climate forcing due to the 8200 cal yr bp event observed...

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Climate forcing due to the 8200 cal yr BP event observed at Early Neolithic sites in the eastern Mediterranean Bernhard Weninger a, , Eva Alram-Stern b , Eva Bauer c , Lee Clare a , Uwe Danzeglocke a , Olaf Jöris d , Claudia Kubatzki e , Gary Rollefson f , Henrieta Todorova g , Tjeerd van Andel h a Universität zu Köln, Institut für Ur- und Frühgeschichte, Radiocarbon Laboratory, Weyertal 125, D-50923 Köln b Mykenische Kommission, Österreichische Akademie der Wissenschaften, Postgasse 7/St.1/1.St., A-1010 Wien c Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg A26, D-14412 Potsdam d Römisch Germanisches Zentralmuseum Mainz, Forschungsbereich Altsteinzeit, Schloβ Monrepos, D-56567 Neuwied e Previously: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg A26, D-14412 Potsdam. Now: Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Bussestrasse 24, D-27570 Bremerhaven f Whitman College, Department of Anthropology, 345 Boyer Avenue, Walla Walla, Washington, DC 99362, USA g Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Archaeological Institute and Museum, Saborna, 2, BG-1 000 Sofia h University of Cambridge, Department of Earth Sciences, Downing Street, GB-Cambridge CB2 Received 23 February 2005 Available online 20 September 2006 Abstract We explore the hypothesis that the abrupt drainage of Laurentide lakes and associated rapid switch of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation 8200 yr ago had a catastrophic influence on Neolithic civilisation in large parts of southeastern Europe, Anatolia, Cyprus, and the Near East. The event at 8200 cal yr BP is observed in a large number of high-resolution climate proxies in the Northern Hemisphere, and in many cases corresponds to markedly cold and arid conditions. We identify the relevant archaeological levels of major Neolithic settlements in Central Anatolia, Cyprus, Greece and Bulgaria, and examine published stratigraphic, architectural, cultural and geoarchaeological studies for these sites. The specific archaeological events and processes we observe at a number of these sites during the study interval 84008000 cal yr BP lead us to refine some previously established Neolithisation models. The introduction of farming to South-East Europe occurs in all study regions (Thrace, Macedonia, Thessaly, Bulgaria) near 8200 cal yr BP. We observe major disruptions of Neolithic cultures in the Levant, North Syria, South-East Anatolia, Central Anatolia and Cyprus, at the same time. We conclude that the 8200 cal yr BP aridity event triggered the spread of early farmers, by different routes, out of West Asia and the Near East into Greece and Bulgaria. © 2006 University of Washington. All rights reserved. Keywords: 8200 cal yr BP event; Radiocarbon; Neolithisation Introduction Greenland ice core records have revealed that 8200 yr ago, temperatures in the North Atlantic region decreased abruptly, and then subsequently recovered, during an interval of about 200 yr. A large number of contemporaneous climate events are documented in terrestrial records in North America (Yu and Eicher, 1999; Spooner et al., 2002), the Caribbean (Hughen et al., 2000), Europe (Von Grafenstein et al., 1999; McDermott et al., 2001; Schmidt and Gruhle, 2003; Tinner and Lotter, 2001; Klitgaard-Kristensen et al., 1998), Africa (Gasse, 2000), and Western Asia (Siani et al., 2001; Arz et al., 2003). In central Greenland the surface air temperature dropped by 36°C (from δ 18 O ice e.g. Johnsen et al., 2001), and perhaps up to 7.4°C (Leuenberger et al., 1999, from 15 N of N 2 measurements in the GRIP ice core). A reduction in air temperature of this magnitude is likely to be linked with drier conditions and stronger winds over the North Atlantic and drier monsoon regions (Alley et al., 1997; Bauer et al., 2004). According to Barber et al. (1999), the observed cooling was caused by a catastrophic collapse of the last remaining ice dome Quaternary Research 66 (2006) 401 420 www.elsevier.com/locate/yqres Corresponding author. E-mail address: [email protected] (B. Weninger). 0033-5894/$ - see front matter © 2006 University of Washington. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.yqres.2006.06.009

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  • (2006) 401420www.elsevier.com/locate/yqres

    Quaternary Research 66

    Climate forcing due to the 8200 cal yr BP event observed at Early Neolithicsites in the eastern Mediterranean

    Bernhard Weninger a,, Eva Alram-Stern b, Eva Bauer c, Lee Clare a, Uwe Danzeglocke a,Olaf Jris d, Claudia Kubatzki e, Gary Rollefson f, Henrieta Todorova g, Tjeerd van Andel h

    a Universitt zu Kln, Institut fr Ur- und Frhgeschichte, Radiocarbon Laboratory, Weyertal 125, D-50923 Klnb Mykenische Kommission, sterreichische Akademie der Wissenschaften, Postgasse 7/St.1/1.St., A-1010 Wien

    c Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg A26, D-14412 Potsdamd Rmisch Germanisches Zentralmuseum Mainz, Forschungsbereich Altsteinzeit, Schlo Monrepos, D-56567 Neuwied

    e Previously: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg A26, D-14412 Potsdam. Now: Alfred-Wegener-Institut,Bussestrasse 24, D-27570 Bremerhaven

    f Whitman College, Department of Anthropology, 345 Boyer Avenue, Walla Walla, Washington, DC 99362, USAg Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Archaeological Institute and Museum, Saborna, 2, BG-1 000 Sofia

    h University of Cambridge, Department of Earth Sciences, Downing Street, GB-Cambridge CB2

    Received 23 February 2005Available online 20 September 2006

    Abstract

    We explore the hypothesis that the abrupt drainage of Laurentide lakes and associated rapid switch of the North Atlantic thermohalinecirculation 8200 yr ago had a catastrophic influence on Neolithic civilisation in large parts of southeastern Europe, Anatolia, Cyprus, and the NearEast. The event at 8200 cal yr BP is observed in a large number of high-resolution climate proxies in the Northern Hemisphere, and in many casescorresponds to markedly cold and arid conditions. We identify the relevant archaeological levels of major Neolithic settlements in CentralAnatolia, Cyprus, Greece and Bulgaria, and examine published stratigraphic, architectural, cultural and geoarchaeological studies for these sites.The specific archaeological events and processes we observe at a number of these sites during the study interval 84008000 cal yr BP lead us torefine some previously established Neolithisation models. The introduction of farming to South-East Europe occurs in all study regions (Thrace,Macedonia, Thessaly, Bulgaria) near 8200 cal yr BP. We observe major disruptions of Neolithic cultures in the Levant, North Syria, South-EastAnatolia, Central Anatolia and Cyprus, at the same time. We conclude that the 8200 cal yr BP aridity event triggered the spread of early farmers,by different routes, out of West Asia and the Near East into Greece and Bulgaria. 2006 University of Washington. All rights reserved.

    Keywords: 8200 cal yr BP event; Radiocarbon; Neolithisation

    Introduction

    Greenland ice core records have revealed that 8200 yr ago,temperatures in the North Atlantic region decreased abruptly,and then subsequently recovered, during an interval of about200 yr. A large number of contemporaneous climate events aredocumented in terrestrial records in North America (Yu andEicher, 1999; Spooner et al., 2002), the Caribbean (Hughen etal., 2000), Europe (Von Grafenstein et al., 1999; McDermott et

    Corresponding author.E-mail address: [email protected] (B. Weninger).

    0033-5894/$ - see front matter 2006 University of Washington. All rights reservdoi:10.1016/j.yqres.2006.06.009

    al., 2001; Schmidt and Gruhle, 2003; Tinner and Lotter, 2001;Klitgaard-Kristensen et al., 1998), Africa (Gasse, 2000), andWestern Asia (Siani et al., 2001; Arz et al., 2003). In centralGreenland the surface air temperature dropped by 36C (from18Oice e.g. Johnsen et al., 2001), and perhaps up to 7.4C(Leuenberger et al., 1999, from 15N of N2 measurements in theGRIP ice core). A reduction in air temperature of this magnitudeis likely to be linked with drier conditions and stronger windsover the North Atlantic and drier monsoon regions (Alley et al.,1997; Bauer et al., 2004).

    According to Barber et al. (1999), the observed cooling wascaused by a catastrophic collapse of the last remaining ice dome

    ed.

    mailto:[email protected]://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.yqres.2006.06.009

  • 402 B. Weninger et al. / Quaternary Research 66 (2006) 401420

    of the Laurentide Ice Sheet covering Hudson Bay. Duringdeglaciation, a remnant ice mass blocked the northwarddrainage of the large glacial lakes Agassiz and Ojibway,which previously discharged southeastwards over sillways tothe St Lawrence river. Around 8200 yr ago, the ice damcollapsed, allowing the lakes to drain swiftly northwards intothe Labrador Sea. The release of the estimated 1.61014 m3 offreshwater (Teller et al., 2002) previously stored in theproglacial lakes through Hudson Strait may have substantiallyweakened the deep-water formation in the North Atlantic. Tworesearch groups have performed dedicated numerical climatesimulations of the 8200 cal yr BP event, both using coupledatmosphereoceanbiosphere models (Renssen et al., 2001,2002; Bauer et al., 2004). The studies by Renssen et al. (2001,2002) confirm that the amount of freshwater stored in theproglacial Lake Agassiz is sufficient to lower the surface waterdensity in the Nordic Seas below the threshold value forsalinity-driven (contrasting wind-driven) deep-water formation(cf. Rahmstorf, 2003). These studies demonstrate that thethermohaline circulation (THC) perturbation could be main-tained for many hundreds of years, depending on the amount offreshwater released and the duration of the freshwater pulse.Although not directly predicted by the modelling studies, the8200 cal yr BP event may also have been accompanied by hugeand fast-propagating surface gravity waves, that would lead tomassive floods in coastal regions in the North Atlantic. Thisrequires empirical confirmation. The amount of outflowingwater corresponds to a global-mean sea level rise of 0.5 m(Bauer et al., 2004).

