climate change water climate change, water resources ... change, water...• 2000 ‐heaviest...

Climate Change Water Climate Change, Water Resources and Adaptationp

Climate Change Policies in the Arab Middle EastClimate Change Policies in the Arab Middle East Challenges for Decision Makers and Activists

A Regional Conference21‐22 October 2008Amman ‐ Jordan

Dr Amjad AliewiHouse of Water and Environment

Ramallah, Palestine1

What is Climate Change?What is Climate Change?

• Climate change is the change in the magnitude of a• Climate change is the change in the magnitude of a single climate parameter such as temperature.

• Is it really confirmed that some areas are shifting to colder, wetter, cloudier, and windier conditions and other areas shift to the opposite direction?!!

2

Parameters of Climate ChangeParameters of Climate Change

Climate Changesg

Temperature

Precipitation

Sea Level Rise

3

Variation of the Earth’s Surface Temperature for the Past 140 yearsfor the Past 140 years

Global mean surface temperatures have increased

4

Sea Levels have Risen

5

Pathways of Climate Change Impacts

6

Climate Change: a threat for water resources in our region

Lower rainfall.

Increase in the intensity and distribution of precipitationIncrease in the intensity and distribution of precipitation.

An increase of floods.

A rise of temperature.

It will add pressure on ‐ water resources‐ water resources.‐ environment resources

‐ ‐ coastal system

7

y

Climate Change: a threat for water resources in our region

Temp warmining will lead to more demand on water.

Evaporation will increase and this will reduce the availableEvaporation will increase and this will reduce the available water supply.

Water quality will deteriorate due to high concentration of agriculture chemicals in lower flows.

Intensification of rainfall will be responsible for soil erosion, leaching of agriculture chemicals and runoff of urban wastesleaching of agriculture chemicals and runoff of urban wastes and nutrients into water bodies.

8

Potential Climate Change Impacts on Water Resourceson Water Resources

• Change in average precipitation• Change in average precipitation

• Change in the character of precipitation (rainfall intensity)

• Changes in amount, timing and distribution of floods and droughts

• With a warmer land and atmosphere:• More precipitation falls as rainp p• Winter runoff is increased• Winter starts later (or earlier?) and ends earlier (or later?)S i ff l i li ( l t )• Spring runoff pulse is earlier (or later)

• Summer runoff (if any) is decreased

9

Extreme EventsExtreme Events

• 1991/2 ‐ Wettest year recorded over the century, with annual mean precipitationabove 200% in most areas.

• Water levels in aquifers returned to the levels of 1950’s in many places.

• 1995, 1998 ‐ While most spring and fall khamasin events (hot, dry cyclone) occurin May‐June and in September‐October, respectively, the first ever recordedkhamasin as late as July (accompanied by a severe forest fire in the West Banky ( p ymountains) and as early as April in 1998 (causing severe agricultural damage)occurred in 1995 and 1998, respectively.

10

• 1998 ‐ Hottest summer recorded.

• 1999 – First khamasin ever recorded in December, accompanied by severe forest fires on Mt. Carmel.

• 1998/9 and 1999/2000 ‐ two consecutive years of extreme drought and the longest drought ever recorded in the south (leading to widespread mortality of trees ).)

• 2000 ‐ Heaviest snowfall in the northern Negev.

• 2000 ‐ Hottest July in the last 50 years, with a mean temperature 4oC higher than average. Highest recorded temperature (41oC) in Jerusalem since 1888.

11


• Surface water

• Groundwater

• Availability of water supplies

12


• Drinking and agricultural waters (less rainfall)

• Coastal property and infrastructure (sea

level rise)level rise)

• Economic activity

13

Precipitation Intensity Increases

• More intense precipitation

• Precipitation increases are due to the strong events• Precipitation increases are due to the strong events

14

Rainfall of Nablus City – Annual amount

15

Rainfall of Nablus City – Number of Rainy Days

16

Minimum and Maximum Numbers of Rainy Daysof Rainy Days

The minimum and maximum numbers of rainy days per year for the past 30 years are 23 and 46 days, respectively with

f dan average of 39 days per year.

