climate change - wet tropics

State of the Wet Tropics Report 2007 – 2008

Lem

uroi

d rin

gtai

l pos

sum

(Mike

Tren

erry)

Rain

fore

st an

d re

ef (K

erry

Trapn

ell)

in the Wet TropicsImpacts and Responses

Climate Change

S T A T E O F T H E W E T T R O P I C S R E P O R T 2 0 0 7 – 2 0 0 8

3

Table of Contents

Terms and abbreviations 4

Foreword 5

Executive summary 9

1. Introduction 13 1.1 International perspective 15

1.2 National perspective 16

1.3 Regional perspective 17

2. Wet Tropics regional climate projections 18

3. Impacts of climate change on the WTQWHA 22 3.1 Ecological and biological implications 25

of projected climate change

3.2 Effects of warming on higher altitude 27 habitats in the Wet Tropics

3.3 Effects of warming on Wet Tropics 28 higher altitude vertebrate fauna

3.4 Environmental goods and services 31

4. Management responses 34 4.1 Resilience 35

4.2 Regional planning, coordination and leadership 37

4.2.1 Integrating climate change into management 37

4.2.2 Coordination and alignment 38

4.2.3 Reducing emissions 39

4.2.4 Planning and development 40

4.2.5 Wet Tropics tourism 40

4.2.6 Maximising carbon market opportunities 41


4

4.3 Improving and communicating our knowledge 42 of the effects of climate change

4.3.1 Building regional capability and reducing uncertainty 42

4.3.2 Understanding social resilience 43

4.3.3 Establishment of climate change research centres 43

4.3.4 Monitoring 44

4.4 On-ground works to improve forest health 45

4.4.1 Managing environmental stress created by climate change 46

4.4.2 Managing landscape health in the face of climate change 47

4.4.3 Ecological site management 50

4.4.4 Species management 52

4.5 Increasing community awareness and 54 mobilising behavioural change

5. References 57

Terms and abbreviationsasl above sea level

CSIRO CommonwealthScientificandIndustrialResearchOrganisation

ENSO ElNiñoSouthernOscillation

FNQ FarNorthQueensland

JCU JamesCookUniversity

MTSRF MarineandTropicalSciencesResearchFacility

RRRC ReefandRainforestResearchCentre

TheArea TheWetTropicsofQueenslandWorldHeritageArea

TheAuthority TheWetTropicsManagementAuthority

UNESCO UnitedNationsEducational,ScientificandCulturalOrganisation

WTQWHA WetTropicsofQueenslandWorldHeritageArea


5

ForewordClimatechangeisamajorandinsidiousthreattotheecosystemsoftheWetTropicsofQueenslandWorldHeritageArea.Anticipatedchangestotemperature,rainfallandotherclimaticconditionswillcausemajorchangestoecosystemsandleadtothelossofmanyplantandanimalspeciesforwhichtheWetTropicswaslistedontheWorldHeritageregister.

ThisStateoftheWetTropicsReportfocusesontheimpactsofclimatechangeontheinternationallyrecognisedvaluesoftheWorldHeritageArea.Thereportsummarisesthelatestavailablescientificinformationaboutexpectedchangesintheforestsastheyrespondtoclimatechange.Itidentifiescurrentmanagementactionsbeingtakeninresponsetoclimatechangeandidentifiesopportunitiesforfurtheractionataregionalscale.

TheWetTropicsofQueenslandisanextraordinarilydiversenaturalasset.Thepresenceofrainforestsattheedgeofadrycontinentarisesfromararecombinationoffinelybalancedclimaticandtopographicfeatures.EvensmallchangesinclimatearelikelytohavesignificantadverseimpactsontheWorldHeritagevaluesoftheseforests.

Australia’sinternationalreputationforsustainablemanagementofitsnaturalheritageflowsfromitsperformanceinmanagingWorldHeritagepropertiessuchastheWetTropics.InjoiningtheWorldHeritageConvention,Australiaacceptedthatithasadutytoensureprotection,conservation,presentationandtransmissiontofuturegenerationsofitsWorldHeritagelistedproperties.Australiaalso

Andrew Maclean, WTMA executive director

View from Lambs’s Head


6

undertookto‘doallitcantothisend,totheutmostofitsownresources’(WorldHeritageConvention,Article4).

EffectiveresponsestoclimatechangeimpactsintheWetTropicshaverealeconomicbenefits.TropicalNorthQueenslandreceivesover2millioninternationalanddomesticvisitorseachyear.Thesevisitorsareprimarilydrawntotheregionbecauseofitsoutstandingnaturalfeatures,inparticular,theWorldHeritagerainforestsandreefs.InternationalvisitorsreturntotheirhomecountryhavingmadejudgementsaboutAustralia’senvironmentalmanagement.Theenvironmentalreputationoftouristdestinationsisanincreasinglyimportantfactorintouristdestinationplanningandspending.

BoththeAustralianandQueenslandGovernmentshaverecognisedthethreatofclimatechangeandbothgovernmentsaremobilisingresourcestocombatit.Thecurrentfocusofclimatechangepolicyatthenationalandstatelevelislargelyonmitigation.TheAustralianandQueenslandGovernmentsareleadingthesearchforwaystoreduceemissionsofgreenhousegasesthroughmeasuressuchasemissionstrading,supportfordevelopmentofalternativeenergysourcesandencouragingenergyconservationinhomesandbusinesses.Allofthesemeasuresareimportanttoreducetheglobalextentofclimatechange.

Whilereducinggreenhousegasemissionsisclearlyimportantatthenationalandglobalscale,ataregionalleveltheemphasismustbeonadaptingtoanticipatedclimatechanges,inadditiontosharingresponsibilityforreducingemissions.ThisrequireschangesinthewaywemanageourWorldHeritageforeststomakethemmoreresilienttothethreatofelevatedtemperatures,changingrainfallpatternsandgreaterclimaticvariability.InaddressingthethreatofclimatechangeonWorldHeritageproperties,UNESCOhasrecommendedthatWorldHeritagepropertiesserveaslaboratorieswheremonitoring,mitigationandadaptationprocessescanbeapplied,testedandimproved.

Nature based tourism

Pho

to: T

Q


7

Putsimply,thebestwaytomaketheforestsoftheWetTropicsresilienttotheanticipatedadverseimpactsofclimatechangeistoensurethattheyarehealthy.Thismeansreducingoreliminatingotherthreatstoforesthealthsuchasweeds,feralanimalsanddisease;fragmentationandisolation;inappropriatefireregimes;andotherimpactsofhumanuseinandaroundtheWorldHeritageArea.

EnsuringtheWetTropicsforestsarehealthyisalreadyacoregoalofmanagement.However,thethreatofclimatechangemeansthatwemustaccelerateourprogressandensureweconsidertheresponseofforestecosystemstofutureaswellascurrentclimaticconditions.ThroughtheWetTropicsManagementAuthorityanditspartneragencies,andwiththesupportofcommunity,industryandregionallandowners,theinstitutionsandprocessesrequiredtoimplementchangearealreadymostlyinplace.Withappropriateinvestment,rapidandeffectiveactionispossible.

MakingtheWetTropicsresilienttotheanticipatedeffectsofclimatechangerequiresworkinfourkeyareas:on-groundworkstoimproveforesthealth;improvingandcommunicatingourknowledgeoftheeffectsofclimatechange;increasingcommunityawarenessandmobilisingbehaviouralchange;andregionalplanning,coordinationandleadership.

ThisreporthighlightsthemagnitudeoftheclimatechangeriskfortheWorldHeritageArea.Itestablishesaframeworkthat,withappropriategovernmentandcommunitysupport,willgiveusthebestchanceofmaintainingtheoutstandinguniversalvaluesoftheAreaforAustraliaandtheworld.

AndrewMacleanExecutiveDirectorWetTropicsManagementAuthority

Rainforest at Cow Bay


9

Executive summaryClimatechangecreatesmajorrisksfortheWetTropicsofQueenslandWorldHeritageArea(WTQWHA,theArea).ThisreportidentifiesthekeyvaluesoftheAreathatarevulnerabletoclimatechangeandexplainshowpredictedchangesinrainfall,temperatureandotherclimaticvariableswillaffectthese.Itidentifiesaseriesofactionsthat,withsufficientpublicandprivateinvestment,mayincreasetheresilienceoftheregiontotheanticipatedimpactsofclimatechange.

TheWorldHeritageCommitteeofUNESCOidentifiedtheWTQWHAashavingoutstandinguniversalvalueandintegrity.TheArea’sdiverselandformssupportanextraordinaryassemblageofplantsandanimals.DespitecomprisingonlyaverysmallproportionoftheAustraliancontinent.TheAreasupportsahighproportionofAustralianfloraandfauna,reflectingthediversityandbiologicalproductivityofitsecosystems.

ThedistinctiveanddiverseassemblagesofplantsandanimalsintheWetTropicsaretheresultoffinelybalancedclimaticconditionsthat,inturn,areduetothelatitudeandtopographyoftheregionanditsproximitytoeasterlywindscarryingmoisturefromthePacificOcean.Climatechangethreatenstodisrupttheseclimaticconditionsandmayresultinrapidandcatastrophicchangestotheregionalenvironmentthatwilllimittheextentofrainforestsandleadtotheextinctionofmanyoftheregion’sfaunaandflora.

ThevulnerabilityoftheWetTropicstoclimatechangehasbeenwidelyrecognised.TheWorldHeritageCentre,whichadministerstheWorldHeritageConvention,hasidentifiedtheWTQWHAasasiteatparticularriskfromevensmallchangesintemperature.UNESCOhasproposedthatWorldHeritagesitessuchastheWetTropicscouldserveasvaluablelaboratoriestostudytheimpactsofclimatechangeandtheeffectivenessofmanagementresponses.The

Pho

to: K

erry

Tra

pnel

l

Rainforest, Mount Lewis


10

AustralianGovernment,intherecentlycompletedCarbonPollutionReductionSchemeGreenPaper[52],acknowledgedtheparticularthreatclimatechangeposesfortheWetTropics.TheQueenslandGovernmenthasalsoacknowledgedthethreattotheWetTropicsandhasestablishedclimatechangeasakeypolicydriverintherecentlyreleasedFarNorthQueenslandDraftRegionalPlan2025[11].Thislevelofrecognitionprovidesagoodbasisforinvestmentinthemeasuresrequiredtoeffectivelyrespondtotheidentifiedrisks.

ClimateprojectionsfortheWetTropicsindicatethemagnitudeofchangethattheregion’secosystemsmayencounter.Temperaturemayincreaseby1.4ºCby2030and4.2ºCby2070underhighemissionscenarios.Rainfallispredictedtobecomemoreseasonalwithawetterwetseasonandalonger,drierdryseason.Cycloneintensityispredictedtobegreater,creatingrisksofmorefrequentmajorecosystemdisruptionaswitnessedafterCycloneLarry.TheElNiñophenomenonispredictedtooccurmorefrequently,causingmorefrequentdroughtsandincreasingtheriskofbushfire,withconsequentdamagetorainforests.

ClimatechangesofthismagnitudewillhavesevereandinteractingeffectsonthevaluesoftheWTQWHA.Wecananticipatechangesintheabundanceanddistributionoffloraandfauna.Interactionsbetweenorganisms,suchaspredatorpreyrelationshipsandinsectpollination,arelikelytobedisrupted,creatingconsequentchangesinecosystemcomposition,structureandfunction.

ManyofthehighlyvaluedendemicspeciesoftheAreaareconfinedtothehigher,coolerpartsoftheregion.Modellingindicatesthatwith2ºCwarmingtheproportionoftheAreawithameanannualtemperatureof22ºCorlesswillmarkedlyreduce,diminishingtheproportionsuitableforthesethermallysensitivefauna.Thiswillsubstantiallyincreasetheriskofextinctionforseveralhighelevationendemicwildlifespecies.

DisruptionofecosystemsandchangedclimaticconditionswillmaketheAreamorevulnerabletoweed,feralanimalanddiseaseinvasion.Weedspeciesthatmaynotbeabletoinvadenativeecosystemsatpresentmaygainacompetitiveadvantageunderthewarmerdrierconditionsthatareexpected.Theriskofnewvertebrateandinsectpestsandplantandanimaldiseasesisalsolikelytoincrease.

Impacts of Cyclone Larry at Bicton Hill


11

Cloudstrippingisasignificantsourceoffreshwaterintheregion.Temperatureincreasesarelikelytocauseariseinthealtitudeofthecloudlayer,reducingtheareawherecloudstrippingcanoccuranddiminishingcatchmentrunoff.Reducedstreamflowswillhaveecologicalimpactsandwillalsoreducetheamountofwateravailableforirrigationandurbanwatersupply.

Climatechangewillalsocompromiseotherenvironmentalgoodsandservices.Forexample,ifthelossofrainforestvaluesbecomesobvious,theAreamaybecomelessattractivefortourists,creatingsignificanteconomicimpactsintheregion.

WhiletheoutlookfortheWTQWHAisacauseforgreatconcern,muchcanbedoneataregionalleveltoadapttotheanticipatedchanges.ThemostimportantmanagementinterventionswillbethosethatbuildecologicalresilienceinandaroundtheArea.Thefollowingfourbroadareasofactivityareproposed:

On-ground works to improve forest health –• Theprincipalmeansofachievingecosystemresilienceistobuildandmaintainecosystemhealth.Measuressuchaswildlifecorridors,limitingfurtherclearing,rehabilitationofpreviouslyclearedareas,protectingimportanthabitatrefugesandmanagingthethreatofenvironmentalpestswillallassisttostrengthenWetTropicsecosystemsagainstclimatechange.

Improving and communicating our knowledge of the effects of climate •change –RegionalresearchinstitutionssuchasCSIROandJamesCookUniversity(JCU)withsupportfromtheMarineandTropicalSciencesResearchFacility(MTSRF),havemadegoodprogressinunderstandingthe

Daintree rainforests

Pho

to: K

erry

Tra

pnel

l


12

impactofclimatechangeintheArea.Moreworkisneededtoimprove,refineandcommunicatecurrentknowledge.ThereareopportunitiestocapitaliseonregionalresearchcapabilitythroughestablishmentofaCentreforClimateChangeAdaptationatJCUthatwoulddeliverinformationtomanagersandpolicymakerstoimproveadaptationresponses.

Increasing community awareness and mobilising behavioural change •– PrivatelandmanagerscanmakeamajorcontributiontotheadaptationworkintheWetTropics.Landandenvironmentagenciesneedtoprovideleadershipbyincreasingcommunityawarenessoftherisksofclimatechangeandhelpingcommunitiestofindregionallyrelevantwaysofadapting.Improvedlandmanagementpracticesshouldbesupportedthroughtechnicaladvice,incentivesandappropriatelandandresourcemanagementpolicies.Communitiesmustbeappropriatelyengagedindecision-makingaffectingtheirownlandorpubliclandssuchasthoseintheWTQWHA.

Regional planning, coordination and leadership• –Thisworkaimstocoordinateandaligntheeffortsofregionallandandenvironmentagenciesandprivatelandmanagerstoensureresourcesarewelltargetedandeffortisappropriatelyalignedwithagreedpriorities.Regionalinstitutionsandcommunitiesalreadyhavetheunderlyingcapabilitytotakeactionagainstclimatechangeifsupportedwithadequateresources.

Promoting cassowary habitat with Cassowary Country signs

Tree planting in the Daintree


13

1. IntroductionClimatechangepresentsanimmediateandurgentchallengeforbiodiversityconservationintheWetTropicsregion.Thetransformationofmuchoftheenvironmentbyagriculture,urbanisationandindustryhascreated,andcontinuestocreate,awiderangeofunintentionalexperimentsinwhichtheregion’swildlifeareexposedtosevereandnovelpressurestowhichtheywilleitherhavetoadaptorceasetoexist.Thegreatestoftheseexperimentsisnowunderway–thealterationoftheatmosphereandclimateoftheearth,withconsequencesforeverylivingthing.InthisreportweattempttosketchoutthemaintasksthattheAuthorityconsiderstheregionneedstoundertaketorespondtothischallenge.

TheforestsoftheWetTropicsofQueenslandWorldHeritageArea(WTQWHA,theArea)owetheirgenesistolong-termcyclesofchangeinclimate.Itmayseemironicthen,thatclimatechangeisnowregardedasthesinglebiggestthreattothefutureoftheoutstandinguniversalvaluesandintegrityforwhichtheAreawasinscribedontotheWorldHeritagelistin1988[1].

TheAreaisalarge(894,420ha),rugged,centralspineofthe1,976,000haWetTropicsbioregionwhichextendsfromnearCooktowninthenorthtonearTownsvilleinthesouthandborderstheGreatBarrierReefWorldHeritageAreaalongaconsiderablepartofthecoastline.Theregion’seconomydependslargelyontourismgeneratedfromtheattractionofitstwoWorldHeritageAreas.

Inthepastfewyearstherehasbeenaremarkableincreaseinthelevelofawarenessofclimatechangeworldwide.Concernsaboutcausesandeffectshavemovedbeyondtherealmofscientificdebatetothelivingroomsofpeopleeverywhere.Asevidenceaccumulates

Pho

to: K

erry

Tra

pnel

l

Reef and rainforest - two World Heritage Areas


14

thatawarmingplanetwillcausewidespreadandmostlyharmfuleffects,scientistsandpolicymakershaveproposedvariousmitigationstrategiesthatmightreducetherateofclimatechange–anationalandinternationalresponseforthoseofficialsingovernmentwhomustplannowforanuncertainfuture.However,strategiesforadaptingtoclimatechangeataregionallevelareequallyimportant.

Althoughtheoptionsavailablefortakingadaptiveactionhavebecomebetterdefinedovertime,adaptationplanningcontinuestoinvolvemanyuncertainties.Nevertheless,itisimperativethat,inaregionasinternationallyimportantastheWetTropics,wetakeimmediateproactivestepstoincreasetheprobabilityofourbiodiversitysurviving.Wecannotbecomplacent,wehavetoomuchtolose.

TheWTQWHAisalivingmuseumcontainingoneofthemostcompleteanddiverselivingrecordsofthemajorstagesintheevolutionoflandplantsintheworld.Itconservesalargelyintactfloraandfaunawithhundredsoflocallyendemicspeciesrestrictedwithinitsboundaries.ItalsoprovidestheonlyhabitatformorerareorthreatenedspeciesandprimitiveplantsandanimalsthananywhereelseinQueensland.TheWetTropicsregion,asawhole,conserves41%ofallQueensland’svascularplantspeciesinslightlyover1%oftheState’slandarea.WithintheAustraliancontext,theWetTropicsregionisaverydistinctivebioclimaticandlandformunitwithexceptionallysteepanddiverseenvironmental

gradientsandcontainsthecountry’sgreatestvariationintopographicalrelief.SomeappreciationoftheimportanceandspeciesrichnessoftheWetTropicsbioregioncanbegainedfromthecontributionitmakestoAustralia’soverallbiodiversity.

Ravenshoe

Cooktown

Cairns

TownsvilleLegend

World Heritage Area

Bioregion

Date Produced : 6 Sept 2005Reference : j3852

The WTQWHA and the Wet Tropics bioregion

Pho

to: M

ike

Tren

erry

Blue ghost moth


15

AlthoughtheWetTropicscomprisesonly0.26%ofthetotalareaoftheAustraliancontinentitsbiodiversitysignificanceisenormous,beinghomeforthefollowingpercentagesofAustralia’sspecies[2]:

TheWetTropicsisalsocharacterisedbyaverylargenumberofrestrictedendemicspecieswhosetotalworld-widedistributionisconfinedtotheregion–insomeinstancestoasinglelocationwithintheregionsuchasamountainsummitorasmallsub-catchment.

1.1 International perspectiveTheissueoftheimpactsofclimatechangeonWorldHeritagepropertieswasbroughttotheattentionoftheWorldHeritageCommitteein2005byagroupofconcernedorganisationsandindividuals.TroubledaboutthepotentialforclimatechangetoadverselyaffectandthreatentheoutstandinguniversalvaluesandintegrityofWorldHeritageproperties,theWorldHeritageCommitteetaskedtheWorldHeritageCentreofUNESCOanditsadvisorybodies,toundertakefurtherinvestigationoftheissue.TheCommitteeendorsedtheresultingreports,PredictingandManagingtheEffectsofClimateChangeonWorldHeritage[3]andStrategytoAssistStatesPartiestoImplementAppropriateManagementResponses[4],asofficialdocumentsin2006.

TheCommitteesubsequentlyrequestedtheWorldHeritageCentretodevelopapolicydocumentontheimpactsofclimatechangeonWorldHeritageproperties.ThepolicydocumentwasadoptedbytheGeneralAssemblyofStatesPartiesin2007[5,6].ThepolicydocumentencouragesmanagersofWorldHeritagepropertiestoincludeclimatechangemessagesintheircommunication,educationandinterpretationactivitiesasappropriate;andtobuildpublicawarenessandknowledgeofclimatechange,itspotentialimpactsonWorldHeritageproperties

Pho

to: J

ason

McC

all

Bowenia spectabilis

vascularplants(26%)•fernspecies(65%) –cycadspecies(21%) –coniferspecies(37%) –orchidspecies(30%) –

birdspecies(40%)•frogspecies(29%)•

mammals(35%)•marsupialspecies(30%) –batspecies(58%) –rodentspecies(25%) –

reptilespecies(20%)•freshwaterfishspecies(42%)•butterflyspecies(58%).•


16

andtheirvalues,andactivitiesoravailableoptionsforadaptationandmitigation.ThisreporthasbeenpreparedtoprovidesuchamessageabouttheimpactsofclimatechangeontheWTQWHAandoptionsforadaptation.

Thepolicydocument[6]reiteratedthattheprimaryobjectiveofWorldHeritagemanagementistosafeguardtheoutstandinguniversalvaluesandintegrityofWorldHeritageproperties.ThedocumentalsorecommendedthatWorldHeritagepropertiesserveaslaboratorieswheremonitoring,mitigationandadaptationprocessescanbeapplied,testedandimproved,since actions taken at these iconic propertiesattractworld-wideattentionandcaninfluencetheadoptionofgoodmanagementpracticeselsewhere.

In2007theWorldHeritageCentrepublishedanumberofcasestudiesonclimatechange[7].TheWTQWHAwasidentifiedasoneofthesitesatparticularriskfromevenasmallincreaseintemperature.ThiswasprimarilyduetotheverylargepredicteddeclinesinrangesizeforalmosteveryendemicvertebratefaunalspeciesfoundintheArea.

1.2 National perspectiveQueensland’sWetTropics,alongwiththeGreatBarrierReef,theAustralianAlps,andSouthwestWesternAustralia,haveconsistentlybeenidentifiedinseveralnationalandstatereportsasbeingatparticularriskofbiodiversitylossfromclimatechange[8,9,10].ResearchcommissionedbytherecentGarnautClimateChangeReview[51]notedthattheWetTropicswasamonganumberofWorldHeritagepropertiesinAustraliaunderthreat.TheAustralianGovernment’srecentCarbonPollutionReductionSchemeGreenPaper[52]alsoacknowledgedtheseriousimpactthatclimatechangeislikelytohaveontheWTQWHA.ConcernabouttheimpactsofclimatechangeintheWetTropicsonthenation’sbiodiversityishighlightedinmanysectionsoftherecentOfficeofClimateChangereport,ClimateChangeinQueensland:whatthescienceistellingus[50].

Selaginella species


17

1.3 Regional perspectiveProtectionoftheregion’snaturalvaluesdependsnotonlyoneffectivelyadaptingtotheimpactsofclimatechange,butalsoonthetypeofregionaldevelopmentpaththatispursued.TheWetTropicsregionhasexperiencedasteadyincreaseinpopulationgrowthoverrecentdecades,averaginghigherthanthenationalgrowthrate[11].Impactsonthenaturalenvironmentarelikelytocontinueincreasingalongwithpopulationgrowth.Itwill,therefore,benecessaryforclimatechangeadaptationresponsestobeviewedinthewidercontextofregionalsustainabledevelopmenteffortssuchasespousedintheFarNorthQueenslandDraftRegionalPlan2025[11].AnyproposedregionalresponsesaimedatreducingthevulnerabilityofthevaluesandintegrityoftheAreamustbedesignedandimplementedinthislargerregionallandscapecontext.TheAreashouldbeconsideredasthecorefocalareawithinafunctioningregionalnetworkofnaturalandsemi-naturalareas.TheprotectionandmanagementoftheAreamustbeapproachedfromawhole-of-regionlandscapeperspective.

