Climate Knowledge for Communities (CLICOMM)

Jaakko Helminena*, Silvia Gaianib, Ansa Helminena, Antonio Leaoc, Erkki Sutinena

aSchool of Computing, University of Eastern Finland, PO Box 111, FI-80101 Joensuu, Finland

bDepartment of Agricultural and Food Sciences, University of Bologna, Via Zamboni 33, I-40126 Bologna, Italy

cMinistry of Science and Technology, Avenida Patrice Lumumba n.o 770, Maputo, Mozambique

Presentation Edutech & UNITAR Symposium – Digital storytelling, crowdsourcing and science education for international research

and training, August 29, 2013, Joensuu, Finland

Background and Motivation

• The 20th century was the century of analysis based on new discoveries and exploring biological systems in ever increasing detail (from discovery of DNA to mapping of the human genome), creating new disciplines in the process

• The 21st century is rapidly becoming the century of synthesis with much greater emphasis on holistic approaches and creating new insights at the interfaces of disciplines (transdisciplinary)

Quality of information

• Uncertain – no or incomplete knowledge of distributions

• Risk – variability present, but information can be presented in terms of distributions and probabilities

• Certain – fixed known values and no variability

Probability – a dualistic concept

• Probability as a measure of observed frequencies or as a theoretical concept (objective probability and calculus of probability)

• Probability as a measure of the degree of belief (subjective probability)

• Uncertainty vs probabilities – decision making

Probability as an essential concept for scientific climate services

• Most climate data can be expressed as distributions

• Consequently the user can estimate probabilities which correspond to the chosen threshold values

• This gives a natural forum to the climate service and its user for their mutual co-operation

Crowdsourcing (Merriam – Webster Dictionary)

• Practice of obtaining needed services, ideas or content by soliciting contributions from a large group of people

• The problem is outsourced to an undefined public rather than to a specific, named group (crowdsourcing ≠ outsourcing)

HOLISTIC CLIMATE SERVICES

1. Engagement and integration to the total system

2. Climate knowledge3. Participatory and transdisciplinary working

mode4. Both grassroot (bottom-up) and top-down

approaches needed in this order5. Development by iteration

Climate knowledge

• Maturity to use climate information in a constructively critical way within a holistic context

• Life-long process• Challenge for education

Principal steps for holistic scientific climate services

Salience: Mutually perceived relevance of the information

Credibility: Mutually perceived technical quality of the information

Legitimacy: Mutually perceived objectivity of the process by which the information is shared (ownership)

04/08/2023 Ilmatieteen laitos / PowerPoint ohjeistus

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Towards a Typology of Risks, Baselines, and Responses(adapted from the LWCVC Address by Dr. J. Sachs)

Risks Baseline Responses

Modeling and Monitoring

Hydrological: Household capital Vulnerability reduction: droughts Community capital forecasting and early floods Infrastructure warning buffers, e.g. mudslides Government reserves financial aquifers forex water storageHeat Stress credit lines sea breaks

human health Natural capital ecosystems crop yields water storage InsuranceDisease irrigation DiversificationPests crop yields Relief and response

Storms Hazards risks MigrationSea level coastal

seismictopography

Climate services and decision making

• Social structure• Local culture• Local environment• Communication• Readiness for disaster management• Level of livelihood• Level of self-sufficiency

Modern irrigation and fertilization system

Modern farming equipment

X I L E M B E N E

C H I H A Q U E L A N E

IMPLEMENTATION DELPHI PANEL (IDP)

• Broad Expert Information Process (BEIP)• Consists of four stages:

1 Encountering stage2 Opening stage3 Discourse stage4 Concluding stage

• Focus on commitment and implementation options

CLASSES OF EXPERTS1. Experts in science (invariances)2. Decision-makers (allocation of

resources and funds)3. Synthetizers (balanced overall

view)

G E N E R A L A D V I C E S• Make your plan and book the appointments

well in advance• During your spare time hang around actively

in the local area• Listen to the stories of the local people• Sudden events can reveal a lot more about the

local life than planned interviews• Grey information can be important

ENCOUNTERING STAGE (1)

Communities

IDP/IG

Initial interviews

(IDP/II)

ENCOUNTERING STAGE (2)

IDP/IIIDP

Management Group (IDP/MG)

IDP Expert Group (IDP/EG)

OPENING STAGE

IDP/IG

IDP/EG

Deep interviews of the experts

(IDP/DI)

DISCOURSE STAGE

Discourse through

workshops and direct

discussions (IDP/DISC)

IDP/IG

IDP/DI

IDP/MG

CONCLUDING STAGE

IDP/DISC

IDP/MG

Report, dissemination

and implementation

(IDP/RDI)

I M P L E M E N T A T I O N (1)

• General Theory of Consistency (GTC)• Non-learning cultivator vs. learning cultivator• Field experiments in each of the five

communities implemented in two parcels (≈ 0.5 ha), one fertilized and one non-fertilized

• The cultivated variety may vary with the community

I M P L E M E N T A T I O N (2)

• Gender and age equality • Learning skills• Access to all generated information

including climate service products by appropriate mobile phones

• Learning cultivators are trained to use the innovated practices

I M P L E M E N T A T I O N (3)

• The field experiments during the latter half of the rain season 2013-2014 in January-March 2014 and during the first half of the rain season 2014-2015 in October-December 2014

I M P L E M E N T A T I O N (4)

• The planning and implementation of the relocation project is still under preparation but will be focused on a limited part of one community.

• Collection and data mining of stories plays an important role in the development as well as in evaluation

C O M M U N I C A T I O N1. In its essence a fundamental and penetrative

concept2. Technically a resilient network of smart mobile

phones and appropriate software (smart phones) to be developed (ICT experts)

3. Education4. Focal points in the communities5. Active two-way communication (e.g. advice in

extreme weather events, phenology etc.)

E V A L U A T I O N

• The degree of commitment and the earnings measured by agreed IDP utility functions (IDP/UFc,e) prior to and after the experiments

• The degree of commitment evaluated by agreed appropriate step variables and IDP/UFc

• The earnings evaluated by IDP/Ufe

• Data mining findings on collected stories will complement the results under IDP/UFc

Thank you!