climate induced future changes of temperature and...
TRANSCRIPT
Climate Induced future changes of temperature Climate Induced future changes of temperature and precipitation over Bangladeshand precipitation over Bangladesh
A.K.M. Saiful IslamInstitute of Water and Flood Management (IWFM)Bangladesh University of Engineer and Technology (BUET)
“4th International Symposium of BJSPSAA 2012 on “Global Climate Change: Impacts, vulnerability and adaptation”
Outline
• Global Warming, Green house effect and Climate Change.
• Global Climate Change Modeling and Scenarios.
• Regional Climate Change Modeling.
• Change of future Temperature and Rainfall.
• Potential Impact of Climate Change on Flood Inundation, Cyclone, Storm Surge, Drought, Agriculture and Food Production, Fisheries, Ecosystem, Human Health.
Green House Effect
• Co2 and some minor radioactively active gases are (known as greenhouse gases) acted as a partial blanket for the thermal radiation from the surface which enables it to be substantially warmer than it would otherwise be, analogous to the effect of a greenhouse
Global temperature and Greenhouse gases
Temperature variation past 1,000 years
CO2 from the measuring station at Mauna Loa (Hawaii) is located at an altitude of 3400 meters
Increasing trends of CO2
Trends of increase of Temperature
Cracks in Ice bars
Observed Ice melting
• Images gathered from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program of NASA show the minimum Arctic sea ice concentration 1979 (left) and 2003 (right).
1979 2003
Source: http://www.worldwithoutwinter.com/melting%20ice%20caps.jpg
Prediction of Global WarmingFigure shows the distribution of warming during the late 21st century predicted by the HadCM3 climate model. The average warming predicted by this model is 3.0 °C.
Predicted Arctic sea Ice
Arctic Sea Ice in 2040
Arctic Sea Ice in 2000
Results from community climate system models
Prediction of Sea level rise
Climate Change Predictions
General Circulation Model (GCM)• General Circulation Models (GCMs) are a class of computer-driven
models for weather forecasting, understanding climate and projecting climate change, where they are commonly called Global Climate Models.
• Three dimensional GCM's discretise the equations for fluid motion and energy transfer and integrate these forward in time. They also contain parameterizations for processes - such as convection - that occur on scales too small to be resolved directly.
• Atmospheric GCMs (AGCMs) model the atmosphere and impose sea surface temperatures. Coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs (AOGCMs, e.g. HadCM3, EdGCM, GFDL CM2.X, ARPEGE-Climate) combine the two models.
Schematization of 3D GCM
Regional Climate modeling• An RCM is a tool to add small-scale detailed information of future
climate change to the large-scale projections of a GCM. RCMs are full climate models and as such are physically based and represent most or all of the processes, interactions and feedbacks between the climate system components that are represented in GCMs.
• They take coarse resolution information from a GCM and then develop temporally and spatially fine-scale information consistent with this using their higher resolution representation of the climate system.
• The typical resolution of an RCM is about 50 km in the horizontal and GCMs are typically 500~300 km
PRECIS: Regional Climate change modeling in Bangladesh
• PRECIS regional climate modeling is now running in Climate change study cell at IWFM,BUET.
• PRECIS is a fully 3D dimensional atmospheric ocean coupled model.
• Uses LBC data from Hadley Center GCM (HadCM3).
• LBC data available for baseline, A2, B2, A1B scenarios up to 2100.
• Daily and hourly predictions is available.
Topography of Experiment Domain
Zoom over BangladeshSimulation Domain = 88 x 88 Resolution = 0.44 degree
Change of future temperature
Change of Annual Cyclone of Maximum and Minimum Temperature
68
10121416182022242628303234
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecTe
mpe
ratu
re in
ºC
1961 to 1990 2011 to 2040 2041 to 2070 2071 to 2100
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Tem
pera
ture
in ºC
1961 to 1990 2011 to 2040 2041 to 2070 2071 to 2100
Change of Seasonal Maximum and Minimum Temperature
Maximum Temp. Minimum Temp.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
DJF MAM JJAS ON
Tem
pera
ture
in 0 C
2011 to 2040 2041 to 2070 2071 to 2100
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
DJF MAM JJAS ON
Tem
pera
ture
in C
2011 to 2040 2041 to 2070 2071 to 2100
Change of Number of Summer days when temperature is > 250C
2020s 2080s2050s
Change of Number of Cold nights when temperature is < 200C
2020s 2080s2050s
Change of future rainfall
Change of seasonal Rainfall
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
DJF MAM JJAS ON
1980s
2020s2050s
2080s
Max. 23%
Change of future Monsoon Rainfall
Difference Rainfall in 2020s from 1970s Difference Rainfall in 2080s from 1970s
Consecutive Wet Days
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
18 23 28 33 38
Prob
abili
ty
CWD (Consecutive Wet Days)
1970s
2020s
2050s
2080s
Daily Intensity of Rainfall
00.05
0.10.15
0.20.25
0.30.35
0.40.45
0.5
7.5 9.5 11.5 13.5 15.5
Prob
abili
ty
Daily Intensity (mm/rainy days)
1970s
2020s
2050s
2080s
No of days when rainfall > 20mm
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
0.16
6 11 16 21 26
Prob
abili
ty
Days of rainfall, rt > 20mm (days)
1970s
2020s
2050s
2080s
Impact of Climate Change
Possible Climate Change Impact for Bangladesh
• Increase of intensity and duration of natural disasterssuch as floods, Cyclones and Storm Surges.
• Increase of moisture stress (droughts) due to erratic precipitation
• Salinity intrusion due to Sea Level Rise• Inundation due to sea level rise leading towards
“Climate Refugees”• Effect on health and livelihood of coastal people. • Effect on Bio-diversity, Ecology & Sundarbans. • Hampered Food Security & Social Security.
Temperature Data Analysis of last 60 years (1947-2007)
Mean daily temperature of Bangladesh has increased with a rate of 1.03 0C per century
y = 0.0103x + 25.428R2 = 0.2996
23
24
25
26
27
1948
1953
1958
1963
1968
1973
1978
1983
1988
1993
1998
2003
2008
(c)
Increase of Costal Inundation due to Sea Level Rise and Intense Storm
Source: Murshed, M., Ahmed,Z., Khan, Z.H., and Hasan, M.M. (2010) Vulnerability of Coatal Region due to Storm Surge Inundation in Changing Climate, Proceedings of the International MIKE by DHI Conference 2010, Denmark
SMRC, 2005 IWM, 2010
Change of Flood Inundation area
Source: IWM study for WARPO (2001)
Impact of Crop Yield
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Rajbari Chapai Nawabganj
Satkhira Sunamganj
2020s
2050s
2080s
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Rajbari Chapai Nawabganj
Satkhira Sunamganj
2020s
2050s
2080s
Boro Rice T. Aman Rice
Source: Mondal et al. (2012) Changes in the Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Temperature, Rainfall, Sunshine and Humidity in Bangladesh, Final Report, CDMP.
Responsibility ?
Global Emission
Per capita CO2 emission
Per capita emission
Bangladesh1990 – 0.1 ton2009 – 0.36 ton
Facing Climate Change • National Awareness building
– Capacity Building through Training – Innovative Research for knowledge generations
• Mitigation – Reduce Co2 emission, Use Green technology– Use of Alternative Energy sources – Solar, Wind etc.
• Adaptation –– Build Shelters, Rise Embankments & Polders, Roads, Houses– Salinity tolerant crops, Afforestation, Alternative livelihood, improve
warning system, migrations • Global and National Awareness & Justice
– Kyoto Protocol, COP, – BCCSAP…. Raise our voice !
Thank you