climate policy
DESCRIPTION
'Climate policy and climate information' is one of the research themes of TU Delft Climate Institute. During the kick-off meeting on March 1st 2012 L. Andrew Bollinger described what kind of research is involved and itsrelevance.TRANSCRIPT
L. Andrew Bollinger
PhD studentInfrastructure Systems & Services DepartmentFaculty of Technology, Policy & ManagementTU Delft
1 March 2012
Climate policy
INCAH
Intervention
Impact
Intervention
Impact
Effective policy?
The challenge of complexity
Complexity
Intervention
Impact
Multi-level relationships
Feedback loops
Nonlinearity
Irrational actors
The EU Emissions Trading Scheme
Image source: Z.H. Feng, et al. Carbon price volatility: Evidence from EU ETS. Applied Energy 88 (2011) 590–598.
- The Wall Street Journal, 2010
• High volatility• Price crashes• Gaming• Windfall profits
Climate policyHow can we bridge the gap between intervention and impact?
?Intervention
Impact
Our approach
1. Socio-technical systems
The European electricity network The European “Facebook” network
Image source: http://www.r-bloggers.com/graphics-and-statistics-the-facebook-map/
1. Socio-technical systems
2. Complex adaptive systems
Emergence of a starling flock
Image source: http://www.amusingplanet.com/2011/11/acrobatic-display-of-starling.html
Our approach
Emergence of a solar PV infrastructure http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lcpBz7qri1U
1. Socio-technical systems
2. Complex adaptive systems3. Agent-based modeling
Modeling the flocking of birds Modeling the transition to a low carbon power sector
Our approach
An example – climate change mitigation policy
The question:Which policies can enable a transition to low carbon electricity generation?
The policies:1. Emissions trading scheme
2. Carbon taxation scheme
3. No intervention
The question:Which carbon policy/ies can enable a transition to low carbon electricity generation?
The policies:1. Emissions trading scheme
2. Carbon taxation scheme
3. No intervention
Results:• Price uncertainty can be a major deterrent to investment in low-carbon
generation technologies• A carbon tax sends a much clearer and more predictable signal to
investors
An example – climate change mitigation policy
An example – infrastructure adaptation to climate change
The question:How can we support the development of climate resilient electricity infrastructures?
(1) De Groot, 2006(2) Wilbanks, et al, 2008(3) Rothstein and Halbig, 2010(4) Bresser, et al, 2005
The question:How can we support the development of climate resilient electricity infrastructures?
An example – climate change adaptation policy
Uncertainty: • Climate change uncertainty• Socio-economic uncertainty• Technological uncertainty• …
The question:How can we support the development of climate resilient electricity infrastructures?
The approach:• Exploratory modeling - expose the modeled system to a large range of
possible futures• Seek robust policies, and policies that hedge against the worst
possible consequences.• Identify sufficient solutions and understand key dynamics, e.g. tipping
points
An example – climate change adaptation policy
The question:How can we combine data from different sources, collaboratively upgrade it and make it openly available?
Collaborative data cultivation
Enipedia.tudelft.nl – a collaborative platform for the cultivation of energy and industry data
Collaboration
• We can’t navigate complexity on our own
Collaboration
• We can’t navigate complexity on our own• We need to bring together data, e.g. about
sea-level rise, extreme weather and infrastructures.
TU Delft Climate Institute
Thank you