    In contrast to the 4200 cal yr BP climate change event, whichhas aroused considerable interest in archaeology (Weiss et al.,1993; Staubwasser et al., 2003), no archaeological study hasbeen undertaken to identify the potential effects of the muchlarger 8200 cal yr BP event. In this paper, we begin thearchaeology of the 8200 cal yr BP event by exploring thequestion: which prehistoric periods, archaeological sites, andcultural processes in the Eastern Mediterranean are the mostpromising candidates for showing response to the postulatedclimatic forcing? We place emphasis on the Eastern Mediterra-nean due to the advanced state and complex character of theprehistoric communities in this area. The archaeologicalsystems in these regions are further promising, for theirenhanced sensitivity towards the envisaged droughts. We alsoconsidered focusing this study on Central Europe, butconcluded a priori that due both to the prevailing temperateAtlantic climate and the limitations of the archaeological data the possible effects of the 8200 cal yr BP event in the EuropeanMesolithic may be less clearly recognisable.

    We began by selecting a number of climate proxies accordingto the following criteria (1) all likely show the same climateevent, (2) as many as possible derive from sites close to our studyarea, and (3) the records should be dated with the highestpresently attainable temporal resolution. The selected proxies areshown in Figure 1. Because our archaeological studies are basedon tree-ring calibrated 14C-ages (Reimer et al., 2004), we firstsynchronised all these proxies as closely as achievable byvisual comparisons with the tree-ring widths measured for the

    Central European Oak Chronology (Klitgaard-Kristensen et al.,1998). By this measure, we obtain an age estimate for the8200 cal yr BP event scaled to the European tree-ringchronology, thus producing the highest achievable absolutedating precision for the 8200 cal yr BP event (Weninger et al.,2006). We note that minor (decadal) adjustments of publishedage models for the Greenland Ice Cores GRIP, GISP2, andNGRIP, as well as for Cariaco, Ammersee, and Crag Cave arenecessary to achieve direct visual comparison of all theseproxies. For example, the 18Oice-GISP2 data shown in Figure 1are shifted 40 yr younger, in comparison to the age valuespublished by Grootes et al. (1993) (Fig. 1). The age shifts of theother climate proxies under study can be taken from theindividually shifted time-scales in Figure 1. This procedureallows us to define a precise reference time interval 83008000 cal yr BP for the climate event under study, with overalltemporal resolution we judge to be a few decades on the tree-ring age scale. We show this reference time interval for the8200 cal yr BP event as a differentially greyed band (darkgrey=early 8.2, medium grey=middle 8.2, light grey=late8.2) in all graphs of the calibrated archaeological radiocarbonages (Figs. 35). The chronological results shown in Figure 1are supported by the recently published Greenland Ice Core AgeModel (GICC05) age model (Vinther et al., 2006).

    Before proceeding, we would like to bring attention to thestudies by Ariztegui et al. (2000) on Italian continental recordsand Mediterranean marine sediments, and notably to aninterruption in the deposition of Sapropel S1 dating ca.8000 cal yr BP. This points to an abrupt change to colder/dryer conditions in the otherwise warm and humid conditions ofthe early Holocene, in the entire Mediterranean. Ariztegui et al.(2000) have tentatively related this dry snap to changes in solarirradiance or cosmic ray flux. However, judging by itschronological position, it appears to be entirely coeval withthe increasingly dry period ca. 82508000 cal yr BP, that clearlyinterrupts the periods of flash-floods dating from 8400 to6900 cal yr BP identified in the Soreq Cave stalagmite (Fig. 1,cf. Bar-Matthews et al., 2003). There are, we conclude,sufficient strands of evidence in support of our basic hypothesis,that during the time period ca. 82508000 cal yr BP, at leastsome of our study regions (Levante, Anatolia, Mesopotamia,Greece, Bulgaria) experienced unusually cold/dry climaticconditions.

    Radiocarbon database

    Our studies are based on a substantial radiocarbon databasefor the Pre-Pottery and Pottery Neolithic periods in SoutheastEurope and the Near East (Total N=7360 14C-dates). Thepresent studies are concentrated on the large settlements (mostlytell-mounds i.e. multi-phase stratified settlements) encounteredin Turkey (N=649), Greece (N=253) and Cyprus (N=130), forwhich extensive series of stratified 14C-dates are available. Thisselection of large sites may introduce an unavoidable bias due tothe lack of comparative data. Our approach is to identify thestratigraphic position (metric depth), architectural phase andspecific cultural association, at each site for which the 14C data

  • Figure 1. Climate proxies in the time-window 87007800 cal yr BP, with minor (decadal) adjustments on age models to achieve a better visual fit with the CentralEuropean Tree-Ring Chronology (after Weninger et al., 2006). From top to bottom: Tree-Ring Width (Oak, Germany), Klitgaard-Kristensen et al., 1998. 18Oice(GRIP, Greenland, 20 yr averages), Grootes et al. (1993). 18Oice (NGRIP, Greenland, 50 yr averages), North Greenland Ice Core Project Members, 2004.

    18Oice(GISP2, Greenland, ca. 10 yr averages), Grootes et al., 1993. Marine Varve Greyscale (Cariaco Basin, Venezuela), Hughen et al. (2000). 18OOstracodes (Ammersee,South Germany), Von Grafenstein et al. (1999). Percent N. pachyderma (Norwegian Coast), Klitgaard-Kristensen et al., 1998. 18Ostalagmite (Crag Cave, Ireland),McDermott et al., 2001. 13Cstalagmite (Soreq Cave, Israel), indicating a period with flash-floods 85007000 cal yr BP (only partly shown in this graph), interrupted byan increasingly dry period ca.82508000 cal yr BP, Bar-Matthews et al. (2003). The visual subdivision of the 8200 cal yr BP climate event (greyed box on lower time-scale) into a pre-8.2 Soreq phase (83708220 cal yr BP), followed by three subphases Early (82208210 cal yr BP), Middle (82108120 cal yr BP), and Late(81208000 cal yr BP) subphases, is established for the specific purposes of the present archaeological studies.

    403B. Weninger et al. / Quaternary Research 66 (2006) 401420

  • 404 B. Weninger et al. / Quaternary Research 66 (2006) 401420

    show an occupation overlapping the 8200 cal yr BP timeinterval. Once identified, we then treat these settlement phasesas individual case studies. The geographic location of these sitesis shown in Figure 2.

    In the following, our procedure for each site is to brieflyreview the published archaeological architecture and finds, andthen discuss the available 14C-dates. All 14C-ages are tree-ringage-calibrated using the dataset INTCAL04 (Reimer et al.,2004). For graphic representation of calibrated 14C-ages we usethe method of multiple-group calibration (Weninger, 2000). Theunderlying method of probabilistic 14C-calibration is describedin Weninger (1986).

    We present a broad chronological overview (Fig. 3) of thearchaeological 14C-data under discussion for the regions ofCyprus, Turkey, Greece, Greece-Theopetra-Cave and GreeceFranchti-Cave, all in comparison to the reference time interval(greyed) for the 8200 cal yr BP event, as defined above. Thetotal available 14C-data for the Neolithic sequence on Cyprusbegins in the 11th millenium cal yr BP and ends around8000 cal yr BP, with a data maximum centered around8200 cal yr BP. As will be discussed later, this maximum isdue to the availability of two large series of 14C-ages for theaceramic sites Khirokitia and Kalavassos Tenta. In Turkey,when again we focus our attention on the time interval around8200 cal yr BP, we observe the oppositean extendedminimum in the dating series. In Greece the early Holocene14C-sequence shows only a small number of (Epipalaeolithicand Mesolithic) dates prior to the interval under study,followed by a major step centered on the 8200 cal yr BP

    Figure 2. Geographic location of the archaeol

    study interval. This step marks the beginning of the earliestNeolithic in Greece; we must further specify (due tocontinuing archaeological discussions) as (1) producingpottery and (2) known from tell-mounds (i.e. excluding cavesites). The large number of 14C-ages available for the GreekEarly Neolithic partly corresponds to the special attentiongiven to this period during the past few decades ofarchaeological research. We will discuss the relevant (14C-dated) sites below. We have enhanced the appearance of thisstep by subtracting from the database, and showing separately,the 14C-data for Theopetra Cave and Franchthi Cave. Thesecave sites are most important for our understanding of theMesolithic/Neolithic transition in Greece. The overall pictureis that the Greek Mesolithic is a highly mobile maritimeculture, with preference for coastal settings. The majority ofknown Mesolithic sites are situated in marshes, on beaches anddunes, and along streams, at distances ranging from a few to afew tens of km from the Mesolithic shore (Van Andel, 2005).The clear exception for an inland Mesolithic site is TheopetraCave, which is situated in the Thessaly basin (Facorellis et al.,2001). Yet even here the earliest pottery-bearing strata have14C-ages close to (and not older than) 8200 cal yr BP. Weconclude that all presently known early pottery finds in Greeceare associated with the incoming farming communities, and donot reflect pottery manufacture by Greek Mesolithic groups.However, as can be recognised from Figure 5 (e.g. ArgissaMagoula), there do exist some 14C-radiometric indications of apre-8200 cal yr BP occupation of the tell-mounds in Greece,which appear to have significant temporal extension. Earlier

    ogical sites in the Eastern Mediterranean.

  • Figure 3. Cumulative calibrated dating probability of radiocarbon data from the Eastern Mediterranean, arranged according to regions Cyprus, Turkey, and Greece,compared to time window on the 8200 cal yr BP event (greyed interval 82507950 cal yr BP cf. Fig. 1). For Greece, the 14C data for the Theopetra Cave and theFranchti Cave are plotted separately. Radiocarbon Data: Cologne Near-East Neolithic Radiocarbon Database (www.calpal.de).

    405B. Weninger et al. / Quaternary Research 66 (2006) 401420

    researchers have taken these 14C-dates at face value to implythe existence of a pre-pottery (aceramic) period in Greece.Many archaeologists still today predominantly take these datesat face value, and infer they provide evidence for an early startof the pottery Neolithic in Greece. In the discussion below wewill show both modes of interpretation to be unfounded.

