climate change,global drivers & local decision makers: translational research for adaptation
TRANSCRIPT
Climate change, global drivers & local decision makers: Translational research for adaptation
Milton Kengo, KALRO Jere Gilles, MUElizabeth Jimenez, UMSA Cecilia Turin, CIP
ICAE 2015
Corinne Valdivia, University of Missouri
Panel: Does Gender Matter In Climate Change Adaptation: Evidence from Africa, Latin America and Asia
ID 1139/3
Roadmap
1. Translational Approach: Why & How 2. The Andes: research for adaptation3. Kenya: knowledge & livelihoods 4. Take away
1. Translational Research: Why & How
Women and men farmers make decisions every day that impact the livelihoods and wellbeing of their families in rural communities. Meaningful knowledge: relevant, in the language and context of the decision maker, and from a trusted source. A necessary condition, but is it sufficient?
Why? because there are significant and fast paced changes going on that are creating new conditions that can’t be dealt solely with local or scientific knowledge
How? Systematically engaging with local decision makers and other stakeholders in understanding the issues, framing the research, and devising alternatives
Lessons from Kenya and the AndesC. Valdivia, MU 4
WHY
Project: Climate Variability and Household Welfare In the AndesC. Valdivia, MU 5
Local knowledge in the Andes has informed adaptation for centuries
Socio-ecological Scales Capabilities
Interdisciplinary & participatory; drivers, feedback loops & thresholds; Sustainable Livelihoods; Governance & Institutions.
Shared understanding of system dynamics
Transformationalapproaches
HOW
2. The Andes: research for adaptation
Altiplano Landscapes & Livelihoods
Perceptions of Risks, Northern Altiplano: 1 not a threat to my livelihood2 a threat to my livelihood4 a very strong threat5 an extreme threat
Index
Impact of frosts 4.35
Impact of floods 4.42
Loss of soil fertility 3.44
Impact of a changing climate 3.87
North Altiplano Communities Family Income: Ag & Non Ag AverageTotal Income (cash & in-kind) $3,493
Education 7.5 Years
Farming land in fallow 4.78 Has
Bolivia Central Altiplano, semiarid Dairy & potato markets, diversified livelihoods, able to cope with high losses in crops, high capitals, the better off.
Valdivia C., E. Jiménez and A. Romero. 2007. El Impacto de los Cambios Climáticos y de Mercado en Comunidades Campesinas del Altiplano de La Paz. Umbrales. 16 (December): 233-262.
80% of families lost crops to pests
50% experienced losses due to frost50% lost animals to diseases
Perceptions of Risks, Northern Altiplano: 1 not a threat to my livelihood2 a threat to my livelihood4 a very strong threat5 an extreme threat
Index
Impact of frosts 4.06
Impact of pests 4.11
Loss of soil fertility 4.00
Impact of a changing climate 4.17
North Altiplano Communities Family Income: Ag & Non Ag Average
Total Income (cash & in-kind) $627
Education 5.4 Years
Farming land in fallow 0.5 Has
Northern Altiplano families with low income & risks threatening livelihoods have very high feelings of dread
Valdivia C., E. Jiménez and A. Romero. 2007. El Impacto de los Cambios Climáticos y de Mercadoen Comunidades Campesinas del Altiplano de La Paz. Umbrales. 16 (December): 233-262
The likelihood of taking chances with new knowledge is very low when living in a context of uncertainty and food insecurity
