climate modeling at gfdl - nasageophysical fluid dynamics laboratory princeton, new jersey climate...
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GeophysicalFluidDynamicsLaboratory
Princeton, New Jersey
Climate Modeling at GFDL
Leo Donner
GFDL/NOAA, Princeton University
CERES Science Team, Princeton, 4 May 2005
GeophysicalFluidDynamicsLaboratory
Princeton, New Jersey
GFDL Climate Modeling
• Climate modeling in the context of earth-system modeling
• Current status of GFDL atmospheric andcoupled modeling
• Recent research on atmospheric dy-cores
• Early earth-system model results
GeophysicalFluidDynamicsLaboratory
Princeton, New Jersey
Land physicsand hydrology
What is an Earth System Model?
Ocean GCM
Atmospheric GCM
Land physicsand hydrology
Ocean ecology andbiogeochemistry
Atmospheric GCM
Climate Model
Tracer transport and chemistry
Ocean GCM
Dynamic vegetationand land use
Earth SystemModel
from John Dunne, GFDL
GeophysicalFluidDynamicsLaboratory
Princeton, New Jerseyfrom Mike Winton, GFDL
GeophysicalFluidDynamicsLaboratory
Princeton, New Jersey
Ocean component of the CM2 models•Higher resolution (~1 degree, 50 levels)•Explicit free surface (real freshwaterfluxes)•Tripolar grid (Arctic throughflow)•Anisotropic viscosity (realistic Equatorialcurrents)•Horizontally varying eddy mixing(distribution of convection)•Explicit mixed layer.•Low tropical diffusivity (equatorialundercurrent, no deep tropicalupwelling)
Overturning in densityspace shows pole-to-pole connection
Some key improvements
from Anand Gnanadesikan, GFDL
GeophysicalFluidDynamicsLaboratory
Princeton, New Jersey
Land Model: LM2
• 3 water stores: snow, root zone, groundwater
• 18 soil temperature levels to 6-m depth• Stomatal control of evaportranspiration• Surface parameters functions of 8 soil and 8
vegetation types• Latent heat storage in soil
GeophysicalFluidDynamicsLaboratory
Princeton, New Jersey
Atmospheric GCM: AM2 (GFDLGAMDT, 2004, J. Clim.)
• B-grid, 2° lat x 2.5° lon; 24 levels; model top ~ 40km
• SW radiation (Freidenreich and Ramaswamy,1999, JGR)
• LW radiation (Schwarzkopf and Ramaswamy,1999, JGR)
• Liquid cloud radiative properties from Slingo(1989, JAS)
GeophysicalFluidDynamicsLaboratory
Princeton, New Jersey
Atmospheric GCM: AM2 (GFDLGAMDT, 2004, J. Clim.)
• Ice cloud radiative properties from Fu andLiou (1993, JAS)
• Sulfate, hydrophobic and hydrophiliccarbon, dust, and sea salt from MOZARTchemical transport model
• Prognostic cloud liquid, cloud ice, andfraction (Tiedtke, 1993, JAS)
GeophysicalFluidDynamicsLaboratory
Princeton, New Jersey
Atmospheric GCM: AM2 (GFDLGAMDT, 2004, J. Clim.)
• Bulk cloud microphysics (Rotstayn, 1997,QJRMS)
• Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert convection(Moorthi and Suarez, 1992, MWR) withlow-entrainment deep clouds suppressed(Tokioka et al., 1988, J. Met. Soc. Japan)and diffusive momentum transport
GeophysicalFluidDynamicsLaboratory
Princeton, New Jersey
Atmospheric GCM: AM2 (GFDLGAMDT, 2004, J. Clim.)
• Convective boundary layers with K-profileand prescribed entrainment (Lock et al.,2000, MWR)
• Enhanced mixing in stable PBL
• Orographic gravity-wave drag (Stern andPierrehumbert, 1988, AMS NWP Conf.Proc.)
GeophysicalFluidDynamicsLaboratory
Princeton, New Jersey
GFDL CoupledClimate ModelsCM2.0 (B grid)CM2.1 (FV)
Delworth et al. (2005, J. Clim.)
