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The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution,

Current Status and Prediction

Update prepared byClimate Prediction Center / NCEP

February 18, 2013

For more information, visit: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml

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Outline• Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions• Monsoon Prediction• Summary• Climatology

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Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days

During the past 90 days, rainfall continues to be slightly above normal over southeastern China, Japan, Malaysia, the Philippines, over much of the maritime Indonesian islands and over western and eastern coastal Australia. However, over southern peninsular India and over southwestern China, rainfall is below normal. Moderate rainfall deficits continue over northern, central and eastern interior Australia away from the east coast.

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Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days

The 30-day precipitation is showing widespread precipitation all over the middle east and across India into eastern China. However, deficits still appear along south eastern China and across north central Australia, while surpluses have emerged along east coast.

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Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days

This past week rainfall was above normal over northern India and Indonesia, but below normal over northern Australia, which was forecast correctly.

Compare the forecast for this past week made by GFS one week ago with the observed.

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Rainfall Time Series over 5x5 lat-lon boxes

The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier.

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Atmospheric Circulation

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NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Weak 1 & Week 2

Week-1

Week-2

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SummaryDuring the past 90 days, rainfall continues to be slightly above normal over southeastern China, Japan, Malaysia, the Philippines, over much of the maritime Indonesian islands and over western and eastern coastal Australia. However, over southern peninsular India and over southwestern China, rainfall is below normal. Moderate rainfall deficits continue over northern, central and eastern interior Australia away from the east coast. The 30-day precipitation is showing widespread precipitation all over the middle east and across India into eastern China. However, deficits still appear along south eastern China and across north central Australia, while surpluses have emerged along east coast.

This past week rainfall was above normal over northern India and Indonesia, but below normal over northern Australia, which was forecast correctly. In the upcoming couple of weeks, the NCEP GFS model is predicting near to below normal rainfall over the broad monsoon region at large, but over Australia, enhanced rainfall is forecast to return in the second week.

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Demise of the Asian MonsoonDemise of the Asian Monsoon

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Onset of the Australian MonsoonOnset of the Australian Monsoon

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ClimatologyClimatology