climate prediction center (cpc) services, products, partnerships, potential for the pride alaska...
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Climate Prediction Center (CPC)Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Services, Products, Partnerships, Potential Services, Products, Partnerships, Potential
for thefor the
PRIDE Alaska Coastal ClimatologiesPRIDE Alaska Coastal Climatologies
Wind/Wave WorkshopWind/Wave Workshop
Jim LaverJim Laver
August 2-3, 2005August 2-3, 2005
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.govwww.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
CPC Contribution to Climate ServicesCPC Contribution to Climate Services
• Mission: Assess and Predict Mission: Assess and Predict short-term short-term climate variability climate variability
“ “short-termshort-term” = next week, month, season(s), out to 1-year;” = next week, month, season(s), out to 1-year;
and consider the longer term contextand consider the longer term context
• Responsibilities & Scope: Responsibilities & Scope:
Deliver operational climate “nowcasts” and predictionsDeliver operational climate “nowcasts” and predictions
Make them consistent - globally, nationally and regionallyMake them consistent - globally, nationally and regionally
Provide an historical context – with help from NCDCProvide an historical context – with help from NCDC
Improve them!Improve them!
• Vision:Vision: Climate services as reliable and applicable as Climate services as reliable and applicable as
weather servicesweather services
Climate ProductsClimate Products
• Global Environmental Monitoring:Global Environmental Monitoring:
Where: atmosphere, oceans, land, iceWhere: atmosphere, oceans, land, ice
What: temperature, precipitation, circulation, drought, SSTWhat: temperature, precipitation, circulation, drought, SST
Alaska/Arctic parameters?Alaska/Arctic parameters?
• Climate Outlooks:Climate Outlooks:
Where: U. S., U. S. Interests abroad, oceansWhere: U. S., U. S. Interests abroad, oceans
What: temperature & precipitation anomaliesWhat: temperature & precipitation anomalies
hazards, drought, hazards, drought, hurricane season, El Niño/La hurricane season, El Niño/La NiñaNiña
Probabilities of extremes? Storminess? Others for Probabilities of extremes? Storminess? Others for AK?AK?
• CPC is interested in providing real-time monitoring products
• A historical climatology is required for proper historical context
• Focus has been on Temperature & Precipitation; Other Parameters??
Example: explanation of 8-14 day forecast map.Example: explanation of 8-14 day forecast map.
A
N
N
N
N
50% chance A,33% chance N,17% chance B
27% chance A,33% chance N,40% chance B
33.3% chance A,33.3% chance N,33.3% chance B
Week2 Outlook
Improving Services & Products Improving Services & Products Through PartnershipsThrough Partnerships
• National Weather Service:National Weather Service: NCEP centers, regional offices, NCEP centers, regional offices, local offices (WFOs), river forecast centerslocal offices (WFOs), river forecast centers
• NOAA:NOAA: research labs (e.g., Boulder, Princeton, Miami), research labs (e.g., Boulder, Princeton, Miami), applied research funding (Office of Global Programs)applied research funding (Office of Global Programs)
• Inter-Agency:Inter-Agency: USDA (drought, global crops), FEMA (hazards), USDA (drought, global crops), FEMA (hazards), NASA (outlooks; ozone), EPA & DoD (ultraviolet forecasts), NASA (outlooks; ozone), EPA & DoD (ultraviolet forecasts), USAID (humanitarian support), DoE (degree days)USAID (humanitarian support), DoE (degree days)
• Academic & International:Academic & International: universities, international desks, universities, international desks, bi-lateral agreements, World Meteorological Organization, bi-lateral agreements, World Meteorological Organization, Pacific partners, International Research Institute (Columbia U.)Pacific partners, International Research Institute (Columbia U.)
Potential:Potential:Areas of Common Interest?Areas of Common Interest?
• NOAA’s Climate Test Bed – accelerate improvements in NOAA’s Climate Test Bed – accelerate improvements in climate predictions – subseasonal, seasonal, interannual, climate predictions – subseasonal, seasonal, interannual, decadal trends?decadal trends?
• Multi-model dynamical ensemblesMulti-model dynamical ensembles
• Reanalysis Reanalysis Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System, Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System, Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere, Regional, Arctic,…Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere, Regional, Arctic,…
• Assessment of economical benefits of long-range forecastsAssessment of economical benefits of long-range forecasts
• Global ocean monitoring and modeling (GODAS)Global ocean monitoring and modeling (GODAS)
• Describe current state of the climate better - “Nowcasting”Describe current state of the climate better - “Nowcasting”
• New product possibilities ?? - forecasts of opportunity, New product possibilities ?? - forecasts of opportunity, extremes, Week3, Week4, extremes, Week3, Week4, Winds, Waves,Winds, Waves, Storms Storms
Reprocessing and Reanalysis are Essential
Given the continuing improvement in our understanding Given the continuing improvement in our understanding of climate observations and the need for long time of climate observations and the need for long time series, reprocessing is a hallmark of every climate series, reprocessing is a hallmark of every climate observing system. Europe, Japan and the US have observing system. Europe, Japan and the US have ongoing efforts, but risks and limitations abound.ongoing efforts, but risks and limitations abound.
Workshop on Ongoing Analysis of the Climate SystemWorkshop on Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System18-20 August 2003, Boulder, Colorado18-20 August 2003, Boulder, Colorado
National/international coordination National/international coordination is essential to a successful program is essential to a successful program
GEOSS must have an OACS!GEOSS must have an OACS!
Climate ForcingClimate &
EcosystemsObservations &
AnalysisRegional
Decision Support
Predictions &Projections
(includes CPC)
Pro
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Understand Climate Variability and Change to Enhance Society’s Ability to Plan and Understand Climate Variability and Change to Enhance Society’s Ability to Plan and RespondRespond
OUTCOMES
1. A predictive understanding of the global climate system on time scales of weeks to decades with quantified uncertainties sufficient for making informed and reasoned decisions
2. Climate-sensitive sectors and the climate-literate public effectively incorporating NOAA’s climate products into their plans and decisions
NOAA’s Climate Program Matrix and NOAA’s Climate Program Matrix and Relationship to 2005 NOAA Strategic PlanRelationship to 2005 NOAA Strategic Plan