climate futures for tasmania
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Climate Futures for Tasmania. Prospects, Impacts and Information for Adaptation Options. Tas Sustainable Yields – 24 July 08 Nathan Bindoff. Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre. Our Starting Point. Climate change exists. Greenhouse gas emissions a key driver. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Climate Futures for Tasmania
Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre
Prospects, Impacts and Information for Adaptation Options
Tas Sustainable Yields – 24 July 08Nathan Bindoff
ACE CRC Forum, 30 June 08 2
Our Starting Point
Climate change exists.
Greenhouse gas emissions a key driver.
Changes will have impacts.
Impacts are felt locally.
ACE CRC Forum, 30 June 08 3
The Project
ACE CRC in consultation with others
Externally funded, consortium of funders
3-year project
Multiple climate projections to 2100, multiple models, multiple runs
Build on earlier work- Hydro Tasmania
Use CCAM with improvements
Longitude
Latit
ude
144°E 145°E 146°E 147°E 148°E 149°E44°S
43°S
42°S
41°S
40°S
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Arthur's Lake
Great Lake
Trevallyn Dam
Great Lake
Trevallyn Dam
ACE CRC Forum, 30 June 08 4
Special Elements
Highly collaborative project
Diverse focus – 4 areas of research
Strong communication and consultation element
Focus on stakeholders and end users needs
Modelling outputs freely available to everybody
ACE CRC Forum, 30 June 08 5
Project Component Research Providers & Liaison Primary End Users GroupsStakeholders
1. Fine-scale climate projections ACE CRC, CSIRO, TPAC, BoM Research Components 2-4
2. Water and Catchments Hydro Tasmania, DPIW, ACE CRC Hydro Tasmania, Hobart Water, Esk Water, Cradle Coast Water, LGAT, Landscape Logic,
3. General Climate Impacts TIAR, DPIW, CSIRO, BoM, GA, ACE CRC TFGA, LGAT, Wine Industry Tasmania, Fruitgrowers Tasmania, Aurora Energy, Transend, Roaring 40s, SES, DPIW, DIER
4. Extreme Events SES, ACE CRC, CSIRO, BoM, GA SES, LGAT, Aurora Energy, Transend, Roaring 40s, DIER
Project Management Antarctic Climate & Ecosystem Cooperative Research Centre
Project Partners
ACE CRC Forum, 30 June 08 6
Key Issues for End Users
Water policy and legislation
Water management and infrastructure
Power Generation (reservoirs, winds)
Power Distribution (heat waves)
Emergency planning (bushfires, floods)
Protection of high value assets (tourism)
Impacts on power and water dependent industry
Agriculture (crops, wine, other horticulture, disease)
Sea level surges (from wind changes)
ACE CRC Forum, 30 June 08 7
Research Components
Fine Scale Climate
Projections
ACE CRC Forum, 30 June 08 8
Project Resources
$7.5 million over three years (cash + in-kind)
5 new postdoctoral fellows, 1 liaison officer & project management team
Engagement of skills and expertise from the consortia members, including Tasmanian State Departments and business enterprises
Data Management (TPAC Digital Library)
Strong links with other projects CERF funded projects SEACI Tasmanian Sustainable Yields Project (TasSY)
ACE CRC Forum, 30 June 08 9
Project Outcomes
Information for adaptation.
All modelling data and materials made publicly available.
Industries, government and community informed on likely future climate.
Capacity to plan appropriate, targeted, efficient adaptation strategies.
Understanding key risks and vulnerabilities.
Capacity to take maximum advantage of likely changes in climate.
ACE CRC Forum, 30 June 08 10
Component Leaders
ModellingTony Hirst (CSIRO)Nathan Bindoff (TPAC)
Water and Catchments Bryce Graham (DPIW)Fiona Ling (Hydro Tasmania)
General Climate ImpactsDavid McNeill & Stephen Wilson (TIAR)Ian Barnes-Keoghan (BoM)
Extreme EventsBob Cechet (GA) Kathy McInnes (CSIRO)
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Funding Partners
Funding Partners
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Research Organisations
Research Organisations
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Putting it all togetherFunders
(Funding Contracts)
DPIW – Michele Moseley Dept Primary Industries and
Water
Hydro Tasmania– Andrew Catchpole
SES – Chris Beattie
ACE CRC
CERF -Commonwealth Environment Research
Facilities (DEWH&A)
ACE CRCDr Kathy McInnes
CSIRO CMARDr Tony Hirst
Utas TPAC – Prof Nathan Bindoff
BoM– Ian Barnes- Keoghan
Utas TIAR Dr Stephen WilsonProf David McNeil
Hydro Tasmania– Kane Thornton
DPIW – Bryce Graham
Project Reference Group
End-User Representatives
“Virtual Network”
Partners’ Committee
Chair: Nathan BindoffResearch Organisations
(In-kind)
ACE CRC Board
Dr Katherine Woodthorpe (Chair)
End User Stakeholder Groups/End User Focus Groups
Determining User Needs and Road Testing end user products
CLIMATE FUTURESProject Leader: Prof Nathan Bindoff
Project Manager: Christie le GoyLiaison & Extension: Suzie Gaynor
General Climate Impacts
Fine Scale Climate Projections
Other research components
Water and Catchments
Hobart Water
Esk Water
Cradle Coast Water
Landscape Logic
Hydro Tasmania
Extreme Events
Wine Industry Tasmania
Fruit Growers Tasmania
Tasmania Farmers & Graziers Association
Dept Primary Industries & Water (DPIW)
LGAT
Aurora Energy
Transend
Roaring 40s
Dept Infrastructure, Energy & Resources
(DIER)
SES
Bruce Mapstone ACE CRC CEO
Geoscience Australia Dr Bob Cechet
Advisory Committee
Chair: Bruce Mapstone
Climate Futures for Tasmania
Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre
Prospects, Impacts and Information for Adaptation Options
Thank you
ACE CRC Forum, 30 June 08 15
Full-time ACE CRC Staff
General Climate Impacts AnalystsGreg Holz (agriculture)Michael Grose
Extreme Events AnalystChris White
Modelling Analystto be appointed
Water and Catchments Analystto be appointed
Extension and LiaisonSuzie Gaynor
ACE CRC Forum, 30 June 08 16
Project Management
GovernanceACE CRC CEO – Bruce MapstoneACE CRC Business Manager – Kate Maloney
ManagementProject Leader - Professor Nathan BindoffProject Management - Christie le Goy
ACE CRC Forum, 30 June 08 17
Global Climate Models - windows into future(s)
GCMs are coarse scale
Community impacts often fine scale
CSIRO developed fine-scale method
This project provides fine scale information for Tasmania.
Modelling Concepts
Longitude
Latit
ude
144°E 145°E 146°E 147°E 148°E 149°E44°S
43°S
42°S
41°S
40°S
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
110°E 120°E 130°E 140°E 150°E 160°E50°S
45°S
40°S
35°S
30°S
25°S
20°S
15°S
10°S
ACE CRC Forum, 30 June 08 18
Fine Scale Climate Projections
What is downscaling?
CCAM – Cubic Conformal Atmosphere Model
Validation phase
IPCC – models are used
Interpolation of pre-existing IPCC scenarios
ACE CRC Forum, 30 June 08 19
ACE CRC Forum, 30 June 08 20
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Overlap with TasSY
• One scenario (of A2,A1B,B1), 6 models (three in first year), to 1960 to 2100, progressive to 2100. (Hydro project)
• Questions – Which scenario for TasSY (A2, A1B, B1)?– To 2030, or 2035?– Is 60km resolution sufficient for TasSY?– Time evolving?– How many models?
ACE CRC Forum, 30 June 08 22
Compute resources
• Required resources (45days*24 cpu per 15km experiment, ~60 days*8cpu per 60km experiment)
• TPAC provides 128 processors, Disk 40 Terrabytes, Tape Silo (100Terrabytes) capacity ~50%
• Quote– 112 compute nodes, two tape drives, 100 Terrayte store,
$125k– 112 compute nodes, two tape drives, $100k – Three weeks for delivery after receipt of purchase order
• APAC, expansion will occur in November, “couldn’t purchase hours at the moment even if we could pay”
ACE CRC Forum, 30 June 08 23
How to get alignment
ACE CRC Forum, 30 June 08 24
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