climate impacts on washington state

Upload: lwvwa

Post on 03-Jun-2018

220 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

  • 8/12/2019 Climate Impacts on Washington State

    1/36

    Climate Impacts on Washington State:An Overview of Key Risks

    Climate Science in thePublic Interest

    Amy Snover, PhD

    Director, Climate Impacts Group Assistant Dean, Applied ResearchUniversity of Washington

    WA Senate Energy, Environment & Telecommunications Committee28 January 2014

  • 8/12/2019 Climate Impacts on Washington State

    2/36

    Addressing Climate Change

    Mitigation Adaptation

  • 8/12/2019 Climate Impacts on Washington State

    3/36

    The UW Climate Impacts GroupScience for climate resilience

    Catalyzing the development &application of climate science indecision making

    Scientific synthesis and assessment

    Identifying emerging climateimpacts, risks, and vulnerabilities

    Locally-specific climate changedata for planning purposes

    Adaptation planning expertise

  • 8/12/2019 Climate Impacts on Washington State

    4/36

    Climate mattersExpectations about climate are embedded in our economy, infrastructure,and management of natural systems.

    Significant changes in PNW climate are expected

    These changes are a result of rising greenhouse gas emissions.

    Climate change will affect many important systems in Washington

    Affected systems include water resources, forests, species and ecosystems,oceans and coasts, infrastructure, agriculture, and human health.

    Adaptation can reduce climate risks

    We have the knowledge and tools to begin adapting to climate impacts.

    Key Conclusions

  • 8/12/2019 Climate Impacts on Washington State

    5/36

    Climate expectations

  • 8/12/2019 Climate Impacts on Washington State

    6/36

    Washington and the Pacific Northwest have experiencedlong-term warming, a lengthening of the frost-freeseason, and more frequent nighttime heat waves.

    Observed Trends: PNW Climate

    Average annual temperature has increased +1.3 F, 1885-2011

    Frost-free season has lengthened 35 days (+6 days), 1885-2011

    No discernible long-term trend in precipitation

  • 8/12/2019 Climate Impacts on Washington State

    7/36

    Spring snowpack varies year-to-year but declined ~25% fromearly/mid-20th century through early 2100s

    Most Washington glaciers declined during the 20 th century

    Spring peak streamflow shifted earlier by up to 20 days, dependingon location (1948-2002)

    Observed Trends: PNW Hydrology

    Long-term changes in snow, ice, and streamflows reflectthe influence of warming.

  • 8/12/2019 Climate Impacts on Washington State

    8/36

    Sea level is increasing on average, although results vary by location

    Declining sea level found in the few areas where tectonic upliftcurrently exceeds the rate of global sea level rise observed to date

    Observed Trends: Regional Sea Level

    Sea level is rising along some parts of the Washingtoncoastline and falling in others.

  • 8/12/2019 Climate Impacts on Washington State

    9/36

    Observed Trends: Oceans

    The coastal ocean is acidifying and some local inshorecoastal waters are warming.

    Ocean acidity in Washingtons marine waters has increased +10% to+40% since 1800

    Significant warming in coastal surface ocean temperatures observedin the Strait of Georgia and west of Vancouver Island (+1.4F, 1970-2005)

    No significant warming of coastal surface ocean temperaturesoffshore of North America, 1900-2008

  • 8/12/2019 Climate Impacts on Washington State

    10/36

    Rapid WarmingProjected

    Figure source: Climate Impacts Group, based on projections used in IPCC 2013;2050 projections from Mote et al. 2013

    2050s(relative to 1950-1999)

    Low emissions

    (RCP 4.5)

    +4.3 F

    (2.0-6.7

    F)High emissions

    (RCP 8.5)+5.8 F

    (3.1-8.5 F)

    Projected Change in Average Annual PNW Temperature(relative to 1950-1999 average)

    All scenarios indicatewarming in the 21 st century

  • 8/12/2019 Climate Impacts on Washington State

    11/36

    Modest increases in average annual precipitation projected in mostscenarios.

    Seasonal patterns reinforced.Wetter fall, winter, and spring; driersummers likely.

    More frequent heavy rainfall eventsexpected.