Urban development, Mission Beach


18

2. Wet Tropics regional climate projections

Cyclone Larry

Pho

to: B

urea

u of

Met

eoro

logy

SummaryTheWetTropicscanexpectawarmer,drierfuture.1.

Althoughwetseasonrainfallislikelytoincreaseformostyears,this2.willbecounteredbyanincreaseinthefrequencyofElNiñodroughtyears,resultinginreducedwetseasonrainfallduringtheseElNiñoperiods.

Moreintenserainfalleventsincludinghigherintensitycyclonesare3.likely.

Increasedtemperatureswillresultincorrespondingincreasesin4.evaporationandtranspiration.

Sealevelsarerisingandanincreaseintheareaoflowlandsaffected5.bystormsurgeandsaltwaterintrusionandinundationisexpected.


19

CSIROhasbeendevelopingtoolsandmethodstopredictclimatechangetrendsatascalerelevantfortheWetTropicsandtheGreatBarrierReefregions.ThisisbeingundertakenthroughaprogramofresearchlinkedtotheMarineandTropicalSciencesResearchFacility(MTSRF)[12]administeredinNorthQueenslandbytheReefandRainforestResearchCentre(RRRC)[13].CSIROhasidentifiedanumberofpossibleoutcomesbasedontheresultsof15differentglobalclimatemodels[14].Predictingthemagnitude,rateandspatialpatternofclimatechangeisverycomplexandscenariosforareasassmallastheWetTropicsregioncontainadegreeofuncertainty.Thesemodels,therefore,shouldnotberegardedasforecastsbut,rather,asindicationsofthelikelydirectionsandmagnitudeofchangebasedonthebestcurrentinformation.Thewisestapproachistousetheseprojectionstoassesstheadditionalriskthatchangesonthisscalecouldpose.

SomeoftheprojectionsfortheWetTropicsbasedontheresultsofthesemodelsarelistedbelow[14].

Temperature (compared to 1990 temperatures)2030

Anincreaseof0.5ºCforlowemissionscenario•

Anincreaseof1.4ºCforhighemissionscenario•

2070

Anincreaseof1.0ºCforlowemissionscenario•

Anincreaseof4.2ºCforhighemissionscenario•

Anincreaseinthefrequencyofextremetemperatureperiods(daysabove•35ºC)fromthecurrentannualaverageofthreedaystoupto41daysby2070.

RainfallRegionalrainfallshowsadecreasingtrendoverthelastcenturyandthis•trendisstrongerafter1950

Overalldrierandmoreseasonalconditionsfortheregionarelikely,•characterisedbyalongeranddrierdryseason

Rainfallvariabilityisexpectedtobehigherfromyeartoyear,especiallyfor•the wet seasons

Rainfallisexpectedtoincreaseslightlyinthewetseason,dependingonthe•stateandfrequencyoftheElNiñoSouthernOscillation(ENSO)

Rainfallisexpectedtodecreasemarkedlyinthelatedryseason•

TherewillbeanincreaseinthefrequencyofElNiñoeventsresultingin•lowerrainfallandlongerdryseasons[15].


20

2030Changesinrainfallof-6%to+5%annually•

-5%to+4%wetseason(January–March)•

-16%to+2%dryseason(August–October)•

2070

Changesinrainfallof-19%to+14%annually•

-16%to+13%wetseason(January–March)•

-50%to+7%dryseason(August–October).•

Climatic eventsModelsindicateanincreaseinthefrequencyandseverityofextreme•weatherconditionssuchasheatwaves,floods,droughtsanddestructivestorms[15]

Tropicalcyclonesareprojectedtoincreaseinmaximumintensity(+5%to•+10%inmaximumwindspeedand+20%to+30%increaseinmaximumprecipitationby2030),butshowlittlechangeintheirregionofformationornumber(whichishighlydependantuponchangestoENSO)[14]

Ariseinthealtitudeofthecloudbaseispredicted,resultinginaretarding•ofthecloudstrippingabilityoftheregion’suplandrainforests.Theseuplandrainforestscurrentlyderiveupto30%oftheirtotalannualprecipitationfrominterceptingthecloudlayer[16].Ariseinthecloudbasewould

Josephine Falls


21

therebyreducethetotaleffectivetransferofwaterfromtheatmospheretotheregion’sterrestrialsystemswithseriousimpactsonhydrology,ecosystemprocessesandbiodiversity[17].

Coastal areasAriseinsealevelsof3cmto17cmby2030ispredicted,increasingto18cm•to59cmby2100dependinguponthenatureoflocalcoastalrelief[15]

Anincreaseintheintensityofoceanicstormsurgescausedbybotharising•sealevelandmoreseverecyclonesresultingina20%to30%increaseinstormsurgeheight[18].

Cape Tribulation

Cloud forest

Pho

to: E

PA


22

3. Impacts of climate change on the WTQWHA

Copperlode Dam

Pho

to: E

PA

SummaryClimatechangewillhavesevereadverseimpactsonwildlifeandtheir1.habitatsaswellasonecosystemsandthegoodsandservicestheyprovidesociety.

Ingeneral,allnativespecieswillbemorevulnerable,eventhoseable2.totolerateclimaticchangesper se,astheywillallhavetodealwithavarietyofnewcompetitors,predators,diseasesandintroducedspeciesforwhichtheymayhavenonaturaldefence.

Itispredictedthatexistingecosystemswillundergomajorchanges.3.Somearelikelytodisappearentirely;sometotallynewornovelecosystemsmayappear;andotherswillexperiencedramaticchangesinspeciescompositionandgeographicextent.

Whilerainfalltotalsmaynotvarybymuchunderclimatechange,4.therecouldbesignificantchangestothevariabilityandseasonalityofrainfall.

Climatechangewilladverselyaffectarangeofenvironmentalgoods5.andservicesprovidedbytheWTQWHA.Forinstance,ariseincloudlevelswouldcauseasignificantdeclineincatchmentwateryieldsourcedfromcloudstripping,animportantsourceduringthedryseason.


23

ResearchshowsthatthebiodiversityoftheAreaishighlysensitivetoclimatechange[19,20,21].Thelocationandextentofrainforestsinparticulararelargelydeterminedbyrainfallanditsseasonality,whilethetypeofrainforestandmanyoftheorganismsfoundwithinarainforestdependuponnarrowtemperatureranges.Climatechangeimpactsuponbiodiversityatallitslevelsoforganisation,rangingfrombiological,ecosystemandecologicalimpactsthroughtopopulationlevelimpacts.

Theseimpactsresulteitherdirectlyfromclimatechange per se orindirectlythroughinteractionswithotherspeciesthatareaffectedbyclimatechange,leadingtochangesincompetition,food,habitatandpredationpatternsandprocesses.Forsomespeciestheseindirectimpactsmaybestrongerthandirectimpacts.Thiscascadeofclimatechangeimpactsalsointeractswithotherhumanpressuresonbiodiversitysuchashabitatdegradationandloss,waterextractionandregulationofflowregimes,pollutionandintroductionandspreadofpestspecies.Notonlydoclimatechangeimpactsaddtotheseotherpressures,theyalsointeract,alteringthewayspeciesandecosystemswouldotherwiserespondandadapt.

Biologicalimpactsincludedirectchangestoorganismssuchasphysiologicalandbehaviouralchanges,including:

differentialresponsesbydifferentspeciesinbothmagnitudeandtypeto•changingconditions

changesintimingofspecies’life-cyclessuchasfloweringandfruiting•(phenology).

Changeswillalsooccurtothecomposition,structure,functionandservicesofecosystemsincluding:

changesinnutrientcyclingandnaturalresourcesupplysuchwatercycles•

Bumpy satinash flowers

Pho

to: M

artin

Coh

en


24

changesinpredator-prey,parasite-host,plant-pollinatorandplant-disperser•relationships

changesinecosystemservicessuchaswatersupply,pestcontroland•pollination.

Ecologicalimpactsincludethosethatresultfromchangedinteractionsbetweenorganismsandtheirenvironment,therebyaffectingcommunitycompositionandconfiguration.Theyinclude:

changesinbreeding,establishment,growth,competitionandmortality•

changesinthelocationofspecies’habitatsresultinginrangeshiftsand/or•lossesduetorangeexpansions,contractionsandeliminations

increasedopportunityforrangeexpansionofinvasivepestspeciesincluding•weeds,feralanimals,pathogensandparasites

increasedopportunityforrangeexpansionofnativespecieswithextensive,•non-patchyranges,long-rangedispersalmechanisms,largepopulationsandhighgeneticdiversity

changesinthestructureandcompositionofecologicalcommunities•

formationofnovelcommunitiesbasedonnewspeciesassemblages.•

Populationimpactsrefertotheultimateimpactonspeciesintermsofchangesintheirabundanceanddistribution.Theyinclude:

changesinpresence/absenceandrelative/absoluteabundances•

differentialindividualspecies’responsestowarmeranddrier/moister•conditions

increasesintheriskofextinctionforspeciesthatarealreadyvulnerable•duetolimitedclimaticranges,limiteddispersalability,specialisedhabitatrequirements,smallpopulationsand/orlowgeneticdiversity.

Interactionswithothernaturalandartificialfactorsinclude:

changesintheintensity,frequencyandseasonalityofextremeeventssuch•ascyclones,floods,droughtsandfires

changesinhumanlanduse•pressures(synergieswithchangestolanduseandotherpopulationpressuresontheenvironment).

Pandanus on fire


25

3.1 Ecological and biological implications of projected climate change

Individualspeciescanexhibittwobasicresponses(inmanycombinations)toclimatechange.Theycanadapttonewconditionswithintheirexistingrangeortheycanmigratetolocationswheresuitableclimaticconditionspersist.Thecapacityofindividualspeciestoadopteitherofthesestrategieswillvary.

Species responses likely to be observedshiftsinspecies’ranges-bothlatitudinalandaltitudinal[20,21]•

changesinspecies’abundances(includinglocalextinctions)[22]•

changesinthelengthofaplantspecies’growingseason•

earlierfloweringinplants,earlieremergenceininsectsandearlieregg•layinginbirds[23,24]

changestothetimingandsequencingofflowering,fruitingandleafflush•ofplantscausingmanyflow-onimpactstospeciesdependentupontheseplants.

Ecological responses likely to be observedAreductioninthenutritionalvalueandanincreaseinthetoughnessofmost•foliageduetoincreasedCO2levels.Thiswillhavesignificantdetrimentaleffectsontheabundanceoffolivores(leaf-eaters)suchasendemicringtailpossumsandmanyinsects[25].

Changesintheclimate-controlleddistributionpatternsofarborealfolivores•will‘push’speciesoffnutrient-rich,basalticsoilsatmidaltitudesandontoincreasinglypoorergraniticsoilsatcooler,higherelevations[25].

Pho

to: M

ike

Tren

erry

Lemuroid ringtail possum


26

Raisedcloudbaseswillaffectspeciesrequiringhighandconsistentmoisture•levels[19],directlyaffectingsuspendedmossesandepiphytes,microhylidfrogs,litterskinks,soilinvertebratesandsoilmicrobes.

Plant and animal invasionsThereisariskoffocusingtoomuchonwhatwillbelostandnotenoughonwhatwillbegainedbecauseofclimatechange.Althoughmanyspeciesarelikelytobenegativelyaffectedbyclimatechange,thegreatestcommunityandecosystemimpactsmaycomefromthosenativeorexoticspeciesthatarefavouredbychangedconditionsandinteractwithotherspecies(forinstance,competitors,predatorsandinvasiveweeds)[26].Climatechangeispredictedtosignificantlyincreasethevulnerabilityofecosystemstoinvasionbyferalanimals,weedsandpathogens[27,28]andsomenativecolonistspecies.