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Climate Social & Market Hazards Risk Perceptions
Climate risk perceptions were higher in Umala, consistent with higher observed risks.More diversified the income, lower perceptions of risk.Access to credit only lowered perceptions of risk of frost.Higher feelings of dread -> higher the risk perceptions.Location/geography significant in risk perceptions for frost and floods.Gender (females have more dread than males), and location are significant in explaining drought risk perceptions.(Rees, 2009)
Both women and men felt no or almost no control during droughts, frosts, and changing climate events impacting crops or animals. North Altiplano: Ancoraimes Central Altiplano: Umala Event Chincha Calahua Cohani Chojña SanJo SanJuan Vinto Kellhu N=80 N=20 N=30 N=28 N=80 N=27 N=27 N=25 Hail Female 2.20 2.00 1.37 1.61 1.49 2.19 1.63 1.64 Male 2.10 1.55 1.20 1.89 1.56 1.81 1.70 1.48 Frosts Female 2.00 2.00 1.33 1.21 0.99 1.67 1.44 1.64 Male 1.90 1.95 1.20 1.43 1.01 1.44 1.52 1.44 Drought Female 1.66 1.10 0.93 0.79 0.93 1.67 1.19 1.32 Male 1.43 1.15 0.80 0.89 0.95 1.48 1.26 1.40 Flood Female 1.50 1.15 1.30 1.14 1.41 1.81 1.26 1.48 Male 1.41 1.15 1.07 1.21 1.54 2.04 1.22 1.68 Changing Female 1.40 1.10 1.27 1.11 1.29 1.44 1.37 1.32 Climate Male 1.29 0.95 1.03 1.18 1.43 1.33 1.15 1.32
Scale: 1 = no control at all2 = almost no control3 = not sure about control4 = can be controlled a little5= completely under control
Frost:189 female had no control164 males had no controlDrought:221 females had no control192 males had no control
This is consistent with the high sense of dread, especially frosts, droughts and a changing climate
Location
North Altiplano: Ancoraimes Central Altiplano: Umala Chincha Calahua Cohani Chojña SanJo SanJuan Vinto Kellhu
Event N=80 N=20 N=30 N=28 N=80 N=27 N=27 N=25 Hail Female 2.69 2.10 2.77 2.14 2.51 2.48 2.30 1.84
Male 2.24 1.95 2.27 1.96 2.35 2.15 2.19 1.84 Frosts Female 2.66 2.35 2.77 2.29 2.49 2.52 2.26 1.92
Male 2.26 2.10 2.33 2.11 2.36 2.41 2.22 1.88 Drought Female 2.68 2.35 2.70 2.25 2.51 2.56 2.26 2.00
Male 2.38 2.10 2.27 2.00 2.35 2.41 2.11 1.88 Flood Female 2.51 1.70 2.43 1.86 2.36 2.11 2.04 1.80
Male 2.16 1.50 1.83 1.46 2.10 1.96 1.81 1.64 Changing Climate
Female 2.58 2.15 2.60 2.04 2.40 2.30 1.93 1.84 Male 2.25 1.85 2.07 1.82 2.25 2.19 2.00 1.88
Scale :1 a risk that does not worry; 2 no sure how she/he would feel; 3 scares or frights him/her tremendously
Frost:244 females expressed fear or fright 213 males expressed fear or frightDrought:247 females expressed fear or fright214 males expressed fear or fright
Changing Climate:202 females expressed fear or fright177 males expressed fear or fright
Feelings about control of environmental & market events are also low, with local differences
Location North Altiplano: Ancoraimes Central Altiplano: Umala Chincha Calahua Cohani Chojña SanJo SanJuan Vinto Kellhu
Event N=80 N=20 N=30 N=28 N=80 N=27 N=27 N=25 Pests Female 2.14 2.55 1.67 1.89 2.26 2.89 2.15 1.92
Male 2.00 2.05 1.70 1.86 2.21 2.33 1.89 2.12 Livestock Diseases
Female 2.30 2.40 1.77 1.61 2.05 2.78 2.41 2.12 Male 2.04 2.00 1.50 1.79 2.19 2.81 2.26 2.16
Soil, Low Fertility
Female 2.14 2.50 2.43 2.36 1.86 2.67 2.56 2.48 Male 2.23 2.25 1.67 2.00 2.23 2.33 2.59 2.24
Scale from 1 = no control at all to 5= completely under control
Location North Altiplano: Ancoraimes Central Altiplano: Umala Chincha Calahua Cohani Chojña SanJo SanJuan Vinto Kellhu
