Climate & EcosystemsProgram

Kenric OsgoodOffice of Science & Technology

National Marine Fisheries ServiceNOAA

Performance Objective:Understand and predict the consequences of climate variability and change on marine ecosystems.

Climate Strategy:Develop the ability to predict the consequences of climate change on ecosystems by monitoring changes in coastal and marine ecosystems, conducting research on climate-ecosystem linkages, and incorporating climate information into physical-biological models.

Climate & Ecosystems

End-State:

An ability to predict probable consequences of climate change on ecological systems enabling improved management of living marine resources

Requirements:

Monitor, understand and predict the impacts of global climate change on marine and coastal ecosystems.

• Improve management of marine fisheries, marine mammals and protected marine species by accounting for the impacts of climate variability and change on marine systems and their living marine resources.

• Evaluate and provide forecasts of climate impacts on coastal ecosystems, including coral ecosystems, and provide the ability to predict future impacts.

Capabilities:

Monitor changes in coastal and marine ecosystems

Develop biophysical indicators and models

Climate & Ecosystems

Climate & Ecosystems

Unique Role of Program:

NOAA has management responsibilities for coastal and living marine resources, including marine fisheries and protected marine species.

No other program within NOAA has the responsibility to account for ecosystem responses to climate variability/change.

Products/Climate Services:

Delivery to living marine resource and coastal zone managers the knowledge and tools needed to incorporate climate variability/change into the management of coastal and living marine resources.

- Indices- Models

Climate & Ecosystems

Highlights/Past Successes:

North Pacific Climate Regimes and Ecosystem Productivity (NPCREP)

Climate & Ecosystems

Activities within the Program

Role of the competitive programs

Climate & Ecosystems

Impact of FY05 and FY06 Budget on Program Activities

Role of internal/external funding

Priorities for the Program based on the FY05 and FY06 Budget

Climate & Ecosystems

Future directions for the ProgramFY07-13 under constrained budget

Continue North Pacific Climate Regimes & Ecosystem Productivity

Build a competitive component to the Climate & Ecosystems Program.

Expand the scope of the Climate & Ecosystems Program.

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

PDO

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Coho Salmon

YEAR1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Percent Survival0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

PDO

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

Amomaly of

No. of adults (thousands)

returning to spawn

Spring Chinook Salmonmean = 108,000 The anomaly of

counts of Chinook salmon at the Bonneville Dam.

Percent of coho salmon that return to their hatcheries.

These returns are “linked to the PDO”

During cold phase of the PDO salmon do well and vice versa

Migration pattern of Pacific sardines and Pacific hake, redrawn from Saunders and McFarlane 1997. Idealized conditions are indicated, since the extent and location of spawning and feeding habitats, and the coastal migrations of hake and sardine vary with ocean and climate conditions.

Is marsh building adequate to keep pace with subsidence and sea-level rise?

Widespread Thermal Stress and Coral Bleaching • Thermal stress in the Caribbean reached record-breaking levels• Severe coral bleaching throughout the eastern Caribbean (~ 25% mortality)

2005 CARIBBEAN EVENT

0 20 40 60 80 100 Percent

Percent Coral Cover BleachedCaribbean ‘05 DHW Annual Composite

• Coupling retrospective analysis with SST forecast models, Bleaching Forecasts would allow researchers to plan accelerated monitoring and managers to take actions to reduce other stressors

Degree Heating Weeks (DHWs)

1998

blea

chin

g

2005

ble

achi

ng

Coral Reef Bleaching Forecasts

A Changing Thermal Regime for Marine Ecosystems

Benthic marine calcifiers

Shell dissolution in live pteropod

A Changing Chemical Regime for Marine Ecosystems

• As ocean saturation state decreases, a concomitant reduction in calcification rates can occur.

– Reduced extension rates– Weaker skeletons

• Monitoring changes in marine ecosystems in response to ocean acidification will demand improving our ecosystem observing capabilities at multiple scales.

Ocean AcidificationThat ‘other’ CO2 problem

Climate and EutrophicationSeven year correlation between monthly averaged

precipitation and chlorophyll anomalies along SE coast.Shown below: data for February 1998