climate impact company global weather highlights...avoidance! iod/enso outlooks from australia...
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Climate Impact Company
Global Weather HighlightsWednesday, August 4, 2021
Driving Natural
Gas Prices
Up to $4.13 earlier today.
$4.19 was peak occurring in late
July.
This week’s trend has been price
rise.
Hot PJM forecasts the catalyst.
GFS is on its own with the extreme
heat.
Today’s 12Z GFS is likely a market-
mover.
Sensible Weather
Forecast (Using
DCA)
Using data point DCA, gauging
the extreme heat risk vs. natural
gas price potential can be
estimated.
Threshold for DCA is 97F which
occurred with $4.19 price peak.
This time around, GFS forecasts
100F (or higher).
ECM ENS is in 92-95F range.
A large difference!
Repeat of 97F is reasonable; 100F
is unlikely.
North Atlantic
Tropics
August SLOWLY becomes active.
But! September is the BIG month!
Currently, ECM ENS 15-day rainfall
forecast indicates activity stays in
tropics.
Short-term Rainfall
Forecast for U.S.
Heavy rains over Continental
Divide past few days breaks.
Remainder of that rain drifts
across North-central/Midwest U.S.
through weekend.
Not much rain Canadian
Prairies/North-central U.S.
Western Corn Belt receives
beneficial rain but accumulates
over 5-day period and not
everyone receives the rain.
Heaviest rain this week on East
Coast.
Models Disagree on Medium-range
Forecast…Drier GFS is most likely!
Warm-to-Hot Regime Returns Peaking in
6-10 Day Period
Elsewhere: South America Chill Watch!
Southeast Europe/Turkey Drought
Continues; Western Russia/Black Sea Wet
Australia Climate Forecast: Drought
Avoidance!
IOD/ENSO Outlooks From Australia
Bureau of Meteorology