Event N=80 N=20 N=30 N=28 N=80 N=27 N=27 N=25 Livestock Female 2.20 1.30 1.30 1.36 1.49 2.26 2.22 2.08 Low price Male 1.93 1.10 1.13 1.39 1.46 2.37 2.00 1.72 Crops Female 2.04 1.40 1.23 1.57 1.51 2.33 2.00 1.72 Low price Male 1.86 1.35 1.13 1.61 1.59 2.30 1.81 1.52 Employment Female 2.18 1.85 1.80 1.68 1.38 2.52 2.30 2.52 Loss Male 1.91 1.70 1.43 1.43 1.34 2.22 2.04 2.48 Blockades Female 1.90 2.00 2.37 1.96 1.71 1.89 1.85 1.76 Male 1.80 1.60 1.57 1.39 1.71 1.96 1.41 1.64
Scale from 1 = no control at all to 5= completely under control
North Altiplano: Ancoraimes Central Altiplano: Umala Event Chincha Calahua Cohani Chojña SanJo SanJuan Vinto Kellhu N=80 N=20 N=30 N=28 N=80 N=27 N=27 N=25 Children Female 2.23 1.70 1.73 1.79 1.63 3.22 2.44 2.80 get sick Male 2.09 1.60 1.53 1.71 1.73 2.96 2.37 2.16 Adult Female 2.14 2.00 1.63 1.61 1.69 2.78 2.11 2.52 gets sick Male 2.00 1.85 1.40 1.93 1.64 2.70 2.04 2.64
North Altiplano: Ancoraimes Central Altiplano: Umala Event Chincha Calahua Cohani Chojña SanJo SanJuan Vinto Kellhu N=80 N=20 N=30 N=28 N=80 N=27 N=27 N=25 Children Female 2.64 2.15 2.47 2.04 2.40 2.48 2.26 2.04 Get sick Male 2.23 1.75 1.80 1.82 2.30 2.26 2.00 1.72 Adult Female 2.68 2.05 2.37 1.93 2.41 2.33 2.07 1.88 Get sick Male 2.31 2.00 1.80 1.79 2.30 2.11 1.96 1.84 Scale from 1 a risk that does not worry; 2 no sure how she/he would feel; 3 scares or frights him or her tremendously
… consistent with high levels of dread about shocks to household wellbeing.
Low levels of control are also felt regarding shocks to household wellbeing…
Illampu, Bolivia 2009
In the past 50 years the temperature in thisregion increased 1 degree Celsius(Seth et al. Annals of Geography, 2010)
Projections of Climate Changeby 2090: the Altiplano will dryer in Spring, wetter in Summer4 degree Celsius increase in temperature!(Thibeault et al. J. Geophysical Research, 2010)
We find that access to land (in most cases) and to labor, diversification, & social networks contribute to household resilience, which is not necessarily ecosystem resilience. Livestock has multiple roles, and can contribute to resilience,especially soil amendments; though off-farm/non rural employment threatens ecosystem resilience. (Jensen and Valdivia)C. Valdivia, MU 15
More loss of soil moisture by end of the century, even during the wetter rainy season.(Thibeault, J., A. Seth, and M. Garcia. 2010. Changing climatein the Altiplano: CMIP3 projections for temperature and precipitation extremes. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres)
Pachamama
Soils are a key resource, the natural capital, Pachamama
Aguilera, J., P. P. Motavalli, et al. 2012. Initial and Residual Effects of Organic and Inorganic Amendments on Soil Properties. American Journal of Experimental Agriculture 2(4):641-666.Motavalli, P., J. Aguilera, et al. (In press) Communications in Soil Science and Plant Analysis Gomez- Montano, L., A. Jumpponen, M. A. Gonzales, J. Cusicanqui, C. Valdivia, P. Motavalli, M. Herman, K. Garrett. 2013. Soil Biology and Biochemistry
Why & how?
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Institutions matter in how we engage
Participation in Soils Research by Income Groups in the Altiplano in 2007 & 2008 (%) (Valdivia, Gilles & Garcia, 2010) In numbers and diversity of income quintiles, the approach of engaging with the community organizations was more inclusive.