Changes in fire regimes [28, 32] Firecontrolsmuchoftheboundarybetweenrainforestandsclerophyllforests[33].DuringtheElNiñoeventof2002and2003,firesencroachedintorainforestareas.IncreasesinthefrequencyofdroughtsassociatedwithElNiñoeventswill

Pho

to: J

im M

itche

ll

Pho

to: N

RW

Feral pigs

Miconia calvescens


27

increasethefrequencyandseverityofunusualfireyearsandmayleadtolargechangesinthedistributionofrainforestandsclerophyllcommunities.TheWetTropicsregioncanexpectmorefrequentandmoreintensefiresdueto:

hottertemperatures•moredroughts•lessrainfallinwinter/spring•longerperiodsoflowhumidity•CO• 2inducedincreasesinbiomasssmallerwindowsofopportunityfor•prescribedburns.

3.2 Effects of warming on higher altitude habitats in the Wet Tropics

ManyWetTropicsendemicspeciesliveonlyinthecooler,higheraltitudepartsoftheregion[30].Figure 1modelshowclimatechangemayaffectthespatialextentandpatternofcoolhabitatswheretheaveragetemperatureislessthan22ºC.Thisapproximatesthetemperaturethresholdformostarborealleaf-eatingmammalssuchaspossumsintheWetTropics[31].

Figure 1.AreasintheWetTropicswithmeanannualtemperatureslessthan22.0ºC(black)intoday’sclimate(left)andafter2.0ºCwarming[31].

Hot fire


28

3.3 Effects of warming on Wet Tropics higher altitude vertebrate fauna

BioclimaticmodelsdevelopedbyresearchersfromJamesCookUniversityandCSIROsuggestthatclimatechangeislikelytohavecatastrophiceffectsonmanyoftheregion’sendemicvertebratespecies.

Anincreaseinregionalaveragetemperatureof1.0ºCcouldpotentiallyproduceadecreaseof60%inthedistributionalrangeoftheregion’sendemicvertebratespecies[21]basedonthesespecies’currentdistributionalrangelimits.Amid-rangeclimatechangepredictionof3.5ºCcouldfurtherreducethedistributionofendemicvertebratestoapproximately5%oftheircurrentrange.Projectedwarmingofthismagnitudealsosimulatedalossofapproximately65%oftheendemicvertebratescurrentlyfoundintheregion.Thiswouldimplyastronglikelihoodofapproximately50speciesbecominggloballyextinctfromtheWTQWHAwithonlyamoderateaveragetemperatureincrease.Mostuplandendemicvertebratespecieswilldisappearundertheworst-casescenarioswithtemperatureincreasesof5.0ºCormore[21].Witheachmodelledincreaseintemperature,itisalsoevidentthatpatchesofclimaticallysuitablehabitatbecomesmaller,fragmentedandmoreisolated.AnyofthedescribedscenarioswouldbecatastrophicwithrespecttotheconservationofthevaluesforwhichtheAreawaslisted.

Table 1liststhoseWetTropicsendemicvertebratespeciespredictedtolosegreaterthan50%oftheircurrentareaofcoreclimaticenvironmentwithonlya1.0ºCincreaseintemperature.Figure 2illustratesthesequentialdeclineindistributionofspeciesrichnessofWetTropicsendemicterrestrialvertebratesastheclimategetsprogressivelywarmer.

Pho

to: E

PA

Pho

to: M

ike

Tren

erry

Northern barred frog

Daintree ringtail possum


29

Table 1.WetTropicsendemicvertebratefaunapredictedtobemostatriskfromclimatechange[19,21].

Frogs

Thornton Peak nursery-frog Cophixalus concinnusMagnificent broodfrog Pseudophryne covacevichaePipping nursery-frog Cophixalus hosmeriNorthern barred frog Mixophyes carbinensisTangerine nursery-frog Cophixalus neglectusBloomfield nursery-frog Cophixalus exiguusMountain top nursery-frog Cophixalus rheophilusNorthern tinker-frog Taudactylus rheophilus

Mammals

Atherton antechinus Antechinus godmaniMahogany glider Petaurus gracilisDaintree River ringtail possum Pseudochirulus cinereusLemuroid ringtail possum Hemibelideus lemuroidesHerbert River ringtail possum Pseudochirulus herbertensisSpotted-tailed quoll Dasyurus maculatus

Birds

Golden bowerbird Prionodura newtonianaAtherton scrubwren Sericornis keriMountain thornbill Acanthiza katherina

Skinks

Thornton Peak skink Calyptotis thorntonensisBartle Frere skink Techmarscincus jigurruCzechura’s litter skink Saproscincus czechuraiskink (no common name) Saproscincus lewisiskink (no common name) Lampropholis robertsiskink (no common name) Eulamprus frereiskink (no common name) Glaphyromorphus mjobergi


30

Figure 2.Thedeclineindistributionofspeciesrichnessofregionallyendemicterrestrialvertebrateswithincreasingtemperature(thedarkertheshadeofgreythegreaterthespeciesrichness)[21].

Predictedeffectscouldconceivablyhavebeengreaterifclimatevariablesotherthantemperaturewereconsidered.IncreasedCO2concentrations,forexample,mayreducethenutritionalvalueandincreasethelignincomponentoffoliagewithdetrimentaleffectsontheabundanceofleaf-eatingfauna.Inaddition,changes

Golden bowerbird

Mahogany glider

Pho

to: D

aryn

Sto

rch


31

ingeographicdistributionmaypushspeciesoffnutrient-richbasalticsoils(atmidaltitudes)andontoincreasinglypoorergraniticsoilsathigherelevations[25].Forestsonthesepoorersoilsgenerallysupportlowerpopulationdensitiesofleaf-eatingfauna[25].Ontheotherhand,thesemodelsarebasedsolelyonthedegreetowhichthecurrentmacrohabitatoftheseanimalsislikelytochange(exposure)andignorespossibleintrinsicadaptiveandbehaviouraltraitsofthespecies,orextrinsicmicrohabitatfactorsthatmayhelpincounteringtheextentofthepredictedimpact.Refinementofthesemodelsisacurrentfocusofresearchefforts.

3.4 Environmental goods and servicesClimatechangeisexpectedtonotonlyresultinsevereadverseimpactsonhabitatsandwildlifewithintheWTQWHA,butalsoimpactupontheenvironmentalgoodsandservicestheAreaprovides(Table 2).Theregion’spopulationreceivesgreatvaluefromtheseecologicalgoodsandservices,manyofwhichsupporteconomicactivities.Forexample,thesupplyofasecureandsafewatersupplysupportsthequalityoflifeofresidents,ensuresgoodpublichealth,andfosterstheeconomicgrowthanddevelopmentoftheregion.

Table 2.ExamplesofecosystemgoodsandservicesprovidedbytheWTQWHA[29]

Maintenance of the environment

Utilitarian uses

Personal enjoyment Ethics

carbon cycles• water cycles• water quality• regional • climates and microclimate flood mitigation• groundwater • rechargepollination• pest control• habitat• refugia• water • regulationwaste • breakdown

water supply• tourism• recreation• genetic • resourcesscientific • discoveryeducation• horticulture • food• pharmaceutical • products

enjoyment• aesthetic • pleasureinspiration• serenity• leisure • activities (photography, bushwalking, bird watching, camping)lifestyle• sense of place• national • identity

ethical/moral • valuesintrinsic • natural values and importancecultural values• historic values• existence • values


32

Rainfall and water supplyAreliablewatersupplyisoneofthemostvaluedenvironmentalservicessuppliedbytheArea.WhileitispredictedtheWetTropicsregionwillfaremuchbetterthanmanyotherregionsinAustraliawithrespecttoavailabilityofwaterwiththeonsetofclimatechange,nevertheless,impactsinthisregionareexpectedtooccur.Thesearesummarisedbelow:

AnincreaseinthefrequencyofElNiñoyearswillreducesummerwet•seasonstreamflows.

Reducedrainfallinthewinterdryseasonasaresultofincreasedevapo-•transpirationanddecreasedcloudstrippingwillreducedryseasonstreamflows.

Therewillbegreaterseasonalityinstreamflows(morevariableinthewet•season,lowerinthedryseason).

Therewillbegreateryeartoyearvariabilityinflows(duetogreater•frequencyofextremeevents).

The combination of low •elevation,decreasesinfreshwaterflowsandrisingsealevelsincreasestheriskofsaltwaterincursionsthatmayaffectthequalityoffreshwatersourcescurrentlytappedforurbanandagriculturalpurposes[18].

Rainforest creek

Mountain stream Pho

to: E

PA


33

Cloud stripping and water supplyHighaltituderainforestswhichareimmersedincloudforalargeproportionofthetimestripconsiderableamountsofmoisturefrompassingclouds.ResearchersfromCSIROhavefoundthat,insomemonthsoftheyear,upto40%morewaterisharvestedoutofthecloudsthanismeasuredasrainfallinaraingauge.Theyfoundthattheregion’shighaltituderainforestsbehavelikegiantsponges,capturinglargevolumesofwaterdirectlyfromclouds,whichtheythenreleaseslowlythroughouttheyear.Thisprocessisnowbelievedtobeofgreatimportanceinmaintainingstreamflowsthroughoutthedryseason.

Theprocessisconsideredsignificanttotheoverallwaterbudgetoftheregion,especiallyintermsofwaterrechargeduringthedryseason.Fortheuplandrainforest,cloud-strippingcontributesupto70%ofthetotalwaterinputintotheforestsystemduringthedriermonths.Duringthewetseason,highrainfallmaskstheimportanceofcloudstrippingwhichnonethelessstillcontributes10-20%ofthetotalwaterinputintotheregion’suppercatchments[16].

Undercurrentclimateconditions,cloudstrippingoccursinrainforestsmorethan600masl(abovesealevel).Witheverydegreeofwarmingthebaseofthecloudcondensationlayerispredictedtorisebyanaverageof100m.By2050wemayexpecttemperaturestobebetween1.0ºCto3.0ºCwarmerthanatpresentwhichequatestoariseintheeffectivecloudstrippingcondensationlayerfrom600maslto900masl.With3.0ºCofwarming,theeffectivecloudstrippingareaintheWetTropicswilldecreasebyasmuchas40%[16].Whatthiswillmeanforabsolutewateryieldsremainsunknown,excepttoconcludethatwateryieldswillbesignificantlylower,especiallyinthedryseason.Theimplicationsofclimatechangeonthisprocesswillinclude:

reductionintheareasuitableforthecloudstrippingprocess•

lesscloudstrippinginthedryseasonandgenerallyreducedcloudcover•

changestovegetationcharacteristicswhichmayreducethewaterstripping•capacityofuplandrainforest.

Behana Creek water supply


34

4. Management responses

Managementinvolvesallocatingresourcesamongstcompetinginterests.Therelativeimportanceofdifferentissuesmaychangeasaresultofclimatechange.Therefore,resourceallocationsneedtobeadaptive,activelyseekinginformationwheretherearedataandunderstandinggaps,andtakingaccountofnewinformationasitbecomesavailable.

Changestoecosystemswillinevitablyaffecthumancommunitiesandindustriesthatdependonthem.RegionalcommunitiesaredependentontheWTQWHAasamajorsourceofincomeandanimportantdeterminantoflifestyle.Themagnitudeoftheimpactsofclimatechangeonthenaturalvaluesoftheregionwilldepend,inlargepart,onthewillingnessandcapacityofthelocalcommunitytomodifythosepracticesthatreducetheecologicalresilienceofnaturalandsemi-naturalhabitats.Effectivemanagement,therefore,requirestheemploymentofstrategiesthataresociallyandeconomicallysustainable[34,35,36].

Althoughthereremainuncertaintiesaboutthetiming,magnitudeandgeographicdistributionofclimatechangeimpacts,itisevidenttheresultwillbeawarming,drying,morevariableclimatewithmorefrequent,extremeweatherevents.TheseclimatechangesarelikelytointeractwithabroadrangeofotherpressuresontheArea.Tworecentclimateeventscanhelptoillustratethenatureofstressesanddisruptionstonatural,socialandeconomicsystemsbyaclimatedrivenbywarmertemperatures:theseverestormsofCycloneLarryin2006;andtheseveredroughtconditionswhichaffectedtheregionin2002and2003andtheassociatedpenetrationofbushfiresintorainforestareas.