    We now proceed with a more detailed description of thearchaeological sites under study, starting with the Late AceramicNeolithic on Cyprus (at Khirokitia, Kalavasos Tenta), thenjumping over to Turkey to have a first look at the 8200 cal yr BPevent (as described above: actually the observed 14C-dataminimum) as it appears in the Late Neolithic/Early Chalcolithictransition in Central Anatolia (at atalhyk East/West andHaclar), following which we discuss the Early Neolithic inNorth-West Anatolia (at Hoca eme).We thenmovewestwardsthrough Macedonia (Nea Nikomedeia) and finally southwardsinto the plains of Thessaly (Sesklo, Achilleion, ArgissaMagoula, Elateia). In Central Anatolia our focus is on thetransition from the Late Neolithic to the Early Chalcolithic. In allthe other regions (Macedonia, Thessaly, Bulgaria) we arefocussing on the Earliest Neolithic, as defined e.g. by theappearance of painted red Monochrome pottery (Schubert,1999). This journey around the Eastern Mediterranean iscompleted with a brief glimpse at the Earliest Neolithic inBulgaria (Ovcarovo-Platoto) prior to the Karanovo I period.Although this approach today has an overall Out-of-Anatoliadirection, we do not necessarily assume this corresponds to thespread of farming during the Neolithic, which we expect to bemore complex. We also do not discuss the archaeological sites of

    South-East Anatolia contemporary to the 8200 cal yr BP event,for which we have not identified any plausible (i.e. clearlyexceptional) climate influences. The situation in the Levant hasbeen examined in a previous paper (Weninger et al., 2006).

    Archaeological sites

    Khirokitia/Cyprus

    Khirokitia was discovered in 1934 by P. Dikaios (Dikaios,1953) who conducted first excavations in six campaigns from1936 to 1946. Further excavations by the French mission (LeBrun, 1998, 2001) are continued today. The site location(34.78 N, 33.34 E ) is about 6 km from the southern coast ofCyprus on a rocky promontory protruding into the Maroni rivervalley, which also drains the Troodos Mountain range (cf.Kalavasos-Tenta, below). The settlement is well protected, onone side by steep rocks and on the other by a large perimeterwall. This wall was earlier initially viewed as a main road(Dikaios, 1953: 186195), if only because it is remarkably wideand runs uphill through the middle of the settlement. A second,equally impressive stone fortification (structure 284), identifiedlater, built when the settlement spread, clearly shows thefortificatory character of these walls (Le Brun, 2001). Thesettlement contains a large number of circular stone structureswith mud-plastered floors with exterior diameter ranging from2.3 m to 9.8 m. As shown in Figure 4, the summed probabilitydistribution of the calibrated 14C-ages has a central reading atca. 8300 cal yr BP. To account for the old-wood effect, this

    http://www.calpal.de

  • Figure 4. Cumulative calibrated dating probability of radiocarbon data from archaeological sites on Cyprus (Khirokitia/Table 1, Tenta/Table 2), and Turkey(atalhyk East/Table 3, Haclar/Table 5, Hoca eme IV/Table 6, Hoca eme III/Table 6), compared to time window on the 8200 cal yr BP event (greyed interval82507950 cal yr BP cf. Fig. 1).

    406 B. Weninger et al. / Quaternary Research 66 (2006) 401420

    supplies us with a ca. 100 yr younger date for the main(excavated) occupation of the site. The site was deserted at sometime during or towards the end of the time-span covering the8200 cal yr BP event (Table 1).

    Kalavasos tenta/Cyprus

    Following a brief excavation by P. Dikaios in 1947,during which the presence of some substantial stonearchitecture of the aceramic Neolithic period was revealed,between 1967 and 1984, I. Todd undertook five seasons ofexcavations at the settlement of Kalavasos Tenta (Todd,1987). The site location (34.75 N, 33.29 E) is on a terraceof the Vasilikos Valley, about 20 m above the valley floor,with a direct view to the neighbouring site of Khirokitiasituated a few km to the east. The architecture comprisesnumerous circular stone structures, many of which containsingle or double internal piers, which probably served tosupport an upper storey. In an early phase the settlement wassurrounded by a wide stone wall, with an outside ditch onthe southern side of the site. During a later phase, thesettlement expanded beyond this wall. A total of 14 humanburials were found, either interred in pits below the floors ofbuildings or in the open areas between the houses andcovered by rubbish deposits (Table 2).

    Detailed geomorphological studies by Todd (1987) demon-strate that the availability of water in the Vasilikos Valleycatchment of the Troodos Mountain range is entirely dependentupon ephemeral precipitation, which commences in lateOctober and continues into May. The mean annual precipitationin the valley is about 600 mm, with virtually no rain fallingduring the six summer months. The heaviest rainfalls are inDecember and January, during which time the river flow causesregular flooding of the patchy farming areas in the directvicinity of the site. In most years rainfall is sufficient for dry-farming of cereals (>240 mm/yr), but crop records kept by alocal family for the years 18001897 show that famine occurredabout every 8 yr. Todd (1987) concludes that farmers can expectdifficulties in the Vasilikos Valley for a total of about 28 yrevery century.

    The aceramic settlement is situated at short walkingdistances (max ca. 500 m) to the areas available for cultivation,which are located on small terraces at the edge of the river. Thefields have a typical size of 100 m200 m. The lower fields areregularly inundated by spring floods. With this position, andnotably its location on a low terrace directly above a regularlyflooding river, the site of Kalavasos-Tenta has an ideal characterfor the flood-plain model of Van Andel and Runnels (1995).

    The available 14C-data (Fig. 4, Table 2) have an overallspread of more than 3000 yr. There is a local cluster of three

  • Table 1Khirokitia (Cyprus)

    Lab code 14C age (BP) Material Site Locus Site Period General Period Cal age (cal BP) Reference

    P-2549 5630260 n.d. Period 5/4 Cypro-PPNB 6440300 Todd, 1987P-2780 583060 n.d. B 7 C: 2.4 Cypro-PN 664080 Todd, 1982P-2781 630080 n.d. G 11 C: 9.2 Period 4, late/3 Cypro-PPNB 7210110 Todd, 1982P-2977 6580290 n.d. G 10 A: 4.1 Period 2 Cypro-PPNB 7430290 Todd, 1982P-2975 6970310 n.d. F 11 C, E Blk.: 2.5 Period >=3 Cypro-PPNB 7840280 Todd, 1982P-2553 711090 n.d. Period 3 Cypro-PPNB 793090 Todd, 1987P-2779 712090 n.d. G 12 D: 4.2 Period 4 Cypro-PPNB 794090 Todd, 1982P-2783 7130410 n.d. G 11 C: 5.5 Period 4 Cypro-PPNB 8000380 Todd, 1982P-2551 714090 n.d. Period>=3 Cypro-PPNB 797090 Todd, 1987P-2550 718090 n.d. Period>=3 Cypro-PPNB 8020100 Todd, 1987P-2552 7250100 n.d. Period 3 Cypro-PPNB 808090 Todd, 1987P-2784 7380100 n.d. G 12 A: 5.8 Period 4, late/3 Cypro-PPNB 8200120 Todd, 1982P-2978 7400260 n.d. H 12 A: 2.4 Period 4 Cypro-PPNB 8230250 Todd, 1982P-2555 743090 n.d. Period 4 Cypro-PPNB 825090 Todd, 1987P-2782 7600100 n.d. G 11 C: 5.9 Period 4, late/3 Cypro-PPNB 8410100 Todd, 1982P-2973 8010360 n.d. G 10 A/C: 7.2/7.3 Period 2, Top of Site Cypro-LPPNB 8930410 Todd, 1982P-2974 802090 n.d. G9 D: 3.6 Period 2, Top of Site Cypro-LPPNB 8870140 Todd, 1982P-2548 8350200 n.d. Period >=3 Cypro-PPNB 9290220 Todd, 1987P-2554 8480110 n.d. Period 2, Top of Site Cypro-LPPNB 9450110 P-2785 8720400 n.d. G 12 D: 5.1 Period 5/4 Cypro-MPPNB 9800500 Todd, 1982P-2976 8870500 n.d. F 11 C: 3.6 Period >=3 Cypro-PPNB 10030640 Todd, 1982P-2972 9240130 n.d. G 11 C: 13.2/16.1 Period 5 Cypro-EPPNB 10450150 Todd, 1982

    Database references: Reingruber and Thissen, 2004; Bhner, 2006.

    407B. Weninger et al. / Quaternary Research 66 (2006) 401420

    dates centered on 8200 cal yr BP, and some additional sevendates around 7950 cal yr BP. On the basis of these data we couldspeculate that Aceramic Kalavasos-Tenta was first occupiedwhen Khirokitia was deserted (ca. 8200 cal yr BP) and was itselfdeserted some 350 yr later (ca. 7850 cal yr BP). In this case thesite would have been occupied during the 8200 cal yr BP event,and deserted at the end of the event. The earliest date for thefollowing reoccupation of the site is represented by themeasurement P-2780: 583060 14C yr BP. Later attentionshowed that this sample was archaeologically not in situ andcontained many roots (Todd, 1987). The 14C-measurements arealtogether not very convincing, due to their wide variance, butdo convey the impression that Kalavasos-Tenta is another major8200 cal yr BP candidate.

    Table 2Kalavasos Tenta (Cyprus)

    Lab code 14C age (BP) Material Site Locus

    Ly-4309 6230160 n.d. secteur est, carr 34/2627, Sondage 5Ly-4306 6310170 n.d. secteur est, carr 34/2627, Sondage 5Ly-3716 7000150 n.d. secteur est, carr 35/27, S. 117, sol 49BM-852 729478 n.d. tholos XLVI (effondrement de la toiturBM-855 730874 n.d. sous tholos XLVIBM-854 744261 n.d. tholos XLVI (occupation ancienne)St-416 7445160 n.d. below tholos XVIIBM-853 745181 n.d. tholos XLVI (occupation rcente)Ly-4308 7470140 n.d. secteur est, carr 34/2627, Sondage 5St-414 7515125 n.d. tholos IA couche infrieure du corridoLy-3719 7540180 n.d. secteur ouest, carr 29/24St-415 7655160 n.d. tholos IA couche infrieure du corridoLy-3717 7700150 n.d. secteur ouest, carr 34/23Ly-3718 7930320 n.d. secteur est, carr 35/27 S. 117, sol 492Ly-4307 7930130 n.d. secteur est, carr 34/2627, sondage 5

    Database references: Reingruber and Thissen, 2004; Bhner, 2006.