Two-way participatory communication & research can enhance trust in new knowledge, and also inform barriers to adaptation Institutions matter for inclusion A process that engages farmers, researchers, public officials,
universities & other stakeholders that builds capacities and networks of collaboration Creating meaningful knowledge in a context of uncertainty and
vulnerability requires systematic engagement and collaboration through participatory processes, with key institutions.
3. Translational research process to understand the benefits risks and unintended consequences of GM Cassava in Kenya
1. Learning about the local knowledge systems to build new knowledge.2. Participatory processes, training on approaches to understand farmers contexts, livelihoods, concerns, and knowledge about GM.3. A translational research process and new community of practice: interdisciplinary, collaborative that engages stakeholders.
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Participatory research with farmer groups
Participatory feedback process with farmers and local scientists
6. Information in the context of the decision
makers: vulnerable, secure, women and men
1. Understanding the vulnerability context and
insecurity
2. Livelihood Strategies the role of cassava
varieties
3. Access to information, trusted sources &
technologies
5. Information sharing with scientists for
feedback to farmers
Translational Research
The process of developing knowledgein the context of thesmallholder farmers C. Valdivia, MU 19
Vulnerability assessment with the group of women farmers in Basi-Mwangaza
in Kilifi, The Coast
Recalling shocks since the 1990s
Recalling the impacts of the shocks
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Translational research enhanced farmers’ voices in defining innovation
demands
Learnt about contexts, farmers, fragmentation, shocks, vulnerabilities, livelihood strategies, and cassava, from the perspectives of women and men.Facilitated mutual learning between farmers and local cassava expert scientists.Developed trust by responding to farmers information needs.Women and men’s preferences differed by socioeconomic status as well as the nature of the networks and activities they wanted to engage in.Farmer representatives, local officials, scientists, stakeholders, met to learn about GM cassava, farmers needs, and how to communicate.
(Valdivia et al, 2014)
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4. Takeaway
Lessons learned about what works for climate change adaptation
Work explicitly with community organizations including the vulnerable and in particular women.Community approach reduces government transaction costs
as these are legally-recognized entities. Landscape scale projects, such as water or carbon
sequestration, require collaboration across communities. Able to work with higher-scale governance institutions.A diverse group may benefit the vulnerable, especially the
poor. Better-off are convened by the authority and ensure that they and their networks are represented. The poor benefit from communal plots, especially during harvests.Processes that facilitate articulation with higher scales of
governance to access information and resources are key to support adaptive capacities.
Gender, cultural, and socioeconomic lenses matter
• Adaptation takes place locally, and local contexts shape how women and men in rural communities negotiate transformational changes.
• Processes that strengthen the human, cultural, social, and political capitals to adapt are essential, and especially for women.
• In order to build resilience, local and public actors must work together in ways that are sensitive to gender, value local knowledge, and empower local communities.
Thank you!
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSThe families in 11 rural communities of the Altiplano in Bolivia and Peru, and the team of researchers, faculty and students in universities and organizations, in Bolivia Peru and the USA, collaborating through the SANREM CRSP Adapting to Change in the Andes project, funded by Title XII USAID support, through the SANREM CRSP.Team of researchers, students, extension officers, community leaders, and the 209 smallholder farmers, 139 women & 70 men, who contributed their knowledge and time. To the Templeton Foundation, The Kenya Agricultural Research Institute, and the University of Missouri Assistance Program in Kenya for facilitating our work in the field. To the team, Harvey James, Bill Folk, Dekha Sheikh and Violet Gathaara, Kengo Danda, Charles Bett, Festus Murithi, Grace Mbure, in Kenya.