Whileclimatechangehassignificantly‘uppedtheante’withrespecttoregionallanduseplanningandmanagementissues,theoverlapandcloserelationshipbetweentheapplicationofbestpracticelandmanagementmeasuresandconstructiveclimatechangeadaptationmeasuresissignificant.Thisprovidesconsiderablereassuranceandopportunitiesfortheregiontotakeuseful,‘no

SummaryEffectiveactioncanbetakennowtobuildresilienceintheWetTropicslandscapetothethreatofclimatechange.Theactionsneededtocombatclimatechangeinclude:

on-groundworkstoimproveforesthealth1.

increasingcommunityawarenessandmobilisingbehaviouralchange2.

improvingandcommunicatingourknowledgeoftheeffectsof3.climatechange

improvingregionalplanningandcoordination.4.


35

regrets’climatechangeresponsemeasures–thetypeofmeasuresthatwillhavecomplementarybenefitsformaintainingthehealthandconditionoftheAreatogetherwithlong-termflow-onbenefitstotheregionaleconomyandqualityoflife.Muchofwhatneedstobedoneisalreadybeingdone–itjustneedsacommitmenttodothesethingsbetter,moreoften,overalargerareaandinamorecoordinatedandprioritisedway.Itwillalsorequireacommitmentfromtheregionalcommunitytoembracethesechangesandadaptationinitiatives.Livinginaninternationallyrecognisedbiologicalhotspotentailsresponsibilitiestoensureitisconservedforallpeopleandforfuturegenerations.

Therearetwobroadcategoriesofclimatechangeresponses:mitigation(avoidingorreducinggreenhousegasemissionsandincreasingsequestrationofgreenhousegases);andadaptation(copingwithclimatechangeimpacts).Thefollowingpracticalstepsareaimedatreducingtheimpactsofclimatechangeontheregion’sbiodiversity,primarilythroughadaptiveresponses.Thiswillbeachievedthroughinsituconservationofspeciesandecologicalcommunitiesbyfacilitatingtheirnaturaladaptationbymeansofimprovingtheoverallecologicalresilienceoftheregion.

4.1 ResilienceEcologicalresiliencecanbedefinedasthecapacityofanecosystemtotolerateorrecoverfromdisturbancewithoutcollapsing.Aresilientecosystemcanwithstandshocksandrebuilditselfwhennecessary.Forecosystemstopersistinthelong-term,successfulrecoveryafterdisturbanceisfundamental.Naturalsystemsarecharacterisedbyenvironmentalthresholdsthat,ifcrossed,mayleadtolarge-scaleandrelativelyabruptshiftsinstate,includingchangesinecosystemprocessesandstructure[37,38].Onceathresholdiscrossedandashiftinstateorakeyprocessoccurs,itmaybedifficult,orevenimpossible,toreversetheshift.

Amajorbenefitofmanagingnaturalsystemsforoverallresilienceisthatitprovidesthebestgeneralinsuranceagainstcurrentandemergingthreats[38,

Drought at Lake Tinaroo in 2003


36

39].Itisinevitablethatcurrentlyunrecognisedthreatswillemergewithintheregion,sothebestlong-termmanagementstrategyistoaimforasystemwiththeresiliencetorecoverfromaswidearangeofanticipatedchallengesaspossible.Factorscontributingtoecologicalresilienceinclude:

Biological diversity• –Ecologicalsystemswithhighbiologicaldiversitywillgenerallyhavegreaterinherentresilience,largelybecausetheywillhavemorediverseresponsesandcapacitiesavailabletothem,whichcanprovidethebasisforadaptation[40].Diversityofhabitatsalsoincreasesthelikelihoodofsomehabitatsbeingmoreresilienttoimpactsfromparticularstressesordisturbances[40].

Connectivity• –Connectivityreferstotheextentoftheconnectionsbetweenpopulations.Thecapacityofnaturalsystemstorecoverafteradisturbance,ortoreorganiseinthefaceofneworintensifiedpressures,dependstoalargeextentontheabilityofplantandanimalpopulationsandecologicalprocessestodisperseormoveacrossthelandscape.

Wet sclerophyll forest

Donaghy’s corridor, Atherton Tableland

Pho

to: L

ars

Kaz

mei

er


37

Refugia• –Refugiaareareaswithinthelandscapewhereecosystemsarebufferedfrompressuresordisturbancesthatwouldotherwiseresultinreducedresilienceelsewhere.Refugiaserveassecuresourceareaswhichareimportantforthereplenishmentofdisturbedpopulationsandserveassteppingstonesformaintainingpopulationconnectivityacrosslargerscales.Importantfeaturesofrefugiaincludeadequateextenttoprovidesufficientsourcepopulationsandinclusionofadiverseandcomprehensivesampleofmanydifferenthabitattypes.

Conservingorcreatinggreaterlandscapeconnectivitybetweenareasrichinbiodiversity,inconjunctionwithrefugia,providesgreateropportunitiesforspeciesandecologicalprocessestorecover,re-establishandrelocateortoadaptandevolve.Thefollowingfoursectionsoutlinearangeofpracticalstepsthattheregioncantaketohelpachieveamoreresilientnaturalenvironment.

4.2 Regional planning, coordination and leadership

4.2.1 Integrating climate change into managementRespondingtoclimatechangeisunlikelytosucceedifitisdoneinisolationfromotherlandmanagementactivitiesandotheragenciesinvolvedinlandmanagement.Theclimatechangechallengeisoccurringatallscales,fromspeciestocatchmenttolandscapescales,andacrossindustries,propertyboundariesandlandtenures.Foraregionalresponsetobemeaningful,allthoseaffectedneedtobebroughttogethertodeliverintegratedapproachestonaturalresourceandlandmanagementproblems.Thismustinvolvegovernmentagencies,industriesandregionalcommunities.

Mountain refuge

Pho

to: E

PA


38

Manymanagementresponsestoclimatechange,suchaspestmanagementandcreatingwildlifecorridors,arealreadybeingundertakentoenhanceWetTropicsconservation.Suchconservationactivitieswillbecomemoreurgentandprioritiesmayalterinthelightofclimatechangetoensureadditionalenvironmentalorsocioeconomicbenefits.

What can be done?DevelopaWetTropicsBioregional•ClimateChangeActionPlanaimedatconservingtheoutstandinguniversalvaluesandintegrityoftheAreaandthebiodiversityoftheoverallregion.

Coordinatewithclimatechange•responsesinothersectorssuchasurbanandregionalplanning,wateruse,coastalmanagementandGreatBarrierReefplanningandmanagement.

Developandimplementa•communicationsstrategytoraiseawarenessofclimatechangeimpactsandtheadvantagesofearlyattentiontoadaptation.

4.2.2 Coordination and alignmentClimatechangethreatswillintroducearangeofsocialandethicalissuesthatwillneedtobeaddressed.Acommonapproachbyregionallandmanagementorganisationsandtheresearchcommunitywillhavebenefits.

What can be done?ContinuetodeveloptheNorthQueenslandClimateAllianceasanetworkof•climatechangeinterestgroupsataregionallevel.

SupportthebidbyJamesCookUniversity’sCentreforTropical•BiodiversityandClimateChangetohosttheNationalClimateChangeAdaptationResearchFacility-TerrestrialBiodiversityHubinTownsville.Thisfacilitywouldestablishanational/internationalnetworkofclimatechangeinterestgroups.

Wet Tropics coastline

WTMA, Main Roads and Terrain NRM brochure


39

PromotetheWetTropicsConservationStrategy[49]asthesourceof•conservationprioritiesforregionallandandenvironmentdecision-makers.

4.2.3 Reducing emissionsAnauditofgreenhousegasemissionscommissionedbytheAuthorityin2007[48]showedthatpercapitaemissionsintheWetTropics(23.6tonnesCO2orequivalent)in2005weresignificantlylowerthanaverageemissionsforQueenslandandAustralia.However,theyremained70%greaterthanaverageemissionsforindustrialisedcountriessubjecttoemissiontargetsundertheKyotoProtocol.LowstationaryenergyemissionsintheWetTropicsweredueprimarilytohydro,windandbagassepowerandtheabsenceofenergyintensiveindustries.Higherthanaveragetransportemissionswerepartlyduetouseofaviationfuel.AsinmanyotherareasofAustralia,localresidentsareincreasinglyawareoftheneedtoconserveresourcesanduselessenergy.Thereareecologicalandsocioeconomicbenefitsfromwiseandsparinguseofenergyandournaturalassetssuchaswaterandforests.

What can be done?Usetheregionalgreenhouse•gasauditasabaselineforfuturemonitoringofemissions.

Provideregionalleadershipin•measurestoreducegreenhousegasemissions.

PromotetheCitiesforClimate•Protectionprograminregionalcouncils.

Launch of the Wet Tropics greenhouse gas emissions audit

Wind farm at Ravenshoe


40

4.2.4 Planning and developmentTheFarNorthQueenslandDraftRegionalPlan2025[11]promotesastronger,moreliveableandsustainablecommunity.Itacknowledgesthatthelikelyimpactsofclimatechangearesignificantfortheregion’senvironment,economyandcommunities.TherehasbeenstrongcommunitysupportforbiodiversityconservationintheregionandtheneedforwildlifecorridorsthatwillhelptobuildresilienceintheWetTropicslandscape.

What can be done?SupportimplementationofpoliciesintheFNQDraftRegionalPlan2025•[11]thatwillhelptomitigategreenhouseemissionsandsupportmeasurestobuildenvironmentalandcommunityresilience.

Ensurethatclimatechangeimpactsareconsideredinallmajorplanningand•developmentdecisions.

4.2.5 Wet Tropics tourismTheregion’seconomyreliesheavilyonasustainablenaturebasedtourismindustry.TheprincipalnaturalresourcesonwhichthisindustrydependsaretheWTQWHAandtheGreatBarrierReefWorldHeritageArea.TheimpactofclimatechangeonthesetwoWorldHeritageAreasastouristattractionshasthepotentialtosignificantlyaffectthetourismindustry,withconsequentialsocialandeconomicimpacts.

What can be done?Supportregionalcleanandgreeninitiativesbythetourismindustry.•

Supportmovesbythetourismindustrytobuildrainforestresilienceand•promotegreentourismthroughtheuseofregionalbiodiversityoffsets.

Clearing for development, Mission Beach


41

Developregional•adaptationstrategiesfornaturebasedtourism.

Continuetoassess•theimpactsofclimatechangeontourismandtourismvalues(physical,socialandeconomic)andontherelativeimpactofclimatechangeonthedifferentformsoftourism.

4.2.6 Maximising carbon market opportunitiesWithcarbontradingproposednationallyforAustralia,significantopportunitiesexistforbiodiversityconservationtobejointlyplannedforaspartofproposalsforthebiosequestrationofcarbon.Opportunitiesforcombininggreenhouseandbiodiversityobjectivesrangefromtheselectionofnativespeciesmixesforforestplantationestablishmenttothecreationofstrategiccorridors,therestorationoflandscapeconnectivityandthebufferingofintactnaturalareas.Thesemultipleenvironmentalbenefitscouldhaveadditionalcorporateappealintermsofdisplayingacompany’scommitmenttobroaderenvironmentalprotection.

What can be done?Explorethespectrumofcarbontradingandothereconomicincentives•whichareavailabletohelpachieveorfundeffectiveclimateadaptationresponsestobuildresiliencefortheWTQWHA.

Daintree River cruise

Daintree Cassowary Care Group

Pho

to: T

Q

Pho

to: B

arba

ra M

asle

n


42

4.3 Improving and communicating our knowledge of the effects of climate change

4.3.1 Building regional capability and reducing uncertaintyWhiletheWetTropicsregionisrecognisedasbeingaleaderinclimatechangeresearchforthetwoWorldHeritageAreas,thereremainsubstantialgapsinourknowledgeofclimatechange,itsimpactsandappropriateresponsestotheseimpacts.Thereisalsoaneedtoimprovethesynthesisanddisseminationofinformationsothatitismorerelevantandunderstandabletodecision-makersandthegeneralcommunity.Keycomponentsofadaptivecapacityincludetheabilitytogenerate,accessandinterpretinformationaboutclimatechangeanditslikelyimpacts;suitablemethodsforidentifyingandassessingpotentialadaptationstrategies;adequatefinancialandotherresources;andawillingnesstoadapt.

Theregion’sscientistshavegeneratedanimpressivebaseofinformationabouthowtheclimateischangingandthebroadphysicalimpactsthesechangesmayhave.However,theAuthority,othergovernmentagenciesandthecommunityrequireimprovedinformationabouttheprojectionsofclimatechange,particularlyofextremeeventsandtheirimpactupontheArea’svaluesandintegrity.

What can be done?Supportresearchandeducational•institutionswhichplacerainforestandreefWorldHeritagemanagementissuesandconcernshighontheirresearchandteachingagendas.

SupporttheCSIROandJamesCook•UniversityprojectsfundedthroughMTSRFwhicharestartingtoprovideclimatechangeprojectionsandregionalscenariosatscalesrelevanttodecision-makers.

Increaseandpromotepostgraduate•researchonthethermaltolerancesofthreatenedspeciesandonpossiblemitigationmeasures.

Developimprovedregionalclimate•changeprojections,extremeclimateeventprojectionsandimprovedregionalclimatemodellinganddownscalingtechniques.

Researcher at work


43

4.3.2 Understanding social resilienceSocialandeconomictrendsthataffecttheregion’svulnerabilitytoclimatechangeandthesocialandeconomicimpactsofclimatechangeontheregionareverypoorlyunderstood.Itisimportantforfacilitatingsocialandeconomicresiliencethattheregionsupportsmoresocialresearch.

What can be done?Collectandanalysesocialandeconomicdataandtrendstoassesshowthese•factorsarelikelytoinfluencevulnerabilitytoclimatechange.

Identifysocialandeconomiccostsofclimatechangeandmanagement•responseoptions,includingthecostofnottakingadaptationaction.

4.3.3 Establishment of climate change research centresUniversitiesandresearchinstitutionshaveaspecialroletoplayineducatingandbuildingregionalcapacitythroughestablishingcentresforclimateresearch,fosteringinternationalnetworksofcollaboratingscientistsandinstitutions,andprovidingtrainingandcareerdevelopmentopportunitiesforyoungscientists.

Theresearchcapabilityoftheregionhasincreasedsignificantlyinthelastdecade,especiallywithrespecttoresearchontheimpactsofclimatechangeonbiodiversityandecosystemprocesses.However,thereisstillaneedforfurtherresearchonclimatechangeimpactsintheWetTropicsandhowtointegratethisresearchintothemanagementofthreateningprocessessuchasfragmentation,pestsandfire.Thisincludestheneedtoidentifycriticalthresholdsfornaturalecosystemsandapproachestoincreasingtheirresiliencetotheimpactsofclimatechange.

ArecentbidbyJamesCookUniversitytoestablishanational‘CentreforClimateChangeAdaptation’wouldprovideabroaderexaminationofthesocial,economic,

Sunbird, an energy efficient house, Cairns


44

agriculturalandenvironmentalimpactsofclimatechangeandhowbesttomanagethem.Thiswouldcoordinateandintegrateresearchanddecision-makingaboutclimatechangeimpactsonvariouscommunitysectors.Thecentremayalsobecomeafundingbodytobrokerresearchpartnershipsanddevelopnewresearch.

What can be done?Supportanexpansionofthe•establishedregionalresearchbaseintoaninternationalhubforresearchintoclimatechangeanditsimpactsonterrestrial,aquaticandestuarineecosystemsandbiodiversity.

Supportthebidtoestablish•aCentreforClimateChangeAdaptationintheWetTropics.

Incorporatetheimplicationsofclimatechangeintoexistingregional•managementplans,strategies,guidelinesandpolicies.

4.3.4 Monitoring Monitoringclimate,climateimpactsandmanagementresponsesiscriticalgivenclimatechangeentailssomanyuncertainties.Monitoringisnecessarytodetectpopulationchangesandspeciesdeclinesorincreases.Monitoringshouldfocusonspeciesatspecialrisk,butbeflexibleenoughtodetectotherchanges.

Theclimatechange/biodiversitymonitoringplotswhichhavebeenestablishedintheWetTropicsbyJamesCookUniversityandCSIROresearchers,withfundingfromMTSRF,SmartStateandothersources,hasprovidedAustraliawithanopportunitytojoinaworldwidenetworkofrainforestmonitoringplots.TheWetTropicsplotnetworkhasthepotentialtoprovidethemostcomprehensivestudyofbiologicalcommunitieseverundertakeninAustralia.Theynotonlyprovidethebaselineforlong-termmonitoringforaverylargeproportionofallthespeciesandbioclimatesintheWetTropics,butalsoalargeproportionofQueensland’sandAustralia’stotalbiodiversity.

TheWetTropicshasthepotentialtobecomeacentralhubofaglobalnetworkofbiodiversity/climatechangemonitoringsites.Fromatopographicalandclimaticbasis,Queensland’sWetTropicshasaffinitieswithuplandtropicalforestlocalitiesintheupperreachesoftheAmazonandCongobasinsandintheuplandsoftheeastcoastofMadagascar,BrazilandNewGuinea[2,41].Together,theseforests

Setting up data loggers in boulder fields

Pho

to: E

arth

wat

ch E

xped

ition

s


45

containaverylargeproportionoftheworld’stotalbiodiversity.However,whatsetstheWetTropicsapartisthatitcontainstropicalrainforestsattheirlatitudinalandclimaticlimits.ThispotentiallymakestheAreaanearlywarningsiteforalertingothervulnerabletropicalforesthotspotstotheemergingeffectsofclimatechange.

What can be done?Supporttheestablishedregionalclimatechange/biodiversitymonitoring•programsbeingundertakenbyJamesCookUniversityandCSIRO.

Expandthescopeofthismonitoringtofurtherdevelopmethodstoassess•andmonitorspecies,communitiesandecosystemsoverthelong-term;monitorecosystemresponsetohelpdevelopandverifypredictivemodels;measureresponsestomanagementactions;andassesswhetherthestrategiesareeffectiveinprotectingbiodiversityandecosystemfunction.

Advocatefortheincreaseduseanddevelopmentofremotesensingmethods•formonitoringsuchastheuseofsatellitetechnology,non-destructivetechniquesandtheuseofsimulationtoolstopredicttheimpactofclimatechange.

4.4 On-ground works to improve forest healthThefollowingoutlinesarangeofactionsthatcanbeimplementedtoincreasetheecologicalresilienceoftheregion’snaturalsystems.Manyarerelevantforimplementationatbothlargeandsmallscales,buttheirefficacywillbeincreasediftheyarepartofacoordinatedeffortbyalllandandnaturalresourcemanagers.

Downloading data in the field

Pho

to: E

arth

wat

ch E

xped

ition

s


46

4.4.1 Managing environmental stress created by climate change

Existing threatsClimatechangewillinteractwithmanyexistingthreatstotheoutstandinguniversalvaluesandintegrityoftheWTQWHAandothernaturalandsemi-naturalareasoftheregion,resultinginevengreaternegativeimpactsontheenvironment.Reducingotherexistingthreatsorpressurestobiodiversitywillhelpbuildresilienceintonaturalsystemsandspecies.Naturalsystemsthatarealreadystressedorsufferingfrommultiplepressuresaremorelikelytosuccumbtotheadditionalstressesofimpactsbyclimatechange.

Invasive speciesInvasivepestspeciesaregenerallyexpectedtobeclimatechangewinnersbecausetheytendtobecolonisersoradaptableopportunistsandareamongthefirsttooccupyneworexpandingenvironmentalnichesafterdisturbanceorwithinstressedecosystems.Aparticularchallengeinthisareaisthepotentialfor‘sleeper’weedsandferalanimalstobegintoexpandtheirrangesuddenlyanddramaticallyinresponsetoevenmoderateshiftsinclimateorinresponsetochangesinthefrequencyofextremeeventssuchasfiresorcyclones.

PrioritytargetsforeradicationeffortsshouldbethosespeciesthathaveahighpotentialtoinvadetheAreaandthosethatarecurrentlyrareincultivationandrareinthewild.Invasiveintroducedgrassesareanothergroupofweedsthatjustifyspecialattention.Introducedflammablegrassesarealreadyaseriousenvironmentalthreatevenwithoutconsideringclimatechange.Guineagrassandmolassesgrass,forexample,growtallerthannativegrassesandalsogrowinmuchthickerstandspreventingnativetreerecruitment,bothbyshadingouttheirseedlingsandfuellinghotfiresthatdestroythem.

Pond apple


47

FireLandmanagerswillneedtoacceptthatanewclimateregimemaybringapermanentchangetofireregimesforvariousnativeecosystemsthroughoutthenon-rainforestedpartsoftheregion.Regionallandmanagerswillneedtoconsiderinvestingmoreinfiremanagementtoreflectanyincreasedfireriskandidentifyandprotectfirerefugiawherenaturalfireregimescanfeasiblyberetained.

What can be done?Reduceother(non-climate)environmentalpressures.•

Eradicatenewlyemerginginvasivepestspeciesandcontrolorcontainmore•widespreadinvasiveplant,animalanddiseaseoutbreaks.

Assessandmodeltheimplicationsandsynergiesbetweenclimatechange,•firemanagementandecosystemalterations.

4.4.2 Managing landscape health in the face of climate change

Landscape connectivityConnectivityreferstothemaintenanceorrestorationofkey,large-scaleecologicalphenomena,flows,andprocessescriticaltothelong-termconservationofbiodiversity[42].Thismayrangefromlarge-scaleecologicalprocessessuchaswatercyclesandflowregimestothetransferofgenesfromlowlandareastouplandareas.Animportantconnectivityprocesswithrespecttoclimatechangeistheroleofdispersivespecies.Dispersivespeciesarethosespeciesthatarecapable

Controlled burn

Pho

to: E

PA


48

oftravellinglargedistancesandmaybeimportantinmovingpollenandseedoverlargedistances.Whilethecapacityofdispersivespeciesforlongdistancetravelwillbeadvantageousinthefaceofclimatechange,habitatfragmentationanddegradationmaypresentsignificantbarrierstospeciesthatmayneedtomovetonewhabitatsandrefugia.

Ecological corridorsAwildlifecorridorreferstoaswathoflandorawatercourseintendedtoallowpassagebyidentifiedwildlifespeciesbetweentwoormoreforestedareas.Wildlifecorridorsaregenerallyconsideredatalocalscaleandforindividualspecies.Theirprimarypurposeistolinkotherwiseseparatedpopulationsandformitigatingotherimpactsofhabitatfragmentationonwildlifepopulations[43,44].Designingacorridornetworkinvolvesidentifyingspecificlandsthatwillbestmaintaintheabilityofwildlifetomovebetweenforestedblocks,eveniftheremaininglandbecomesinhospitabletowildlifemovement.Climatechangeaddsgreatlytotherationaleforconservingorcreatingecologicalcorridors.Althoughthemostimportantcorridorsarethosethatrunlongdistancesorwhichcaptureanaltitudinalgradient[45],allcorridorspromotegeneticexchangeandlinkpopulations,whichinturnfostersadaptationtoclimatechange.Strengtheningandextendingnetworksofcorridorsbyplantingtreeswillalsoprovideacarbonsink.Aregionalcorridornetworkwillbenefitandincreasetheresilienceofmanyspeciesofwildlifeandvegetationcommunitiesbymitigatingsomeofthedetrimentalecologicalimpactsarisingfromsurroundinglandusesandbyprovidingconduitsthroughwhich:

wildlifecandispersefrom•areaswhichhavereachedmaximumcarryingcapacityand/orcompetition,andrecoloniseotherfavourablehabitats,potentiallyimprovingtheresilienceofapopulationtostress

wildlifecanfolloworescape•localorlonger-termseasonalchangesinenvironmentalconditions

wildlifecanaccesspreviously•separatedpopulationswithwhichbreedingmaytakeplace,bettermaintainingandpossiblyimprovinggeneticvariability.