GeophysicalFluidDynamicsLaboratory
Princeton, New Jersey
Mean Fields in AM2/CM2 with B-grid dynamical core
GeophysicalFluidDynamicsLaboratory
Princeton, New Jersey
Annual, Zonal-Mean Temperature Diff AM2-NCEP/NCAR Analysis (K)
GFDL GAMDT (2004, J. Clim.)
GeophysicalFluidDynamicsLaboratory
Princeton, New Jersey
Coupled
Atmosphere
Temp Diff (K)CM2-NCEP
Temp Diff (K)AM2-NCEP
Delworth et al.,2005, J. Clim.
GeophysicalFluidDynamicsLaboratory
Princeton, New Jersey
SFC Temp CM2-Jones
SFC Temp AM2-CRU (2K contour)
GFDL GAMDT (2004, J. Clim.)
Delworth et al. (2005, J. Clim.)
GeophysicalFluidDynamicsLaboratory
Princeton, New Jersey
Zonal, Annual-Mean Zonal Wind Diff (m/s) AM2-NCEP/NCAR Analysis
GFDL GAMDT(2004, J. Clim.)
GeophysicalFluidDynamicsLaboratory
Princeton, New Jersey
Coupled
Atmosphere
Zonal WindDiff, AM/CM-NCEP(m/s)
Delworth et al. (2005, J. Clim.)
GeophysicalFluidDynamicsLaboratory
Princeton, New Jersey
GFDL GAMDT(2004, J. Clim.)
GeophysicalFluidDynamicsLaboratory
Princeton, New Jersey
Coupled
Coupled-Xie and Arkin
Atmosphere-Xie and Arkin
Precipitation(mm/day)
Delworth et al.(2005, J. Clim.)
GeophysicalFluidDynamicsLaboratory
Princeton, New Jersey
GFDL GAMDT(2004, J. Clim.)
GeophysicalFluidDynamicsLaboratory
Princeton, New Jersey
GeophysicalFluidDynamicsLaboratory
Princeton, New Jersey
GFDL GAMDT(2004, J. Clim.)
TOA
GeophysicalFluidDynamicsLaboratory
Princeton, New Jersey
Coupled
Atmosphere
CM/AM-ERBE(W m-2 )
Delworth et al. (2005, J. Clim.)
Annual-Mean TOA Absorbed Short Wave
GeophysicalFluidDynamicsLaboratory
Princeton, New Jersey
GeophysicalFluidDynamicsLaboratory
Princeton, New Jersey
GFDL GAMDT(2004, J. Clim.)
GeophysicalFluidDynamicsLaboratory
Princeton, New Jersey
Variability in AM2/CM2 with B-grid dynamical core
GeophysicalFluidDynamicsLaboratory
Princeton, New Jersey
Tropical energy budget variability
from EricWilcox
GeophysicalFluidDynamicsLaboratory
Princeton, New Jersey
Tropical energy budget variability
from EricWilcox
GeophysicalFluidDynamicsLaboratory
Princeton, New Jersey
GFDL GAMDT (2004, J. Clim.)
NINO3 Precipitation Regressions
GeophysicalFluidDynamicsLaboratory
Princeton, New Jersey
Standard Deviation Annual-Mean Surface Temperature (K)
HadCRU
CM2
GeophysicalFluidDynamicsLaboratory
Princeton, New Jersey
GFDL GAMDT (2004, J. Clim.)
SLP (contours) and Surface Temperature (shading) Anomalies Associatedwith 1-hPa Increase in Index of the Northern Annular Mode
-.4 .4
GeophysicalFluidDynamicsLaboratory
Princeton, New Jersey
Anomalies of SLP (contours)and surface temp (shading)associated with 1 std dev ofNAM index
Delworth et al. (2005, J. Clim.)
GeophysicalFluidDynamicsLaboratory
Princeton, New Jersey
GFDL GAMDT(2004, J. Clim.)
MJO(lagged30-90 dayfilteredprecipitaiton)
GeophysicalFluidDynamicsLaboratory
Princeton, New Jersey
Madden-Julian Oscillation in Coupled Model
from Ken Sperber, PCMDI
GeophysicalFluidDynamicsLaboratory
Princeton, New Jersey
Dynamical Core
Recent experiments have compared the B-griddynamical core (Arakawa and Lamb, 1977,Meth. Comp. Phys.) and finite-volume (FV)dynamical core (Lin, 2004, MWR). Substantialchanges in surface wind stresses and sea-surface temperatures resulted. CM2.1 iscoupled model with FV dy-core.