    According to the excavation report (Todd, 1987), thepostulated lengthy break of the occupation of Cyprus(>1000 yr) following the 8200 cal yr BP event gains credenceat Kalavasos-Tenta, due to the lack of evidence for continuitybetween the Aceramic and Ceramic Neolithic phases. Despitenumerous surveys during the last few decades, no evidence hasyet been found on Cyprus to locate sites which could representthe direct successors of Kalavasos-Tenta and Khirokitia. If theseexist, they are likely only to be found under the forested areas ofthe island, for which the visibility of archaeological surveys islimited (E. Peltenburg, personal communication 2004).

    Together, the series of aceramic 14C-dates from the sites ofKalavasos-Tenta (Table 2) and Khirokitia (Table 1) and confirmour suspicion that the Pre-Pottery Neolithic period on Cyprus

    Site Level General Period Cal age (cal BP) Reference

    07 niveau G Cypro-PPN 7110190 Le Brun, 199807 niveau F Cypro-PPN 7190190 Le Brun, 19982 niveau C Cypro-PPN 7830130 Le Brun, 1998e) Cypro-PPN 811080 Todd, 1987

    Cypro-PPN 813080 Todd, 1987 Cypro-PPN 827070 Todd, 1987 Cypro-PPN 8240150 Todd, 1987 Cypro-PPN 827080 Todd, 1987

    07 niveau F Cypro-PPN 8260130 Le Brun, 1998r) Cypro-PPN 8320120 Todd, 1987

    niveau III Cypro-PPN 8350180 Le Brun, 1998r) Cypro-PPN 8490170 Todd, 1987

    niveau III Cypro-PPN 8560170 Le Brun, 1998niveau C Cypro-PPN 8850380 Le Brun, 1998

    07 niveau F Cypro-PPN 8800170 Le Brun, 1998

  • Table 3atalhyk East (Turkey)

    Lab code 14C age (BP) Material Species Site Locus Cal age (cal BP) Reference

    AA-27983 701555 charcoal 785070 Gktrk et al., 2002PL-9800526B 718080 charcoal 803090 Gktrk et al., 2002OxA-10092 718565 seeds Triticum 803070 Cressford, 2001OxA-11176 746575 seeds Cerealae building 1, phase 2B 828070 Thissen et al., 2004P-1361 749993 charcoal juniper level V 830090 Stuckenrath and Lawn, 1969P-769 750593 seeds grain level VI A 831090 Stuckenrath and Ralph, 1965OxA-11078 751560 seeds Cerealae building 1, phase 2C 831070 Thissen et al., 2004P-796 752177 seeds grain, (2 types) level II 832080 Stuckenrath and Ralph, 1965P-781 752490 charcoal oak level VI B 832090 Stuckenrath and Ralph, 1965P-774 753194 charcoal timber(?) level III 832090 Mellaart, 1975OxA-11182 753545 bone Capra, wild, horn building 1, phase 3 835040 Thissen et al., 2004P-778 753889 seeds grain level VI A 833090 Stuckenrath and Ralph, 1965OxA-11077 754060 seeds Lens building 1, phase 3 833070 Thissen et al., 2004P-772 757291 charcoal oak level VI A 8370100 Stuckenrath and Ralph, 1965P-827 757986 human charred brain level VI A 838090 Stuckenrath and Ralph, 1965OxA-11079 759060 seeds Cerealae building 1, phase 2B 840050 Thissen et al., 2004PL-980515A 7620100 seeds Cerealae 844090 Gktrk et al., 2002OxA-11045 762045 seeds Lens building 1, phase E 843040 Thissen et al., 2004AA-19344 762050 charcoal juniper level IV 844050 Newton and Kuniholm, 1999AA-19345 762652 charcoal juniper level IV 844050 Newton and Kuniholm, 1999P-797 762990 charcoal juniper level VI B 845080 Stuckenrath and Ralph, 1965OxA-11007 763045 bone Ovis/Capra building 1, phase 5B 844040 Thissen et al., 2004OxA-11040 764045 seeds Cerealae building 1, phase 2B 845050 Thissen et al., 2004PL-9800562A 764090 seeds Cerealae building 1, phase 2 846080 Gktrk et al., 2002P-776 764091 charcoal juniper level V 846080 Stuckenrath and Ralph, 1965.OxA-11041 765545 seeds Hordeum vulgare building 1, phase 3 846050 Thissen et al., 2004P-1375 766199 charcoal elm level VI A 848080 Stuckenrath and Lawn, 1969OxA-11545 767040 seeds pulses building 1, phase 4 847050 Thissen et al., 2004AA-19346 767050 charcoal juniper level IV 847050 Newton and Kuniholm, 1999OxA-11031 767550 seeds Cerealae building 1, phase 4 848050 Thissen et al., 2004OxA-11043 768050 seeds Triticum dicoccum building 1, phase 1B 848050 Thissen et al., 2004OxA-11044 768050 seeds Lens building 1, phase E 848050 Thissen et al., 2004P-1366 768490 charcoal level VIII 849080 Stuckenrath and Lawn, 1969OxA-11030 768540 seeds Triticum dicoccum building 1, phase 4 848050 Thissen et al., 2004AA-27979 770060 seeds Cerealae building 1, phase 2 849060 Gktrk et al., 2002P-777 770491 charcoal juniper level VI B 851080 Stuckenrath and Ralph, 1965OxA-11712 770555 seeds Lens building 1, phase 3 850060 Thissen et al., 2004PL-972139A 771070 seeds Cerealae building 1, phase 3 850060 Gktrk et al., 2002AA-27978 771070 seeds Cerealae building 1, phase 3 850060 Gktrk et al., 2002OxA-11155 771050 seeds Cerealae building 1, phase 2C 850050 Thissen et al., 2004AA-18105 7710100 charcoal juniper level IV 852090 Newton and Kuniholm, 1999OxA-11075 772575 bone Bos, skull building 1, phase 3 851070 Thissen et al., 2004P-1365 772980 charcoal juniper level VI A 852070 Stuckenrath and Lawn, 1969PL-980559A 773080 charcoal 852070 Gktrk et al., 2002OxA-11046 773050 seeds Triticum dicoccum building 5, phase B 851060 Thissen et al., 2004OxA-11029 773045 seeds Lens building 1, phase 3 851050 Thissen et al., 2004AA-19351 774765 charcoal juniper level IV 852070 Newton and Kuniholm, 1999OxA-11183 775045 seeds Cerealae building 1, phase 4 852050 Thissen et al., 2004;

    Newton and Kuniholm, 1999OxA-11713 775555 seeds Lens building 1, phase 3 853060 Thissen et al., 2004P-1374 775792 charcoal elm level XII 8560100 Stuckenrath and Lawn, 1969PL-9800563A 776090 seeds Cerealae level VII 8560100 Gktrk et al., 2002PL-980519A 776080 seeds Cerealae level VII 855080 Gktrk et al., 2002OxA-11049 776050 human bone, juvenile building 1, phase 2C 853060 Thissen et al., 2004OxA-11032 776540 seeds Cerealae building 1, phase 2C 854050 Thissen et al., 2004OxA-11050 777550 human bone, juvenile building 1, phase 2C 854060 Thissen et al., 2004OxA-9945 777550 seeds Scirpus 854060 Cressford, 2001AA-27976 778055 charcoal 855060 Thissen et al., 2004PL-980520A 778080 seeds Cerealae level VII 8580100 Gktrk et al., 2002OxA-11028 778040 seeds Cerealae building 1, phase 2B 855050 Thissen et al., 2004OxA-11042 778545 seeds Triticum/ Hordeum Building 1, phase 1B 856050 Thissen et al., 2004OxA-11047 779050 human bone, old man building 1, phase 4 856060 Thissen et al., 2004AA-27980 779060 seeds Cerealae level VIIIVII 856070 Gktrk et al., 2002PL-9800570A 780090 seeds Cerealae level VII 8630130 Gktrk et al., 2002