It can be inferred that the rainfall amount per a rainyIt can be inferred that the rainfall amount per a rainy day is increasing while the frequency of rainy days is decreasing.g

17

Distribution of drought, dry, normal d and wet years

18

Surface runoff and flush floods Surface runoff and flush floods

Increased risk of floods due to sea level rise and heavy rainfall events

• The vegetation in the semi‐arid and arid parts of Palestine significantlyreduces the permeability of the underlying soil.p y y g

• The projected reduced precipitation processes, will expand the dryness ofh lthe top soil.

• In addition to the 2 points above the projected increased rain intensityIn addition to the 2 points above, the projected increased rain intensity,the surface runoff will increase.

Thus, climate‐change induced increased surface runoff will exacerbatedesertification.

19


• The increased rainfall intensity will also increase surfacerunoff from urban areas.

• This, together with the increased runoff from open areas willgenerate more frequent and more powerful flash floods thatbeside damage to infrastructures and life will lead to anbeside damage to infrastructures and life will lead to anincreased water loss, either to the Mediterranean or to theDead Sea.Dead Sea.

20


• The increased runoff, coupled with sea level rise andincreased rain intensity may cause flooding leading to thecreation of swampscreation of swamps.

• A decrease in the hydraulic slope between drainage systems• A decrease in the hydraulic slope between drainage systemsand sea level reduces the efficiency of water transfer andincreases the probability of flooding. This may result in ap y g yrelatively high vulnerability to projected increases in rainintensity and surface runoff.

21

Impact of Climate Change on Water Availability

O thi d f• One third of

the world’s population is nowpopulation is now subject to water scarcity

• Climate change is projected toprojected to decrease water availability in many arid‐ and semi‐arid regions

22

Impact of Climate Change on Water Availability

• In Palestine 40 % of the communities do not have access to water supply

• This translates to 35% of the population

• 67% of the Palestinians do not have safe sanitation

23

Climate Change: Impact on RechargeClimate Change: Impact on Recharge

• The variations in the amount of precipitation, the timing of precipitation events, and the form of precipitation are all key factors in determining the amount and timing of recharge to aquifersaquifers.

• Droughts result in declining water levels not only because ofDroughts result in declining water levels not only because of reduction in rainfall, but also due to increased evaporation and a reduction in infiltration that may accompany the development of dry top soils.

• Extreme precipitation events (e g heavy rainfall and storms)• Extreme precipitation events (e.g., heavy rainfall and storms) may lead to less recharge to groundwater because much of the

precipitation is lost as runoff.

25

p p

Climate Change Impact on Groundwater FlowClimate Change Impact on Groundwater Flow

Climate variability and change may be important considerations for overall changes to the groundwater flow.

Coastal aquifers are sensitive to changes in water budget due to the interaction between fresh and saltbudget due to the interaction between fresh and salt water in the subsurface along the coast.

When recharge is lowered, the position of the freshwater‐saltwater interface will move inland.

Similarly, a rise in sea level that might accompany climate change will move this interface inland.

26

g

Climate Change Impact on FlowClimate Change Impact on Flow

27

Climate Change Impact on GW StorageClimate Change Impact on GW Storage

Less recharge will mean less storage of groundwater in an aquifer.

When groundwater is removedfrom storage of aquiferfrom storage of aquifer with less recharge, water levels in the aquifer will drop in multiple q p porders.

28

Impact of less recharge Impact of less recharge

A long‐term decline in groundwater storageA long‐term decline in groundwater storage.

Increased frequency and severity of groundwater q y y gdroughts.

Hi h i f llHigher concentration of pollutants.

Saline intrusion in coastal aquifersSaline intrusion in coastal aquifers, due to sea level rise and drop inwater levels.