Cassowary


49

RefugiaInevolutionaryterms,refugiaarepartsofthelandscapeinwhichcertaintypesorsuitesoforganismsareabletopersistduringperiodsinwhichmostoftheiroriginalgeographicrangebecomesuninhabitablebecauseofclimaticchange.Theresultingrefugiacontainhighfrequenciesofendemicspeciesbecausethespeciesinthemtendtorespondtothecontractionofrangebyevolvingdifferencesfromtheiroriginal,widespreadstock[46].

Refugia,therefore,areimportantastheyrepresentthoseareaswherefavourablehabitatwillpersistordevelopastheclimatechanges.Asconditionsoutsiderefugiabecomehostilewithchangingclimate,aspecieswillbelostfromthewiderrangeandpersistlargelyintherefugia.Locationsthathaveservedasrefugiaduringpastclimatechangesmayserveasrefugiaforthepresentperiodofclimatechange.However,refugiamayalsodevelopoutsideofthecurrentrangeofaspeciesasclimatezonesshiftandecosystemsshiftwiththem.Inthiscase,itwillbecrucialtoalsoidentifyandprotectthesenewrefugiaandmigrationcorridorstothem.

Habitat replicationReplicate,securehabitatsareavitalformofinsuranceastheyprotectmultiplesourcepopulations,climaterefugiaandmigrationcorridors.Thesmallerandmoreisolatedahabitat,themorelikelyitistolosespeciesovertimeandthemorevulnerableitistostressfuleventssuchascyclones,droughts,firesorfloods.Withsufficienthabitatreplication,aspecieshasagreaterlikelihoodofremainingviablewithagreatercapacitytoadapttoenvironmentalchange.AlthoughtheWTQWHAcapturesagreatdiversityofhabitats,refugiaandmigrationcorridorsduetoitspossessionofsignificantenvironmentalgradients,therearemanylowlandandtablelandhabitatsthatarepoorlyrepresentedwithintheArea.

Bellenden Ker mountaintop vegetation


50

What can be done?Maintainandenhancelandscape-scaleecologicalconnectivity.•

Identify,conserveandcreatewildlifecorridors.•

Identifyandprotectclimaticallystablerefugia.•

Ensurehabitats,speciesandotherenvironmentalvaluesarereplicatedinthe•protectedareaestatewhereverfeasible.

Increaselandscapeandhabitatheterogeneitywithinprotectedareas,•includingaltitudinal,latitudinal,topographicandvegetationdiversity.

4.4.3 Ecological site management

Tree plantingsOneofthebiggestopportunitiestoimprovelandscapeconditionandconnectivityisthroughprogramsofstrategictreeplantingsandhabitatrestoration.Frombothabiodiversityandnaturalresourcemanagementperspective,riparianrevegetationisahighpriorityasithasmultipleenvironmentalandeconomicbenefitssuchasstabilisingstreambanks,filteringrunoff,shadingstreams(thuskeepingwatertemperatureswithintheirnaturalrange),andcontributingtothefoodwebforin-streambiota.Replantingschemesalsoofferopportunitiesforreintroducinggenestoisolatedpopulations,increasingthepopulationsizeofthreatenedspeciesandprovidingkeystoneresourcestoincreasetheecologicalfunctionalityofwildlifecorridors.

Revegetation


51

Thermal refuge sitesEcologistsusetheterm‘refuge’tomeanalocationinwhichaspeciesorsuiteofspeciescanpersistforshortperiodswhenlargepartsoftheirpreferredhabitatsbecomeuninhabitablebecauseofunsuitableclimaticorecologicalconditions.

Deepgullies,rockoutcropsandsouth-facingslopesarelandscapefeaturesthataregenerallycoolerthantheirsurroundings,therebyprovidingsitesthatofferthermalrelief.Specialconsiderationandpriorityshouldbegiventotheseandotherlandscapefeaturesthatcreateamildmicroclimate.Habitatscanalsobeenhancedtoincreasecoolmicroclimates.Forexample,riparianvegetationcanberestoredtoshadewatercourses,logsandrocksinstalledaspartofrevegetationprojectsorinsemi-naturalareastoprovidecoolsitestoassistnativespecies.Ingeneral,treeplantingssignificantlycoolandinsulatesites.Thelossofshadyriparianvegetation,siltingupofdeeppoolsandtheloweringofwaterlevelsallleadtohigherstreamtemperaturesthatmaybeintolerableforsomeaquaticwildlife.Improvingstreamhabitatqualitymightincludethemaintenanceofcoolingfeaturessuchastherestorationofripariancoverorrestrictionsonwaterextraction.

What can be done?Revegetateclearedanddegradedareas.•

Identify,conserve,createandenhancecoolclimaterefuges/siteswithinthe•landscape.

Identify,conserveandcreateaquaticrefuges.•

Pho

to: K

erry

Tra

pnel

l

Thornton Peak


52

4.4.4 Species management

Species at risk AlargeproportionofthespeciesidentifiedinthelistingoftheWTQWHAashavingoutstandinganduniversalvaluehaveoneormoreofarangeofcharacteristics.Theyare:

restrictedtohigh-altitudeenvironments•

havesmalland/orisolatedorboundeddistributions•

havesmallrestrictedranges•

havepoordispersalcapabilities•

arephysiologicallysusceptibletoextremetemperatures•

areconsideredtopossessextremehabitat/nichespecialisation•

showclose,co-evolved,orsynchronousrelationshipswithotherspecies•

displayinflexiblephysiologicalresponsestoclimaticvariables•

areatthelimitsoftheirlatitudinaloraltitudinalrange.•

Insomecasesitislikelythatclimaterefugiaorcorehabitatscannotbemaintained,areunlikelytopersist,ormigrationmaynotbepossible.

Key functional groups Recoveryprocessesarefrequentlyhighlysensitivetodisturbance,highlightingtheimportanceofidentifyingandprotectingthefunctionsthatareessentialforrecovery.Onefunctionofcentralimportancetotheresilienceofrainforestecosystemsisdispersal,particularlyseedandpollendispersal.

Spotted-tailed quoll


53

Theconservationoflong-rangeseeddispersalandpollinatorfaunaisimportanttopromotegeneticadaptation.Sometreeshavehighlymobilepollinatorsandthetransferofpollenfromwarmeradaptedand/ormorestresstolerantpopulationsofaspeciestolesswelladaptedortolerantindividualswillhelpthemproduceoffspringbetteradaptedforawarmerormoreenvironmentallystressfulfuture.

WhiletheimportanceofdispersaltothefunctioningofWetTropicsrainforestecosystemshasbeenafocusofresearchinrecentyears,manyotherspeciesgroupsarealsolikelytoplayanimportantroleinresilience.Althoughlessstudied,highertrophicspeciessuchaspredatorsexertimportanttop-downcontrolsontrophicsystems.Thesepredators,whichgenerallyrequirelargeterritoriesforsurvival,selectivelyremoveindividualsfrompreypopulationsthatarelesswelladaptedtotheirenvironment.Withoutthisselectivepressure,itispossiblethatmanylower-trophicspecieswilltakelongertoadapttochangesinconditionsassociatedwithclimatechange.

TranslocationsTranslocationofspeciesoutsidetheirnaturalrangeentailsrisks.TheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange[47]warnsthat‘movingspeciestoadapttothechangingclimatezonesisfraughtwithscientificuncertainties.Theconsequencesofinvasiveorganismscannotbepredicted;manysurpriseswouldbeexpected.’Becauseoftheinherentrisks,translocationisidentifiedhereasapolicyoflastresort,assomethingtoaddressinthefuture,exceptperhapswiththeselectionofprovenancesoftreesforreplantingprojects.Translocationassumesthat:

appropriatehosthabitatsareavailable,correctlyidentifiedandwillnotbe•disrupted

ecologicalrelationshipsarefullyunderstoodandcanbecateredfor•

resourceswillbeavailableforallindividualsofthetranslocatedandresident•species.

Massplantingsbasedonclimaticpredictionsassumecompleteclimaticandbiologicalknowledge,whichisusuallylacking.Plantingsshouldfocusonkeyareassuchasriparianstripswherenaturalresiliencehasbeenlost.Elsewhere,naturalregeneration,perhapsinconjunctionwithweedcontrol,islikelytobeamoreeffectiveapproachtorecoveringresilienceoverlargeareas.Incontrasttoplantings,naturalregrowthcanbeachievedoverlargeareas,islesscostly,andselectsforgenotypesadaptedtotheprevailingclimatetrends.

Pho

to: M

ike

Tren

erry

Spectacled flying fox


54

Captive breeding and cultivationCaptivebreedingpopulationscouldbeestablishedforspeciesathighriskofextinction.Botanicgardensandherbariacouldplayaroleinthepreservationofspeciesandgeneticmaterialovertimeandcouldplayanimportantroleineducatingthepublicaboutclimatechangeimpacts.

What can be done?Identifysignificantspeciesatriskandplantheirrecoveryandresearchneeds.•

Identify,conserveandencouragekeyfunctionalgroupssuchaslong-range•animaldispersalvectors(seedandpollen).

Developpoliciesandguidelinesregardingthetranslocationofspecies(asa•lastresort).

4.5 Increasing community awareness and mobilising behavioural changeCommunityinvolvementwillbevitaltoameliorateclimatechangeimpactsandreducegreenhousegasemissionsintheWetTropics[49].Whilethepotentialimpactsmaybesevere,theWetTropicsisalsofortunatetohavesignificantcapacitytoreduceemissionsandcreateahealthyandresilientlandscape.Theregionisalsowellplacedtopotentiallybenefitecologicallyandeconomicallyfromcarbonoffsetsthroughtreeplantingprogramswithexceptionallyhighbiodiversityvalue.

Tree planters from TREAT


55

Community awareness TheAuthorityandarangeofothergovernmentagenciesandcommunitygroupsactivelypromotepubliceducationaboutclimatechangeandhowitsimpactsmaybeaddressed.Communityeducationpromotesthebenefitsofbiodiversityconservationforthecommunity’squalityoflife.Itrangesfromgeneralpublicawarenessabouttheneedtoreduceenergyandresourceusetotheneedtoincorporatebiodiversityconservationintoasustainableregionalcommunity.Forinstance,manyschoolshaveadoptedprogramstominimiseelectricityuseattheschoolandarealsoplantingtreesorbuildingwetlandsinthegroundstoattractwildlife.Landholdersarealsotargetedforeducationabouthowtocontrolweedsandferalanimals,fenceanimalsoutofareasrichinbiodiversityorplanttreestopreventerosionandpromotehabitatforwildlife.

Community engagementTheWetTropicsConservationStrategy[49]advocatescooperativemanagementandcommunityengagementtoaddresspressuresontheWTQWHA.ThereisalreadyastronglocalcultureofconservationandsupportfortheWetTropicsandGreatBarrierReefWorldHeritageAreas.Largesectorsofthecommunityarealreadyactivelyengagedinconservationmeasuressuchasplantingwildlifecorridors,wildlifecareandweedcontrol.Suchactivitiesarenotrestrictedtoconservationistsandnowincludesuchdiversegroupsasprimaryproducers,thetourismindustry,infrastructureproviders,RainforestAboriginalpeopleandlocalbusinesses[49].Forinstance,thecreationoftheBarronRiverGreenCorridor

Media relations

Climate Alliance brochure


56

Projecthasbeenfundedandimplementedbyalllevelsofgovernmentandarangeofbusinesses,landholdersandvolunteers.Increasingly,localresidentsareseeingthesocialandeconomicbenefitsthatflowfromcommunityconservation.Themajorityofthesemeasuresarealsovitaltohelpaddressclimatechangeimpacts.

What can be done?Continuetoraiseawarenessofclimatechangeandadaptationoptions.•

Developanddistributeeducationalmaterialspecificallyaboutclimate•changeanditsimpactsontheWetTropics.

Enhanceexistingcommunitycapacitytoundertakeconservationworksto•reconnecthabitatandcontrolweedsandferalanimals.