    408 B. Weninger et al. / Quaternary Research 66 (2006) 401420

  • Lab code 14C age (BP) Material Species Site Locus Cal age (cal BP) Reference

    OxA-11048 780050 human bone, adult man building 1, phase 4 858060 Thissen et al., 2004PL-980511A 7800100 seeds Cerealae level IXVIII 8640150 Gktrk et al., 2002PL-980514A 7810100 seeds Cerealae 8660160 Gktrk et al., 2002PL-972431A 781080 seeds Cerealae level VIIIVII 8630120 Gktrk et al., 2002PL-980410A,B 781560 charcoal level IXVIII 862080 Gktrk et al., 2002PL-9800521A 782090 seeds Cerealae building 1, phase 3 8670150 Gktrk et al., 2002PL-9800566A 782090 seeds Cerealae level VIII 8670150 Gktrk et al., 2002PL-9800522A 783090 seeds Cerealae 8690150 Gktrk et al., 2002PL-972126A 783080 seeds Cerealae building 1, phase 2A 8680130 Gktrk et al., 2002PL-980518A 784080 seeds Cerealae level VII 8700140 Gktrk et al., 2002P-1371 7844102 charcoal level X 8710170 Stuckenrath and Lawn, 1969PL-980513A 7850100 seeds Cerealae level VIII 8720170 Gktrk et al., 2002PL-980561A 785080 seeds Cerealae level VII 8720140 Gktrk et al., 2002PL-9800507B 785090 seeds Cerealae level VII 8720160 Gktrk et al., 2002P-1367 785397 charcoal elm/oak level VIII 8730160 Stuckenrath and Lawn, 1969OxA-11051 785545 human bone, old woman building 1, phase 2B 867070 Gktrk et al., 2002PL-980512A 7860100 seeds Cerealae level IXVIII 8730160 Gktrk et al., 2002OxA-11052 786045 human bone, old man building 1, phase 1B 868070 Thissen et al., 2004PL-9800568A 788090 seeds Cerealae level IXVIII 8760150 Gktrk et al., 2002P-1362 7904111 charcoal elm level VI B 8780160 Stuckenrath and Lawn, 1969PL-980558A 791080 charcoal Building 1, phase 1B 8790140 Gktrk et al., 2002PL-980560A 791080 seeds Cerealae level VIII 8790140 Gktrk et al., 2002OxA-9943 791055 seeds Triticum 8790130 Cressford, 2001, 723P-1363 7911103 charcoal timber(?) level VII 8780150 Stuckenrath and Lawn, 1969P-770 791294 charcoal juniper/ oak level VI B 8780150 Stuckenrath and Ralph, 1965P-1372 791585 charcoal elm or bone ? level X 8790140 Stuckenrath and Lawn, 1969AA-19350 791854 charcoal juniper level IV 8790130 Newton and Kuniholm, 1999OxA-9774 793550 seeds Scirpus level XI 8810120 Cressford, 2001P-1364 793698 charcoal elm level VI B 8800150 Stuckenrath and Lawn, 1969P-1369 7937109 charcoal level X 8800150 Stuckenrath and Lawn, 1969PL-972424A 794080 seeds Cerealae Building 1, phase 1B 8810140 Gktrk et al., 2002AA-19349 794465 charcoal juniper level IV 8810130 Gktrk et al., 2002OxA-9980 795575 seeds Triticum 8820130 Cressford, 2001, 723OxA-9771 796555 seeds Triticum 8830120 Cressford, 2001, 723OxA-9944 797550 seeds Cerealae 8850110 Cressford, 2001, 723OxA-9946 798055 seeds Scirpus level XI 8850110 Cressford, 2001, 719AA-19348 798252 charcoal juniper level IV 8850110 Newton and Kuniholm, 1999OxA-9947 798550 seeds Triticum/ Hordeum/ Scirpus level XII 8850100 Cressford, 2001, 719OxA-9776 798555 seeds Scirpus level pre XII.B 8850110 Cressford, 2001, 719AA-19347 799854 charcoal juniper level IV 8860100 Newton and Kuniholm, 1999OxA-9772 802555 seeds Triticum 8890100 Cressford, 2001, 723OxA-9950 803050 seeds Triticum/ Pisum level pre XII.B 8900100 Cressford, 2001, 719P-1370 8036104 charcoal ashes; charcoal-elm level X 8910170 Stuckenrath and Lawn, 1969P-775 803796 charcoal juniper level IV 8900160 Stuckenrath and Ralph, 1965PL-9800565A 805070 seeds Cerealae level VII 8920120 Gktrk et al., 2002OxA-9949 805050 seeds Pisum level pre XII.A 8920100 Cressford, 2001 806080 charcoal building 1, phase 2 8940140 AA-18104 806550 charcoal juniper level IV 8940110 Newton and Kuniholm, 1999PL-972425A 807080 charcoal building 1, phase 2B 8950150 Gktrk et al., 2002AA-47057 808566 bone Bos, phalanx 8980130 Gktrk et al., 2002OxA-9775 809055 seeds Triticum/ Hordeum level XII 9000100 Cressford, 2001OxA-9948 809050 seeds Triticum/Hordeum level XII 902070 Cressford, 2001P-782 809298 charcoal level X 9000180 Stuckenrath and Ralph, 1965OxA-9892 815050 seeds Lens level pre XII.C 912080 Cressford, 2001OxA-9893 815550 seeds Triticum/ Scirpus/ Cerealae level pre XII.D 912080 Cressford, 2001OxA-9777 816050 seeds Lens level pre XII.C 913080 Cressford, 2001P-779 819099 charcoal level IX 9180130 Stuckenrath and Ralph, 1965AA-27982 819580 charcoal Pre XII.D? 9180110 Gktrk et al., 2002OxA-9778 824055 seeds Triticum/ Pisum level pre XII.D 9220100 Cressford, 2001PL-980525A 839090 charcoal Pre XII.D? 9380100 Gktrk et al., 2002

    Database references: Grard, 2001; Thissen et al., 2004; Bhner, 2006.

    Table 3 (continued)

    409B. Weninger et al. / Quaternary Research 66 (2006) 401420

  • 410 B. Weninger et al. / Quaternary Research 66 (2006) 401420

    ends abruptly and simultaneously at all other known (and 14C-dated) sites around 8200 cal yr BP, or sufficiently close to thisdate to make the desertion of the island a very good candidatefor climate forcing due to extended aridity.

    atalhyk/Central anatolia

    atalhyk is one of the largest and best-studied archae-ological sites in the Near East. The site is situated at 31.83 N,35.90 E in the Konya Plain of Central Anatolia (Fig. 2). Thislocation is well inside one of the major natural distribution zonesfor (at least) four of the most important major early Neolithicdomesticates (cattle, sheep, goat, and pigs) (Uerpmann, 1987)and is a core area also for the natural distribution of wild cereals.

    According to geomorphological and hydrological studies(Kuzucuolu, 2002) the Konya plain is basically karstic, withseasonal inundation during winter and early spring months. Theplains are largely covered by impermeable and nutrient poorlacustrine marls that become salty at times of heavy evapora-tion. The grass-covered steppe-like rangelands are well-suitedto animal husbandry, and the forest-rich areas of the Konyaplain and bordering high-lands can be expected to support wildgame in large numbers. As Kuzucuolu (2002) notes, thesettlement and activity patterns of this altogether semi-aridregion will rely strongly on access to freshwater. The Konyaarea has a continental, semi-arid climate with cold winters andwarm-dry summers. The low annual precipitation (

  • Table 5Haclar (Turkey)

    Lab code 14C age (BP) Material Species Site Level Site Locus Cal age (cal BP) Reference

    P-315 692695 charcoal (poutre) level IA Room 5, Roof Beam 778090 Ralph and Stuckenrath, 1962P-315A 7047221 charcoal level IA Room 5, Rood Beam 7900210 Ralph and Stuckenrath, 1962P-313 715098 charcoal level VI Area E, ash from fireplace 7990110 Ralph and Stuckenrath, 1962P-326A 7169131 n.d 8000140 Bienert, 2000P-316 7170134 charcoal level IIA Area N, Room 4, Roof Beam 8000140 Ralph and Stuckenrath, 1962P-316A 7172127 charcoal level IIA Area N, Room 4, Roof Beam 8010130 Ralph and Stuckenrath, 1962P-314 734094 charcoal level IX Area E, ash from fireplace 8170110 Ralph and Stuckenrath, 1962P-313A 735085 charcoal level VI Area E, ash from fireplace 8180110 Ralph and Stuckenrath, 1962P-326 7386131 charcoal 8200130 Bienert, 2000AA-41604 739863 charcoal juniper level VI Area P, Burnt Post, id BM-48 823080 Thissen et al., 2004AA-41603 745251 charcoal juniper level VI Area P, Burnt Post, id BM-48 828060 Thissen et al., 2004AA-41602 746851 charcoal juniper level VI Area P, Burnt Post, id BM-48 829060 Thissen et al., 2004BM-48 7550180 charcoal level VI Area P, Burnt Post 8360180 Barker and Makkey, 1960BM-125 7770180 charcoal level VII Area P, Corner Beam from Room 8660230 Barker and Makkey, 1963BM-127 8700180 charcoal level V (aceramic) Area Q, ash from fireplace 9810240 Barker and Makkey, 1963

    Database references: Grard, 2001; Thissen et al., 2004; Bhner, 2006.

    411B. Weninger et al. / Quaternary Research 66 (2006) 401420

    time-span, in the range of one to two centuries, centered on the8200 cal yr BP event.

    Hoca eme/northwest Anatolia

    The mound of Hoca eme is situated in the NortheasternAegean (40.70 N, 26.11 E), on a terrace overlooking theMarica river. This site for the first time allows us to trace thedevelopment and possible spread of the Neolithic paintedpottery from Anatolia into Southeastern Europe (Parzinger andzdoan, 1996; zdoan, 1998). Most important for thepresent studies is the earliest Phase IV, which shows a numberof circular structures with wooden posts sunk into the bedrock.One building has a floor paved with pebbles, that was plasteredand painted. The site has an enclosure wall, preserved to aheight of 1 m, with smoothed and polished inner face. This wallis most likely a fortification (zdoan, 1999). Despite therelatively wide distribution of the four available 14C-dates oncharcoals, dating between 8400 and 8000 cal yr BP, it is clearthat the occupation of Hoca eme IV runs parallel with the

    Table 6Hoca eme (Turkey)

    Lab code 14C age (BP) Material Site Phase

    GrN-19356 6520110 charcoal Phase IIGrN-19310 6890280 charcoal Phase IIGrN-19782 689060 charcoal Phase IIGrN-19781 6900110 charcoal Phase IIGrN-19780 692090 charcoal Phase IIGrN-19311 696065 charcoal Phase IIHd-16726/17084 700533 n.d. Phase IIIHd-16727/17038 702850 n.d. Phase IIIGrN-19357 7135270 charcoal Phase IIIGrN-19355 7200180 charcoal Phase IVHd-16724/17186 723929 n.d. Phase IIIGrN-19779 736035 charcoal Phase IVHd-16725/119145 749669 n.d. Phase IVBln-4609 763743 n.d. Phase IVHD-14217/13822 734938 charcoal Shrine Phase

    Database references: Grard, 2001; Thissen et al., 2004; Bhner, 2006.

    8200 cal yr BP event, with a slight tendency towards 8.2 ka-Early (Fig. 4). The following Phase III dates more to the end ofthe 8200 cal yr BP event, with essentially unchanged archi-tecture (Table 6).

    Both phases demonstrate the use of the exquisitely madethin-walled red-slipped and burnished Monochrome potterywith 'S" profiles, which has a wide distribution in Anatolia(zdoan, 1999), as well as in the Balkans, Macedonia, andThessaly (Todorova, 1998).

    The detailed comparative studies undertaken by Schubert(1999) confirm that the occurrence of Monochrome red potteryappears to mark the earliest Neolithic in all these regions.However, the problem remains that the Monochrome potterycan at present hardly be separated from the early painted wares(Vitelli, 1993) and impresso pottery (Budja, 2001) which alsomark the beginning of the Neolithic in these regions. As far asradiocarbon dates are available, everywhere the calibrated dateshave readings on or close to the 8200 cal yr BP event (Fig. 5).Typical examples are Poljanica Platoto/Bulgaria (Table 11),Elateia/Thessaly (Table 10) and Sesklo/Thessaly (Table 12). In

    General Period Cal age (cal BP) Reference

    E-CH 7430100 zdoan, 1997E-CH 7760250 zdoan, 1997E-CH 774060 zdoan, 1997E-CH 7760110 zdoan, 1997E-CH 777090 zdoan, 1997E-CH 780080 zdoan, 1997PN 786050 Karul, 2000PN 787060 Karul, 2000PN 7980260 zdoan, 1997PN 8030180 zdoan, 1997PN 807060 zdoan, 1997PN 818080 Karul, 2000PN 830070 Karul, 2000PN 845050 Karul, 2000PN 815070 zdoan, 1997

  • Figure 5. Cumulative calibrated dating probability of radiocarbon data from archaeological sites in Greece (Nea Nikomedeia/Table 7, Argissa Magoula/Table 8,Elateia/Table 10, Sesklo/Table 12, Achilleion/Table 9) and Bulgaria (Poljanica/Table 11). Compared to time window on the 8200 cal yr BP event (greyed interval82507950 cal yr BP cf. Fig. 1).