29

Climate Change in Palestine: Some results f h SUSMAQ P jfrom the SUSMAQ Project

Variability of rainfall is crucial for recharge

• spatial: topography, permeability of surface

• temporal: intensity, seasonality

Major concerns for future recharge:

• climate change: global warming

• observed downward trend in annual rainfall

30

Background – observed trends (1961-90)Background observed trends (1961 90)

DecreasingDecreasing

IncreasingIncreasing

31

Background – global warmingBackground global warming

C di i fCurrent predictions are for:• decreases in annual rainfall by the 2050s • increase in temperatures, causing higher losses from evaporation

• changes in snow accumulation and melt

A possible further issue is the effect of variationsin rainfall intensity on groundwater recharge. y g g

32

Available rainfall dataAvailable rainfall data

Daily stationsDaily stations 7878

Monthly stationsMonthly stations 110110

Annual stationsAnnual stations 110110

33

Available DataAvailable Data

• Annual, monthly and daily stations

#

#

#

#

#

#

##

##

# ##

# # ###

# ###

#

D2

D11

D13

D18

D19D20

D21D22

D23D24

D25 D26D27

D28 D29 D30

D31D32

D33D34

D77M21

M22N60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 180000 200000 220000 240000

200000 200000

220000 220000

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#

#

# ##

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#

#

####

# ## #

##

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## #

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D3

D4

M6

D14

D34D35 D36D37

D39D41

D42

D43D44D45

D46

D47 D48D49 D50

D51D52

D53 D54D55

D56 D57

D58

D59D60 D61

D69M13

M20

M21

M29

M30

160000 160000

180000 180000

#

#

# ##

####

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#

#

#

#

#

#

#

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##

D5

M1

D17

D61D62

D64D65D66

D67

D68

D70

D71D72

D73

D78

M19

M23

M26

M27

M28 M32

120000 120000

140000 140000

#

#

##

#

#

#

#

#

#

M3

D73

D74D75

D76

M10

M24

M25

M31

60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 180000 200000 220000 240000

80000 80000

100000 100000

34

60 0 60 120 Kilometers


• Annual average rainfall – fitted surface for the period 61‐90

Border line40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 180000 200000

Fitted (61-90)50 - 100100 - 150150 - 200200 - 250250 - 300300 350

N

000 180

2000

00

200000

300 - 350350 - 400400 - 450450 - 500500 - 550550 - 600600 - 650

1600

00

160000

180 000

600 650650 - 700700 - 750750 - 800800 - 850850 - 900900 - 95012

0000

120000

1400

00

140000

950 - 1000No Data

1000

00

100000

35

40 0 40 80 Kilometers40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 180000 200000


• Location of the daily rainfall stations adopted for the spatial correlation analysis

36


l f d l f ll l d d f h l d f ll• Correlation of daily rainfall plotted against distance for the selected rainfall stations in the WB. (A comparison with the Portuguese case)

y = 0.836e-0.0077xR2 = 0 740 8

1.0

on .

R = 0.74

0.6

0.8

Cor

rela

tio

0.4

Pear

son

0.20 20 40 60 80 100 120

37

Distance (km)

Trends in annual rainfall Trends in annual rainfall

3 200

.Jordan (Ma'an)1.5

Jordan (Ma'an)

0

1

2

CD

M 100

150

al R

ainf

all (

mm

) .

0.0

0.5

1.0

DEV

-2

-1

1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 19860

50

Ann

ua

-1.0

-0.5

1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986

1

2

1200

1500

(mm

) .

Jerusalem

0.5

1.0Jerusalem

-1

0

CD

M

300

600

900A

nnua

l Rai

nfal

l

-0.5

0.0DEV

-21961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996

0

A

-1.01961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996

38


1

2 600

m) .

Tammun Primary School1.0

1.5Tammun Primary School

1

0

1

CD

M

200

400

nual

Rai

nfal

l (m

m

0.0

0.5

DEV

-2

-1

1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 19860

Ann

-1.0

-0.5

1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986

1

2

1200

1500

l (m

m) .

'Atarah

0.5

1.0'Atarah

-1

0

CD

M

300

600

900A

nnua

l Rai

nfal

l

-0.5

0.0DEV

-21961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996

0

A

-1.01961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996

39


1

2

1200

1500

mm

) .

'Bait Dajan

0 5

1.0'Bait Dajan

-1

0

1

CD

M

600

900

nnua

l Rai

nfal

l (m

-0.5

0.0

0.5

DEV

-2

1

1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 19860

300 An

-1.0

0.5

1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986

0

1

2

1200

1500

(mm

) .

