health Co-Benefits and Mitigation Costs
Three-step process:
1. GCAM is used to quantify greenhouse gas emission pathways and associated mitigation costs under different assumptions.
2. Air quality model is used to translate emission levels into pollutant concentrations, exposure, and premature deaths.
3. Effects in (2) are monetized based on a range of values for the “Value of a Statistical Life” (VSL).
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Emissions Scenarios and Premature Deaths from Pollution
Source: Markandya et al. (2018) Lancet Planet Health, 2, 126-133.
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Health Co-Benefits and Mitigation Costs
Source: Markandya et al. (2018) Lancet Planet Health, 2, 126-133.
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Should we trust this economistand his model-based predictions?
Anil Markandya, Distinguished Professor, Basque Center for Climate Change, Spain
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Source: Stoknes, Per Espen (2015). What we think about when we try not to think about global warming. White River Junction, VT: Chelsea Green Publishing.
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Source: Otto et al. (2020). Social tipping dynamics for stabilizing the earth’s climate by 2050. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117, 2354-2365.
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STEs = Social Tipping Elements and STIs = Social Tipping Interventions.Source: Otto et al. (2020). Social tipping dynamics for stabilizing the earth’s climate by 2050. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117, 2354-2365.
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Let’s not forget the philosophers!
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And the religious and spiritual leaders…The more deeply I search for the roots of the global environmental crisis, the more I am convinced that it is an outer manifestation of an inner crisis that is, for lack of a better word, spiritual. ⏤ Al Gore (?)
Evangelicals should return to being people known for our love and care of the earth and our fellow human beings. ⏤ Richard Cizik, Vice President of Governmental Affairs, National Association of Evangelicals
As the guardians of Allah’s creation we have a responsibility to protect the environment. ⏤ Fazlun Khalid, Founder and Director of the Islamic Foundation for Ecology and Environmental Sciences
Our beloved Earth, so touchingly looked upon as the Universal Mother, has nurtured mankind through millions of years of growth and evolution. Now centuries of rapacious exploitation of the planet have caught up with us, and a radical change in our relationship with nature is no longer an option. ⏤ Hindu Declaration on Climate Change
Ultimately, the decision to save the environment must come from the human heart. ⏤ The Dalai Lama
If we feel helpless or overwhelmed, if we have anger, fear, or despair, then no matter what we do to heal ourselves or the planet, it will not succeed. ⏤ Thich Nhat Hanh, Love Letter to the Earth
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Image credit: Wikipedia
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