Selected Journal Articles• Valdivia, C., J. Gilles, and C. Turin. 2013. Andean Pastoral Women in a Changing World: Challenges and Opportunities. Rangelands. 35(6): 75-81.• Gomez- Montano, L., A. Jumpponen, M. A. Gonzales, J. Cusicanqui, C. Valdivia, P. Motavalli, M. Herman, K. Garrett. 2013. Do bacterial and
fungal communities in soils of the Bolivian Altiplano change under shorter fallow periods? Soil Biology and Biochemistry.65: 50-59.• Valdivia, C., M. K. Danda, D. Sheikh, H. S. James, V. Gathaara, G. Mbure, F. Murithi and W. Folk. 2014. Using translational research to enhance
farmers’ voice: a case study of the potential introduction of GM cassava in Kenya’s coast. Ag and Human Values. 31 (4): 673-681. • Gilles, J. and C. Valdivia. 2009. Local Forecast Communication in the Altiplano. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS). 90
(January 1): 85-91.• Seth, A., J. Thibeault, M. Garcia, and C. Valdivia. 2010. Making sense of 21st century climate change in the Altiplano: Observed trends and
projections. Annals Association of American Geographers. First published 12 August 2010 (iFirst). DOI: 10.1080/00045608.2010.500193 • Valdivia, C., A. Seth, J. Gilles, M. García, E. Jiménez, E. Yucra, J. Cusicanqui and F. Navia. 2010. Adapting to Climate Change in Andean
Ecosystems: Landscapes, Capitals, and Perceptions Linking Rural Livelihood Strategies and Linking Knowledge Systems. Annals of the Association of American Geographers. DOI: 10.1080/00045608.2010.500198
• Valdivia C., E. Jiménez and A. Romero. 2007. El Impacto de los Cambios Climáticos y de Mercado en Comunidades Campesinas del Altiplano de La Paz. (The impact of climate and market changes in peasant communities of the Altiplano of La Paz). Umbrales. Ediciones Plural, La Paz Bolivia. 16 (December): 233-262.
• Thibeault, J., A. Seth, and M. Garcia. 2010. Changing climate in the Altiplano: CMIP3 projections for temperature and precipitation extremes. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres DOI:10.1029/2009JD012718.
• Gilles, J., J. Thomas, C. Valdivia, and E. Yucra Sea.2013. Where are the Laggards? Conservers of traditional knowledge in Bolivia. Rural Sociology.
• Aguilera, J., P. P. Motavalli, M. A. Gonzales, and C. Valdivia. 2012. Initial and Residual Effects of Organic and Inorganic Amendments on Soil Properties in a Potato-Based Cropping System in the Bolivian Andean Highlands. American Journal of Experimental Agriculture 2(4):641-666.
• Garrett, K.A., A. Dobson, J. Kroschel, B. Natarajan, S. Orlandini, S. Randolph, H. E. Z. Tonnang, and C. Valdivia. 2013. The effects of climate variability and the color of weather tie series on agricultural diseases and pests, and on decisions for their management. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 170: 216–227 On-line: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2021.04.018.
• Garrett, K. A., G. A. Forbes, S. Savary, P. Skelsey, A. H. Sparks, C. Valdivia, A. H. C. van Bruggen, L. Willocquet, A. Djurle, E. Duveiller, H. Eckersten, S. Pande, C. Vera Cruz, and J. Yuen. 2011. Complexity in Climate Change Impacts: An Analytical Framework for Effects Mediated by Plant Disease. Plant Pathology. 60: 15-30.
• Motavalli, P., J. Aguilera, M. Gonzales and C. Valdivia. (accepted) Evaluation of a Rapid Field Test Method for Assessing N Status in Potato PlantTissue to Improve N Fertility Management in Rural Communities in The Bolivia Andean Highlands. Communications in Soil Science and Plant Analysis
• Gomez- Montano, L., A. Jumpponen, M. A. Gonzales, J. Cusicanqui, C. Valdivia, P. Motavalli, M. Herman, K. Garrett. (accepted) Do bacterial and fungal communities in soils of the Bolivian Altiplano change under shorter fallow periods? Soil Biology and Biochemistry
• Jensen, N. 2010. Exploring the relationship between livelihood dimensions and socioeconological resielience in the Bolivian Altiplano. MS Thesis, University of Missouri.
• Reese, L. 2009. What is the impact of livelihood strategies on farmers climate risk perceptions in the Bolivian highlands. MS Thesis, University of Missouri.
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