Dair Debwan1.0

1.5Dair Debwan

-3

-2

-1

0

CD

M

300

600

900A

nnua

l Rai

nfal

l (

-0.5

0.0

0.5

DEV

-4

-3

1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 19860

A

-1.01961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986

40


1

2

1200

1500

m) .

Ya'bad School

0 5

1.0Ya'bad School

1

0

1

CD

M

600

900

1200

nual

Rai

nfal

l (m

m

0 5

0.0

0.5

DEV

-2

-1

1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 19860

300 Ann

-1.0

-0.5

1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986

1

2

1200

1500

(mm

) .

Qaffeen Boys School1.0

1.5Qaffeen Boys School

-1

0

CD

M

300

600

900

Ann

ual R

ainf

all

-0.5

0.0

0.5

DEV

-21961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986

0

A

-1.01961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986

41

Cumulative departure from the mean (CDM) Cumulative departure from the mean (CDM)

2

1

M

JEENSAFUT SCHOOL

'AZZUN SCHOOL

DAIR ISTYAH

-1

0

CD

M DAIR ISTYAH

'AQRABAH SCHOOL

BIDYA SECONDARYSCHOOL

-21961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 2

'ATARAH

0

1

CD

MAL MAZRA'AH ALSHARQIYYAH SCHOOLSALFEET

QRAIT PRIMARYSCHOOL

-2

-1

QRAIT PRIMARY SCHOOL

DAIR GHASSANAH

42

21961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986

Seasonal pattern of rainfall over the 3 decades Seasonal pattern of rainfall over the 3 decades

120

150

m)

NorthSouth

90

Ave

rage

(mm

61-70

30

60

Mon

thly

A 61-70 71-80

81-90

0

30

Oct ov ec an eb Mar Apr ay Oct ov ec an eb Mar Apr ay Oct ov ec an eb Mar Apr ayOct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar AprMay Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar AprMay Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar AprMay

43

Monthly mean rainfall for the four recent decades

15061-7071-80

100

p (m

m)

81-9091-98

50sum

prp

0Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May

44

Proportion of wet days for the four recent decades

4061-7071-80

30

%)

81-9091-98

20

PW (%

0

10


45

Mean Wet Day Average for the four recent decades

15

20

y)

61-7071-8081 90

10

15

mm

/wet

day 81-90

91-99

5

10

MW

DA

(m


46

Proportion of days with rainfall greaterthan 10 mm

4061-7071-80

30

(%)

71 8081-9091-98

20

PW10

(

10


47

Annual trend observed for the period of 61-90

40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 180000 200000#

#Y#Y

###Y#

#Y#Y#Y#Y#Y #Y#Y# #Y #Y

#Y#Y#Y # #####Y #Yر#Y

#Y AT 61-90# 20 3 5

Border lineN

00

18

2000

00

200000

#ر

#Y# ###Y#

# #Y#Y##Y#Y#Y#Y

ر

ر #Yر##Y

#Y

# -20 - -3.5# -3.5 - -2.5# -2.5 - -1.5# -1.5 - -0.5

0 5 0 5

1600

00

160000

1800

0000

Y#ر #Y#Y

ر

ر ر

#Y#

ر

#Y -0.5 - 0.5ر 0.5 - 1.5ر 1.5 - 2.5ر 2.5 - 3.512

0000

120000

1400

00

140000

#Y #

#

ر

#Y#

#Y

ر 3.5 - 20

1000

00

100000

40 0 40 80 Kilometers40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 180000 200000

48

Annual trend observed for the periodof 81-90

ر##

#N40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 180000 200000

#####

## ### #Y#ر # ####Y # ### ## ###Y##

ر# #Y##

#Y AT 81-90# -20 - -3.5

3 5 2 5

Border lineN

1800

00

180000

2000

00

200000ر #Y###

# #####Y## #

# ##Y#Y#

ر## ر

#

# -3.5 - -2.5# -2.5 - -1.5# -1.5 - -0.5#Y -0.5 - 0.500

0 14

1600

00

160000

1 0

#

#

#ر

#Y#Y #

#

0 5 0 5ر 0.5 - 1.5ر 1.5 - 2.5ر 2.5 - 3.5

3 5 20

1200

00

120000

1400

0000

#Y

#Y

#Y

# #Y

ر 3.5 - 20

40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 180000 200000

1000

00

100000

40 0 40 80 Kilometers40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 180000 200000