    Wetter an d Drier ConditionsProjected

  • 8/12/2019 Climate Impacts on Washington State

    12/36

    Three Major Threats

    As identified in Climate Change in the Northwest: Implications for Our Landscapes, Waters, and Communities (Dalton et al. 2013)

  • 8/12/2019 Climate Impacts on Washington State

    13/36

    Water: Too much & too little

    As identified in Climate Change in the Northwest: Implications for Our Landscapes, Waters, and Communities (Dalton et al. 2013)

  • 8/12/2019 Climate Impacts on Washington State

    14/36

    All Scenarios Indicate Less Snow

    -44% M e d i u m

    E m i s s i o n s

    S c e n a r i o

    -29% -65%

    Apr. 1 Snow Water Equivalent1916-2006

    Why? Spring snowpack is projected to decline as more winter precipitation falls as rain rather than snow,especially in warmer mid-elevation basins. Also, snowpack will melt earlier with warmer spring temperatures.

    Elsner et al. 2010

    s s s

  • 8/12/2019 Climate Impacts on Washington State

    15/36

    winterrains

    summersnowmelt

    springpeak

    October April September

    Shifting Streamflows Yakima Basin

    Naturalized flows (without the influence of dams); Elsner et al. 2010

  • 8/12/2019 Climate Impacts on Washington State

    16/36

    October April September

    Yakima Basin

    Shifting Streamflows 2020s

    Naturalized flows (without the influence of dams); Elsner et al. 2010

  • 8/12/2019 Climate Impacts on Washington State

    17/36

    October April September

    Yakima Basin

    Shifting Streamflows 2040s

    Naturalized flows (without the influence of dams); Elsner et al. 2010

  • 8/12/2019 Climate Impacts on Washington State

    18/36

    October April September

    Yakima Basin

    Shifting Streamflows 2080s

    Naturalized flows (without the influence of dams); Elsner et al. 2010

    f

  • 8/12/2019 Climate Impacts on Washington State

    19/36

    Decreased summer hydropowerproductionSummer production falls -10% by the 2020s, -15% by the2040s, -20% by the 2080s, while summer air conditioningdemands increase up to 400% (vs. 1917-2006)

    Decreased irrigation supplyreliability and increased demandRisk of water short year (75% level of prorating) in theYakima increases from 14% (1970-2005) to 32% (2020s),36% (2040s), and 77% (2080s) for current demand

    Reliability of municipal watersupplies varies

    Analyses by central Puget Sound water suppliers findsufficient supply through at least 2050. Impacts on othersuppliers and groundwater supplies unknown.

    Implications for Water Management: Water Supply

    li i f

  • 8/12/2019 Climate Impacts on Washington State

    20/36

    Implications for Water Management: F l o o d i n g

    Increased Flood Risk West of theCascades

    Warming increases flood riskin many western WA basins.

    For example, in the Skagit (forthe 2040s):

    the historical 100-year event

    becomes a 22-year event the historical 30-year event

    becomes an 7-year event

  • 8/12/2019 Climate Impacts on Washington State

    21/36

    Forests: fire, insects & drought

    As identified in Climate Change in the Northwest: Implications for Our Landscapes, Waters, and Communities (Dalton et al. 2013)

    I li i f F M

  • 8/12/2019 Climate Impacts on Washington State

    22/36

    Increased wildfire risk Area burned by fire in the Columbia River Basin isprojected to double by 2020s, triple by 2040s, x5 by2080s (relative to median for 1916-2006).

    Increased risk of insect outbreaksIncreased risk of mountain pine beetle outbreaks in drierforests will exacerbate fire risk.

    Ecological, economic, and humanimpactsLong-term transformation of forest landscapes.Management challenges and air quality impacts,particularly at the urban/wildland interface.

    Implications for Forest Management

  • 8/12/2019 Climate Impacts on Washington State

    23/36

    Projected suitability changes: Lodgepole pine

    Data: Rehfeldt et al.

    Littell et al. 2010

  • 8/12/2019 Climate Impacts on Washington State

    24/36

    Littell et al. 2010

    Projected suitability changes: Lodgepole pine

    Data: Rehfeldt et al.