    412 B. Weninger et al. / Quaternary Research 66 (2006) 401420

    the following we will complete our discussion by discussing thestratigraphic situation for the earliest Neolithic at the sites ofNea Nikomedeia, Argissa Magoula and Achilleion.

    Nea Nikomedeia/north Greece

    Nea Nikomedeia is a low settlement mound situated(40.59 N, 22.29 E) to the west of Thessaloniki in northernGreece in the alluvial plain formed by the rivers Haliakmon andAxiosin. Today, the site is located in a marshy salt-plain, andearlier it may have been in closer proximity to the coast. Such asite would have been both ideal for cattle grazing (Rodden andWardle, 1996) and for utilising marine sources (Shackleton,1970), but Bintliff (1976) rejects this interpretation and proposesthat Nea Nikomedeia was an inland site surrounded by well-drained old lacustrine silts. He supposes this location wouldhave allowed the cultivation of winter and spring crops. Asshown by the extensive excavations in the years 19611963, themound contained six large rectangular buildings (ca. 7.60 mlength) built of mud-walling in timber-stud framework. Thelargest house had a square shape (1212 m) and was subdividedby three parallel rows of posts and internal buttresses. Thiscentral structure may have had ritual function. Initially, the sitewas considered to represent only one major architectural phase(Rodden, 1962), but further analysis allowed the identification

    of two building phases. These were separated by a humus layer,suggesting possible abandonment (Rodden and Wardle, 1996).In the first phase it appears that four of the six houses weregrouped around the large central structure. In this phase the sitewas fortified by earthen walls. In the second phase thefortification was reinforced by a ditch, which may have beenwater-filled (Table 7).

    A total of 16 14C-dates has been published (Table 7) and alarge majority of them are highly consistent AMS-dates (Pykeand Yiouni, 1996) measured on a (post-excavation) selection ofshort-lived cereals and animal bones. The summed probabilitydistribution (Fig. 5) shows a remarkably small spread of thecalibrated 14C-ages, with central value indicating an earliestoccupation at the onset of the 8200 cal yr BP event. A fewsamples have slightly younger readings, which would agreewith the possibility that the Early Neolithic at Nea Nikomedeiahas two phases separated by a hiatus. But this interpretationgoes one step beyond the precision achievable with the givenmeasurement errors. There are a few samples (e.g. GX-679 andQ-655) with significantly older readings, but these 14C-measurements derive from earlier studies and are not convin-cing. In our opinion Nea Nikomedeia is likely to have been onlybriefly occupied, at the most a few decades. We would finallylike to emphasise that the site is rather small, which may be theconsequence of restricted resources of any kind.

  • Table 7Nea Nikomedeia (Greece)

    Lab code 14C age (BP) Material Species Site Locus General Period Cal age (cal BP) Reference

    OxA-4280 6920120 seed Triticum dicoccum C1 Spit 2A Early Neolithic 7770110 Pyke and Yiouni, 1996OxA-1603 705080 seed Triticum dicoccum C1 Spit 2A Early Neolithic 787080 Pyke and Yiouni, 1996OxA-4281 710090 seed Triticum dicoccum C1 Spit 3A Early Neolithic 792090 Pyke and Yiouni, 1996OxA-4283 726090 seed Lens culinaris K6/1FG Early Neolithic 809090 Pyke and Yiouni, 1996OxA-3875 728090 bone Sus NN F6/1 FC PD, 0470 Early Neolithic 811090 Pyke and Yiouni, 1996P-1203 728174 charcoal charcoal EN 2, B4/1, ash pit Early Neolithic 810070 Stuckenrath, 1967OxA-3873 730080 bone Ovis NN D8/2,J358 Early Neolithic 812080 Pyke and Yiouni, 1996OxA-1604 734090 seed Triticum dicoccum C1 Spit 3A Early Neolithic 8170110 Pyke and Yiouni, 1996OxA-3874 737080 bone Capra NN B5/1,L644 Early Neolithic 8190110 Pyke and Yiouni, 1996OxA-3876 737090 bone Bos NN C9/1, L644 Early Neolithic 8190110 Pyke and Yiouni, 1996OxA-1605 740090 seed Hordeum vulgare H6/1a+H7/A Early Neolithic 8210110 Pyke and Yiouni, 1996OxA-1606 7400100 seed Lens culinaris K6/1FG Early Neolithic 8210110 Pyke and Yiouni, 1996OxA-4282 740090 seed Hordeum vulgare H6/1a+H7/A Early Neolithic 8210110 Pyke and Yiouni, 1996P-1202 755791 charcoal charcoal A4/3 feature A Early Neolithic 8350100 Stuckenrath, 1967GX-679 7780270 n.d phase I Early Neolithic 8680310 Pyke and Yiouni, 1996Q-655 8180150 charcoal charcoal EN Early Neolithic 9120220 Godwin and Willis, 1962

    Database references: Reingruber and Thissen, 2004; Bhner, 2006.

    413B. Weninger et al. / Quaternary Research 66 (2006) 401420

    Argissa Magoula/central Greece

    The tell mound of Argissa Magoula is situated in the plainsof Thessaly (39.66N, 22.33E) on the edge of a terrace, whichis partly cut away by the river Peneios, with regular annualfloodings. Excavations in this major Early Neolithic site wereperformed in 1958 by V. Miloji (1962), who defined thelowest layers as pre-pottery, partly due to the microlithiccharacter of the obsidian tools, and partly due to the (supposed)absence of pottery in the final 30 cm of a small cut. However,although Miloji (1962) himself emphasises that sherds werefound in all levels, he invests considerable effort in demonstrat-ing that the pottery finds from the lowest levels must have beenreworked, i.e., derive from higher levels. In addition, many ofthe 14C-ages (Fig. 5, Table 8) appear to be old. By modernreasoning, the data have such high scatter in relation to thesample stratigraphy that the entire series would appearmeaningless, perhaps with one or the other exception e.g. thesample GrN-4145: 750090 14C yr BP which was processed ona burnt post. This post may correspond to a tree cut at some timeduring the 8200 cal yr BP event. But, we must emphasise, all14C-ages given in Table 8 derive from the same few squaremeters of a thoroughly disturbed excavation area (e.g. Miloji,1962: Plan IV). Nevertheless, even today, many authors believe

    Table 8Argissa Magoula (Greece)

    Lab code 14C age (BP) Material Site Locus General Pe

    UCLA-1657E 6700130 bone spit 28b Early NeolH-889 6820120 charcoal 8/9, Pit Alpha (?),

    Posthole in PitMiddle Ne

    GrN-4145 750090 charcoal 8, 28b, Burnt Post Early Neol

    H-894-3081 7520100 n.d. 9, Pit Early NeolH-896-3082 7740100 n.d. E11, pit Early NeolH-889-3080 7760100 n.d. 8/9, Pit Alpha (?) Early NeolUCLA-1657D 799095 bone n.d. Early NeolUCLA-1657A 8130100 bone n.d. Early Neol

    Database references: Reingruber and Thissen, 2004; Bhner, 2006.

    that this (wide) distribution of (highly questionable) 14C-measurements (Table 8) may be used to date a pre-pottery phaseof the Neolithic in Greece. This hypothesis has been thoroughlydismanteled, independent of the 14C-ages, by a re-analysis ofthe site stratigraphy (Reingruber, 2002, 2004).

    Achilleion/Thessaly

    Due to its long stratigraphy and extensive 14C-sequence,Achilleion is one of the most important tell settlements forprehistoric research in Greece. The site is situated at 39,26 Nand 22,42 E in the flood-plains of Northeastern Thessaly. Firstexcavations were carried out by D. Theocharis in 1962 andcontinued 19731974 in joint research with M.Gimbutas(Gimbutas et al., 1989). One of the explicit aims of theseexcavations was to test the existence of a pre-pottery phase ofthe Neolithic in Greece, as had been postulated by V. Milojion the basis of excavations at Argissa Magoula. An exception-ally large number of 14C-dates are available, which cover theentire stratigraphy in a highly consistent manner (Fig. 5,Table 9).