49

Future Climate Modelling Rainfall in Palestine Future Climate – Modelling Rainfall in Palestine

• Future climate predictions derived from output from HadCM3:

the Hadley Centre coupled ocean‐atmosphere General Circulation Model (GCM).

O t t i d id f 300 k 300 k i• Output is averaged across grid‐squares of 300 km x 300 km in size

• Rainfall output is indicative only

50

The nearest GCM grid points in the study region

# #

3 4

#

1 2

5

N# #1 2

400 0 400 Kilometers

51

GCM grid point 1GCM grid point 1

80

Lon= 33.75; Lat=30.070

80

GCM 61-90

GCM 21-50

50

60

fall (mm)

30

40

erage Rainf

10

20

Ave

0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

52


Lon= 37.5; Lat=30.070

80

GCM 61-90

GCM 21-50

50

60

all (mm)

30

40

verage Rainf

10

20

Av

0


53


Lon= 33.75; Lat=32.570

80

GCM 61-90

GCM 21-50

50

60

fall (mm)

30

40

Average Rain

10

20

A

0


54


80

Lon= 37.5; Lat=32.5

60

70

GCM 61-90

GCM 21-50

50

60

nfall (mm)

30

40

Average Rain

10

20

A

0


55

Observed and GCM rainfall point 5Observed and GCM rainfall – point 5

180

200

GCM 61-90

140

160

180

(mm)

GCM 61 90

GCM 21-50

Observed

100

120

Rainfall (

40

60

80

Average

0

20

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov DecJan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

56

Observed annual rainfall (1961 90)(1961-90)

35 36

Observed 61-900 - 5050 - 100100 150

Border line

GCM future annual rainfall 100 - 150150 - 200200 - 250250 - 300300 - 350350 - 400400 - 450450 - 500

32 32

GCM future annual rainfall (2021-50)

50 500500 - 550550 - 600

N

Border line

35 36

30 0 30 60 Miles35 36

GC M 21-500 - 5050 - 100100 - 150150 - 200200 - 250250 - 300300 - 350

32 32

300 350350 - 400400 - 450450 - 500500 - 550550 - 600

N

5730 0 30 60 Mile s35 36

Remarks about modelling rainfall in Palestine Remarks about modelling rainfall in Palestine

1. Spatial and temporal variability of rainfall1. Spatial and temporal variability of rainfall

A stochastic space‐time rainfall model is required to generateA stochastic space time rainfall model is required to generate rainfall with required spatial and temporal resolutions

58

Remarks (continued)Remarks (continued)

2 T d i i f ll2. Trends in rainfall

Significant evidence of trends in past rainfall occurrenceSignificant evidence of trends in past rainfall occurrence, amounts and intensities; downwards trend in last decade.

Predictions for GCMs indicate significant reductions in f ll d bWB rainfall and increases in evapotranspiration but

prediction at large scale.

The scale needs to be refined for accuracy.

59

Remarks (continued)Remarks (continued)

3. Climate and land use change impact assessmentg p

Causes of observed changes in rainfall not well understood: gpossible links between climate and land use changes (such as the Israeli National Carrier which diverted the Jordan River to the Negev).

Major changes in economy and agriculture likely; can impact rainfall.

