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Climate driven changes in European vegetation as simulated by the LPJ-GUESS
Preliminary results of VR LANDCLIM project
Anneli Poska, Ben Smith, Dörte Lehsten
Preliminary results of VR LANDCLIM project: input a nd parameterisation
RCA based simulation of European vegetation
� DVGM: LPJ-Guess v. 2.1 in cohort mode (migration and land use are not implemented);
� Climate and CO2 parameters: RCA (Rossby Centre Regional Atmospheric Model) data for two time-slices (6000 BP and 1800 AD);
� Soil data: soil texture code from CRU database;� PFT parametrisation: standard, species based setup for
Europe (Hickler et al 2010).
� Dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) attempt to describe patterns and trends in vegetation structure and functioning based on a representation of basic ecosystem processes, their interactions and response to abiotic drivers
� LPJ – DGVM (Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model, Sitch et al., 2003) is a generalized, process-based model of vegetation dynamics and biogeochemistry designed for global applications.
� LPJ - Guess (General Ecosystem Simulator, Smith et al., 2001) uses individual based ”gap-model” approach and is optimised to study regional changes on decennial-centennial timescales.
Dynamic vegetation models (DVM)
LPJ-GUESS: A modular, individual-based process-orie nted ecosystem model*
*Smith et al. 2001 Global Ecology and Biogeography 10: 621
Soil organicmatter
Soil biogeochemistry
Populationdynamics
& disturbance
Physiology,phenology& growth
Vegetation
Climate(temp, prec, radiation)
CO2 Soil textureStand (grid cell)
Plant Functional Types (PFTs)
� PFT (Plant Functional Types) are used by DGVMs for vegetation representation. PFT is a term that groups plants according to their function in ecosystem and their use of resources and can embrace:
� Taxonomic groups such as willows, maples, sedges or grasses;� Groups based on life-form characteristics e.g., trees, shrubs, herbs,
lianas, graminoids, etc.� Groups based on specific combination of physiological,
morphological, biochemical and bioclimatic properties e.g., boreal evergreen shade intolerant tree.
Average individual for plant functional typeor species cohort in patch
Modelled area (stand)10 ha - 2500 km2
replicate patches in variousstages of development
Patch0.1 ha
tree grass
crown area
height
fine roots
leaves
LAI
sapwoodheartwood
0-50 cm50-100 cm
leaves / LAI
fineroots
stemdiameter
crown area
height
fine roots
leaves
LAI
sapwoodheartwoodsapwoodheartwood
0-50 cm50-100 cm
leaves / LAI
fineroots
stemdiameter
LPJ-GUESS: Representation of vegetation (cohort mod e)
Average individual for plant functional typeor species cohort in patch
Modelled area (stand)10 ha - 2500 km2
replicate patches in variousstages of development
Patch0.1 ha
tree grass
crown area
height
fine roots
leaves
LAI
sapwoodheartwood
0-50 cm50-100 cm
leaves / LAI
fineroots
stemdiameter
crown area
height
fine roots
leaves
LAI
sapwoodheartwoodsapwoodheartwood
0-50 cm50-100 cm
leaves / LAI
fineroots
stemdiameter
Average individual for plant functional typeor species cohort in patch
Modelled area (stand)10 ha - 2500 km2
replicate patches in variousstages of development
Patch0.1 ha
tree grass
crown area
height
fine roots
leaves
LAI
sapwoodheartwood
0-50 cm50-100 cm
leaves / LAI
fineroots
stemdiameter
crown area
height
fine roots
leaves
LAI
sapwoodheartwoodsapwoodheartwood
0-50 cm50-100 cm
leaves / LAI
fineroots
stemdiameter
Parameter
max establishment rate (ha −−−−1 yr −−−−1)
bioclimatic distribution
leaf:sapwood area ratio (m 2 cm −−−−2)
leaf phenology
crown spreading
boreal
evergreen
0.3
150
1250
temperate
summergreen
0.4
250
1250
boreal-temperate
summergreen
0.4
250
2500
no limits
summergreen-raingreen
-
-
-
LPJ-GUESS: Plant Functional Types (PFTs)
� LPJ-GUESS uses two types of PFT groupings:
� Taxonomic (species based);� Physiological, morphological and bioclimatic properties based.
VR LANDCLIM project: Bioclimatic variables
Tw
min
(ºC
)T
cmin
(ºC
)
VR LANDCLIM project: Bioclimatic variables
Sw
cont
GD
D5
VR LANDCLIM project: Bioclimatic niche ( Picea abies)
RCA 6000 BP
PFT: Picea abies(global PFT: TBE1)
Bioclimatic limits:tcmin_est -30tcmax_est -1.5twmin_est 5gdd5min_est 600
Tcmin(ºC) Twmin(ºC)
GDD5 Cover fraction
VR LANDCLIM project: Bioclimatic niche ( Fagus sylvatica)
RCA 6000 BP
PFT: Fagus sylvatica(global PFT: TBS)
Bioclimatic limits:tcmin_est -3.5tcmax_est 6twmin_est 5gdd5min_est 1500
Tcmin(ºC) Twmin(ºC)
GDD5 Cover fraction
VR LANDCLIM project: LPJ-GUESS output
6000
BP
1800
AD
Dominant global PFT Dominant RCA PFT Veg. cover fraction
� Migration (based on preliminary results of ECOCHANGE project)
� Picea abies� Fagus sylvatica
� Land-use� Kaplan (Kaplan et al 2009)� HYDE (Klein Goldewijk 2001)
VR LANDCLIM project: Post-processing
VR LANDCLIM project: Post-processing (migration)
RCA 6000 BP PFT: Picea abies (global: TBE1)
Cover fraction Predicted migration Corrected cover fraction
VR LANDCLIM project: Post-processing (migration)
6000
BP
1800
AD
Global PFT RCA PFT Veg. cover fraction
VR LANDCLIM project: Post-processing (land use)
6000
BP
1800
AD
HYDE Kaplan
VR LANDCLIM project: Post-processing (Kaplan land u se)
6000
BP
1800
AD
Global PFT RCA PFT Veg. cover fraction
VR LANDCLIM project: Land-cover for RCA
6000
BP
1800
ADOriginal Migration Migration and landuse
Thank You!