    At Achilleion we have an unusually complete sequence ofstratified settlements with four major architectural phases IIV(identified by large letters e.g. I, II) and a variety of subphases

    riod Comments Cal age (cal BP) Reference

    ithic I Early Ceramic 7580100 Milojic, 1973olithic Preceramic 7690110 Milojic, 1965

    ithic I Early Ceramic 830080 Vogel and Waterbolk,1972

    ithic I Preceramic? 832090 Coleman, 1992ithic I Preceramic? 8550100 Coleman, 1992ithic I or II Preceramic? 8580120 Coleman, 1992ithic I Preceramic? 8840140 Milojic, 1973ithic I Preceramic? 9070170 Milojic, 1973

  • Table 9Achilleion (Greece)

    Lab code 14C age (BP) Material Site Phase Site Locus Cal age (cal BP) Reference

    GrN-7435 711070 charcoal III b A-1-16 793070 Gimbutas et al., 1989GrN-7434 706070 charcoal III b A-2-14 788070 Gimbutas et al., 1989GrN-7432 7050100 charcoal IV a D-4-2 7870100 Gimbutas et al., 1989GrN-7433 702550 charcoal IV a B-4-18, Pit 787060 Linick, 1977LJ-2940 659080 charcoal B-4-1 0, Firepit 750060 Linick, 1977LJ-3182 692050 charcoal IV a C-1-21, Graben, locus 24/190-200 776060 Linick, 1977LJ-2941 693060 charcoal IV a B-4-15, 17, 18, Abfallgrube, four n1, sq. c/15 i 777070 Linick, 1977UCLA-1882A 6930155 charcoal IV a D-4-2, Post hole , IIIl 7780140 Gimbutas et al., 1989LJ-2943 696080 charcoal IV a A-1-10, Herdstelle 780090 Linick, 1977P-2125 696090 charcoal IV a B-4-13, Pit 780090 Lawn, 1975LJ-3203 699070 charcoal IV a D-4-19, Graben 783080 Linick, 1977LJ-2944 702050 charcoal IV a B-4-18, Grube 786060 Linick, 1977LJ-3202 7020100 charcoal IV a C-4-9, carre K-9, Floor of circular construction 7840100 Linick, 1977LJ-3200 703080 charcoal IV a D-2-11, Firepit 785080 Linick, 1977P-2130 7080100 charcoal III b D-2-17, roof beam 7900100 Lawn, 1975P-2124 709090 charcoal III b A-2-14, Oven 791090 Lawn, 1975P-2122 711090 charcoal III b B-2-17 793090 Lawn, 1975LJ-3327 712060 charcoal III b A-4-21, Fireplace 794060 Linick, 1977P-2121 718090 charcoal III b B-2-1 6, remplissage de la pice 441 8020100 Lawn, 1975UCLA-1896B 7180155 n.d. III b A-1-13 8010160 Gimbutas et al., 1989LJ-2942 720050 charcoal III b A-2/3-15, 16 804060 Linick, 1977LJ-3201 721090 charcoal II b D-2-19 'carbonised lens' , 2F-12.2045 805090 Linick, 1977LJ-3181 724050 charcoal II b D-2-22, context id LJ-3180, fosse gypse n3 807070 Linick, 1977UCLA-1882B 7260155 n.d. Ib B-1-31, III 8100150 Gimbutas et al., 1989P-2117 727080 charcoal II a A-1-26 809080 Lawn, 1975P-2128 727080 charcoal Combination two different samples

    tsq.A,D2-4,lev.8 und D3 lev.8H-11.2121 (Korb)809080 Lawn, 1975

    LJ-3325 728050 charcoal II a B-5-20, 21 810060 Linick, 1977UCLA-1896E 7280100 n.d. III b A-3-14 8110100 Gimbutas et al., 1989LJ-3186 729050 charcoal II a B-5-24, locus 22/120-130 810060 Linick, 1977LJ-3326 729080 charcoal II a A-2-22 811080 Linick, 1977GrN-7436 729570 ? II a A-1-21 811070 Gimbutas et al., 1989LJ-3328 730050 charcoal II a A-1-16 811060 Lawn, 1975LJ-3184 732050 charcoal I b A-2-14 812060 Linick, 1977UCLA-1896C 7330100 n.d. II b D-4-2 8160120 Gimbutas et al., 1989P-2120 734070 charcoal II b B-4-18, Pit 8170100 Lawn, 1975LJ-3329 736050 charcoal I b B-4-1 0, Firepit 818090 Linick, 1977GrN-7438 739045 ? I b C-1-21, Graben, locus 24/190200 824060 Linick, 1977P-2123 745080 charcoal III b B-4-15, 17, 18, Abfallgrube, four n1, sq. c/15 i 827080 Lawn, 1975P-2123? 745478 n.d. D-4-2, Post hole, IIIl 828080 Lawn, 1975UCLA-1896A 7460175 n.d. I a A-1-10, Fireplace 8260170 Gimbutas et al., 1989P-2118 747080 charcoal I a B-4-13, Pit 828080 Lawn, 1975LJ-4449 7490150 charcoal I a D-4-19, Graben 8290140 Gimbutas et al., 1989LJ-3180 755060 charcoal II b B-4-18, Pit 835060 Linick, 1977

    Database references: Reingruber and Thissen, 2004; Bhner, 2006.

    414 B. Weninger et al. / Quaternary Research 66 (2006) 401420

    (identified by small letters a, b, c, etc.). The phases andsubphases are defined by pits, pit-houses, houses with stonebasements, courtyards, open fireplaces, closed ovens, andworking areas. According to the pottery finds, the settlementcovers the entire Early Neolithic (Phase IaFrhkeramikum;Phases IbIIbProto-Sesklo) as well as the classical (middleNeolithic) Sesklo-Period (phases IIIaIVb).

    Pottery is already established in the earliest layers, atbedrock. The dense sequence of 14C-ages begins ca. 8250 cal yrBP, and this date would either correspond to phase Ia (Gimbutaset al., 1989) or to phase Ib (Perls, 2001). Allowing for thedating of old wood, in both cases we have strong radiocarbonevidence for a begin of the settlement sometime during the8200 cal yr BP event (Fig. 5). This absolute date on the pottery

    sequence of Achilleion is of major importance for all studies ofthe Neolithisation of Greece and South-East Europe. Accordingto Gimbutas et al. (1989), the earliest phase of Achilleion (Ia)contains fine, red polished ceramics, and no painted pottery, sothat an initial pure monochrome phase may be comprehensible.

    Red monochrome pottery

    The existence of this early ceramic phase of the earlyNeolithic has been established for other sites in Thessaly(Gediki, Soufli, Argissa, Sesklo), as well as for Elateia (Table10) in Central Greece, and may well represent the veryearliest phase of the Neolithic to be found on the open sites(tell-mounds) of Central Greece (Wijnen, 1981; Alram-Stern,

  • Table 10Elateia (Greece)

    Lab code 14C age (BP) Material Site Locus General Period Pottery Cal age(cal BP)

    Reference

    GrN-2454 637080 humic fractionof GrN-3502

    Trench 1, Floor at 2.30 m Middle Neolithic Earliest paintedPottery (MN)

    730090 Vogel andWaterbolk, 1963

    GrN-3502 7040130 charcoal Trench 1, Floor at 2.30 m Middle Neolithic Earliest paintedPottery (MN)

    7860120 Vogel andWaterbolk, 1963

    GrN-3041 7190100 charcoal Trench 2, Floor at 2.55 m Early Neolithic Monochrome 8030100 Vogel andWaterbolk, 1963

    GrN-3037 736090 charcoal Trench 3, Bothros at 2.55 m Early Neolithic Monochrome 8180110 Vogel andWaterbolk, 1963

    GrN-2973 748070 charcoal Trench 1, 3.10 m Early Neolithic Monochrome 829070 Vogel andWaterbolk, 1963

    GrN-2933 824075 charcoal Trench 1, 1.55 m Late Neolithic LN Pottery 9230120 Vogel andWaterbolk, 1963

    GrN-3039 8240110 charcoal Trench 1, Floor at 2.0 m Middle Neolithic Earliest paintedPottery (MN)

    9230150 Vogel andWaterbolk, 1963

    Database references: Reingruber and Thissen, 2004; Bhner, 2006.

    415B. Weninger et al. / Quaternary Research 66 (2006) 401420

    2004). What complicates the issue, however, is that redmonochrome pottery not only appears at the begin of theNeolithic, but also in later phases, and the different fabrics areoften difficult to distinguish (Schubert, 1999). Such classifi-cation problems apply to the red monochrome fabrics notonly in Thessaly and Central Greece, but also in theneighbouring regions of Macedonia and Bulgaria (personalcommunication J. Aslanis and J. Bojadziev, 2004). A furthercomplication is that, at a large number of early Neolithic sites,the red monochrome fabrics appear from the beginningtogether with early red-on-white painted pottery (Thessaly) orelse associated with white-on-red painted wares (Macedonia).This makes the stratigraphic sequence at Achilleion all themore important, since here we have the unique situation thatphase Ia represents one of the earliest Neolithic settlements inGreece, and radiocarbon dates are at least available for thefollowing phase Ib with early pattern-painted ceramics(Alram-Stern, 1996).

    Finally, let us take a glimpse at the Neolithic in Bulgaria,where the earliest farming communities are also known to haveproduced red monochrome pottery. This has become one majorfocus of recent archaeological research. The Neolithic chron-ology in Bulgaria is based on a comparatively large and well-documented 14C-database for the Neolithic (Grsdorf andBojadiev, 1996). Up to now, the earliest phase of the Neolithicis radiocarbon dated at only one site, that is Poljanica-Platoto(Todorova, 1989). As shown in Figure 5, the four availabledates consistently fall into the time interval expected for the8200 cal yr BP event. This is no trivial result, since all four datesfrom Poljanica-Platoto (Table 11) were processed on the bulk

    Table 11Poljanica Platoto (Bulgaria)

    Lab code 14C age (BP) Material Site Phase

    Bln-1521 714060 sherds bulk organic content Monochrome NeolithicBln-1613A 727560 sherds bulk organic content Monochrome NeolithicBln-1613 738060 sherds bulk organic content Monochrome NeolithicBln-1571 753560 sherds bulk organic content Monochrome Neolithic

    Database references: Reingruber and Thissen, 2004; Bhner, 2006.

    organic temper of potsherds (red monochrome), and maytherefore be expected to be prone to contamination by ad-mixtures of old carbon. We accept the validity of these dates, forthe time being, until more is known about the temporal andgeographic distribution of the red monochrome pottery. Anumber of recent and therefore still partly unpublished ex-cavations in Bulgaria show that the (early) red monochromewares have an unexpectedly wide distribution, ranging from NEBulgaria (Koprivec/Biala, a 3-phased site, excavations by I.Vajsov and V. Popov (Todorova, 2003), through NW Bulgaria(Ochoden/Vraza, excavations 20032004, directed by G.Ganecovski), as well as in the Strymon valley (Krajnici/Kjustendil, excavations by S. Tschochadjiev). Excavations atKovaevo/Blagoevgrad (Demoule and Lichardus-Itten, 1994,1998) also demonstrate the introduction of red monochromepottery in the earliest phase of the Neolithic of the Strymonvalley. These sites all date significantly earlier (ca. 300 yr) thanKaranovo I (Thrace) and are likely, together with Hoca eme,Achilleon Ia, and Sesklo Ia, to represent the earliest farmingcommunities in Europe (Table 12).

    Future research

    This is not the place to address, in detail, the widespectrum of archaeological questions that arise when westudy the possibility that the introduction of early farminginto South-East Europe may have been at least partly climate-induced, if not altogether climate triggered. But we wouldlike to add a few comments on possible directions for futureresearch.