Ensurecommunityinvolvementinregionalplanning.•

Provideincentivesforlandholderstoengageinbiodiversityconservationon•privatelands.

Facilitate,supportandchampioncoordinatedactiononadaptationinvolving•landmanagers,communitiesandgovernmentagencies.

Supportandchampioninitiativestoincreaseregionalcapacitytodealwith•thechallenge.

Promotecommunityinvolvementinclimatechangeandconservation•research.


57

5. References[1] DASETT(1987).Nomination of the Wet Tropical Rainforests of North-

east Australia by the Government of Australia for Inclusion in the World Heritage List.DepartmentofArts,Sport,theEnvironment,TourismandTerritories.Canberra.December1987.

[2] WTMA(2003).Periodic Report on the Application of the World Heritage Convention.SectionII.StateofConservationofSpecificWorldHeritageProperties.WetTropicsofQueensland.Attachment1:UpdateofOriginalNominationDossier.WetTropicsManagementAuthority.Cairns

[3] Colette,A.(ed.)(2007).Climate Change and World Heritage: Report on predicting and managing the impacts of climate change on World Heritage and Strategy to assist States Parties to implement appropriate management responses.UNESCOWorldHeritageCentre,Paris.

[4] UNESCO(2006).Strategy to Assist States Parties to Implement Appropriate Management Responses.UNESCOWorldHeritageCentre,Paris.

[5] UNESCO(2007).WorldHeritageReportsNo.22–Climate Change and World Heritage.UNESCOWorldHeritageCentre,Paris.

[6] UNESCO(2008).Policy Document on the Impacts of Climate Change on World Heritage Properties.UNESCOWorldHeritageCentre,Paris.

[7] UNESCO(2007).Case Studies on Climate Change and World Heritage. UNESCOWorldHeritageCentre,Paris.

[8] NaturalResourceManagementMinisterialCouncil(2004).National Biodiversity and Climate Change Action Plan 2004-2007.AustralianGovernment,DepartmentoftheEnvironmentandHeritage,Canberra.

[9] Hilbert,D.W.,Hughes,L.,Johnson,J.,Lough,J.M.,Low,T.,Pearson,R.G.,Sutherst,R.W.&Whittaker,S.(2007).Biodiversity Conservation Research in a Changing Climate.ReportproducedbytheCommonwealthScientificandIndustrialResearchOrganisation(CSIRO)fortheAustralianGovernmentDepartmentoftheEnvironmentandWaterResources.

[10] Taylor,M.&Figgis,P.(eds)(2007).Protected Areas: Buffering nature against climate change. ProceedingsofaWWFandIUCNWorldCommissiononProtectedAreassymposium,18-19June2007,Canberra.WWFAustralia,Sydney.

[11] DepartmentofInfrastructureandPlanning(2008).The Far North Queensland Draft Regional Plan 2025.QueenslandDepartmentofInfrastructureandPlanning,Cairns.

[12] MarineandTropicalSciencesResearchFacility(MTSRF).http://www.rrrc.org.au/mtsrf/index.html


58

[13] ReefandRainforestResearchCentre(RRRC).http://www.rrrc.org.au/about/index.html

[14] Suppiah,R.,Macadam,I.andWhetton,P.H.(2007).Climate Change Projections for the Tropical Rainforest Region of North Queensland.UnpublishedreporttotheMarineandTropicalSciencesResearchFacility.ReefandRainforestResearchCentreLimited,Cairns(38pp.).

[15] Walsh,K.,Hennessy,K.,McInnes,R.,Page,K.,Pittock,A.,Suppiah,R.&Whetton,P.(2001).Climate Change in Queensland Under Enhanced Greenhouse Conditions: ThirdAnnualReport,1999-2000.CSIROAtmosphericResearch,Aspendale,Victoria.

[16] McJannet,D.&Reddell,P.(2004).AcomparisonofthewaterbalanceofmountainrainforestsinAustraliawiththatofpastureandcoastalrainforests.Juvik,J.,Bruijnzeel,L.,Scatena,F.&Bubb,P.(eds).2ndInternationalSymposiumonTropicalMontaneCloudForests.

[17] Still,C.J.,Foster,N.F.&Schneider,S.H.(1999).Simulatingtheeffectsofclimatechangeontropicalmontanecloudforests.Nature 398:608-610.

[18] McInnes,K.L.,Walsh,K.J.E.&Pittock,A.B.(2000).Impact of sea level rise and storm surges on coastal resorts.CSIROTourismResearch.

[19] Krockenberger,A.K,Kitching,R.L.&Turton,S.M.(2003).Environmental Crisis: Climate Change and Terrestrial Biodiversity in Queensland. RainforestCRC,Cairns.

[20] Hilbert,D.,Ostendorf,B.&Hopkins,M.(2001).SensitivityoftropicalforeststoclimatechangeinthehumidtropicsofnorthQueensland.Austral Ecology 26:590-603.

[21] Williams,S.,Bolitho,E.&Fox,S.(2003).ClimatechangeinAustraliantropicalrainforests:Animpendingenvironmentalcatastrophe.Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B 270:1887-1893.

[22] Krockenberger,A.(2002).Atropicalrainforestpossumthatcan’ttaketheheat.ConferenceAbstractinEcology 2002: Handbook of the 2nd joint meeting of the Ecological Society of Australia Inc., and the New Zealand Ecological Society Inc.Cairns Qld 1-6 December.EcologicalSocietyofAustraliaInc.,Canberra.

[23] Root,T.,Price,J.,Hall,K.,Schneider,S.,Rosenzeig,C.&Pounds,J.(2003).Fingerprintsofglobalwarmingonwildanimalsandplants.Nature 421:57-60.

[24] Parmesan,C.&Yohe,G.(2003).Agloballycoherentfingerprintofclimatechangeimpactsacrossnaturalsystems.Nature 421:37-42.

[25] Kanowski,J.(2001).EffectsofelevatedCO2onthefoliarchemistryofseedlingsoftworainforesttreesfromnorth-eastAustralia:implicationsforfolivorousmarsupials.Aust. Ecol. 26:165-172.


59

[26] Howden,M.,Ash,A.,Barlow,S.,Booth,T.,Charles,S.,Cechet,R.,Crimp,S.,Gifford,R.,Hennessy,K.,Jones,R.,Kirschbaum,M.,McKeon,G.,Meinke,H.,Park,S.,Sutherst,R.,Webb,L.&Whetton,P.(2003).An overview of the adaptive capacity of the Australian agricultural sector to climate change – options, costs and benefits.CSIROSustainableEcosystems,Canberra.

[27] Walther,G.R.,Post,E.,Convey,P.,Menzel,A.,Parmesan,C.,Beebee,T.J.C.,Fromentin,J.,Hoegh-Guldberg,O.&Bairlein,F.(2002).Ecologicalresponsestoclimatechange.Nature 416:389-396.

[28] Dukes,J.(2003).Hotterandweedier?Effectsofclimatechangeonthesuccessofinvasivespecies.InGlobal Climate Change and Biodiversity,(eds)Green,R.,Harley,M.,Miles,L.,Scharlemann,J.,Watkinson,A.&Watts,O.TyndallCentreforClimateChangeResearch.

[29] WTMA(2003).Annual Report and State of the Wet Tropics Report 2002-2003.WetTropicsManagementAuthority,Cairns.

[30]Williams,S.E.&Pearson,R.G.(1997).Historicalrainforestcontractions,localizedextinctionsandpatternsofvertebrateendemismintherainforestsofAustralia’sWetTropics.Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 264:709-716.

[31] RainforestCRC(2003).Global Warming in the Wet Tropics.IssuesinTropicalForestLandscapes:Issue2August2003.RainforestCRC,Cairns.

[32] Williams,A.,Karoly,D.&Tapper,N.(2001).ThesensitivityofAustralianfiredangertoclimatechange.Climatic change 49:171-91.

[33] Hopkins,M.,Ash,J.,Graham,A.,Head,J.&Hewett,R.(1993).CharcoalevidenceofthespatialextentoftheEucalyptus woodlandexpansionsandrainforestcontractionsinnorthQueenslandduringthelatePleistocene.Journal of Biogeography 20:357-372.

[34] DeVantier,L.,Alcala,A.&Wilkinson,C.(2004).TheSulu-SulawesiSea:environmentalandsocioeconomicstatus,futureprognosisandameliorativepolicyoptions.Ambio 33:88–97.

[35] Folke,C.,Carpenter,S.,Elmqvist,T.,Gunderson,L.,Holling,C.S.&Walker,B.(2002).Resilienceandsustainabledevelopment:buildingadaptivecapacityinaworldoftransformations.Ambio 31:437–440.

[36] Nyström,M.,Folke,C.&Moberg,F.(2000).Coralreefdisturbanceandresilienceinahumandominatedenvironment.Trends in Ecology & Evolution 15:413–417.

[37] Knowlton,N.(1992).Thresholdsandmultiplestablestatesincoralreefcommunitydynamics.American Zoologist 32:674–682.

[38] Folke,C.(2006).Resilience:theemergenceofaperspectiveforsocial-ecologicalsystemsanalyses.Global Environmental Change 16:253–267.


60

[39] Folke,C.,Carpenter,S.,Walker,B.,Scheffer,M.,Elmqvist,T.,Gunderson,L.&Holling,C.S.(2004).Regimeshifts,resilience,andbiodiversityinecosystemmanagement.Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics 35:557–581.

[40] McClanahan,T.R.,Polunin,N.&Done,T.J.(2002).Ecologicalstatesandtheresilienceofcoralreefs.Conservation Ecology 6:18.

[41] IUCN(1988).WorldHeritageNomination–IUCNTechnicalEvaluationof486WetTropicalRainforestsofNorth-eastAustralia.

[42] Mackey,B.(2007).Climatechange,connectivityandbiodiversityconservation.In:Protected Areas: buffering nature against climate change. Proceedings of a WWF and IUCN World Commission on Protected Areas symposium, 18-19 June 2007, Canberra. (edsM.Taylor&P.Figgis)pp.90-96.WWF-Australia,Sydney.

[43] Beier,P.&Noss,R.F.(1998).Dohabitatcorridorsprovideconnectivity?Conservation Biology 12:1241–1252.

[44] Haddad,N.M.,Bowne,D.R.,Cunningham,A.,Danielson,B.J.,Levey,D.J.,Sargent,S.&Spira,T.(2003).Corridorusebydiversetaxa.Ecology 84:609–615.

[45] Rouget,M.,Cowling,R.M.,Lombard,A.T.,Knight,A.T.&Kerley,G.H.(2006).Designinglarge-scaleconservationcorridorsforpatternandprocess.Conservation Biology 20:549–561.

[46] Brown,J.H.&Gibson,A.C.(1983).Biogeography.C.V.MosbyCompany,St.LouisMO.

[47] Gitay,H.,Suarez,A.,Watson,R.T.,Dokken,D.J.(2002).Climate change and biodiversity.IntergovernmentalpanelonclimatechangeIPCCTechnicalPaperV.

[48]MarsdenJacobAssociates(2007)Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Wet Tropics Region: A Preliminary Inventory,Cairns.

[49] WTMA(2004).Wet Tropics Conservation Strategy: the conservation, rehabilitation and transmission to future generations of the Wet Tropics World Heritage Area.WetTropicsManagementAuthority,Cairns.

[50] OfficeofClimateChange(2008).Climate Change in Queensland: What the science is telling us.EnvironmentalProtectionAgency.Brisbane.

[51] Heath,Lance(2008)Garnaut Climate Change Review - Impacts of climate change on Australia’s World Heritage properties and their values.ANUInstituteforEnvironment.AustralianNationalUniversity,Canberra.Athttp://www.garnautreport.org.au/draft.htm.

[52] CommonwealthofAustralia(2008)Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme Green Paper.DepartmentofClimateChange,Canberra.Athttp://www.climatechange.gov.au/greenpaper/report/index.html.

POBox2050,Cairns,Qld4870

Tel:0740520555 Fax:0740311364

Email:[email protected] Website:www.wettropics.gov.au

climate change - wet tropics

Documents