  • 8/12/2019 Climate Impacts on Washington State

    25/36

    Sea level rise, flooding, erosion

    As identified in Climate Change in the Northwest: Implications for Our Landscapes, Waters, and Communities (Dalton et al. 2013)

  • 8/12/2019 Climate Impacts on Washington State

    26/36

    Sea Level Rise Projectedin All Scenarios by 2100

    Projected Range, Seatt le Relative to 2000 (NRC 2012)

    2030 -1.5 to +8.8 inches

    2050 - 1.0 to +18.8 inches

    2100 +3.9 to +56.3 inches

    Implications for Coastal Management

  • 8/12/2019 Climate Impacts on Washington State

    27/36

    Loss of land to rising seasMore than 140,000 acres of coastal lands lie within 3.3

    feet elevation of high tide in WA & OR, exposing publicand private property, infrastructure, and habitat to climateimpacts.

    Multiple factors compound impacts Sea level rise + river flooding + high tide + coastal storms+ subsidence = erosion + landslides + flooding +permanent inundation +

    Risks to property, public safety,coastal ecosystemsPrivate and public property, urban and transportationinfrastructure viability and functioning, toxics mobilization,

    ecological resources, habitat restoration

    Implications for Coastal Management

  • 8/12/2019 Climate Impacts on Washington State

    28/36

    Low-lying Areas at Risk

    Olympia Seattle

  • 8/12/2019 Climate Impacts on Washington State

    29/36

    Agriculture is fairly adaptable,although some crops andlocations are more vulnerableWA state agriculture is projected to be affected bywarming temperatures, rising carbon dioxide, andchanges in water availability.

    Health impacts stem from a wide

    range of climate change impactsLikely to see increased rates of heat related illnesses(including heat exhaustion and stroke); respiratoryillness (e.g., allergies, asthma); vector-, water-, andfood-borne diseases; and mental health stress.

    Additional Risk Areas:Agriculture and Human Health

  • 8/12/2019 Climate Impacts on Washington State

    30/36

    What is Ocean Acidification?

    Sarah R. Cooley ([email protected])

    Carbon Dioxide(CO2)

    Climate change

    Ocean acidification

    The ocean absorbs ~ 25 % ofcarbon dioxide emitted byindustry and deforestation.

  • 8/12/2019 Climate Impacts on Washington State

    31/36

    What is Ocean Acidification?

    This creates an acid,which lowers pH &decreases carbonatelevels in the ocean.

    Sarah R. Cooley ([email protected])

    Carbon Dioxide(CO 2)

    Climatechange

    Ocean

    acidification

    d f

  • 8/12/2019 Climate Impacts on Washington State

    32/36

    Ocean acidity is increasingOcean acidity has increased 30% and projected to increase100-150% by 2100. The primary global cause is increasingcarbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Local factors (upwelling,nutrients, organic carbon) contribute to acidification in WA.

    Increased mortality for shell-formingorganismsOcean conditions are making it more difficult for shellfishand other organisms that use calcium carbonate(calcifiers) to make hard body parts. More than 30% ofPuget Sounds marine species are calcifiers.

    Marine food webs impactedKey species in the marine food web (e.g., pteropods) areaffected by acidification. Many commercially andecologically important species affected.

    O c e a n A c i d i f i c a t i o n

  • 8/12/2019 Climate Impacts on Washington State

    33/36

    Climate matters

    Significant changes in PNW climate are expected

    Climate change will affect many important systems in Washington

    Adaptation can reduce climate risks & Washington is uniquely

    poised to do so

    Key Conclusions

  • 8/12/2019 Climate Impacts on Washington State

    34/36

    Can we achieve our goals in a changingclimate?

    What is necessary to reduce risks associatedwith a changing climate?

    How do we avoid creating new risks ?

    What opportunities should we prepare for?

    Building Climate Resilience Through Adaptation: Ask the Climate Questions

  • 8/12/2019 Climate Impacts on Washington State

    35/36

    National leaders need to get seriousabout slowing climate change. But thecountry must also plan to adapt to awarming world, anticipating not just thehistorically unusual, but also thehistorically unprecedented.

    Washington Post Editorial Board, October, 31 2012In the wake of Hurricane Sandy

  • 8/12/2019 Climate Impacts on Washington State

    36/36

    UW Climate Impacts Groupwww.cses.washington.edu/cig

    Climate Science in thePublic Interest