GeophysicalFluidDynamicsLaboratory
Princeton, New Jersey
Difference in Annual-Mean Zonal Wind Stress, FV-B grid (N m-2)
Delworth et al. (2005, J. Clim.)
GeophysicalFluidDynamicsLaboratory
Princeton, New Jersey
CM 2.0/2.1 Annual-Mean SST-Reynolds SST (K)
Delworth et al. (2005, J. Clim.)
B grid
FV
GeophysicalFluidDynamicsLaboratory
Princeton, New Jersey
Annual Mean Temp Diff, AM/CM-NCEP (K)B grid FVCoupled Coupled
Atmosphere AtmosphereDelworth et al. (2005, J. Clim.)
GeophysicalFluidDynamicsLaboratory
Princeton, New Jersey
Annual-Mean Zonal-Wind Diff, AM/CM – NCEP (m/s)B grid FV
Coupled Coupled
Atmosphere AtmosphereDelworth et al. (2005, J. Clim.)
GeophysicalFluidDynamicsLaboratory
Princeton, New Jersey
AAnnual-Mean TOA Absorbed SW Diff, AM/CM –ERBE (W m-2)B grid FVCoupled Coupled
Atmosphere AtmosphereDelworth et al. (2005, J. Clim.)
GeophysicalFluidDynamicsLaboratory
Princeton, New Jersey
Annual-Mean TOA Absorbed SW Diff, CM-AM (W m-2)
B grid
FV
Delworth et al. (2005, J. Clim.)
GeophysicalFluidDynamicsLaboratory
Princeton, New Jersey
Standard Deviation CM Annual-Mean Sfc Temperature (K)
HadCRUT2v
B grid
FV
Delworth et al.(2005, J. Clim.)
GeophysicalFluidDynamicsLaboratory
Princeton, New Jersey
Anomalies of SLP (contours)and surface temperature (shading)
associated with 1 std devin NAM index
Delworth et al. (2005, J. Clim.)
B grid
FV
GeophysicalFluidDynamicsLaboratory
Princeton, New Jersey
Earth-System Model: Early Results
GeophysicalFluidDynamicsLaboratory
Princeton, New Jersey
Carbon in the Earth System Model
Atmosphere560 PgC (280 ppmv) + FF
Ocean BGC Land BGC
37400 Pg C + FF 2000 Pg C
~90 PgC ~60 PgC
TurnoverTime100-103 yr
TurnoverTime10-1-102 yr
Fossil Fuels TurnoverTime4 yr
…equilibrium takes 103-104 yrsfrom John Dunne
GeophysicalFluidDynamicsLaboratory
Princeton, New Jersey
Ocean Biogeochemical ModelCarbon Oxygen Phosphorus
Nitrogen Iron SiO2 and CaCO3
Dissolved organicmatter cycling
Particle sinkingand respiration
Air-Sea fluxes
Solubility pump
Mineral pump
Loss from systemExample Applications:Framework for hypothesis testing
Assessment of temporal variability
Climate sensitivity and interactionsfrom John Dunne
GeophysicalFluidDynamicsLaboratory
Princeton, New Jersey
Ocean Ecosystem Model
Small Phyto.
Large Phyto.
Protists
Filter Feeder
DOM
Detritus
NewNutrients
Recyclednutrients
FishN2-fix. Phyto.
Example Applications:Framework for hypothesis testing
Assessment of temporal variability
Climate sensitivity and interactionsfrom John Dunne
GeophysicalFluidDynamicsLaboratory
Princeton, New Jersey
Satellite Chlorophyll Comparison
SeaWiFSSatellite
GFDLModel
fromJohn Dunne
GeophysicalFluidDynamicsLaboratory
Princeton, New Jersey
Prototype CO2 Spinup (Year 7)
GeophysicalFluidDynamicsLaboratory
Princeton, New Jersey
Summary
• GFDL current coupled climate model is beingemployed to study intra-seasonal to inter-decadalvariability.
• Recent atmospheric research has emphasized dy-core. FV changes wind and ocean stress patternssubstantially.
• Early stages of incorporation of coupled climatemodel in earth-system model are underway.