60

West Bank PRECIS domainWest Bank PRECIS domain

61

Validation for Control for PRECIS: West Bank Rainfall

Average total precipitation per month (Oct to Sep) Graph showing observed data (dashed) and location (triangles) compared to

simulated ERA15 re-analysis results (solid lines) for grid boxes over the West Bank

62

y ( ) g(numbered)

Validation for Control for PRECIS: Coastal Rainfall

63

Validation for Control for PRECISValidation for Control for PRECIS

64

Future simulation from PRECISFuture simulation from PRECIS

Average total precipitation per monthAverage total precipitation per month

Comparisons of Observed , ERA15, Control and A2 Future

65

Land Use change simulation from PRECISLand Use change simulation from PRECIS

Land use change (precipitation)

a) ERA15-land use change simulation (nclab) b) Absolute differences (mm) for precipitation between ERA15 (nclah) and ERA15 land use change (nclab) simulations

66

( ) g ( )

Impacts and adaptationsImpacts and adaptations

• In general, most of the impacts of climate change areexpected to amplify projected impacts of anthropogenicstresses resulting from accelerated population growth and ahigher standard of living;higher standard of living;

Th l ti t ib ti f li t h t th ll• The relative contribution of climate change to the overallimpact is not known.

• Therefore, measures to reduce the overall impact are, bydefault adaptations to climate change whosedefault, adaptations to climate change, whoseimplementation represents a potential win‐win strategy.

67


• Increased rain intensity plus a reduction in overallprecipitation will diminish vegetation cover and increasesurface runoff and desertificationsurface runoff and desertification.

• Rainfed agricultural fields will become more saline from• Rainfed agricultural fields will become more saline fromincreased evapotranspiration.

• Measures for combating desertification, such as afforestation, and methods for rehabilitating and regenerating naturaland methods for rehabilitating and regenerating natural vegetation are also adaptations for climate change.

68


• Increased surface runoff will increase flash floods during peakwaterflows, damaging human structures and crops.

• Possible adaptations include water‐sensitive urban planningto reduce surface runoff and promote water infiltration intoto reduce surface runoff and promote water infiltration intothe soil, and conservation and rehabilitation of naturalvegetation in rural areas.g

69

Impacts and adaptations Impacts and adaptations

• Water supply may fall to 60% of current levels by 2100, due todi i i i li i i d d d ifsedimentation in reservoirs, salinization and reduced aquifer

recharge. Increased surface runoff will reduce aquiferrecharge; and sea level rise and the intrusion of seawater intorecharge; and sea level rise and the intrusion of seawater intothe coastal aquifer will further damage groundwater.

• The quality of stored water will degrade due to salinization,and the increased surface runoff will transport dissolvedppollutants to waters reservoirs, often causing algal blooms.

• Adaptation: water conservation, reuse of treated wastewater,desalination, cloud seeding etc will serve asfuture adaptations necessitated by climatechange. 70

Impacts and AdaptationsImpacts and Adaptations

• The need to collect and save water for drought years will increase withg ygreater temporal uncertainty. Sufficient adaptation includes better use ofrecycled water and use of additional water resources.

• In Palestine storage is still far from existence but in a few years timePalestine will face severe drought problems. It is unless we act now we willwork without planning.

• Better management of aquifer recharge through water‐sensitive urban• Better management of aquifer recharge through water‐sensitive urbanplanning may reduce surface runoff.

• Urban development greatly decreases aquifer recharge and increases thechances of flash flooding and decreases the quantity andquality of freshwater supplies. Using infiltration basinsq y pp greduces surface runoff and enables aquifer rechargeemploying relatively inexpensive measures. 71

Impacts and AdaptationsImpacts and Adaptations

• For example, roof‐collected water serves both to recharge the aquifer andto reduce the load of municipal drainage systems.to reduce the load of municipal drainage systems.

• Since natural vegetation traps soil moisture and reduces surface runoff,conservation of natural and man‐made forests may also serve as anadaptation to the projected increase in flash flooding due to climate‐change.

• Adaptation to more frequent flooding is improving drainage systems andfl d iti b l iflood‐sensitive urban planning.

72

Developing countries are the most vulnerable to climate changeto climate change

• Impacts are worse ‐ already more flood and drought prone and a large share of the economy is in climate

iti tsensitive sectors.

• Lower capacity to adapt because of a lack of financial• Lower capacity to adapt because of a lack of financial, institutional and technological capacity and access to knowledgeknowledge.

• Net market sector effects are expected to be negative in p gmost developing countries.

73

Thank youThank you

74

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