climate change vs. stormwater infrastructure · climate change vs. stormwater infrastructure...
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CLIMATE CHANGE vs. STORMWATER INFRASTRUCTURE
Michael Hulley, Ph.D., P.Eng.Associate Professor
Department of Civil EngineeringRoyal Military College of Canada
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OVERVIEW
1. Climate change in Ontario2. Analysis of historical rainfall in Canada3. Brief history of stormwater management4. Approaches to mitigate adverse impacts5. Summary
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CLIMATE CHANGE IN ONTARIO
General consensus that global average temperatures are increasing (IPCC, 2007).
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007, Climate
Change 2007: ThePhysical Science Basis,
Technical Summary, IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland.
oC
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CLIMATE CHANGE IN ONTARIO
Why Increase in green house gases
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007, Climate
Change 2007: ThePhysical Science Basis,
Technical Summary, IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland.
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CLIMATE CHANGE IN ONTARIO
What about precipitation?
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007, Climate
Change 2007: ThePhysical Science Basis,
Technical Summary, IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland.
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CLIMATE CHANGE IN ONTARIO
What about precipitation?
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007, Climate
Change 2007: ThePhysical Science Basis,
Technical Summary, IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland.
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CLIMATE CHANGE IN ONTARIO
Typically, how is precipitation information used for design of stormwater infrastructure? Infamous Intensity-Duration-Frequency or IDF curves
Rai
nfal
l Int
ensi
ty
Time of Concentration
Return Period
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PRECIPITATION IN CANADA
Recent findings:• Is there evidence of climate change in the historical
precipitation records?• Research addressed Intensity-Duration-Frequency
rainfall design curves (RMC/Queen’s/Environment Canada).
• Analyzed longest and strongest precipitation records across Canada.
• Rigorous methodology developed.• Only location with statistically significant positive
trend (rainfall) was Yellowknife.
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PRECIPITATION IN CANADA
Subjective Review of Historical Rainfall Records
05
101520253035404550
No jumpor trend
Jump PositiveTrend
NegativeTrend
Freq
uency
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PRECIPITATION IN CANADA
Jump Example:
05
101520253035404550
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Dep
th (m
m)
Annual Maxima Sample Mean Jump Location
Time series of Toronto Pearson 1 h rainfall depths.
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PRECIPITATION IN CANADA
Trend Example:
Time Series of Yellowknife Airport 15 min Rainfall Depths
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PRECIPITATION IN CANADA
What about Split-Sample-Analysis?
Finding not worth the effort.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0 10 20 30 40 50 60Duration (h)
Inte
nsity
(mm
/h)
1st Half 2nd Half Complete
Montreal IDF relation 100-year quantiles 1 h to 24 h.
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STORMWATER MANAGEMENT
Storm Sewer Era (~1880-1970)
Newark, NJ Vancouver (~1900)
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STORMWATER MANAGEMENT
SWM Era (~1970-1990)
Cataraqui Pond, Kingston
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STORMWATER MANAGEMENT
Urban Stormwater BMP Era (~1990-2007)
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STORMWATER MANAGEMENT
Today (2010) and Tomorrow ?
Portland, OR
York University
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STORMWATER INFRASTRUCTURE
• Sensitivity of SW infrastructure to CC depends on magnitude of expected change & type of infrastructure
NEW INFRASTRUCTURE• Design pipe diameter will increase if design rainfall
increases.• Required live storage of quantity control structures
may increase.• Required storage volume of quality control may
increase. • Size of CSO abatement structures may change.
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STORMWATER INFRASTRUCTURE
EXISTING INFRASTRUCTURE• May be under-designed.• More frequent maintenance may be required.• Retrofitting opportunities.
Frazil ice flood event on the Moira River, Belleville
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STORMWATER INFRASTRUCTURE
OTHER FACTORS INFLUENCING DESIGN• Changing guidelines and standards.• Financing models.• Public expectations.• Population growth.
All of the above may have as great an impact on design requirements as climate change.
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SOLUTION
1. Examine design criteria & methodology• Design return periods have not changed in many
years & may not reflect current or future risk of damage.
• In many cases, methodology does not reflect advances in science or best available technology.
• (Adapting to Climate Change in Ontario, Report of the Expert Panel on Climate Change, 2009, Goals for Government, Recommendation 14)
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SOLUTION
2. View climate change as an additional uncertainty• Consider potential impacts of climate change as
one of several uncertainties.• Other uncertainties include future population
growth, new standards, new financing models, changing public expectations, evolving attitudes towards the natural environment
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SOLUTION
3. Relate design criteria to uncertainty• In other civil engineering fields, design criteria are
explicitly related to uncertainty, e.g. safety factors.• In stormwater management, design criteria are
fixed regardless of uncertainty level. • Why? Is this appropriate?
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SOLUTION
4. Consider adaptive planning & design • In Insofar as possible, maintain flexibility. • Facilitate revision of design criteria.• Revise plans as design criteria and methodology
evolve. • Provide some overcapacity as a hedge against
increased rainfall.
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SUMMARY
• Accept a non-stationary climate. • Review of historical rainfall records in Canada
indicates that the only significant trend (positive) in event rainfall is in Yellowknife.
Analysis should be repeated.
• Review design standards and view climate change as an additional uncertainty.