    Site Locus Cal age (cal BP) Reference

    Horizon I, Qu. 153, 0,4 m 795060 Grsdorf and Bojadiev, 1996Horizon I, Qu. 153, 0,4 m 809060 Grsdorf and Bojadiev, 1996Horizon I, Qu. 153, 0,4 m 819070 Grsdorf and Bojadiev, 1996Horizon I, Qu. 49, 0,40 m 834050 Grsdorf and Bojadiev, 1996

  • Table 12Sesklo

    Lab code 14C age (BP) Material Site Locus General Period Cal age (cal BP) Reference

    P-1676 631784 organic sol 568126 MN 7240100 Lawn, 1973P-1672 650485 organic sol 6879 MN IIIB 741080 Lawn, 1973P-1675 669487 charcoal sol 68156 MN 757070 Lawn, 1973P-1677 6741103 charcoal MN IIIB 760090 Lawn, 1973P-1674 696492 charcoal sol 68132 MN 781090 Lawn, 1973P-1680 730093 charcoal sq.B1,depth 4.10/4.20 m first sherds Initial Neolithic 8130100 Lawn, 1973P-1678 742778 charcoal trench 63,W,68.98 EN I 825080 Lawn, 1973P-1768 742778 charcoal sol 6898 63W Neo. 825080 Lawn, 1973P-1682 748372 charcoal sq.B depth 4.32 m, end of preceramic Initial Neolithic 829070 Lawn, 1973P-1679 761183 charcoal Depth 3.88 m, 63.122 EN I 843080 Lawn, 1973GrN-16845 756025 charcoal basal EN I EN I 838020 Reingruber and Thissen, 2004GrN-16844 753060 charcoal deep sounding EN I 832070 Reingruber and Thissen, 2004GrN-16841 752030 charcoal floor EN I 836030 Reingruber and Thissen, 2004GrN-16846 740050 charcoal trench 2 EN I 825060 Reingruber and Thissen, 2004GrN-16842 725025 charcoal roof beam EN II/III 808060 Reingruber and Thissen, 2004GrN-16843 711070 charcoal burnt deposit EN III 793070 Reingruber and Thissen, 2004P-1681 775597 charcoal 63.124B,sq.1 to XXX, end of preceramic Initial Neolithic 8570110 Lawn, 1973

    Database references: Reingruber and Thissen, 2004; Bhner, 2006.

    416 B. Weninger et al. / Quaternary Research 66 (2006) 401420

    One key question, it appears to us, is how to draw mean-ingful and conclusive parallels between modern and prehistoriccommunities. Particularly relevant to our considerations of theconsequences of the 8200 cal yr BP event upon Neolithiccommunities living in the semi-arid areas of the Near East arethe observations made by the German ethnologist Gerd Spittler,set out in two major studies (Spittler, 1989a,b). Here we areoffered a precise documentation of the reactions of the semi-nomadic Kel Ewey-Tuareg of Ar in Niger to recurring periodsof drought and famine in the 20th century (Spittler, 1989a,b).While it is difficult to draw any direct comparisons between theactual reactions of the Kel Ewey and the potential experiencesof Neolithic communities, what we can surely deduce from theworks of Spittler is the wide existing range of possible reactionsto drought, including e.g. transhumance, enhanced mobility,and many different modes of risk dispersion.

    Table 13Mersin-Yumuktepe

    Lab code 14C age (BP) Material General Period

    Rome-958 503060 wheat Latest ChalcolithicRome-805 536080 charcoal Latest ChalcolithicRome-602 594070 charcoal Middle ChalcolithicRome-1010 667570 charcoal Late NeolithicRome-809 698080 charcoal Late NeolithicR-1345 701075 charcoal Late NeolithicRome-806 703090 charcoal Late NeolithicRome-956 709070 charcoal Middle NeolithicRome-957 710070 charcoal Middle NeolithicRome-807 716080 charcoal Middle NeolithicR-1226 728070 charcoal Middle NeolithicRome-808 738080 charcoal Middle NeolithicRome-1011 754575 charcoal Early NeolithicR-1343 764080 charcoal Early NeolithicR-1344 775080 charcoal Early NeolithicRome-734 779080 charcoal Early NeolithicRome-467 792090 charcoal Early NeolithicW-617 7950250 charcoal

    Database references: Thissen et al., 2004; Bhner, 2006.

    The second major key to any future research is to identifyone or more archaeological sites on which it is possible to studythe reactions of the prehistoric communities in situ, i.e. sites thatwere not deserted (which would leave us with correspondinglybiased (one-sided) data), but instead continuously occupiedthroughout the time of the 8200 cal yr BP event. We know oftwo good candidates for such studies, that is Mersin-Yumuktepe(SE-Turkey) and Tell Sabi Abyad (N Syria).

    At the site of Mersin-Yumuktepe (36.78 N, 34.60 E), on theCilician coast of southern Turkey, recent archaeologicalexcavations have yielded evidence for a possibly (brief) hiatusin settlement activity between the archaeological layers XXVIandXXV (after Garstang, 1953) dating to around 8200 cal yr BP.To judge by the spread of radiocarbon dates for these layers(Table 13), we have the impression that this hiatus if it is real must have been quite brief (i.e. within 14C-dating limits),

    Site Phase Cal age (cal BP) Reference

    XIIB 578090 Caneva, 1999XIIB 6140110 Caneva, 1999XVI 678090 Caneva, 1999XXV 755060 Caneva, 1999XXV 782090 Caneva, 1999XXV 784080 Caneva, 1999XXV 785090 Caneva, 1999XXVI 791070 Caneva, 1999XXVI 792070 Caneva, 1999XXVI 800090 Caneva, 1999XXVI 810070 Caneva, personal communicationXXVI 8200110 Caneva, 1999XXX 833080 Caneva, 1999XXX 846070 Caneva, personal communicationXXX 854080 Caneva, personal communicationXXX 8600110 Caneva, 1999XXXIII 8790140 Caneva, 1999XXXIII, Base 8860310 Rubin and Alexander, 1960

  • 417B. Weninger et al. / Quaternary Research 66 (2006) 401420

    perhaps 100 yr. Interestingly, it corresponds to the transitionfrom the Middle to Late Neolithic phases of Caneva's amendedNeolithic chronology of the site (Caneva, 1999). Presently, itremains inconclusive as to whether this hiatus (a thick series offine horizontal ashy layers) represents a break in all settlementactivities, or whether we are in fact witnessing processesconnected with an internal reorganisation of the site. It is at anyrate remarkable that following the possible hiatus, the LateNeolithic phase of the excavated area is characterised by a clearchange in its function, with the focus now moving from thedomestic sphere to more agricultural activities, includingstorage. This development becomes increasingly evident inthe following layer XXIV with its numerous silo constructions.Remarkably, parallels are also attested at the site of Tell SabiAbyad (36.40 N, 38.99 E) in the Balikh Valley of northernSyria. Here too, evidence from recent excavations has shownthat at around 8200 cal yr BP there was a shift in settlementactivity from the western to the eastern side of the site.Furthermore, in the period following the 8200 cal yr BP event,during the so called Transitional phase prior to the onset ofEarly Halaf, there appears to have been an increased emphasison storage, as evidenced by the extensive multi-roomedstorehouses found in the Transitional levels of Operation I,and in the introduction of seals and sealings (Akkermans et al.,2006).

    Altogether, as most archaeologists involved in Neolithicstudies would likely agree, we may conclude that a major key toany successful research would be the reproducible classificationand description, accurate and complete mapping, as well asprecise radiocarbon dating of the Neolithic pottery in all givenstudy regions e.g. the early red monochrome wares of South-East Europe and the Halaf pottery for the Near East. As far aswe can judge from the presently best-dated site of Achilleion/Thessaly, in South-East Europe the development from redmonochrome to pattern painting can hardly have taken morethan one or two generations i.e.

  • 418 B. Weninger et al. / Quaternary Research 66 (2006) 401420

    their meaning vis-a-vis the causal mechanisms for migrationindicated by the 8200 cal yr BP aridity scenario. The farmerswould be forced to migrate, essentially immediately and withfew alternatives, if they wished to survive yet another year ofcrop failures and encroaching famine.

    Evidence for sudden population relocation is not unusual inthe Eastern Mediterranean. It was witnessed long before the8200 cal yr BP event in the southern Levant at the end of theMiddle Pre-Pottery Neolithic B (MPPNB), when all of Palestineand the Jordan Valley were suddenly abandoned ca. 9450 cal yrBP, with the populations moving up onto the Jordanian plateau(Rollefson, 1987). Due to the major drop in the availability ofarchaeological charcoals dating to the interval 9450 and8950 cal yr BP in Turkey (Fig. 3), our extended compilationof 14C-data now indicates that similar processes may indeedhave acted simultaneously in Turkey. However, we have arguedpreviously that such migration processes could well be causedby over-population and over-stress on local ecological habitats.Despite this caution and indeed largely motivated by the quiteexceptional magnitude of the 8200 cal yr BP climate event inthe present paper we nevertheless consider it necessary to placesome enhanced emphasis on the likelihood of a primary climaticbackground to many of the observed socio-cultural processes.

    We therefore propose the extension of previous Neolithisa-tion models, whereby the rapid spread of early farming toSouth-East Europe can be most plausibly understood as adirect and immediate reaction to abrupt climate forcing. Thespread of early farming to South East Europe was extremelyrapid and entirely synchronous with the catastrophic collapseof the ice dome above Hudson Bay at 8200 cal yr BP, manythousands of miles away. We conclude that the abrupt climateswitch 8200 cal yr BP caused some very significant,irreversible, and unexpectedly rapid changes to the contem-porary social, economic and religious lifestyle in large parts ofWestern Asia and South-East Europe.

    Acknowledgments

    Radiocarbon data were generously made available throughthe on-line radiocarbon databases compiled by Utz Bhner(Kln), Maryanne Newton (Cornell), Laurens Thissen(Amsterdam), and Agathe Reingruber (Istanbul). NumericData from Crag Cave (Ireland) are by courtesy of FrankMcDermott. Thanks are due to the reviewers for valuableadvice.

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